Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Sept 14, 2017 2:17:32 GMT -8
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 14, 2017 5:06:20 GMT -8
So here is where we will see FUD begin - if the orders for 8 and 8s are soft the bulls will say that everyone is waiting to order the X and therefore more revenue. The bears will argue the that the 8 and 8s are just somewhat "evolutionary " so people have second thought of upgrading now for higher cost. Frustrating - you can't win sometimes.
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Post by sponge on Sept 14, 2017 6:24:22 GMT -8
Well I am getting the 8 and a new Apple Watch for Mrs. Sponge. Her fourth I might add and the 7th in our house.
Don't like the X for the following reasons. I have to relearn finger movements, too big, too expensive, and sliglty slower then Finger ID to open.
I would love that have that screen however, the camera, and the 2 hour extra battery life. I think I will get all those in a year or two.
Apple will have a strong Christmas and strong 2018. Even if they sell less Xs because of price, they will sell enough of everything to see nice solid growth.
The stock is acting like it normally does. Now it looks like it wants to flirt with the 50 MA. Good time to go all in again if that happens.
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Sept 14, 2017 6:40:44 GMT -8
Yeah, "onanism" pretty much clinched it, as well as being self-descriptive.
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Post by CdnPhoto on Sept 14, 2017 7:30:28 GMT -8
Well I am getting the 8 and a new Apple Watch for Mrs. Sponge. Her fourth I might add and the 7th in our house. Her 4th watch!?! (hope you were referring to her iPhone)
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Post by sponge on Sept 14, 2017 7:32:34 GMT -8
Well I am getting the 8 and a new Apple Watch for Mrs. Sponge. Her fourth I might add and the 7th in our house. Her 4th watch!?! (hope you were referring to her iPhone) She replaced the other ones with different colors. We sold them.
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Post by dreamRaj on Sept 14, 2017 8:21:07 GMT -8
So here is where we will see FUD begin - if the orders for 8 and 8s are soft the bulls will say that everyone is waiting to order the X and therefore more revenue. The bears will argue the that the 8 and 8s are just somewhat "evolutionary " so people have second thought of upgrading now for higher cost. Frustrating - you can't win sometimes. Exactly! Best to sit on the sideline till next week or so before trading or investing.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 14, 2017 9:20:18 GMT -8
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 14, 2017 10:22:24 GMT -8
"Cramer's advice to prevent traders from being shaken out was simple: don't make that kind of trade. Rumors of the new iPhone started swirling days before the release, and it came as no surprise to Cramer that analysts yawned at the launch, as they often do with Apple news. "Why does all of this matter? Go back to the original narrative at the top. Say you bought Apple for a specific event, the iPhone launch. That event occurs. Predictably, there are a ton of analysts who say, 'Ehh.' That's what they do. So now you're going to be shaken out because you hear 'Ehh' and you know you made a mistake and now you've got to cut and run tomorrow," Cramer said. "That's why I say the best thing to do would've been to do nothing."" ya know, a while ago I used to think Cramer was all show. I remember watching it for kicks while on a treadmill at a hotel 8 years ago. There was enough action it actually kept you entertained. But then he comes out with something like this, and the rest of the article, which are just spot on...at least to my thinking. AAPL is down just over 3% from it's highest ever close until now, and it's easy to let that dig into you a little bit, especially if you're actually ready to divest a little. But this is the trade vs invest mentality, just as stock vs options. With options, a small move could make a big difference, especially with time and volatility premiums also disappearing. But with stock and "investing instead of trading", especially while still happy to hold for a while, there really shouldn't be much worry of a small move. It's easy to get worked up over it, especially as many in the press start nit picking or fear mongering. Instead, it's time to step back a bit and enjoy doing something else. Soon enough the preorders will start, and with it the ups and downs of "it's back ordered by x weeks" and "it's back ordered by x weeks....Apple must be having production problems"
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,353
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Post by bud777 on Sept 14, 2017 12:32:47 GMT -8
That explains the small bumps, but what explains the longer term cycles like the drop from 700 to 387 or the drop from 134 to 87 more recently? I feel like the rise from 115 to 165 has set us up for another harvesting of the get-rich-quick investors. other than the Watch, I did not see anything that has not been done poorly by others. Don't get me wrong, I understand how powerful Apple's evolutionary approach is, but the kind of boosts that we saw with the iPad and the iPhone 6 form factor are not here. I think that we are sustained by the hope of repatriation of profits and a vague "supercycle" belief. The decline from 2nd place to 5th place in China, which was once our second largest market has been ignored.
As I understand Apple today, I think it is fine for people who can wait out the long term cycles'
The other aspect I worry about is the market in general. Stocks were once an investment that could be analyzed, risks could be assessed, and there was some semblance of rationality. Now the majority of the buy/sell decisions are made by bots who are basing their decisions on scraping info from web articles, twitter posts and facebook. But those sources are manipulated by automated bot farms that can generate 80,000 articles an hour. that can manipulate the emotions of FB and Twitter users though targeted campaigns, and to a very minor extent by the mainstream media. The "pump-and-dump" of the last century has been replaced by an artificial environment that can determine you personality from your "likes", generate articles that push your buttons, and harvest the results of your reactions in seconds.
maybe it is time to start stuffing the mattress again.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Sept 14, 2017 12:36:27 GMT -8
Looks like we'll reach down to test the 50 Day (156.50) which has been a very good place to add to positions.
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mark
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Posts: 1,560
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Post by mark on Sept 14, 2017 12:42:16 GMT -8
Question about the new watch. How exactly will it work with regards to the carriers? Will some carriers allow you to program the eSIM with the same number as your iPhone? Or will it have a different number? And if it has the same number (most likely I have to assume), will it share the same data plan or will it require an addition device on your existing plan? And how much will that cost every month?
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Sept 14, 2017 12:43:51 GMT -8
Question about the new watch. How exactly will it work with regards to the carriers? Will some carriers allow you to program the eSIM with the same number as your iPhone? Or will it have a different number? And if it has the same number (most likely I have to assume), will it share the same data plan or will it require an addition device on your existing plan? And how much will that cost every month? Uses same number when you set it up. Cellular data $10 extra per month (in US).
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Sept 14, 2017 19:02:58 GMT -8
Ad Groups send an Open Letter to Apple Objecting to the new "Intelligent tracking prevention" Setting in Safari reports the "concerns" voiced by the Data and Marketing Association and the Network Advertising Initiative. Pretty hilarious, IMHO. If consumers want to continue to support "organizations devoted to innovation and growth in the consumer economy" then they can choose not to enable any of the six options listed under PRIVACY & SECURITY settings for iOS 11, as shown in the article. As for myself, I will certainly try them out to see if it "hurts user experience by making advertising more 'generic and less timely and useful.'" Choice is always good.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 14, 2017 21:33:14 GMT -8
That explains the small bumps, but what explains the longer term cycles like the drop from 700 to 387 or the drop from 134 to 87 more recently? I feel like the rise from 115 to 165 has set us up for another harvesting of the get-rich-quick investors. other than the Watch, I did not see anything that has not been done poorly by others. Don't get me wrong, I understand how powerful Apple's evolutionary approach is, but the kind of boosts that we saw with the iPad and the iPhone 6 form factor are not here. I think that we are sustained by the hope of repatriation of profits and a vague "supercycle" belief. The decline from 2nd place to 5th place in China, which was once our second largest market has been ignored. As I understand Apple today, I think it is fine for people who can wait out the long term cycles' Looking at my records, that aren't compete with all of the comparisons, it looks like in both recent dips the earnings and revenue growth went negative on a YOY basis. The high at ~700 on 9-2012 was with '12 Q3, with earnings/EPS of 8.8B/9.32, a YOY earnings increase of 20%, and beating guidance by 7.3%. Those percentages are low compared to previous quarters, but they are still positive. The low of 380-390 was 3-2013 & 6-2013. 2013 Q3 earnings/EPS was 6.9B/7.47, so YOY earnings went down 20%. The previous quarter was down 18%, and previous to that was down 1%. So, the stock price didn't like seeing earnings go down, especially after around 100% YOY gains in 2011 Q3 (125%), 2012 Q1 (115%) and 2012 Q2 (94%) Looks like the same thing happened in 2016, with Q1 earnings nearly flat, then Q2, Q3 and Q4 all down. And so, the stock went down. Sadly, I haven't paid that much attention to the specific growth rates while they have happened for most of the nearly 20 years I have held AAPL. But seeing those numbers, I'd be looking at them. While Apple is buying back shares, it looks like EPS is up about 10% the last 2 quarters, and maybe 5% the quarter before that. The other aspect I worry about is the market in general. Stocks were once an investment that could be analyzed, risks could be assessed, and there was some semblance of rationality. Now the majority of the buy/sell decisions are made by bots who are basing their decisions on scraping info from web articles, twitter posts and facebook. But those sources are manipulated by automated bot farms that can generate 80,000 articles an hour. that can manipulate the emotions of FB and Twitter users though targeted campaigns, and to a very minor extent by the mainstream media. The "pump-and-dump" of the last century has been replaced by an artificial environment that can determine you personality from your "likes", generate articles that push your buttons, and harvest the results of your reactions in seconds. Interesting I'd guess like all things, whether it's direct manipulation (cornering the market i.e. Gould or Jesse Livermore, insider trading, etc) or indirect manipulation (a certain chart reading or trading method getting popular), the question is how much does it matter, and what can you do to mitigate it. One way is to hold for longer terms, or at least don't be forced to sell at a bad time, if the theory is that manipulation happens on a shorter timeframe. Another is to hold a variety of things, spreading the risk, if the theory is that not all things will be manipulated at once. I think we've all seen plenty of manipulation of AAPL in the past, often of supplier rumors as inopportune times. But we also saw the flash crash a few years ago, with with my recollection affected everything, though to differing degrees (since some hit the breakers, and others didn't). My plan is to hold longer term, and slowly get more and more diversified, likely with a boring but safe and wide index fund. It's not for everyone, but I'm at a time and place in my life that it will work for me. That said, it will be a slow move that way over time, mainly to help manage taxes unless there is a big change in the tax code or our planned location, or a change in where it looks AAPL is going longer term. And right now, that longer term is looking to take Apple to 1T. Maybe even medium term
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