|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 23, 2012 16:40:21 GMT -8
Yep to the media reveal I guess. I have seen a few early impressions and these iMacs sound stunning. Maybe all the free coverage by being part of this show, will more than compensate for the pause. I'm quite happy with what I saw and heard today. The Mac refresh is dazzling. The iPad mini will be an educational, enterprise and consumer success. The price is fine. wall Street respects profit margins- they'll get over their angst. September quarter is what it is....December begins two quarters of huge growth, domestic and international. Apple should never be a short term play ( I know from painful experience). Look beyond the noise.
|
|
|
Post by johng on Oct 23, 2012 16:48:50 GMT -8
A real puzzler for me today is why they announced the new iMac's when they won't ship until November and December. This will totally stall out existing sales. I don't get the strategy. I want one and can't have one so I am sulking. I have the existing 27" model and can't justify upgrading yet. Announcing them now makes sense in that it stalls the competition, placates the LONG suffering imac Apple fans, and finally it makes it "safer" for the guidance side of things. cheers JohnG
|
|
|
Post by zzmac on Oct 23, 2012 17:05:45 GMT -8
The price of this iPad Mini 1 will drop down when the iPad Mini 2 launches next year. And when the iPad Mini 3 launches in 1-2 years then the Mini 1 will drop again & 2 will become cheaper than 3 (etc...) and then all the price points will be covered while maximizing profits along the way. You have to look down the road a little bit. I think the problem with the pricing has to do with Apple keeping the iPad 2 on the market. If it wouldn't be for the iPad 2, we would be comparing $329 to $499 and not $399. So, the choices would be $329 for a smaller non-retina display iPad or a bigger, retina display iPad for $170 more. IMHO, with only two choices, for most people, it would come down to what size they prefer. Retina or non-retina, most people don't care. The iPad 2 should have been discontinued. Completely agree and I think it would have made a big difference but I am not understanding why they kept it.
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Oct 23, 2012 17:11:58 GMT -8
So the New York Times puts out their story tonight on the mini ... and although the headlines read that they did it to fend off the competition (versus any epiphany of their own - implied) - it does have a positive spin for the most part. But I warn you, they quote Shaw Wu: tinyurl.com/8tda8ls
|
|
|
Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 23, 2012 17:15:10 GMT -8
I'm a little bit of a panic now...over the last few months I set up some conservative spreads, or what I thought were conservative. But now I"m worried about if AAPL misses earnings this week and if I don't have enough time for things to work out. Here are the spreads I've got...any suggestions? All are Bull Call or Bull Put Spreads Feb 600/610 April 660/670 Jan 14 800/900 Does anyone think I should increase my timeframe and push either the February or April out a few quarters? Or am I just panicking now? I will trade you. Heck, even if it moves sideways your Feb are a position I wish I had. Apple is going to add earnings for 2 qtrs, may not be as much as we thought, but still will be adding. worst case 48x13=624. Things are bad and will probably get worse, but they will get better eventually and believe it or not AAPL will get back to a 15 p/e one day. I just don't know when. I am sitting on a lot of 680/700 Jan spreads that need 684 to break even. Who do you think is sweating more, you or me? Cheer up, Mark. Things will be fine. We'll be 700 again before the next earnings call, if not sooner. You saw how with July earnings, which did not even beat the analysts' estimate, we dropped 30 or so points, but then we were at a decent PE and soon took off. This could happen here, except I think we beat the analysts' estimates. And we have the Christmas Q and all the positive uncertainty (as Jason Schwarz likes to say). We're going to be fine.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 23, 2012 17:18:49 GMT -8
Basically, don't hold out until expiration to try to lock in max profit on spreads. Set a target for yourself (mine is now going to be 80% of full value) and sell when you reach that. Then wait for the inevitable quarterly decline and use that powder. Appledoc, I was just referring to his Feb position. I painted a worst case for that position and it still ends up ITM. Pretty safe considering the use of the low P/E. Yes, thanks for taking the time to respond...I think worst case we'll be around $8.00 - $8.50 this quarter and $15 next quarter, still YOY growth.
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Oct 23, 2012 17:19:40 GMT -8
For what it's worth - CNBC is tweeting this out so it may get some press tomorrow. Einhorn has been long AAPL in the past so nothing new but it's nice to know that he agrees with Julian Robertson and has not bailed:
From Einhorn's 3Q letter: At quarter end, largest disclosed long positions were $AAPL, $CI, $GM, gold and $STX
|
|
|
Post by podboy on Oct 23, 2012 17:45:05 GMT -8
Just tweeted: Horace Dediu @asymco "The iPad 2 is cheap. The iPad mini is the same as an iPad 2 but smaller, lighter and cheaper. Therefore the iPad mini is too expensive. " The ipad 2 doesn't have siri, mini does. Also the processor is much better in mini. Can't compare them like apples to apples.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Oct 23, 2012 17:52:33 GMT -8
Announcing them now makes sense in that it stalls the competition, placates the LONG suffering imac Apple fans, and finally it makes it "safer" for the guidance side of things. cheers JohnG The iMac update is "realistic" (16 MP display...nnnnnno) and also fairly strong. Design = just wow. I'll be upgrading, I'm pretty sure. Maybe even a Fusion Drive.
|
|
|
Post by Iceage on Oct 23, 2012 18:00:48 GMT -8
Just tweeted: Horace Dediu @asymco "The iPad 2 is cheap. The iPad mini is the same as an iPad 2 but smaller, lighter and cheaper. Therefore the iPad mini is too expensive. " The ipad 2 doesn't have siri, mini does. Also the processor is much better in mini. Can't compare them like apples to apples. For some people, it's not the price, it's the size factor. He doesn't seem to get it. If I go to McDonald's for single burger but the double is on special at the same price, it might be more value for my $, but that's not what I want.
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Oct 23, 2012 18:04:41 GMT -8
Flash PMI out of China highest in 3 months, might put some support for the overall market.
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Oct 23, 2012 18:19:40 GMT -8
Appledoc, I was just referring to his Feb position. I painted a worst case for that position and it still ends up ITM. Pretty safe considering the use of the low P/E. Yes, thanks for taking the time to respond...I think worst case we'll be around $8.00 - $8.50 this quarter and $15 next quarter, still YOY growth. $15 in 1Q would be an utter disaster. Not going to happen though, so don't worry.
|
|
|
Post by mcharliem on Oct 23, 2012 18:21:28 GMT -8
Has anyone posted about the Surface reviews going live? So far they look pretty negative. 7.0 from the verge and numerous complaints of buggy software and a non-existent ecosystem.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Oct 23, 2012 18:34:08 GMT -8
Flash PMI out of China highest in 3 months, might put some support for the overall market. Record production of Apple devices may have helped a little.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Oct 23, 2012 18:34:44 GMT -8
Uh...Dediu was being sarcastic, I'm quite sure.
|
|
Azuma
New Poster
Posts: 7
|
Post by Azuma on Oct 23, 2012 18:47:45 GMT -8
Just tweeted: Horace Dediu @asymco "The iPad 2 is cheap. The iPad mini is the same as an iPad 2 but smaller, lighter and cheaper. Therefore the iPad mini is too expensive. " The ipad 2 doesn't have siri, mini does. Also the processor is much better in mini. Can't compare them like apples to apples. For some people, it's not the price, it's the size factor. He doesn't seem to get it. If I go to McDonald's for single burger but the double is on special at the same price, it might be more value for my $, but that's not what I want. Strongly agree with your first statement. Tech spec fans usually underestimate the appeal of new compact form factors in computers, music players and tablets to those not living on the bleeding edge. Luckily for AAPL investors, Apple markets its products to a much wider group of consumers than just the nerdy. "He doesn't seem to get it." I took a different meaning from Horace's tweet. You may be right, but I think his remarks are pointing to an inconsistency in complaints about Mini pricing from writers who previously applauded the iPad 2's low price. Isn't he being a bit sarcastic? Horace definitely gets it, oh yes.
|
|
|
Post by Lstream on Oct 23, 2012 18:53:28 GMT -8
Has anyone posted about the Surface reviews going live? So far they look pretty negative. 7.0 from the verge and numerous complaints of buggy software and a non-existent ecosystem. Just read it. If Apple put out tablet software that behaved as badly as the Surface software does, they would be tarred and feathered. Microsoft gets off easy in my opinion, and this still ends up being a pretty sad ass review, for the supposed flagship of their tablet aspirations. p.s. - I am almost certain Horace was being sarcastic.
|
|
JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
|
Post by JDSoCal on Oct 23, 2012 19:13:25 GMT -8
BTW, I was kinda hoping, as Schiller fondled the iMac, that he'd reach over and start touching the screen like a big iPad. Maybe next time. Well, futures are green; that always turns out great.
|
|
JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
|
Post by JDSoCal on Oct 23, 2012 19:17:33 GMT -8
Actually, no, Steve Jobs almost certainly signed off on iPad Mini. Apple's pipeline is longer than a year. Actually,no. Almost certainly isn't the same as most definitely...,or...,according to sources...,or...,just about anything else you can dream up to imply Steve signed off. This misses the point however. What was definitely known I posted. Had Steve been alive he "almost certainly" would have run the clip just to poke some fun at himself. Not enough yucks in the presentation today. No offense, but, bullshit. Which part am I dreaming up? That 1) Apple product pipelines are > one year or 2) Steve Jobs worked on the iPhone 5, but knew nothing about a product released a month after it?
|
|
|
Post by applemuncher on Oct 23, 2012 19:18:18 GMT -8
Hi everyone. Apple announced some fantastic products today. I am excited about them. By the way, this is my first post on the new board. Thanks for setting it up iPad! Now for the serious stuff...I am worried about Q4 and Q1 for the following reasons:
1. Apple is announcing a major product refresh in the third week of October. I have noticed that when Apple says "Shipping in November" or "Shipping in December", you can count on the product shipping the last week, or even the last days, of the month. I am worried about product availability for Q1. Apple had plenty of time to announce these products in early September. A late October product refresh, without ample inventory available for infroduction, is inexcusable. 2. It looks like the iPad Mini has the same case design as the iPhone 5. I am worried that this design will cause supply constraints for the iPad Mini.
3. One of the first things Steve did when he came back to Apple was to simplify the product line. Apple has way too many SKUs now.
4. Every product Apple has announced since Steve passed away has been evolutionary, not revolutionary. I don't even hear any rumors about the new TV product anymore. If it was a real product, to be introduced in Q2, we would have seen info about it by now.
5. The iPhone 5 is a beautiful product. But I still can’t leave my house in the morning, and use my phone for calls and surfing the Internet without recharging. I would have gladly traded some weight and thickness for a much bigger battery.
6. The iPhone 5 was announced several weeks ago and is still constrained. From the folks I speak with in the Apple and Verizon stores, I have not seen a dramatic increase in availability.
7. Did you hear the story about Steve’s experience with an early iPhone prototype? The model he had used a plastic display. It scratched easily when he placed it in his pocket with his keys. He told his design folks that plastic was unacceptable, and it needed to be glass. The engineers said it could not be done. Steve did not accept that and told them to make it happen. The rest is history. I can’t believe Apple would introduce a case for the iPhone 5 that scratches so easily. Steve never would have approved that case. Shoot, a large percentage of these cases can’t even make it off of the assembly line without getting scratched.
Please know that I love Apple. Shoot, I worked for them for eight years. The PE is way too low and the stock should be much higher. But it looks to me like the Apple engine is not running as well as it should right now. I hope I am wrong, but my gut feeling is that Apple will miss the Q4 whisper number and provide guidance below expectations for Q1 due to manufacturing and component availability issues. I hope I am wrong.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 23, 2012 19:19:28 GMT -8
Any idea how low the Volatility Index will drop with AAPL after earnings season? I'm looking to pick up a few call options in my Tax Free Savings Account...they won't let me do spreads, which I much prefer, but the Volatility is so high right now, I don't know if I like Call Options.
|
|
|
Post by Lstream on Oct 23, 2012 19:20:52 GMT -8
Looks like the Surface was at its peak when it was still a brochure. Gizmodo's review is almost painful to read. Looks like the iPad is safe. Cheer up boys and girls.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 23, 2012 19:31:41 GMT -8
Simplify, simplify, simplify. I was wrong about the introduction of a mini. In one way or another we were all wrong, and there's a very good point to be learned there. No matter our own feelings, we (nor anyone else) do not have access to the information that Apple manage does. Because Apple is growing like a well watered/fertilized weed, it is obvious that none of our opinions mean squat. . The problem was substituting some people's opinion in place of other people's facts. Once again, when Gruber and Dalrymple stick their necks out, they are reporting on deep background Apple sources. Anything else is bullshit. How's that for simple? Very good. Now how do we get them to reveal earnings 2 weeks before the call?
|
|
|
Post by applemuncher on Oct 23, 2012 19:34:56 GMT -8
The problem was substituting some people's opinion in place of other people's facts. Once again, when Gruber and Dalrymple stick their necks out, they are reporting on deep background Apple sources. Anything else is bullshit. How's that for simple? Very good. Now how do we get them to reveal earnings 2 weeks before the call? Get Apple to use Google's PR company. ;D
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Oct 23, 2012 19:35:34 GMT -8
Steve _never_ "owned up to" statements denouncing/marginalizing products that Apple ended up making. Who needs iPods with video? Who needs tablets? Who needs smaller tablets? Either Steve was misdirecting the entire time, or as Tim Cook said, he 180-ed so quickly and completely it was if he'd always supported the idea.
As long as Apple remains on the right path, whatever it is, I expect them to continue that fine tradition of misdirection. Well except for Apple television. The pulled string narrative continues, and the redesigned iMac gives us a design clue where it might lead.
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Oct 23, 2012 19:39:53 GMT -8
Not hard to believe that SJ was not part of the mini. He said he didn't like the size. This is a move by new management IMO.
|
|
|
Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 23, 2012 19:42:18 GMT -8
Welcome applemuncher
Point 1: Historically this is true and I share the concern.
Point 2: Maybe, but not so concerned.
Point 3: Disagree for the most part. Given the sheer volume of Apple products, customers appreciate a little variety.
Point 4: Agree. Apple TV is a phantom for the near future. 9-12 months from now is another story. Also, Apple does not know how to be revolutionary without upsetting the current customers too much. The iPhone and iPad were in and of themselves revolutionary, even tho they were inspired by predecessors or Star Trek.
Point 5: Agree. Battery life is worth paying for in extra weight.
Point 6 and 7: hmmm.
|
|
|
Post by magictrackpad on Oct 23, 2012 19:49:20 GMT -8
Just tweeted: Horace Dediu @asymco "The iPad 2 is cheap. The iPad mini is the same as an iPad 2 but smaller, lighter and cheaper. Therefore the iPad mini is too expensive. " The ipad 2 doesn't have siri, mini does. Also the processor is much better in mini. Can't compare them like apples to apples. Much better processor in the iPad Mini? I was under the impression that both the iPad Mini and iPad 2 share the same A5 CPU. Even with the A5, I see the Mini as a very nice tablet, even at $329. I used to have an iPad 2 and it was very smooth.
|
|
|
Post by Lstream on Oct 23, 2012 19:58:12 GMT -8
Applemuncher
2. Just because they both use aluminum DOES NOT equal the same case design. For all we know, Apple does not even overlap suppliers for these cases.
3. Disagree. Look at Apple compared to any other tech company from a SKU perspective.
5. Is this a competitive disadvantage? Don't think so. Many would disagree on this point.
6. Meaningless until we see sales results. Maybe we are dealing with unprecedented demand.
7. You have any data to back up the claim that a "large percentage" of the cases don't make it off the line? FUDster bloggers with no facts don't count.
Regarding guidance being down due to manufacturing and component availability, are you basing this on any facts or just rumours? Where is credible data on the magnitude of this alleged issue?
|
|
|
Post by kloot on Oct 23, 2012 20:12:54 GMT -8
Not hard to believe that SJ was not part of the mini. He said he didn't like the size. This is a move by new management IMO. he also didn't like video on iPods, 3rd party apps on iPhone, etc. etc. as mentioned above, he changed his mind all the time.
|
|