Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Aug 4, 2017 2:34:46 GMT -8
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Post by rickag on Aug 4, 2017 4:07:06 GMT -8
Actually seeing the numbers for our children's debt for just Treasuries is disturbing. Japan: $1.1113 trillion China: $1.1022 trillion The top 2 alone are astounding.
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Post by rob_london on Aug 4, 2017 4:51:21 GMT -8
Argus Research report on Apple this week:
"Our more forward-looking, two- and three-stage discounted free cash flow model renders a value north of $280 per share, in a rising trend. Our blended fundamental valuation model points to a price above $245, also in a rising trend".
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Post by CdnPhoto on Aug 4, 2017 5:18:22 GMT -8
Argus Research report on Apple this week: "Our more forward-looking, two- and three-stage discounted free cash flow model renders a value north of $280 per share, in a rising trend. Our blended fundamental valuation model points to a price above $245, also in a rising trend". Link?
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Post by incorrigible on Aug 4, 2017 5:32:53 GMT -8
Argus Research report on Apple this week: "Our more forward-looking, two- and three-stage discounted free cash flow model renders a value north of $280 per share, in a rising trend. Our blended fundamental valuation model points to a price above $245, also in a rising trend". They can have my shares right now at the discounted price of $200 per share. Such a deal.
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Post by artman1033 on Aug 4, 2017 5:40:08 GMT -8
OOOH! live on the television now: MY President, POTUS, Donald Trump, just announced the FoxConn deal in Wisconsin.... $10 Billion investment, MASSIVE subsidies by Wisconsin ( Probably), 3000 initial jobs, 12,000 possible jobs. MADISON - Gov. Scott Walker's top aides urged lawmakers Thursday to approve environmental exemptions and up to $3 billion in subsidies to land a display screen manufacturer, with one cabinet official calling it a "once in a generation, maybe once in a century, opportunity for our state." In exchange for state incentives and still undisclosed aid from local governments, Foxconn Technology Group has agreed to hire thousands of workers and invest up to $10 billion in the massive factory. "The Foxconn payroll, when fully up to speed, will be up to $800 million a year," Department of Administration Secretary Scott Neitzel said. "We cannot let this opportunity pass us by." www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2017/08/03/lawmakers-take-testimony-wisconsins-3-billion-subsidy-bill-foxconn/536088001/WHOA! Wisconsin state subsidies work out to $1 million per job?
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,353
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Post by bud777 on Aug 4, 2017 6:46:19 GMT -8
OOOH! live on the television now: MY President, POTUS, Donald Trump, just announced the FoxConn deal in Wisconsin.... $10 Billion investment, MASSIVE subsidies by Wisconsin ( Probably), 3000 initial jobs, 12,000 possible jobs. MADISON - Gov. Scott Walker's top aides urged lawmakers Thursday to approve environmental exemptions and up to $3 billion in subsidies to land a display screen manufacturer, with one cabinet official calling it a "once in a generation, maybe once in a century, opportunity for our state." In exchange for state incentives and still undisclosed aid from local governments, Foxconn Technology Group has agreed to hire thousands of workers and invest up to $10 billion in the massive factory. "The Foxconn payroll, when fully up to speed, will be up to $800 million a year," Department of Administration Secretary Scott Neitzel said. "We cannot let this opportunity pass us by." www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2017/08/03/lawmakers-take-testimony-wisconsins-3-billion-subsidy-bill-foxconn/536088001/WHOA! Wisconsin state subsidies work out to $1 million per job?, I cannot tell if this post is genuine or sarcastic. Regardless, it is inaccurate. Subsidies could range from $17,300 to $39,200 per job. The national average is about $2,400 per job. I know nothing about job creation subsidies, but I did actually read the article. I am beginning to believe that the larger the font or the louder the voice, the more one needs to fact check. A subsidy of $39,200 to create a job that will have a salary of $53,900 sounds extreme to me. This is the kind of deal that a colonial power makes to exploit its colonies.
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Post by macster on Aug 4, 2017 7:10:24 GMT -8
MADISON - Gov. Scott Walker's top aides urged lawmakers Thursday to approve environmental exemptions and up to $3 billion in subsidies to land a display screen manufacturer, with one cabinet official calling it a "once in a generation, maybe once in a century, opportunity for our state." In exchange for state incentives and still undisclosed aid from local governments, Foxconn Technology Group has agreed to hire thousands of workers and invest up to $10 billion in the massive factory. "The Foxconn payroll, when fully up to speed, will be up to $800 million a year," Department of Administration Secretary Scott Neitzel said. "We cannot let this opportunity pass us by." www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2017/08/03/lawmakers-take-testimony-wisconsins-3-billion-subsidy-bill-foxconn/536088001/WHOA! Wisconsin state subsidies work out to $1 million per job?, I cannot tell if this post is genuine or sarcastic. Regardless, it is inaccurate. Subsidies could range from $17,300 to $39,200 per job. The national average is about $2,400 per job. I know nothing about job creation subsidies, but I did actually read the article. I am beginning to believe that the larger the font or the louder the voice, the more one needs to fact check. A subsidy of $39,200 to create a job that will have a salary of $53,900 sounds extreme to me. This is the kind of deal that a colonial power makes to exploit its colonies. Over time these jobs pay medicare taxes, income taxes, local taxes, spending money for local businesses. RE taxes, state tax, etc. people happy, voting for repos in the next election... WI turning RED? (not russia/china red) Good leadership nevertheless. More manufacturing here is US. Overall though a win win for everyone.
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Post by artman1033 on Aug 4, 2017 8:15:42 GMT -8
MADISON - Gov. Scott Walker's top aides urged lawmakers Thursday to approve environmental exemptions and up to $3 billion in subsidies to land a display screen manufacturer, with one cabinet official calling it a "once in a generation, maybe once in a century, opportunity for our state." In exchange for state incentives and still undisclosed aid from local governments, Foxconn Technology Group has agreed to hire thousands of workers and invest up to $10 billion in the massive factory. "The Foxconn payroll, when fully up to speed, will be up to $800 million a year," Department of Administration Secretary Scott Neitzel said. "We cannot let this opportunity pass us by." www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2017/08/03/lawmakers-take-testimony-wisconsins-3-billion-subsidy-bill-foxconn/536088001/WHOA! Wisconsin state subsidies work out to $1 million per job?, I cannot tell if this post is genuine or sarcastic. Regardless, it is inaccurate. Subsidies could range from $17,300 to $39,200 per job. The national average is about $2,400 per job. I know nothing about job creation subsidies, but I did actually read the article. I am beginning to believe that the larger the font or the louder the voice, the more one needs to fact check. A subsidy of $39,200 to create a job that will have a salary of $53,900 sounds extreme to me. This is the kind of deal that a colonial power makes to exploit its colonies. I am just pointing out the BIAS in the article........... From the article: "The company could qualify for up to $200 million in annual cash payments from the state for up to 15 years, for a total of $2.85 billion plus another $150 million in sales tax exemptions on construction materials." $3 BILLION divided by 13,000 jobs =$230,769.23 per job............... I am ALL for jobs in manufacturing..... There will be 1000s of other jobs created to serve these 13,000 families. it just seems like a lot of money. "The incentive package would also: Allow the company or its contractors to discharge dredged material and fill into wetlands without state permits. Let the company build on a riverbed or lakebed, connect artificial bodies of water with natural waterways and change the course of streams without getting state permits. The Foxconn plant is expected to need large amounts of water from Lake Michigan. Authorize lower utility rates for Foxconn for at least 10 years and allow transmission lines to be relocated without state approval."
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Post by Luckychoices on Aug 4, 2017 12:53:01 GMT -8
I encourage members to read both the article and Wiseyou's comment and I'd be interested to read your thoughts or agreement/disagreement with either. I'll disagree with this part: because it's simply not true. Nor is it true for the 5 year chart (if you're comparing against the NASDAQ). I'd be weary of someone so focused on how amazing AAPL is that he can't take 30 seconds and do some simple fact checking on the statements he makes. He would likely not see any signs of trouble if it hit him in the face. First of all, tuffett, thanks for responding, because I *did* ask for thoughts from the board and, really, you were the only member who responded. For the usefulness and longevity of the board, I believe it's important to have more discussion than we typically have these days and I used Wiseyou's comment because I think he would be a good person to have as a member to help further that discussion. From reading a number of his comments on SA, I believe him to be intelligent, thoughtful and objective in his comments regarding Apple. That being said, I was surprised by your snarky comment about Wiseyou. Granted, AAPL had a huge pullback in 2016, but if you look at the chart I've enclosed, I'm not seeing anything that would make me think, "...he can't take 30 seconds and do some simple fact checking on the statements he makes". Even though AAPL lagged the markets for the greater portion of the last two years, it appears to have outperformed the markets over the last 6 months of that period, which I believe is all he was saying.
We have to face the facts. I am bullish on AAPL's future, but the fact is AAPL has been a market laggard for over 5 years (with much higher volatility). For all its success as a business, an investor would have been better off buying the index, or any FANG stock. Of course, those that bought decades ago don't really care, but not all of us are so lucky. I would have been much better off putting my money elsewhere. But going forward, I'm still betting largely on AAPL. I would agree that AAPL has been a market laggard over 5 years and with higher volatility, but, for the most part, AAPL Longs are used to that volatility and understand that, because Apple is a punching bag for any stock analyst that's trying to get or maintain a reputation, the volatility is likely to continue. I have to say that I believe bud777 nailed it when he stated that he's given up on fundamentals and technicals because the only pattern he's seen since 2006 is the herd. So yes, looking back, you're correct. You would have been much better off putting your money elsewhere. Unfortunately, to me, it's like saying I wish I'd chosen the *winning* lotto numbers, instead of the ones that I did. I have given up on fundamentals and technicals. They were both solid when we dropped from 700 to 385 and they were both solid when we dropped from 130 to 90. The only pattern that I have seen since 2006 is the herd. When I mortgaged the house and bought AAPL with it, I didn't know if it would continue to drop or turn around and I didn't really care. I knew that sometime in the next 7 years it would be a lot higher and that has happened. Every time I trusted my spidey sense, I was dead wrong
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Post by rickag on Aug 4, 2017 13:25:35 GMT -8
Whether Apple outperformed other stocks or not becomes problematic for anyone with long term large holdings of AAPL in a taxable account.
The lowest capital gains tax is 15%, and is higher for others in higher income brackets. Taking a minimum 15% haircut means any other investments are already at least at a 15% disadvantage.
Unfortunately, this distorts the market ensuring many people hold stocks they may otherwise invest in other stocks and/or diversify. They hold unless the outlook of their holdings becomes untenable. For large mutual funds the situation is similar.
If a large mutual fund divests large holdings, especially in growth funds, their clients can get hit with unexpected taxes and they do complain to their advisors, loudly.
I don't have the answers, but taxes and regulation always have unintended consequences.
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Post by appledoc on Aug 4, 2017 13:59:59 GMT -8
Apple Watch news is huge. Looks like I'll finally be buying one.
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Post by Luckychoices on Aug 4, 2017 14:11:56 GMT -8
Whether Apple outperformed other stocks or not becomes problematic for anyone with long term large holdings of AAPL in a taxable account. The lowest capital gains tax is 15%, and is higher for others in higher income brackets. Taking a minimum 15% haircut means any other investments are already at least at a 15% disadvantage. Unfortunately, this distorts the market ensuring many people hold stocks they may otherwise invest in other stocks and/or diversify. They hold unless the outlook of their holdings becomes untenable. For large mutual funds the situation is similar. If a large mutual fund divests large holdings, especially in growth funds, their clients can get hit with unexpected taxes and they do complain to their advisors, loudly. I don't have the answers, but taxes and regulation always have unintended consequences. I readily admit to being one of the more unsophisticated investors on this board and you make good points, rick. Since 61% of our AAPL is in our IRA accounts, we could sell AAPL and invest in other stocks with no tax penalties at all_so I sometimes forget that *if* we only held AAPL in taxable accounts and wanted to sell our AAPL shares, taxes would be a *big* problem.
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Post by tuffett on Aug 4, 2017 14:13:38 GMT -8
Even though AAPL lagged the markets for the greater portion of the last two years, it appears to have outperformed the markets over the last 6 months of that period, which I believe is all he was saying. Oh, come on. I even quoted him for you. He said two years, not six months. Or are you asking me to listen to what he means and not what he says? Sounds awfully Trump-esque if you ask me. Agree with the rest of your post re:hindsight. I was just making the point that AAPL hasn't been that great of an investment in the last 5ish years compared to other large cap tech.
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Post by Luckychoices on Aug 4, 2017 15:21:46 GMT -8
Even though AAPL lagged the markets for the greater portion of the last two years, it appears to have outperformed the markets over the last 6 months of that period, which I believe is all he was saying. Oh, come on. I even quoted him for you. He said two years, not six months. Or are you asking me to listen to what he means and not what he says? Oh, come on? If two people compete in a marathon against one another, can the loser take solace in having been ahead for 15 of the 26 miles? If you look at the chart I enclosed, I see Apple beating the markets at the *start* of the two year period and then again at the *end*. Therefore, they outperformed the market over the last two years. Sounds awfully Trump-esque if you ask me. Nice one. Complete miss though. You must be thinking of a different member. Agree with the rest of your post re:hindsight. I was just making the point that AAPL hasn't been that great of an investment in the last 5ish years compared to other large cap tech. And, unlike most other large cap tech stocks, Apple has ben paying dividends for the last 5 years. If none of that has taken a little of the sting out for you, I'm amazed that you want to maintain your investment. Of course, those that bought decades ago don't really care, but not all of us are so lucky. Yes, of course. Those of us who bought "decades ago" don't really care because we didn't have 61% of our AAPL investment disappear during 2007-2009. We were *so* lucky. /s
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Post by tuffett on Aug 4, 2017 15:52:18 GMT -8
Oh, come on. I even quoted him for you. He said two years, not six months. Or are you asking me to listen to what he means and not what he says? Oh, come on? If two people compete in a marathon against one another, can the loser take solace in having been ahead for 15 of the 26 miles? If you look at the chart I enclosed, I see Apple beating the markets at the *start* of the two year period and then again at the *end*. Therefore, they outperformed the market over the last two years. Sounds awfully Trump-esque if you ask me. Nice one. Complete miss though. You must be thinking of a different member. Agree with the rest of your post re:hindsight. I was just making the point that AAPL hasn't been that great of an investment in the last 5ish years compared to other large cap tech. And, unlike most other large cap tech stocks, Apple has ben paying dividends for the last 5 years. If none of that has taken a little of the sting out for you, I'm amazed that you want to maintain your investment. Of course, those that bought decades ago don't really care, but not all of us are so lucky. Yes, of course. Those of us who bought "decades ago" don't really care because we didn't have 61% of our AAPL investment disappear during 2007-2009. We were *so* lucky. /s At the time of the comment, a two year chart showed that AAPL did not perform the best, making the statement false. I don't understand your analogy, it makes no sense.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,432
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Post by chinacat on Aug 4, 2017 18:18:32 GMT -8
Apple Plans to Release a Cellular-Capable Watch to Break iPhone Ties also includes the information that Intel will be supplying the LTE modems. I have to believe that all chip suppliers who make these deals with Apple have to be holding their breath and wondering when Apple's silicon team will make them superfluous. I am not convinced that being untethered will significantly increase sales of the Watch, but I am not a runner, nor have I used a current version. I'd be interested in others' opinions.
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Post by tuffett on Aug 4, 2017 18:35:31 GMT -8
Apple Plans to Release a Cellular-Capable Watch to Break iPhone Ties also includes the information that Intel will be supplying the LTE modems. I have to believe that all chip suppliers who make these deals with Apple have to be holding their breath and wondering when Apple's silicon team will make them superfluous. I am not convinced that being untethered will significantly increase sales of the Watch, but I am not a runner, nor have I used a current version. I'd be interested in others' opinions. It's a feature that isn't really a must but a lot of people feel that it is, so I think it will boost sales.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,432
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Post by chinacat on Aug 4, 2017 19:11:13 GMT -8
Apple Plans to Release a Cellular-Capable Watch to Break iPhone Ties also includes the information that Intel will be supplying the LTE modems. I have to believe that all chip suppliers who make these deals with Apple have to be holding their breath and wondering when Apple's silicon team will make them superfluous. I am not convinced that being untethered will significantly increase sales of the Watch, but I am not a runner, nor have I used a current version. I'd be interested in others' opinions. It's a feature that isn't really a must but a lot of people feel that it is, so I think it will boost sales. And perhaps ASP? Will this be optional, in the manner of iPads, or will it become the new, more expensive, standard?
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,186
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Post by JDSoCal on Aug 4, 2017 19:45:57 GMT -8
This is the kind of deal that a colonial power makes to exploit its colonies. Of course China subsidizes many of its major companies 100% - they are state-owned. That's what we're competing against in America. More accurately, we're competing against ourselves when we treat business as the enemy, and then people wonder where the jobs and wealth and American dream went. We definitely need to MAGA! Apple Plans to Release a Cellular-Capable Watch to Break iPhone Ties also includes the information that Intel will be supplying the LTE modems. I have to believe that all chip suppliers who make these deals with Apple have to be holding their breath and wondering when Apple's silicon team will make them superfluous. I am not convinced that being untethered will significantly increase sales of the Watch, but I am not a runner, nor have I used a current version. I'd be interested in others' opinions. Apple designs the SOC in-house, but they don't fab anything. There's no money in pooping out silicon. ... I hope the new watch is slimmer. That's what I've been waiting for. A cellular radio would be awesome for exercise. I just hope it doesn't kill the iPhone like iPhone killed the PC. But as Jobs used to say, cannibalization is better than being eaten by the enemy.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,432
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Post by chinacat on Aug 4, 2017 20:33:13 GMT -8
Apple designs the SOC in-house, but they don't fab anything. There's no money in pooping out silicon. Thanks for the reminder JD. Do you happen to know who fabbed the W1? Did a quick search, but no luck.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,353
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Post by bud777 on Aug 4, 2017 20:35:30 GMT -8
This is the kind of deal that a colonial power makes to exploit its colonies. Of course China subsidizes many of its major companies 100% - they are state-owned. That's what we're competing against in America. More accurately, we're competing against ourselves when we treat business as the enemy, and then people wonder where the jobs and wealth and American dream went. We definitely need to MAGA! Apple Plans to Release a Cellular-Capable Watch to Break iPhone Ties also includes the information that Intel will be supplying the LTE modems. I have to believe that all chip suppliers who make these deals with Apple have to be holding their breath and wondering when Apple's silicon team will make them superfluous. I am not convinced that being untethered will significantly increase sales of the Watch, but I am not a runner, nor have I used a current version. I'd be interested in others' opinions. Apple designs the SOC in-house, but they don't fab anything. There's no money in pooping out silicon. ... I hope the new watch is slimmer. That's what I've been waiting for. A cellular radio would be awesome for exercise. I just hope it doesn't kill the iPhone like iPhone killed the PC. But as Jobs used to say, cannibalization is better than being eaten by the enemy. My point was that China was able to get us to subsidize the factory so much. I read it as the subsidies were coming from our state and federal money, not from China.
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Post by appledoc on Aug 5, 2017 3:15:12 GMT -8
Apple Plans to Release a Cellular-Capable Watch to Break iPhone Ties also includes the information that Intel will be supplying the LTE modems. I have to believe that all chip suppliers who make these deals with Apple have to be holding their breath and wondering when Apple's silicon team will make them superfluous. I am not convinced that being untethered will significantly increase sales of the Watch, but I am not a runner, nor have I used a current version. I'd be interested in others' opinions. It's a feature that isn't really a must but a lot of people feel that it is, so I think it will boost sales. I don't see how it's not a must when Apple has been clear about their focus on health and fitness for the watch. You currently have two options for exercise if you want to listen to music. 1. Use an outdated nano or shuffle with wired headphones. 2. Use your iPhone with wireless headphones, but wear some bulky arm band or a slightly less awkward waist belt to carry it in. Both options suck. I want to be able to go for a run with just my watch and headphones. This will sell big.
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Post by tuffett on Aug 5, 2017 9:31:51 GMT -8
It's a feature that isn't really a must but a lot of people feel that it is, so I think it will boost sales. I don't see how it's not a must when Apple has been clear about their focus on health and fitness for the watch. You currently have two options for exercise if you want to listen to music. 1. Use an outdated nano or shuffle with wired headphones. 2. Use your iPhone with wireless headphones, but wear some bulky arm band or a slightly less awkward waist belt to carry it in. Both options suck. I want to be able to go for a run with just my watch and headphones. This will sell big. I think you're mistaken. Apple Watch can store music and connect to AirPods. No iPhone necessary. Cellular allows making and receiving phone calls, but that's really a marginal use case these days, and getting more so.
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Post by appledoc on Aug 5, 2017 13:19:08 GMT -8
I don't see how it's not a must when Apple has been clear about their focus on health and fitness for the watch. You currently have two options for exercise if you want to listen to music. 1. Use an outdated nano or shuffle with wired headphones. 2. Use your iPhone with wireless headphones, but wear some bulky arm band or a slightly less awkward waist belt to carry it in. Both options suck. I want to be able to go for a run with just my watch and headphones. This will sell big. I think you're mistaken. Apple Watch can store music and connect to AirPods. No iPhone necessary. Cellular allows making and receiving phone calls, but that's really a marginal use case these days, and getting more so. I've been in the dark because I didn't realize you could do that with Apple Music, probably because I'm still using Spotify. I'd still like the capability to stream once Spotify finally gets an Apple Watch app out there.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,560
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Post by mark on Aug 5, 2017 17:22:46 GMT -8
I don't see how it's not a must when Apple has been clear about their focus on health and fitness for the watch. You currently have two options for exercise if you want to listen to music. 1. Use an outdated nano or shuffle with wired headphones. 2. Use your iPhone with wireless headphones, but wear some bulky arm band or a slightly less awkward waist belt to carry it in. Both options suck. I want to be able to go for a run with just my watch and headphones. This will sell big. I think you're mistaken. Apple Watch can store music and connect to AirPods. No iPhone necessary. Cellular allows making and receiving phone calls, but that's really a marginal use case these days, and getting more so. It's possible that the cellular connection in the watch will be a data-only LTE connection.
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