Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Aug 10, 2017 2:26:25 GMT -8
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Post by phoebear611 on Aug 10, 2017 3:56:57 GMT -8
Not sure what it was all about but yesterday Pete Najarian said on a few shows that there were very large call buyers of AAPL calls - I believe he said near term calls but not sure. He mentioned it several times as "unusual activity" in the options market. Thought I would pass that along. Cheers to the longs!
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Post by phoebear611 on Aug 10, 2017 4:00:22 GMT -8
Guggenheim's Cihra put this out at some point yesterday - PED is sending it out to subscribers today:
"iPhones Matter Now, Services Matter Later. We forecast iPhones continuing to drive >70% of Apple’s growth from FY17-20E, actually accelerating from 62% to 66% of revenue mix thanks to their biggest upgrade cycle in 3yrs. But we see Services contributing the next 25% of Apple’s growth, as its second-largest business (we estimate 13% going to 15% of revenue), with the potential to become Apple’s biggest contributor to growth starting FY20E. More meaningfully, we forecast >60% gross margins setting up Services to account for nearly 40% of Apple’s profit growth over the next 3yrs and increasing to 24% of its profit pool from 20% today.Reiterate Buy rating and $190 price target."
PED adds his own commentary with: "My take: It's the end of an era. The iPhone drove Apple's revenue growth for more than a decade. Barring some new hit product, according to Cihra, Services takes over in 2020."
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Aug 10, 2017 4:52:01 GMT -8
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Aug 10, 2017 4:54:28 GMT -8
Forgot to note in the starting post that Apple is trading Ex Dividend today...
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,557
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Post by mark on Aug 10, 2017 4:55:38 GMT -8
"The iPhone drove Apple's revenue growth for more than a decade. Barring some new hit product, according to Cihra, Services takes over in 2020." So, if Apple has an embedded base of many hundreds of millions of iPhones, with owners that replace them every 2 generations or so, how much services can they sell to that embedded base? Hmmm..... Keep in mind that there is no guarantee that the margins (not initial margins, continuous margins) on services will be as high as their margins on hardware are now.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,431
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Post by chinacat on Aug 10, 2017 6:52:47 GMT -8
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Post by tuffett on Aug 10, 2017 8:00:46 GMT -8
"The iPhone drove Apple's revenue growth for more than a decade. Barring some new hit product, according to Cihra, Services takes over in 2020." So, if Apple has an embedded base of many hundreds of millions of iPhones, with owners that replace them every 2 generations or so, how much services can they sell to that embedded base? Hmmm..... Keep in mind that there is no guarantee that the margins (not initial margins, continuous margins) on services will be as high as their margins on hardware are now. Long term margins on services will likely improve with scale, as data centres get established and app reviews and other activities get more and more automated. New subscribers to Apple Music, for example, cost Apple next to nothing.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,557
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Post by mark on Aug 10, 2017 8:01:41 GMT -8
"That doesn’t feel like quite enough to merit jumping a full model number to the iPhone 8" Ridiculous! iPhones have changed model numbers for a lot less (than what is being predicted). A new processor plus an OLED screen plus wireless charging, and of course all the associated new iOS features, is sufficient for a full model number change. Furthermore, I'm pretty sure that if there is an iPhone 7S, it won't have the massive form-factor changes that are required for wireless charging (but I admit that it is possible). However, it is also possible that it will be called plain "iPhone" without a number this time.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,353
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Post by bud777 on Aug 10, 2017 8:36:53 GMT -8
If services are going to be the growth driver, how does Apple protect itself against something like WeChat? In fact, why hasn't something like WeChat already found its way onto our iPhones? The effect of WeChat in neutralizing the ecosystem has been stunning in China. While we see double digit declines in iPhone sales quarter after quarter, I seldom hear anyone commenting on it. And to put it in the right context, Chine is still at the steepest part of its ramp up to 4G. Look at the numbers on the China Mobile website. If we were just holding our own in market share we would be seeing double digit growth. Last quarter, I think we dropped to fifth place with under 9% of the market.
If anyone has insight into why no one is worried about this, please share it
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,431
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Post by chinacat on Aug 10, 2017 8:44:09 GMT -8
If services are going to be the growth driver, how does Apple protect itself against something like WeChat? In fact, why hasn't something like WeChat already found its way onto our iPhones? The effect of WeChat in neutralizing the ecosystem has been stunning in China. While we see double digit declines in iPhone sales quarter after quarter, I seldom hear anyone commenting on it. And to put it in the right context, Chine is still at the steepest part of its ramp up to 4G. Look at the numbers on the China Mobile website. If we were just holding our own in market share we would be seeing double digit growth. Last quarter, I think we dropped to fifth place with under 9% of the market. If anyone has insight into why no one is worried about this, please share it There were several articles, and follow-up comments, about the WeChat issue posted a couple of weeks (?) ago. If there is a convenient way to search the archives, I am sure that you can find them. ... Found it. Check out July 14....oops, you started that thread. So I take it that by "no one" you meant pundits?
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Post by tuffett on Aug 10, 2017 8:45:44 GMT -8
If services are going to be the growth driver, how does Apple protect itself against something like WeChat? In fact, why hasn't something like WeChat already found its way onto our iPhones? The effect of WeChat in neutralizing the ecosystem has been stunning in China. While we see double digit declines in iPhone sales quarter after quarter, I seldom hear anyone commenting on it. And to put it in the right context, Chine is still at the steepest part of its ramp up to 4G. Look at the numbers on the China Mobile website. If we were just holding our own in market share we would be seeing double digit growth. Last quarter, I think we dropped to fifth place with under 9% of the market. If anyone has insight into why no one is worried about this, please share it Wechat is definitely a concern, but there are other factors in play.I Having essentially the same design for three years straight is just as much of a contributing factor to the China slowdown. The culture in China is one where people like to display their wealth and show off their latest and greatest purchases. This is of course the case everywhere, but it is far more pronounced over there. There is also the issue of nationalism. Chinese people are encouraged to support local companies, and Apple is seen by many as an evil western influence taking away business from local companies such as Huawei. Having a Wechat equivalent will do nothing to solve this problem. Mac and iPad are growing but they're starting from a much smaller base. I think we'll see a bit of a revival with these next iPhones, but long term there will continue to be ups and downs.
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Post by aapltini on Aug 10, 2017 9:20:07 GMT -8
Just to be clear, if we buy shares today we will not be entitled to the dividend, correct? Would be more tempted to BTFD if there was the added bonus of a dividend payment.
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Aug 10, 2017 11:44:11 GMT -8
If services are going to be the growth driver, how does Apple protect itself against something like WeChat? In fact, why hasn't something like WeChat already found its way onto our iPhones? The effect of WeChat in neutralizing the ecosystem has been stunning in China. While we see double digit declines in iPhone sales quarter after quarter, I seldom hear anyone commenting on it. And to put it in the right context, Chine is still at the steepest part of its ramp up to 4G. Look at the numbers on the China Mobile website. If we were just holding our own in market share we would be seeing double digit growth. Last quarter, I think we dropped to fifth place with under 9% of the market. If anyone has insight into why no one is worried about this, please share it Wechat is definitely a concern, but there are other factors in play.I Having essentially the same design for three years straight is just as much of a contributing factor to the China slowdown. The culture in China is one where people like to display their wealth and show off their latest and greatest purchases. This is of course the case everywhere, but it is far more pronounced over there. There is also the issue of nationalism. Chinese people are encouraged to support local companies, and Apple is seen by many as an evil western influence taking away business from local companies such as Huawei. Having a Wechat equivalent will do nothing to solve this problem. Mac and iPad are growing but they're starting from a much smaller base. I think we'll see a bit of a revival with these next iPhones, but long term there will continue to be ups and downs. Gotta agree with the stagnant case design theory for the iPhone slowdown in China. We'll soon see if the anniversary model spunks up sales there.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Aug 10, 2017 12:11:10 GMT -8
Ugly day. Anyone buying the dip?
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,186
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Post by JDSoCal on Aug 10, 2017 12:31:05 GMT -8
You may now return to maudlin and subdued.
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crispin
Member
KBJ for the win. AAPL long and strong since 2000
Posts: 311
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Post by crispin on Aug 10, 2017 12:37:43 GMT -8
Ugly day. Anyone buying the dip? I'll buy the dip if you bring the chips, I'm not buying but I'm not selling either. Just holding and tying to enjoy a few summer weeks on the coast of Maine. The geopolitical nonsense doesn't help in that regard.
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Post by dreamRaj on Aug 10, 2017 12:43:06 GMT -8
Ugly day. Anyone buying the dip? Yep. 40 calls 157.5 for tomorrow @ 0.25 and 20 calls 160 Sep 22 @ 2.9 I'm confident on making a few bucks on the Sep 22 calls. The ones for tomorrow are a quick gamble.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,654
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Post by 4aapl on Aug 10, 2017 14:10:22 GMT -8
It's days like today that remind me that things never go in a straight line. By AAPL retesting some of this space flown by in this last run, it makes future runs all the more solid.
This was the same thing a few weeks ago with the retest of 142, a couple weeks before earnings. Like that dip, if Cramer's 5-8% backtrace (it seemed not necessarily what he was expecting, but where he would suggest buying for someone without a position already) actually happens, I wouldn't mind buying a little there too. But personally, based on recent dips in AAPL, unless there was some negative rumors or worrisome world politics to adjoin it, I'd expect a bounce off of mid-151 to be the lowest it gets, either with a bounce within hours tomorrow, or a rethinking over the weekend and then a climb on Monday.
At some point it's just guessing, hopeful or otherwise. At the same time, it's guided by past performance, and the positiveness Apple has going for it in this current cycle, so it's not completely just hopeful guessing.
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Post by zzmac on Aug 10, 2017 21:12:57 GMT -8
I've been long and on this forum now for a few years. Not as long as luckychoices but I'm happy with my modest gains. I've learned to be Very patient.
Someone has to ask (ok, I will), what are your educated opinions on what will happen to the IPhone and aapl if the us goes to war with NK? What if China is drawn into the conflict?
I encourage a lot of opinions!
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Post by gtrplyr on Aug 11, 2017 1:49:59 GMT -8
I've been long and on this forum now for a few years. Not as long as luckychoices but I'm happy with my modest gains. I've learned to be Very patient. Someone has to ask (ok, I will), what are your educated opinions on what will happen to the IPhone and aapl if the us goes to war with NK? What if China is drawn into the conflict? I encourage a lot of opinions! So if we go to war with NK and China ... you are worried about how it will affect iPhone sales? I don't think I'll much care as we will have much greater problems to worry about ... such as the existence of the human race .... Cheers to the longs and let's pray for ALL world leaders to start showing some restraint with how they treat this situation . Throwing gas on the fire at this point is counterproductive ... I'll leave it at that.
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Post by rickag on Aug 11, 2017 3:37:45 GMT -8
I've been long and on this forum now for a few years. Not as long as luckychoices but I'm happy with my modest gains. I've learned to be Very patient. Someone has to ask (ok, I will), what are your educated opinions on what will happen to the IPhone and aapl if the us goes to war with NK? What if China is drawn into the conflict? I encourage a lot of opinions! AAPL will get hammered and China will basically shut down all Apple production.
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Post by dreamRaj on Aug 11, 2017 6:19:43 GMT -8
Ugly day. Anyone buying the dip? Yep. 40 calls 157.5 for tomorrow @ 0.25 and 20 calls 160 Sep 22 @ 2.9 I'm confident on making a few bucks on the Sep 22 calls. The ones for tomorrow are a quick gamble. Sold the 40 calls that expire today @ $1.30. Made $4000.
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