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Post by fas550 on Oct 25, 2012 14:13:12 GMT -8
Now, that would be something! Ha, no chance. Not with that guidance. Apple only increased their ttm to 44ish. 44x 12.5 = 550 44x 13= 572 44x 14 = 616 572 ish fills the gaps from July. To make matters worse, we no enter a time when Apple is usually very quiet. We'll see eh!
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Post by gtrplyr on Oct 25, 2012 14:18:38 GMT -8
the international sales was a good question. i didn't realize the iphone5 didn't launch as much overseas yet vs US. that would account for the lower int'l sales from the quarter. Hopefully china launch is early December and not late. Also a question. The streets estimates of 55billion revs and $15+ EPS, and Apple's estimates of 52billion and 11.75 EPS. The proportional difference between revenues is much smaller than EPS. Is the reason for that because of higher costs? I believe it's because Apple is guiding margins to 36% ....
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Post by johng on Oct 25, 2012 14:20:07 GMT -8
I'm having a problem with the 36% margin. If true, that would be the lowest since at least 2008 (other than 36.9% in 4Q10). Does anyone know what the usual beat is on GM? And, what type of bump in the EPS # (currently $11.75) would an increase to 40% GM be? Keep in mind this is the Apple sandbag guidance GM. All in all, a somewhat reassuring Q&A by TC and crew. cheers to all JohnG
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Post by adamthompson32 on Oct 25, 2012 14:21:08 GMT -8
Call me crazy, but TC said demand for Apple's primary product is basically off the charts, so I'm thinking the stock is up a fair amount in the coming weeks as that sinks in with everyone. The smart phone market is growing, and Apple will continue to take share. That's pretty much all that matters. Everything else is just gravy.
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Post by jcaron on Oct 25, 2012 14:21:45 GMT -8
Deleted all the KH water cooler stuff.... take it to PM, thanks. ahhh thank you... That talk is expected in a locker room but this is a coed forum.. We done OK so far huh iPad??? See what tomorrow brings.. BUY BUY BUY ;D
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Post by roni on Oct 25, 2012 14:21:53 GMT -8
Apple green
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Post by fas550 on Oct 25, 2012 14:22:06 GMT -8
Deleted all the KH water cooler stuff.... take it to PM, thanks. Sorry. It's personal and I will leave it there in the future.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 25, 2012 14:25:35 GMT -8
Fas, i think TC and PO saved the day. I also think there are 52 billion reasons this stock is undervalued again. I will be on a plane tomorrow, so I won't be around. Good luck to all.
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Post by bryanyc on Oct 25, 2012 14:28:03 GMT -8
We've cracked 610 again and the agreement seems to be flat as she goes. Tomorrow we will see if we get some desperate buyers who though it was going to be worse and planned to get in below 600. I'm not looking forward to seeing the drop in value of my Jan 14 750's on no change in the stock value. Then again, the losing streak has been so long that I will just shrug it off and think of Springtime
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Post by rosie on Oct 25, 2012 14:30:46 GMT -8
Can't wait for the 60 billion revenue announcement in the next earnings. Jai Ganesha!
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Post by fas550 on Oct 25, 2012 14:31:38 GMT -8
Fas, i think TC and PO saved the day. I also think there are 52 billion reasons this stock is undervalued again. I will be on a plane tomorrow, so I won't be around. Good luck to all. Think you summed it up.
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Post by ccs on Oct 25, 2012 14:39:58 GMT -8
How do you all feel the next dividend will affect the stock price. Ex-divi date Nov 8th.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,183
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 25, 2012 14:59:27 GMT -8
Apple Q1 2011 earnings: And that's with iPhone 4S. I'm not predicting another 50% beat by any means, but that would put EPS at 17.52. A 25% beat would be 14.68. Meeting guidance at $11.75 would still be one of the top-10 most profitable quarters of all time. BTW, someone want to do the math on how $AAPL would go from $46B Revs to $52B YoY but drop from $13.87 EPS to $11.75?
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Post by chasmac on Oct 25, 2012 15:02:26 GMT -8
Fas, i think TC and PO saved the day. I also think there are 52 billion reasons this stock is undervalued again. I will be on a plane tomorrow, so I won't be around. Good luck to all. What's our tee time? ;D
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jz
Member
"Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it." -- Lao Tsu
Posts: 162
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Post by jz on Oct 25, 2012 15:02:54 GMT -8
2011: guidance: 37b revenues, 9.30 EPS actual: 46b, 13.87 EPS 2012: guidance: 52b revenues, 11.75 EPS actual: ? ? ? how is this bad? Not bad at all. And given the way Mr. Market likes volatility and volume and given I think there is more of both with share price going up from here... I'd have to say not bad at all. Thanks for the bigger picture on a cloudy day, Terpy
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Post by jeffi on Oct 25, 2012 15:03:03 GMT -8
We are at a strong/ solid base to build from (stock price). Buy the dips from here. Very low risk. Best product pipeline heading into biggest quarter along with a very, very low valuation. PE of 11 net of cash. Nothing to fear... Yada yada
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Post by rickag on Oct 25, 2012 15:07:41 GMT -8
Apple Q1 2011 earnings: And that's with iPhone 4S. I'm not predicting another 50% beat by any means, but that would put EPS at 17.52. A 25% beat would be 14.68. Meeting guidance at $11.75 would still be one of the top-10 most profitable quarters of all time. BTW, someone want to do the math on how $AAPL would go from $46B Revs to $52B YoY but drop from $13.87 EPS to $11.75? Just a WAG but 36% GM might explain part of it. Too dipressed to do the math.
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jz
Member
"Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it." -- Lao Tsu
Posts: 162
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Post by jz on Oct 25, 2012 15:08:16 GMT -8
Great point made on CNBC about the cost of ramping up a brand new product line. iPhone 5, new iPad, iPad mini, iPod Nano and Touch, iMac and 13 inch MBP all saw new production lines started in 4Q. That is a huge hit to margins. Was it Munster that asked PO that question on the conference call? If so, he was asking a question he knew the answer to so that he could make his CNBC comment look smart... I guess there's nothing wrong with that... Most importanly, I think going into what could really be a monster quarter... the expectations seem restrained right now... Check back tomorrow...
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jz
Member
"Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it." -- Lao Tsu
Posts: 162
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Post by jz on Oct 25, 2012 15:14:40 GMT -8
The understated genius of Tim Cook at work. I'd also tune out that noise from Redler (he's not a fundamentals/Apple analyst type) about iPhone 5. Insane demand is a good problem to have, and iPhone 4 supply issues and iPad 1 supply issues didn't drive customers to inferior competition in any significant numbers from what I can tell. Agreed. I saw a stat showing that only a very few people waiting for a backlogged Apple product go elsewhere. I think the demand may even make it seem more special. And investors certainly wouldn't want Apple to build excess capacity just for a ramp that predictably dissipates. TC wouldn't say when he expects supply balance on iPhone 5, but he did say it would launch in China in the Dec. quarter. How early is the million-handset-sold question.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 25, 2012 15:20:10 GMT -8
I'm playing around with next quarter coming in at a minimum of 55 billion in revs and I don't think there is a real chance we see a 36% GM. I think 40% is reasonable, if not conservative.
Apple has spent a boatload on plant, property and equipment. They are gearing up. Even when amortized, those costs hit the front end and give benefits at the back end.
If demand stays solid (and why should it not?), there will be an enormous payback for this investment. What I find intriguing is that it may be the April quarter, not the December quarter that really sets off the fireworks.
Now that would be awesome!
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 25, 2012 15:20:25 GMT -8
Fas, i think TC and PO saved the day. I also think there are 52 billion reasons this stock is undervalued again. I will be on a plane tomorrow, so I won't be around. Good luck to all. What's our tee time? ;D Saturday at Royal Links 10:30 and back to Bali Hai on Sunday, also at 10:30. When I get back I will tell you who it is I am playing with. I have to try and get that bad taste out of my mouth from Bali Hai when we played. Thankfully the forecast for the wind is reasonably calm. No 50 mph gusts. Whew. I can't get that round out of my head.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,183
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 25, 2012 15:22:23 GMT -8
Apple Q1 2011 earnings: And that's with iPhone 4S. I'm not predicting another 50% beat by any means, but that would put EPS at 17.52. A 25% beat would be 14.68. Meeting guidance at $11.75 would still be one of the top-10 most profitable quarters of all time. BTW, someone want to do the math on how $AAPL would go from $46B Revs to $52B YoY but drop from $13.87 EPS to $11.75? Just a WAG but 36% GM might explain part of it. Too dipressed to do the math. A decline in GM's by 10% X an increase in Revs by 13% = a decline in EPS by 15%?
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Post by greedynoob on Oct 25, 2012 15:26:15 GMT -8
A decline in GM's by 10% X an increase in Revs by 13% = a decline in EPS by 15%? 1.13*.36 = .407 So, not quite, but the GM accounts for most of it?
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Post by gtrplyr on Oct 25, 2012 15:27:19 GMT -8
How do you all feel the next dividend will affect the stock price. Ex-divi date Nov 8th. It won't. A $600+ stock paying a $2.65 dividend ?? It's laughable , anyone who buys this stock for that measly dividend needs a lesson in investing. Especially when you consider the volatility involved. That said ... I'm looking forward to seeing it in my account !! I would not be surprised if the dividend is increased after next quarter.
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Post by nate010203 on Oct 25, 2012 15:28:14 GMT -8
I am very happy to see apple down only 50 cents afterhours at the moment with a half hour left in trading tonight.
Apple makes billions a quarter, any other company would be happy to make the kind of money apple does, yet apple is always punished by the street.
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Post by fas550 on Oct 25, 2012 15:29:03 GMT -8
One concern I do have: usually yes their estimates are way under but this time they gave a reason for pause. I'll look over the transcript to be accurate but when he said, even emphasized that the reason for lower guidance than last year was because they recognize revenue over the product life cycle, not all at once and the Dec qtr is not typically a robust qtr for recognizing past revenue. We need to get smarter on this to see how this could affect numbers. What I'm saying is if all out estimates are based on number of units sold BUT they only recognize a percentage of that unit, it is exponentially significant and the increase of number of units YoY may not be able to compensate the difference. Thoughts?
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 25, 2012 15:30:02 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,183
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 25, 2012 15:30:38 GMT -8
I'm playing around with next quarter coming in at a minimum of 55 billion in revs and I don't think there is a real chance we see a 36% GM. I think 40% is reasonable, if not conservative. Apple has spent a boatload on plant, property and equipment. They are gearing up. Even when amortized, those costs hit the front end and give benefits at the back end. If demand stays solid (and why should it not?), there will be an enormous payback for this investment. What I find intriguing is that it may be the April quarter, not the December quarter that really sets off the fireworks. Now that would be awesome! Especially if a China Mobile deal gets announced in Q1. I can live with 609 with 3.6M shares traded in aftermarket. Interestingly, pain range looks like 610-614.99 (615 puts slightly leading).
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 25, 2012 15:34:37 GMT -8
Hey! Guess what?! We filled the 585-ish gap!!
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Post by nate010203 on Oct 25, 2012 15:35:23 GMT -8
I have been so nervous the past 24 hours. Every hour seemed to drag on and on. Being flat from where apple closed is okay by me, it could have been a lot worse.
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