Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 18, 2012 11:43:21 GMT -8
Agreed, Cl4 - I don't care if it doesn't necessarily yield better results (right away), building your own estimation model helps you understand Apple better.
Get a general feel for unit sales/ASP trends. And don't forget the 14-to-13 week compare! Normalize for the bigger picture. We have an early thread going for fiscal Q1 2013 if anyone wants to join in.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 18, 2012 12:14:31 GMT -8
I played with an iPad mini yesterday for about 10 minutes - I'm definitely getting one for my wife for Xmas, and am pondering whether or not to get one for myself. It felt so much more comfortable for reading compared to my iPad 3. The screen was far better than my old iPad 1. When I read this this morning it reminded me how my husband used to buy my son when he was little all the toys HE (my husband) really wanted for Christmas. Then he would spend hours playing with my son's toys. So what else will your wife get for Christmas? I can only imagine! ;D Lol - I learnt my lesson the one time I bought her a blender - she was not impressed, but I made some mean cocktails!
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Post by Deleted on Nov 18, 2012 12:18:19 GMT -8
And that is a good number, except that it is only a dollar above last years Qtr. Apple is being held to the 14 week qtr. Unfair yes, but not surprising. What has happened to AAPL is the lowering of the analyst projections for Q1. They have been lowered from 15 EPS to 13 EPS. That is very significant. With WS factoring in an EPS contraction it will be hard for AAPL to go to climb. That translates to WS expecting ttm to drop to 43 from the 44 we are at now. Personally, I think $15 EPS is fair to expect with a top of $16 EPS. The one hope is that TC will also offer a like for like comparison with the 14 week quarter on the earnings conference call, which he will be able to do seeing as he will know the 1st week of Q2 sales by that time. So of course they would report the normal 13 week quarter result, but in remarks he can say the higher 14 week comparison number. Not a normal thing to do, but on this one occasion it might be warranted.
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Post by macziggy on Nov 18, 2012 12:39:54 GMT -8
Tonight, someone bought my iPad 3 16G WiFi on Ebay for $425. Think of that. For another $75, that person could have bought a new iPad 4, but they bought mine instead. These things are HOT. This tells you how badly people are willing to go to get Apple stuff. I was truly amazed. Don't forget sales tax. Depending on the state it could amount to $50 + the $75. Personally, it would have to be scratch free for me to pay that much. Yes, my iPad 3 is immaculate and still has 9 months on the original warranty, but I was still very surprised to get $425 for it. Even the Apple store has refurbs for under $400. I plan to get an iPad 4. I was not happy with the WiFi speed on the iPad 3. My MBP is much faster, so, I hope the improvements in the iPad 4 will make me happier. The Retina display is amazing. And, I love being able to read my favorite magazines on the iPad. The video links in some stories make the platform very powerful. The paper versions just can't compare when you can get the whole experience on an iPad.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 18, 2012 12:41:21 GMT -8
Well Phoebes, your team is now number 1. (I think I am going to puke ;D) I think ND will beat USC next week and have a date with Bama or Georgia. Hey we need to give 2 other football shout outs. Rutgers won yesterday too - they are having an incredible season - only one loss this year. My friend's son is going to be their QB next year so I'm rooting for them as well. And of course - THE GAME was played yesterday for the 129th time - Harvard vs. Yale - and Harvard won for the SIXTH straight time...nice....34-24! Uh, excuse me, but out here on the West Coast, "THE GAME" is where the almighty UCLA Bruins beat USC yesterday. We haven't done that in a while. Turns out, with eligible, non-professional players, USC doesn't seem to dominate like they used to. The Bruins are 9-2 under first-year coach Jim Mora and a frosh QB, and could be 11-0 with a couple of breaks. And as far as I am concerned, real sports schools have both successful football and basketball programs. Go Bruins!
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Post by roni on Nov 18, 2012 12:50:08 GMT -8
I think Andy Zaky and Nick Nansen are great, but there are only a part of what I pay attention to when making Apple investment decisions.
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Post by macziggy on Nov 18, 2012 13:52:38 GMT -8
Well Phoebes, your team is now number 1. (I think I am going to puke ;D) I think ND will beat USC next week and have a date with Bama or Georgia. That would be my team too!! GO ND!! Half my family went to Notre Dame....the other half went to Penn State with a few oddballs like me thrown in who ventured off the family path. BTW, my father was the last man cut from the 1953 Notre Dame varsity football team (he was a tackle). That never ceased to make him wince!! He would be screaming at the top of his lungs today if he were still alive now that they have captured the #1 post. He'd be getting those alumni tickets for the BCS Championship Game at the Orange Bowl and booking a flight!!
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Post by kloot on Nov 18, 2012 15:19:09 GMT -8
And that is a good number, except that it is only a dollar above last years Qtr. Apple is being held to the 14 week qtr. Unfair yes, but not surprising. What has happened to AAPL is the lowering of the analyst projections for Q1. They have been lowered from 15 EPS to 13 EPS. That is very significant. With WS factoring in an EPS contraction it will be hard for AAPL to go to climb. That translates to WS expecting ttm to drop to 43 from the 44 we are at now. Personally, I think $15 EPS is fair to expect with a top of $16 EPS. The one hope is that TC will also offer a like for like comparison with the 14 week quarter on the earnings conference call, which he will be able to do seeing as he will know the 1st week of Q2 sales by that time. So of course they would report the normal 13 week quarter result, but in remarks he can say the higher 14 week comparison number. Not a normal thing to do, but on this one occasion it might be warranted. +1 hopefully they just say what last year's number comparatively would have been when "normalized" to a 13 week quarter. people are too stupid/lazy to do the math. Oppie needs to hammer this home in the results and call. I was sufficiently satisfied with the multiple times he brought it up during the last ER call. but surprisingly, even people on this forum are still having trouble with the concept. plus, the revenue guidance is what matters, and it's a huge increase. EPS can be highly manipulated (which Apple generally doesn't do), otherwise they wouldn't ever miss.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 18, 2012 15:28:08 GMT -8
"Normalizing" is easy. Two ways to do it:
Take Oppenheimer's word for it: 1/14 of revs, adjust everything by 1/14 (obviously less revenue leverage would have some effect on profitability, but it's so hard to quantify, just forget about it).
Or apply varying degrees of skepticism to Oppenheimer's claim that the 14th week was like any other week. I assume the 14th week to be a decent holiday sales week, so I treat a "normalized" 13-week fiscal Q1 2012 as being 92% of what it actually was (close enough to a 1/13 adjustment).
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 18, 2012 15:47:06 GMT -8
Any Patriots fans on this Board? This game is ridiculous - geez.
You know what's really amazing...I remember when beer commercials were the largest part of the aired ads during football games - now it's all about phones, laptops, or tablets...it's unbelievable....EVERY COMMERCIAL!
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 18, 2012 15:52:36 GMT -8
Andy Zaky's tweet: "Don't make assumptions about Apple January 2014. That would be a huge mistake." Isn't that precisely what he did by guaranteeing $1000 by then? His next Twitter says; "There is pages and pages of evidence for Apple $1000 that we will share in the coming months. Suspend judgement for now." So I think we have time to figure this out. Additionally I wouldn't rule out $1000 by Jan 14, still need to see additional data points. I sure wouldn't rule it out. We spent most of 2011 orbiting 350-ish. After that lovely summer run from 310 to 404, come fall, we took three (remember, THREE!) roundtrips to the equator...each downwave retracing 50-100% of the previous upwave. If you'd told me on one of those hellacious visits that in less than a year, the share price would double, I never would have believed it. (And I did think Andy was nuts for buying JUL'12 480/500 bull spreads at the time. ) So, we just visited almost-500, once again retracing 50% of our gains from 310 (to 705). What are the chances we double within a year? Well, crazier things have happened. I was trolling my chart archives today and found a chart from last year with my annotations. Check it out... AAPL DAILY CHART from 2011: (with my notes from 12-30-11) Another shot, showing the daily SMA-200 at the time:
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 18, 2012 16:01:23 GMT -8
"Fundamentally" *cough*, Zaky is right...particularly in markets like these, those who trade are best served IF/THEN-ing scenarios more than predicting near-term targets and hoping for the best.
Let's get over the SMA-50 weekly first. Look to 550-560 before 600 and for sure before even thinking about 700 again.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 18, 2012 16:02:51 GMT -8
Interesting. US futures have opened mildly optimistic. Of course futures have been about as reliable as a weathervane during high winds lately.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 18, 2012 16:03:46 GMT -8
"Fundamentally" *cough*, Zaky is right...particularly in markets like these, those who trade are best served IF/THEN-ing scenarios more than predicting near-term targets and hoping for the best. Let's get over the SMA-50 weekly first. Look to 550-560 before 600 and for sure before even thinking about 700 again. Ditto on all of this. Level by level...
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Post by capablanca on Nov 18, 2012 16:24:53 GMT -8
I was having very similar thoughts while gazing at my 5 year weekly chart. Along about October '08 we hit a bottom in the low 80s, and then spiked well over 10% in one or two days. Then we traded in a range (granted a pretty big one) for four or five months. Along the way there were two or three more chances to buy at 80 before the big multi-year run up. Back then there were the cancer scares, the claims that iPhone was an over priced toy, the Zune was to kill iPod and Amazon would kill iTunes. Today it is "the law of large numbers", no innovation without SJ, profit margins eroding, Windows 8 tablets, Andorid, Samsung, and Kindle. Big Bird raises a good question. Are there still a lot of weak hands (silicon or otherwise) that are going to sell the the rallies? I don't like it, but we may very well get one or more chances to buy under 500. Of course a great 1Q might have something to say about that. But can 1Q really be great? The "strong" dollar, complete lack of iMacs, short supply of iPhone and iPad, along with ramp up costs could mean that a little over Apple's guidance is all we are going to get. There will always be news of some sort of other to explain what happened, regardless of whether that was the real reason or not. As for strong and weak hands, in a market where 95% of the trades are done by machines that may only hold the stock for very short periods of time, it's now more a case of momentum, chasing it up and chasing it down. The downside momentum doesn't suddenly stop in the same way that an oil tanker can't suddenly go into reverse. The more damage that is done to AAPL's charts, the longer it takes to turn that around. I do believe that once things do turn around we will see something akin to the ramp that occurred in the middle of 2008. Yes, I think we are stating the same thing. You in English; I in American.
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Post by tuffett on Nov 18, 2012 16:25:13 GMT -8
I for one believe $1,000 can happen by Jan 2014. However, I certainly don't think it's a lock and I certainly won't be planning any trades around that number (besides maybe some play money). I just take issue with the level of certainty he says it - to the uninitiated investor it can be just as dangerous as a bear spreading FUD.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 18, 2012 16:57:13 GMT -8
Level by level.
$1000 needs a lot of things:
1) Swelling confidence in AAPL/Apple (NEVER assured, no matter how successful Apple gets and for how long it maintains its success and what kinds of actual products its creates)
2) Decent or better US/world economy (maybe someday!)
3) Earnings growth that won't spook investors (tricky, because it's likely Apple's revs and earnings growth will slow, which is no surprise given the ginormous bases it's building from)
just to name three.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 18, 2012 17:05:55 GMT -8
Level by level. $1000 needs a lot of things: (...) Note to self: If we run to 1000 next year, prepare for potential retrace to 700. Ignore rockets and coiled springs and calls for "last chance to buy in the 900s." ;D
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 18, 2012 17:11:04 GMT -8
Be sure to remind me too. AAPL will be a <20 (even <15?) multiple stock until proven otherwise. Just gotta try to operate within those parameters.
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Post by rosie on Nov 18, 2012 17:11:29 GMT -8
Level by level. $1000 needs a lot of things: (...) Note to self: If we run to 1000 next year, prepare for potential retrace to 700. Ignore rockets and coiled springs and calls for "last chance to buy in the 900s." ;D I am making a very large mental note of your "note to self"...thanx as usual. also, for those of us still waiting for the new iMacs, customer service now says the 21.5 " will be available for order by Black Friday. I can only assume that is 2012 BF...
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 18, 2012 18:56:19 GMT -8
Well Phoebes, your team is now number 1. (I think I am going to puke ;D) I think ND will beat USC next week and have a date with Bama or Georgia. Rutgers won yesterday too - they are having an incredible season - only one loss this year. My friend's son is going to be their QB next year so I'm rooting for them as well. I'm looking forward to Chris Laviano coming to the banks, Phoebes. But he'll be red-shirted next year, because Gary Nova is only a sophomore. But I'm happy he's coming.
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 18, 2012 19:03:06 GMT -8
Rutgers won yesterday too - they are having an incredible season - only one loss this year. My friend's son is going to be their QB next year so I'm rooting for them as well. I'm looking forward to Chris Laviano coming to the banks, Phoebes. But he'll be red-shirted next year, because Gary Nova is only a sophomore. But I'm happy he's coming. Chris is such a good kid -- we are neighbors and life long friends -- but I wouldn't count him out on not being a potential starter. We'll see what happens. Either way - there are big shoes to fill there. Also - why would red-shirting do anything? That would only get Gary to Junior year - how does that help?
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 18, 2012 19:25:38 GMT -8
I'm looking forward to Chris Laviano coming to the banks, Phoebes. But he'll be red-shirted next year, because Gary Nova is only a sophomore. But I'm happy he's coming. Chris is such a good kid -- we are neighbors and life long friends -- but I wouldn't count him out on not being a potential starter. We'll see what happens. Either way - there are big shoes to fill there. Also - why would red-shirting do anything? That would only get Gary to Junior year - how does that help? It's harder to break in when you have a starting QB, as well as a clear #2 (Dodd). As good as Chris is, the game is much faster at the next level, and most kids need to time to a) adapt to the speed, b) get into the strength & conditioning program, c) learn the offense, and d) adjust to college life. It's very rare when you get a true freshman making any contribution, must less a meaningful one. Even Ray Rice didn't start his freshman year, and didn't start playing meaningful minutes until mid-season. There's no rush for Chris. He'll have a very good career, and the fifth year gives him a chance to get a Masters degree.
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Post by aapl4kiki on Nov 18, 2012 19:45:31 GMT -8
The upside momentum in AAPL from early this year sure stopped fast and rather violently. So is it only uptrends that retrace quickly? For the record I'm not even sure 575 by end of year is in the cards. But AAPL is no NFLX, and it's the most beaten-up blue chip amongst blue chips that earn their status (INTC...not so much). It only makes sense that a 200-point selloff will take time to "heal". But this is also a very different stock to be following...one that STILL has a lower multiple than WMT and IBM. At some point, technicals do not tell the whole story. When the smoke clears, the chart's label becomes visible again. And buyers remember this isn't just any other company's stock. Tonight, someone bought my iPad 3 16G WiFi on Ebay for $425. Think of that. For another $75, that person could have bought a new iPad 4, but they bought mine instead. These things are HOT. This tells you how badly people are willing to go to get Apple stuff. I was truly amazed. Careful. Lots of scammers out there in the resale market for these things. Craigslist/Paypal scheme is everywhere.
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Post by johng on Nov 18, 2012 20:07:34 GMT -8
If we can justify a GM of 40 %, iPhone sales over 50 M, and a bunch of other numbers, then I can start to think about $ 15 EPS. Build from the bottom up with unit sales please, not percentage increases. My set of Q1 spreadsheets varies from $ 13.9 to $ 16. The $ 16 is what I call -- smoking on all cylinders. I can't see that happening. Close to $15 with 49.5 million iPhones, 38.5% GM and a bunch of other numbers, but it is rough at this point. Ron Just a gentle reminder that Apple's #2 market (Europe) is in recession so sales will be light there. cheers JohnG
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 18, 2012 20:14:04 GMT -8
How light? Apple 10-K for reference: files.shareholder.com/downloads/AAPL/1776162029x0x610219/112dd7d2-e33a-44ad-b4ea-8870c5dd9281/AAPL_10K_FY12_10.31.12.pdfGood thing Asia-Pacific is really starting to take off, huh (I think it'll surpass Europe-area sales in 2013 rather handily). And considering Europe _has_ been in stagnation and more than a little uncertainty for fiscal 2012? 31% YOY growth isn't that bad, or concerning going forward. Interestingly, Japan had a HUGE surge in YOY sales that I don't think can be entirely attributed to the earthquake/tsunami/nuclear power plant tragedy slowing down purchases in Apple's fiscal '11. Also interesting, Asia-Pacific grew more slowly than you'd think in fiscal 2012, but explainable by a variety of plausible reasons - including delayed iPad availability, no Siri in Asia until very recently, holding out for an iPad mini, etc. I expect Apple to get better results out of that region for fiscal '13, particularly with the iPad mini. I see a good solid quarter out of Apple for fiscal Q1 2013. My baseline is $14.37 EPS.
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Post by aapl4kiki on Nov 18, 2012 20:20:18 GMT -8
Hey we need to give 2 other football shout outs. Rutgers won yesterday too - they are having an incredible season - only one loss this year. My friend's son is going to be their QB next year so I'm rooting for them as well. And of course - THE GAME was played yesterday for the 129th time - Harvard vs. Yale - and Harvard won for the SIXTH straight time...nice....34-24! Uh, excuse me, but out here on the West Coast, "THE GAME" is where the almighty UCLA Bruins beat USC yesterday. We haven't done that in a while. Turns out, with eligible, non-professional players, USC doesn't seem to dominate like they used to. The Bruins are 9-2 under first-year coach Jim Mora and a frosh QB, and could be 11-0 with a couple of breaks. And as far as I am concerned, real sports schools have both successful football and basketball programs. Go Bruins! Great game for the bRuins yesterday. But come on. A couple breaks? 43-17 loss to a bad (really bad) Cal. That's quite a few breaks needed.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Nov 18, 2012 20:30:30 GMT -8
The Packer game was a kind of disgrace. My friend Jeff was constantly cracking sarcasm: "another hand off to (James) Starks", a Packer running back.
I understand that the Packers have several key players on the injured roster, but that does not answer the question of where the passing game went to. Hello, Packer coaches -- why are you not letting Aaron Rodgers throw the ball more,
It was a clumsy win at best.
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icam
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Post by icam on Nov 18, 2012 20:47:28 GMT -8
Level by level. $1000 needs a lot of things: (...) Note to self: If we run to 1000 next year, prepare for potential retrace to 700. Ignore rockets and coiled springs and calls for "last chance to buy in the 900s." ;D +1,000,000 including put spreads and cash
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Post by macziggy on Nov 18, 2012 22:08:44 GMT -8
Tonight, someone bought my iPad 3 16G WiFi on Ebay for $425. Think of that. For another $75, that person could have bought a new iPad 4, but they bought mine instead. These things are HOT. This tells you how badly people are willing to go to get Apple stuff. I was truly amazed. Careful. Lots of scammers out there in the resale market for these things. Craigslist/Paypal scheme is everywhere. HUH? The money is now sitting in my PayPal account and I'm shipping the iPad 3 tomorrow. Scam? NO. Just huge demand obviously! But, thanks for the heads up.
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