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Post by ibuyer on Nov 14, 2012 9:40:37 GMT -8
You can chop every chart or massage every number to make it look the way you want it to look. I won many deals doing just that -- and THAT is what these analysts and chartists do just to get the publicity. Slap on the ticker AAPL and it will get you a spot on any show. That said, it is Tony Sacconaghi who seems to be out there saying that AAPL's hyper growth is over. To that I say - great - give me Coke's mulitiple and we should be between $900-$1000 on stock price. In addition, where was Tony at $704? NOW he decides to make this call --- people actually get paid for this nonsense? It's infuriating. RE: Sacconaghi - He has cautioned a miss for last 2 quarters (and as much as we dont want to admit it - he was right). Toni would agree with you 100% regarding KO mutliple. He maintains his $800. Hopefully, he says on fast money - even if you assume that growth slows to 15-20% for the next 3 years, AAPL is worth $800. (Read value stock). If, as ppl here project, it grows faster, then growth managers will buy in a panic (hopefully).
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 14, 2012 9:41:54 GMT -8
Like Tyson said, "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face." Let's hope AAPL punches all these reprobates in the face with their earnings in Jan!
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Post by ibuyer on Nov 14, 2012 9:46:28 GMT -8
Is this a joke? RCA went head first into the Great Depression. Is he saying we are heading into a Great Depression? What is the point of this overlay? What a ridiculous comparison. The FUD is insane. The NY Post even spun apples retail stores in a bad light. Reading the headline you'd think that Apple Retail was losing money. Last years FUD was bad but this year it is almost criminal how ridiculous and wrong all these stories are. it is a joke - but not the ha ha kind. Kaminsky was just pointing out what the market chatter was and not his view. lots of traders do just look at charts... FWIW, when illogical articles start becoming the norm, then it commonly marks the bottom (general macro risk aside, of course)
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 14, 2012 9:47:26 GMT -8
You can chop every chart or massage every number to make it look the way you want it to look. I won many deals doing just that -- and THAT is what these analysts and chartists do just to get the publicity. Slap on the ticker AAPL and it will get you a spot on any show. That said, it is Tony Sacconaghi who seems to be out there saying that AAPL's hyper growth is over. To that I say - great - give me Coke's mulitiple and we should be between $900-$1000 on stock price. In addition, where was Tony at $704? NOW he decides to make this call --- people actually get paid for this nonsense? It's infuriating. RE: Sacconaghi - He has cautioned a miss for last 2 quarters (and as much as we dont want to admit it - he was right). Toni would agree with you 100% regarding KO mutliple. He maintains his $800. Hopefully, he says on fast money - even if you assume that growth slows to 15-20% for the next 3 years, AAPL is worth $800. (Read value stock). If, as ppl here project, it grows faster, then growth managers will buy in a panic (hopefully). Again - can't chop up the world into time frames and say you are correct. I would argue, if he was right the last two times, how many times was he right the last eight to twelve times? Two times does not make a great sample so I stand by how methodology can be twisted to say whatever you would like it to say. But let's agree to disagree on Tony ... it's not worth the typing and I need to go buy gas on my even day here in NY
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Post by rickag on Nov 14, 2012 9:50:34 GMT -8
Would you be willing to share your source for these numbers? I haven't looked into this at all but should probably start. Oh sure it's no secret. I get them from: www.poweropt.com/partnerdetail.asp?txtsymbol=aapl&co=olNow for some reason to not get the constant registration request I simply change the symbol in the web page address. Thanks for the link. I did notice that they have AAPL institutional ownership @ only 59%. If true and it has been as high as 70% maybe they will begin buying shortly. I hope.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 14, 2012 9:55:25 GMT -8
(...) lots of traders do just look at charts... Those making $$ have better charts than that one though.
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Post by zzmac on Nov 14, 2012 10:01:15 GMT -8
Samsung maybe. My friend works in PR and his job is to get articles written about his clients in the NY Times, the WSJ etc.. Someone somewhere is paying top dollar to get negative articles written about Apple. It doesn't make any sense any other way. It's just 12 rounds of getting punched in the face. None of these stories even make a lot of sense or they are just spun in a horrible way and it's daily.
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Post by madmaxroi on Nov 14, 2012 10:10:08 GMT -8
Oh, and BTW, if I hear the word FISCAL CLIFF one more time I am going to SCREEEEEEAAAAAMMMMM.
CNBC now has a time bomb clock for this now widely overused phrase.
With the latest AAPL press, I am reconsidering the free speeach amendment. Jusk kidding, of course, but it makes one wonder.
Hey, a shout out to CNBC. Run a story comparing AAPL's chart to say, Enron why don't you. I'm sure you could find some parallels there.
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Post by ibuyer on Nov 14, 2012 10:10:19 GMT -8
RE: Sacconaghi - He has cautioned a miss for last 2 quarters (and as much as we dont want to admit it - he was right). Toni would agree with you 100% regarding KO mutliple. He maintains his $800. Hopefully, he says on fast money - even if you assume that growth slows to 15-20% for the next 3 years, AAPL is worth $800. (Read value stock). If, as ppl here project, it grows faster, then growth managers will buy in a panic (hopefully). Again - can't chop up the world into time frames and say you are correct. I would argue, if he was right the last two times, how many times was he right the last eight to twelve times? Two times does not make a great sample so I stand by how methodology can be twisted to say whatever you would like it to say. But let's agree to disagree on Tony ... it's not worth the typing and I need to go buy gas on my even day here in NY Toni has had outperform since 2009 with over a dozen upgraded price targets along the way. Out of all sell siders, he has a balanced view. BTW, pls dont make it personal. I share your frustration about AAPLs stock price.
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Post by ibuyer on Nov 14, 2012 10:13:32 GMT -8
(...) lots of traders do just look at charts... Those making $$ have better charts than that one though. ditto Any lessons learned to improve risk managment without giving up too much on upside?
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Post by ibuyer on Nov 14, 2012 10:20:00 GMT -8
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 14, 2012 10:38:19 GMT -8
Again - can't chop up the world into time frames and say you are correct. I would argue, if he was right the last two times, how many times was he right the last eight to twelve times? Two times does not make a great sample so I stand by how methodology can be twisted to say whatever you would like it to say. But let's agree to disagree on Tony ... it's not worth the typing and I need to go buy gas on my even day here in NY Toni has had outperform since 2009 with over a dozen upgraded price targets along the way. Out of all sell siders, he has a balanced view. BTW, pls dont make it personal. I share your frustration about AAPLs stock price. Ohhh...nooo! Email,blogs, etc., again, carry no tone. This is in NO WAY personal. I was debating an issue. We can agree to disagree but there certainly is zero affront on you personally - I may get passionate when I address an issue but I am not taking a shot in ANY personal way.
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Post by spoonman on Nov 14, 2012 10:38:42 GMT -8
The day to day news is just out of control. These blogs need to knock it off and slow the F down. Five different apple rumor stories a day on these blogs and I wouldn't mind them but people seem to take them as gospel and the mainstream news also grabs onto it. Also blogs like Engadget and The Verge that are blogs that try and pass themselves off like real news outlooks are probably worse.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 14, 2012 10:53:56 GMT -8
Sellers may be getting tired. Maybe.
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Post by Rupert on Nov 14, 2012 10:58:17 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Nov 14, 2012 11:01:02 GMT -8
A few nice boring days after the terror from the past few weeks is a nice relief...maybe one of these weeks we'll see a nice green week.
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Post by spoonman on Nov 14, 2012 11:01:47 GMT -8
It appears he already fixed it. nice.
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 14, 2012 11:04:35 GMT -8
I know Obama is still speaking but in the meantime the FOMC is also getting their minutes out: FOMC Minutes: a number of participants indicate more asset purchases would likely be appropriate next year Fed says a number on FOMC favored more quantitative easing after Operation Twist
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Post by Deleted on Nov 14, 2012 11:09:37 GMT -8
Good to see AAPL outperforming the market today again.
Watching Obamas Q&A - hoping to hear some good questions regarding how they are going to resolve the tax/spending issues, but most of the questions are pointless ones about generals affairs and that Libya attack.
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Post by lance on Nov 14, 2012 12:05:12 GMT -8
sadly 8 straight down weeks looking more likely. If consider the fact there is basically no trading around xmas and new years AAPL is now approximately 8 weeks from the earnings call. How about we have a similar looking 8 week bull run into earnings. I personally don't see it happening, but you can always dream.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 14, 2012 12:08:58 GMT -8
Heading to the bomb shelter
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Post by Nevyn on Nov 14, 2012 12:13:25 GMT -8
Look at the chart last year. Big run up in Dec and Jan. It will happen again this year.
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Post by appledoc on Nov 14, 2012 12:13:59 GMT -8
We're going to continue to get dragged down by the ugliness of the broad market.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 14, 2012 12:14:18 GMT -8
Sigh. More weeks of winter? We'll see.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 14, 2012 12:15:38 GMT -8
What was the low we saw last week?
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Post by aapl4kiki on Nov 14, 2012 12:15:55 GMT -8
Heading to the bomb shelter Seems like we're destined for one last push into the 520s before we start a slow ascent into earnings. The FUD is relentless.
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mark
fire starter
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Post by mark on Nov 14, 2012 12:16:46 GMT -8
I'm with ya brother! My average cost is about 7.6. I look at the loss and think oh crap but then again Apr is a long way given almost two earnings coming. That's the riskiest stuff I have IMHO. Big believer if you are wrong it's better be wrong together or united on our wrongness :-) I think only one earnings report (week of 21-Jan) until April's expire.
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Post by fas550 on Nov 14, 2012 12:19:39 GMT -8
The only positive in today's action so far... Is we are down less in percentage than the NAS and DOW. That is a positive change.
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Post by lance on Nov 14, 2012 12:19:53 GMT -8
AAPL the stock on sale no buyers - apple products on sale you get riots.
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Post by fas550 on Nov 14, 2012 12:22:39 GMT -8
Interesting: the amount of capital held by individual investors and their financial managers is 19trillion which is far more than institutional investors. As reported by George Roberts, KKR Co
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