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Post by bryanyc on Oct 25, 2012 17:39:46 GMT -8
Lets talk about EPS shall we? So far we have goog 2.18 + Amzn -$0.23 + nflx $0.11 + msft $0.53 = $2.59 aapl $8.67......or 3.35 x's (goog, msft, nflx, and amzn combined) Interesting.... I wonder which of this crew has the lowest PE. Wait - I know the answer. Believe it or not, it isn't Microsoft.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 25, 2012 17:40:53 GMT -8
The sandbag ratio this time was 1.133 as compared to 1.367 for the past 10 quarters, 1.285 of the past 5 quarters including this one, 1.218 for CY 2012 3 quarters.
To rephrase, the past 2 quarters have the lowest sandbag ratio in my spreadsheet (begins Jan-Mar 2010).
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Post by nate010203 on Oct 25, 2012 17:52:56 GMT -8
amzn has negative eps for the quarter and it barely goes down.
If aapl had negative eps all hell would break lose.
Why does amzn get a free pass and not be valued like other companies?
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podboy
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Post by podboy on Oct 25, 2012 17:53:26 GMT -8
Guidance for this quarter $34.0 billion revenue $7.65 EPS Actual: $36 billion in revenue and $8.67 per share in profit. Not bad at all in hindsight....who are we kidding and where is the miss? They have ALL the info - the rest of us are shooting blanks in the dark. Here is a list of how aapl beat guidance in the past. Today we only beat it my 13%. Thats why everyone is saying miss Beat or Miss to Apple 7.37% 44.71% 49.14% 28.18% 54.87% 30.61% 33.96% 34.88% 50.64% 57.08%
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 25, 2012 17:59:07 GMT -8
Future is bright. Gonna need these.
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podboy
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Post by podboy on Oct 25, 2012 18:04:03 GMT -8
I don't particularly care for Cramer but...
from a Cramer tweet: JimCramer RT @derek_nan: @jimcramer IT guys over 40 love Microsoft... 40 and under love $AAPL--soon the older people will retire. Thank heavens
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Post by bryanyc on Oct 25, 2012 18:09:52 GMT -8
The sandbag ratio this time was 1.133 as compared to 1.367 for the past 10 quarters, 1.285 of the past 5 quarters including this one, 1.218 for CY 2012 3 quarters. To rephrase, the past 2 quarters have the lowest sandbag ratio in my spreadsheet (begins Jan-Mar 2010). I guess the question is is this eps sandbag contraction on purpose or due to "miscalculation" in these specific recent quarters.
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Post by zzmac on Oct 25, 2012 18:09:54 GMT -8
Up or down? ;D How do you all feel the next dividend will affect the stock price. Ex-divi date Nov 8th. I think it will move the stock $.01 or $.02.
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Post by ericinaustin on Oct 25, 2012 18:14:40 GMT -8
I'll tell you one thing, if they can make enough of them, they are gonna sell a massive number of those iMacs. That is one sexy piece of technology. It is drop dead hubba Hubba good looking. I think I actually drooled a bit when he brought that out. No it's not the profit center in the mix but the beat could be so big it will provide cover for a few misses in other areas.
I just wish my 90 k dollars in jan. 13 naked calls had one more month to run.
Tues presentation was one of the best I have seen them do. Notice how quick all the products will be available. Their pipeline is stuffed with every product new and drool worthy . I think the gross margin number is a total sand bag and we are about to see an incredible beat. This one could be mind blowing. If overall Christmas sales are really big then hold onto your hats The mother of all apple Christmases. I predict this beat will be one of the biggest. Will go down in business lore.
Eric in Austin
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Post by jamesq on Oct 25, 2012 18:19:23 GMT -8
On one of the blogging sites, I thought I saw where Tim said they may buy back more shares. Was I dreaming? At 14:30 in the conference call, Oppenheimer said: "In August, we entered into a rule 10b5 compliant accelerated share repurchase program with a financial institution to purchase up to $2 billion in Apple stock during fiscal year 2013. In addition to shares purchased through the accelerated share repurchase program, we may also purchase shares in open market transactions in compliance with all applicable securities laws." So the board has already discussed another buyback program (beyond the one which offsets dilution from the employee incentive program). We have no promise to do so, and no target amount or schedule, but the words "we may also purchase" are welcome. I would much rather have significant buybacks to more dividends. I would rather be able to choose when to take gains than accept more dividends.
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 25, 2012 18:19:23 GMT -8
Lets talk about EPS shall we? So far we have goog 2.18 + Amzn -$0.23 + nflx $0.11 + msft $0.53 = $2.59 aapl $8.67......or 3.35 x's (goog, msft, nflx, and amzn combined) This post and your next two are so spot on!
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 25, 2012 18:22:26 GMT -8
I'll tell you one thing, if they can make enough of them, they are gonna sell a massive number of those iMacs. That is one sexy piece of technology. It is drop dead hubba Hubba good looking. I think I actually drooled a bit when he brought that out. No it's not the profit center in the mix but the beat could be so big it will provide cover for a few misses in other areas. I just wish my 90 k dollars in jan. 13 naked calls had one more month to run. Tues presentation was one of the best I have seen them do. Notice how quick all the products will be available. Their pipeline is stuffed with every product new and drool worthy . I think the gross margin number is a total sand bag and we are about to see an incredible beat. This one could be mind blowing. If overall Christmas sales are really big then hold onto your hats The mother of all apple Christmases. I predict this beat will be one of the biggest. Will go down in business lore. Eric in Austin You can always roll them up and out to capture ER in January
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Post by jiarossi2000 on Oct 25, 2012 18:24:39 GMT -8
I don't particularly care for Cramer but... from a Cramer tweet: JimCramer RT @derek_nan: @jimcramer IT guys over 40 love Microsoft... 40 and under love $AAPL--soon the older people will retire. Thank heavens Well I'm a 40+ IT guy that is MSCE certified and knew nothing but Microsoft for 13+ years. Then a few years back I purchased an Ipad and MacAir, I now wonder what I was doing that past 13 years? BTW I work with several converted MS guys that love Apple now.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 25, 2012 18:25:02 GMT -8
At 14:30 in the conference call, Oppenheimer said: "In August, we entered into a rule 10b5 compliant accelerated share repurchase program with a financial institution to purchase up to $2 billion in Apple stock during fiscal year 2013. In addition to shares purchased through the accelerated share repurchase program, we may also purchase shares in open market transactions in compliance with all applicable securities laws." So the board has already discussed another buyback program (beyond the one which offsets dilution from the employee incentive program). We have no promise to do so, and no target amount or schedule, but the words "we may also purchase" are welcome. I would much rather have significant buybacks to more dividends. I would rather be able to choose when to take gains than accept more dividends. A share buyback is the best use of the cash IMO. Strategically buying will create support for the stock. These shares need to be purchased on the open market. These dramatic swings need to end. It is what WB has done with his B shares.
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podboy
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Post by podboy on Oct 25, 2012 18:25:57 GMT -8
Welcome to the board Jiarossi!
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Post by jiarossi2000 on Oct 25, 2012 18:27:32 GMT -8
Welcome to the board Jiarossi! Thank you sir!
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 25, 2012 18:37:53 GMT -8
Welcome Jiarossi. Windows experience is welcome by me especially. I have not used Windows for anything tangible other than version 2 of World of Warcraft. I should get out more.
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mark
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Post by mark on Oct 25, 2012 18:45:55 GMT -8
I wonder why they don't simply go to calendar quarters instead? 1-Jan to 31-Mar 1-Apr to 30-Jun etc Because that would lead to discrepancies in each quarter. US companies like a consistent quarter ie each US-style quarter has 13 weeks. A calendar quarter is not even. So what? There's nothing wrong with discrepancies from one quarter to the next. We already have massive changes due to seasonality anyway. But the way I describe would have consistency for the year-over-year comparisons!
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 25, 2012 18:48:17 GMT -8
Guidance for this quarter $34.0 billion revenue $7.65 EPS Actual: $36 billion in revenue and $8.67 per share in profit. Not bad at all in hindsight....who are we kidding and where is the miss? They have ALL the info - the rest of us are shooting blanks in the dark. Jason Schwarz was making the point in his note late this afternoon that the Professional Analysts have been getting more aggressive with their estimates, after years of being made to look stupid by the amateur analysts like Zaky,Turley Mueller, Horace Dediu, et.al. The result is that their estimated are now higher and more difficult to beat. Not so sure I subscribe to that, because blow-outs in the past involved beating guidance by 40%-55% - and beating the analysts' estimates by 25% to 35% - and this is the second quarter in a row where they beat guidance by < 15% (and not beating the analysts' numbers at all). In retrospect, being $85 from the ATH saved us this time around.
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Post by gtrplyr on Oct 25, 2012 18:54:01 GMT -8
Can I have yours, I simply want to spare you the insulted feeling ;D Like I said .... it's not very much percentage wise but I'm THRILLED to have it. I don't think it's enough to move the stock price after the distribution but at least it's a foot in the door. I'm sure it will increase over time. If there was any facet of Apple's business strategy that I could change it would be the way they manage their cash reserves. I'm all for playing it conservative and keeping a "war chest" but they could easily double the dividend and still grow their reserves. Remember there is over $120 per share in cash (overseas and domestic) and unfortunately Wall Street does not give us any credit for it .... at the very least a HUGE buyback would seem to be in order. Oh well, if that's my biggest concern it's not really much ... Nice to see the AH action today ... maybe we have finally found some kind of floor.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 25, 2012 18:56:09 GMT -8
Guidance for this quarter $34.0 billion revenue $7.65 EPS Actual: $36 billion in revenue and $8.67 per share in profit. Not bad at all in hindsight....who are we kidding and where is the miss? They have ALL the info - the rest of us are shooting blanks in the dark. Here is a list of how aapl beat guidance in the past. Today we only beat it my 13%. Thats why everyone is saying miss Beat or Miss to Apple 7.37% 44.71% 49.14% 28.18% 54.87% 30.61% 33.96% 34.88% 50.64% 57.08% They're saying it's a miss because it did not meet the analysts' estimate of $8.75 EPS, by a measly $0.08.
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Post by appledoc on Oct 25, 2012 18:57:01 GMT -8
I can't wait to get my hands on these numbers this weekend. For once I feel like I have a plan and I'm going to trade it.
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Post by nate010203 on Oct 25, 2012 18:57:19 GMT -8
Apple beat its guidence its not a miss
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 25, 2012 18:59:38 GMT -8
Although my fear of the earnings played out, WS sees to be OK with the numbers. I also get the feeling that from now on, WS will become closer and closer to Apple's guidance. One thing is certain, October is a transition qtr now. I look for AAPL to become more cyclical. With the product line completely refreshed, Q2 should be outstanding. China coming on line in December is welcome, but the question is, will it include CM?
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 25, 2012 19:01:07 GMT -8
does afterhours gap filling count? When 3.6M shares are traded, it does. If you believe in that total bullshit amazing art that the wonderful lovemyipad practices in her spectacularly bedazzling manner. You love me!!!
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mark
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Post by mark on Oct 25, 2012 19:03:25 GMT -8
I would not be surprised if the dividend is increased after next quarter. If the dividend will be taxed at 40+% next year (as current 2013 tax law states), then I would prefer for it to be cut to zero. I'd rather have capital gains in that case. Yesterday I conjectured that they would announce a special one-time dividend this year, but it looks like I was wrong.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 25, 2012 19:05:29 GMT -8
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mark
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Post by mark on Oct 25, 2012 19:12:21 GMT -8
A share buyback is the best use of the cash IMO. Strategically buying will create support for the stock. These shares need to be purchased on the open market. These dramatic swings need to end. It is what WB has done with his B shares. What did WB do exactly?
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Post by macoz on Oct 25, 2012 19:19:44 GMT -8
Because that would lead to discrepancies in each quarter. US companies like a consistent quarter ie each US-style quarter has 13 weeks. A calendar quarter is not even. So what? There's nothing wrong with discrepancies from one quarter to the next. We already have massive changes due to seasonality anyway. But the way I describe would have consistency for the year-over-year comparisons! A 14 week quarter happens every five or six years. Can't be bothered to check it out but it is out there if you want to verify it.
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Post by po1nt on Oct 25, 2012 19:21:43 GMT -8
A share buyback is the best use of the cash IMO. Strategically buying will create support for the stock. These shares need to be purchased on the open market. These dramatic swings need to end. It is what WB has done with his B shares. What did WB do exactly? he bought every time brk.b was at or below 1.1x book.
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