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Post by mace on Jun 11, 2014 6:29:35 GMT -8
Yes, look like many stacked threes up wave , not down waves. Btw, AAPL is trapped within two up trend channels. Other than the one mentioned previously, is also trapped within the one from $50 low. The two channels are intercepting at around $95-$96.
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Post by appledoc on Jun 12, 2014 11:04:59 GMT -8
Not done yet I think.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 12, 2014 11:28:20 GMT -8
This is the worst red candle I've seen in...weeks? Hmm.
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Post by mace on Jun 12, 2014 12:24:13 GMT -8
Prelim assessment is $95.05 is completion of 3.iii, now in 3.iv. Reason is because 72.64-95.05 (3.iii) is about 2.618 times 78.30-69.70 (3.i).
AAPL is now in $88.93-$92.02 (expect 3.iv.A completing here), then up (can be as high as $96.69), and down to $82.90-$85.86 (expect 3.iv.C completing here). If tomorrow rebounces, likely mean today's low is 3.iv.A.a, the rebounce is 3.iv.A.b, follows by decline to $88.93-$92.02 again to complete 3.iv.A. The wave 3.iv. should take 4-6 weeks to complete. 3.v should start about a week before Jul earnings.
Above is one possibile development. Let's what actually happen and refine accordingly.
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Post by mace on Jun 16, 2014 14:52:12 GMT -8
Prelim assessment is $95.05 is completion of 3.iii, now in 3.iv. Reason is because 72.64-95.05 (3.iii) is about 2.618 times 78.30-69.70 (3.i). AAPL is now in $88.93-$92.02 (expect 3.iv.A completing here), then up (can be as high as $96.69), and down to $82.90-$85.86 (expect 3.iv.C completing here). If tomorrow rebounces, likely mean today's low is 3.iv.A.a, the rebounce is 3.iv.A.b, follows by decline to $88.93-$92.02 again to complete 3.iv.A. The wave 3.iv. should take 4-6 weeks to complete. 3.v should start about a week before Jul earnings. Above is one possibile development. Let's what actually happen and refine accordingly. WAG, today's bounce is 3.iv.A.b. If correct, should decline to $88.93-$92.02 again without hitting above $93.46. If higher, the bounce could be 3.iv.B.a. I expect 3.iv.B.c to be higher than $95.05... so look like 3.iii.(3) or 3.v.(1)... bull trap.
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Post by incorrigible on Jun 16, 2014 16:10:05 GMT -8
Thanks for posting your EW counts Mace. Always enlightening.
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Post by appledoc on Jun 23, 2014 15:55:47 GMT -8
Looks like a good point for a potential turnaround. 90.51 is the 38.2% retrace of 83.63 to 95.05. Came within 9 cents today.
SMA20 acted as resistance today. If it is recaptured within three days, I would buy.
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Post by macwire on Jun 23, 2014 17:35:28 GMT -8
Looks like a good point for a potential turnaround. 90.51 is the 38.2% retrace of 83.63 to 95.05. Came within 9 cents today. SMA20 acted as resistance today. If it is recaptured within three days, I would buy. Hmm. Would yield a projection to 100 if we find support and bounce from here using a simple ab=cd I'll save it on a chart and review it. Thx
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Post by mace on Jun 24, 2014 15:09:05 GMT -8
Realize didn't update the preferred count post-split. wave 1 = $53.36 to $81.22, length = $27.86 wave 2 = $81.22 to $69.70 wave 3.i = $69.70 to $78.30, length = $8.60 wave 3.ii = $78.30 to $72.64 wave 3.iii = $72.64 to $95.05 wave 3.iv = $95.05 to ... 14.6% ret = $91.78 (passed) 23.6% ret = $89.76 (lowest so far is $90.19) 38.2% ret = $86.49 50.0% ret = $83.85 (lower than this, need to reassess) 61.8% ret = $81.20 (lower than this, must reassess) WAG: 3.iv.A.a = $95.05 to $90.88, length = $4.17 3.iv.A.b = $90.88 to $92.75 3.iv.A.c = $92.75 to ... c=0.618 of a, $90.17 (today's LOD is $90.19, want to bet this is it ?) c=a, $88.58 c=1.618 of a, $86.00
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Post by appledoc on Jun 24, 2014 16:01:56 GMT -8
If we're retracing 82.90 to 95.05, 38.2% is 90.21. So today falls in line with this. If not, then I would look for 87.82 next.
I lean toward the later. Too many bearish technicals on the chart.
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Post by appledoc on Jun 25, 2014 6:39:38 GMT -8
Definitely 87.72. Makes for an even better buy.
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Post by mace on Jun 25, 2014 13:16:07 GMT -8
If we're retracing 82.90 to 95.05, 38.2% is 90.21. So today falls in line with this. If not, then I would look for 87.82 next. I lean toward the later. Too many bearish technicals on the chart. I presume you are counting 72.64 to 95.05 as 1-2-3 of an impulse instead of a completed impulse. Btw 38.2% of 82.90 - 95.05 is $90.41. 50% would be $88.98 61.8% would be $87.54
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Post by mace on Jun 27, 2014 11:05:43 GMT -8
If current rally stalls before $97.11 (expect not higher than $93.89), the view that $72.64-$95.05 is a completed impulse is likely correct. If stalls near $100, $72.64-$95.05 is 1-2-3 of an impulse, the near $100 price completes the impulse. Whichever scenario, should retrace back to $92-$89 again. This price zone is likely to visit so many times that talk of head and shoulder (actually is a special case of wave two pattern) would be abundant.
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Post by mace on Jun 29, 2014 17:31:03 GMT -8
Time to go back to the BIG picture.
appledoc, ilovemyipad, any Elliotticians...
Any change of heart as to what wave is AAPL doing from Apr 12 to Apr 13?
AFAIK we view $87.94 to $53.36 as an expanded wave four of Cycle degree, giving min target of wave V = $115. Max target about the same as Ted (read below).
Ted Aguhob thinks $96.69 (Sep 12) to $53.36 (Apr 13) is a wave II, wave III would hit $207 !!!!
note: split adjusted past prices
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 29, 2014 17:36:03 GMT -8
207 ahahahhahahaha
Ahem! Sorry
Fundamentals would never let that happen. Imagine AAPL with a multiple of at least high 20s
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Post by nagrani on Jun 29, 2014 18:08:30 GMT -8
Mace do you subscribe to wave genius? Worth it?
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Post by mace on Jun 29, 2014 18:32:05 GMT -8
Mace do you subscribe to wave genius? Worth it? No. In the early days of learning EW, I spent $20 buying his ebooks, and now always receive his emails.
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Post by incorrigible on Jun 30, 2014 9:55:38 GMT -8
One can dream
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Post by mace on Jun 30, 2014 12:20:14 GMT -8
Prelim assessment is $95.05 is completion of 3.iii, now in 3.iv. Reason is because 72.64-95.05 (3.iii) is about 2.618 times 78.30-69.70 (3.i). AAPL is now in $88.93-$92.02 (expect 3.iv.A completing here), then up (can be as high as $96.69), and down to $82.90-$85.86 (expect 3.iv.C completing here). If tomorrow rebounces, likely mean today's low is 3.iv.A.a, the rebounce is 3.iv.A.b, follows by decline to $88.93-$92.02 again to complete 3.iv.A. The wave 3.iv. should take 4-6 weeks to complete. 3.v should start about a week before Jul earnings. Above is one possibile development. Let's what actually happen and refine accordingly. WAG, today's bounce is 3.iv.A.b. If correct, should decline to $88.93-$92.02 again without hitting above $93.46. If higher, the bounce could be 3.iv.B.a. I expect 3.iv.B.c to be higher than $95.05... so look like 3.iii.(3) or 3.v.(1)... bull trap. Stick to my view or be influenced by Henry of SI and Wave Genius
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Post by mace on Jul 1, 2014 7:02:43 GMT -8
If current rally stalls before $97.11 (expect not higher than $93.89), the view that $72.64-$95.05 is a completed impulse is likely correct. If stalls near $100, $72.64-$95.05 is 1-2-3 of an impulse, the near $100 price completes the impulse. Whichever scenario, should retrace back to $92-$89 again. This price zone is likely to visit so many times that talk of head and shoulder (actually is a special case of wave two pattern) would be abundant. The bounce from $89.65 is impulsive as expected. Is it 3.iv.B.c? Or is it 3.iii? If former, after completion, do a normal flat or expanded flat or triangle? HoD so far is $93.96
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Post by nagrani on Jul 2, 2014 20:37:57 GMT -8
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Post by mace on Jul 7, 2014 12:01:25 GMT -8
If current rally stalls before $97.11 (expect not higher than $93.89), the view that $72.64-$95.05 is a completed impulse is likely correct. If stalls near $100, $72.64-$95.05 is 1-2-3 of an impulse, the near $100 price completes the impulse. Whichever scenario, should retrace back to $92-$89 again. This price zone is likely to visit so many times that talk of head and shoulder (actually is a special case of wave two pattern) would be abundant. The bounce from $89.65 is impulsive as expected. Is it 3.iv.B.c? Or is it 3.iii? If former, after completion, do a normal flat or expanded flat or triangle? HoD so far is $93.96 HoD $96. Decision time, hold or sell at $97, $98, $100, $105?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 7, 2014 12:35:44 GMT -8
Depends on timeframe.
Not seeing any retrace potential on the radar just yet in TW. IF it weren't for earnings uncertainty there look to be "suggested" measured move targets up to 110.
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Post by mace on Jul 7, 2014 22:00:20 GMT -8
Would be watching price behavior as it approaches $97.11. A zigzag behaves like an 1-2-3 of an impulse. To add to this vagary, initial retracement of a zigzag is similar to wave 4 of an impulse.
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Post by appledoc on Jul 13, 2014 5:21:43 GMT -8
Tough chart to read. I would favor down before up, even if just the short term. Use your levels. 92.32 is next.
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Post by mace on Jul 13, 2014 7:42:42 GMT -8
Always happen when in wave four.
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Post by mace on Jul 13, 2014 8:09:48 GMT -8
Not much change to this preferred count. Almost certain is in 3.iv. What is uncertain is whether it is completed or not. Price behavior of wave fours are usually impossible to read correctly.
wave 1 = $53.36 to $81.22, length = $27.86 wave 2 = $81.22 to $69.70 wave 3.i = $69.70 to $78.30, length = $8.60 wave 3.ii = $78.30 to $72.64 wave 3.iii = $72.64 to $95.05 wave 3.iv = $95.05 to ...
14.6% ret = $91.78 (passed) 23.6% ret = $89.76 (passed) 38.2% ret = $86.49 (lowest so far is $89.65) 50.0% ret = $83.85 (lower than this, need to reassess) 61.8% ret = $81.20 (lower than this, must reassess)
WAG: 3.iv.A = $95.05 to $89.65 (alternate is this is completion of 3.iv) 3.iv.B = $89.65 to $97.10 (if alternate is right, this is 123 of an impulse that would complete around $105), must not higher than $97.11 3.iv.C = $97.10 to ... Four possibilities: One: Complete at $91.70 Two: Complete at $89.65 Three: Complete at $86.31 Four: A triangle with apex at $96
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Post by mace on Jul 14, 2014 12:56:04 GMT -8
Today's price behavior brings out another possibility, 3.iv.B has not completed. Might be doing an ending diagonal, asymptotically, to $97.11. Above $97.11, alternate count is highly likely.
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Post by mace on Jul 16, 2014 5:57:36 GMT -8
AH = $97.99 BUT open at $97.10, even with such a big APPLE-IBM pact news can't break above $97.11 !!! Wow, power of EW forecasting human sentiments is uncanny, news or no news, human feels the same way.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 16, 2014 10:24:03 GMT -8
As a home gamer from TW (me), I'm still doubtful that AAPL will really resolve one way or another until earnings. IBM deal should definitely support sentiment (read: P/E multiple) though.
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