Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Sept 13, 2017 2:45:16 GMT -8
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 13, 2017 3:16:24 GMT -8
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 13, 2017 3:18:39 GMT -8
From PED this morning:
Amit Daryanani, RBC: iPhoneapalooza. This year's event marked one of the most highly anticipated product announcements in recent years, and from a product perspective, the company did not disappoint. We think the new form factor and net new features/capabilities (wireless charging, AR enablement, 3-D sensing) added to the flagship device will drive accelerated device upgrades within AAPL's install base combined with increased switching activity. Notably, the iPhone X will not begin shipping until November 3; the later than anticipated launch date could partially shift new device unit/ASP lift from Dec-qtr to Mar-qtr. Fundamentally, we think the excitement surrounding the new form factor/features will drive increased unit demand in addition to mix shift toward the higher-end device ($999), which should enable one of the strongest iPhone cycles in recent years.Outperform. $180.
Robert Cihra, Guggenheim: Don't Sell the News. With shares up 39% YTD vs. the S&P500’s 11%, many investors now feel they should “sell the news” but we disagree and rather raise our price target to $200 from $190, as rising iPhone ASPs further accelerate revenue growth. We continue to see Apple now set up for its biggest iPhone cycle in 3 years, providing more runway for appreciation driven by our expectation for: 1) pent-up demand + 2) a MULTI-year OLED rollout + 3) double- digit increases in iPhone’s blended ASP. Buy. Raise price target to $200 from $190.
Abhey Lamba, Mizuho: Maintain Neutral on Limited Upside. None of the features in the version 8 product will likely accelerate demand. Rather we see a risk of demand push-out (wherever physically possible) to next year when Apple will likely release OLED versions more broadly. We expect the company to include new display technology and offer an updated design next year when OLED screens will be more broadly available. As such, mainstream iPhone users might consider pushing out their purchases to next year when they can get greater innovation at a lower price. The price points of iPhone X might create reasonable response in markets that offer subsidies but it is likely to experience limited adoption in markets where consumers have to pay full price upfront. Additionally, supply shortages initially will likely offer limited potential for upside. Neutral. $150.
Michael Olson, Piper Jaffray: New Device Upgrades Consistent w/ Expectations. This being the tenth anniversary of the original iPhone, expectations were for the company to deliver a device with a relatively more robust set of upgraded features; we believe Apple generally met these lofty expectations. Most notably, we would point to the change in form factor (edge-to-edge, glass OLED screen) and 3D sensing (enabling facial recognition) as the key upgrades. Overweight. $190.
Gene Munster, Loup Ventures: iPhone X Hints at a Post-Smartphone World. iPhone X will ship on November 3, roughly six weeks after we had previously expected. We estimate that some users (about 20% of all new iPhone buyers) will opt for the iPhone X over iPhone 8 and previous models. The ship date likely won’t have a material impact on the number of units sold, but will push some unit sales into the March quarter. Ultimately, roughly 10% of our previous iPhone unit sales in the December quarter will be iPhone X sales that are shifted into the March quarter.
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Post by gtrplyr on Sept 13, 2017 6:00:44 GMT -8
Is anyone really surprised by this down day ? I'm not going to call it a "selloff" ... yet.
Out of all the products revealed yesterday I think the biggest will be the new Apple Watch. People will feel liberated from their phones for the first time in years yet .... they are still in contact. I know there have been numerous times I wish I didn't have to have a phone with me ... now I can leave it in the car or at home.
This is the first real "wearable" that is going to shape the future of these products. I'm very excited about it.
This market is so short sighted it's unbelievable ... who cares if iPhone X comes out a month or two later ? People that are going to pay that premium for cutting edge stuff are Not going to settle for another phone .... MAYBE an iPhone but certainly not another brand.
Cheers to the longs
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Post by rob_london on Sept 13, 2017 6:44:19 GMT -8
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,431
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Post by chinacat on Sept 13, 2017 7:13:32 GMT -8
The past month seems to me to be the typical "buy the rumor, sell the news" reaction of the Market. The delay in the iPhone X release could actually help the fourth quarter. The wait combined with the approach of the holidays could make some folks splurge for that extra-special holiday gift, whether for themselves or others. I do not think that many folks who have their eye on it will decide to just buy the 8/8Plus instead.
BWDIK
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Post by dreamRaj on Sept 13, 2017 7:53:17 GMT -8
Is anyone really surprised by this down day ? I'm not going to call it a "selloff" ... yet. ... If it falls to 155 and below then it's a sell-off. Right now it's just confused/uncertain/weak hands hitting Sell. BTD at 155.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Sept 13, 2017 7:57:27 GMT -8
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Post by dreamRaj on Sept 13, 2017 8:09:58 GMT -8
...The delay in the iPhone X release could actually help the fourth quarter... Might not. Because I won't put it past Apple that they'll have limited quantities again for the only reason that it will take more time to make that beauty. Not saying that they'll have VERY limited quantities but probably NOT ENOUGH to fully suffice ALL the pent-up demand for the X around the world. For this reason alone, I'm afraid the holiday quarter numbers might not be as high as one would think it will/should be. OTOH, March quarter will be HUGE and so will the whole of 2018.
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Post by gtrplyr on Sept 13, 2017 8:16:37 GMT -8
...The delay in the iPhone X release could actually help the fourth quarter... Might not. Because I won't put it past Apple that they'll have limited quantities again for the only reason that it will take more time to make that beauty. Not saying that they'll have VERY limited quantities but probably NOT ENOUGH to fully suffice ALL the pent-up demand for the X around the world. For this reason alone, I'm afraid the holiday quarter numbers might not be as high as one would think it will/should be. OTOH, March quarter will be HUGE and so will the whole of 2018. Just throwing this out there .... most if not all of the talk I've heard today is about the $1k iPhone, I really think the watch will surprise a LOT of people. This is a PHONE in a watch .... stand alone ..... it's a BIG deal. IMHO . Edit: IF I happen to leave the house without my watch I turn around right away , it doesn't really happen because as soon as I get in the car I put something on to listen to and it's always streaming from my iPhone ... now it can stream from the watch (pretty sure ... ) but I don't have to fear not having the phone ... I can still get directions, find phone numbers, stay in touch and answer texts and emails right from my wrist ... frankly other than watching video I'd rather have the watch !
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Post by dreamRaj on Sept 13, 2017 8:40:09 GMT -8
Might not. Because I won't put it past Apple that they'll have limited quantities again for the only reason that it will take more time to make that beauty. Not saying that they'll have VERY limited quantities but probably NOT ENOUGH to fully suffice ALL the pent-up demand for the X around the world. For this reason alone, I'm afraid the holiday quarter numbers might not be as high as one would think it will/should be. OTOH, March quarter will be HUGE and so will the whole of 2018. Just throwing this out there .... most if not all of the talk I've heard today is about the $1k iPhone, I really think the watch will surprise a LOT of people. This is a PHONE in a watch .... stand alone ..... it's a BIG deal. IMHO . Edit: IF I happen to leave the house without my watch I turn around right away , it doesn't really happen because as soon as I get in the car I put something on to listen to and it's always streaming from my iPhone ... now it can stream from the watch (pretty sure ... ) but I don't have to fear not having the phone ... I can still get directions, find phone numbers, stay in touch and answer texts and emails right from my wrist ... frankly other than watching video I'd rather have the watch ! +1 The Watch is indeed getting lost in all the X news. I will be getting a Series 3 too. I bought the original at launch but let it go because I found it limiting. But the Series 3 seems to be a compelling buy!
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Post by incorrigible on Sept 13, 2017 9:03:04 GMT -8
Agree on the watch comments. I think it was the highlight of the show. Now you can leave your phone at home and use the watch alone to stay in touch. I might even break down and spend some $ and get one.
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Post by rob_london on Sept 13, 2017 9:05:34 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,186
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 13, 2017 10:07:54 GMT -8
BTFD! 📉
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Post by rob_london on Sept 13, 2017 10:18:14 GMT -8
Apple's supplier network combined sales to Apple in 2016 (according to Goldman Sachs):
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Sept 13, 2017 11:26:52 GMT -8
Great analysis. I agree that we might have a couple of rough quarters, but sales of the X will surprise everyone, and will increase ASP bigly. The question is, how will Wall Street react to that, especially before April when that story is clear.
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 13, 2017 11:51:01 GMT -8
I think the watch got a lot of talk today on the business channels. Personally I think this is all about trading and algos. It's like clockwork - BTFD IMHO
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Post by BillH on Sept 13, 2017 22:20:08 GMT -8
New kick-ass phones. iWatch 3. AirPods. iPads. HomePods. Mighty iMacs...,I'm good. It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas.....
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