Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Nov 1, 2017 2:30:31 GMT -8
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Post by appledoc on Nov 1, 2017 3:04:19 GMT -8
I'm selling this morning ahead of earnings. Feels like a boom or bust here. Will be in for sure before next earnings.
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Post by CdnPhoto on Nov 1, 2017 3:54:37 GMT -8
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Nov 1, 2017 4:09:25 GMT -8
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Post by appledoc on Nov 1, 2017 4:44:22 GMT -8
Holding isn’t wrong. I’m just too risk adverse these days.
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Post by edtech on Nov 1, 2017 5:57:18 GMT -8
The last time we had a major hardware platform change (iPhone 6) in the 2014 Fall-2015 Winter Time frame, the basic action for AAPL went from 97.67 on the day before earnings (Oct. 17th, 2014 with earnings day on Oct. 20th) up a steady rise until 118.93 on Black Friday (Nov. 28th, the Friday after Thanksgiving) which was about +20%. It then proceed to fall off a small cliff right after black friday and dropped steadily until Jan 16th to a local low of 105.99 (drop of nearly 10%). Q1 earnings date was Jan 27th, 2015 and AAPL rose steadily from the low of Jan 16th up to 129.50 on Feb. 20th after which is began a long decline.
Of course historical action does not predict what is going to happen in our immediate future, but this does give us some lens with which to view the next few weeks. I would expect some companies to sell some AAPL towards the end the the year to 1) lock in gains, and 2) to rebalance their portfolios since AAPL is bound to have grown to an outsized proportion of their holdings after a strong rise thus far this year. (Right after black friday might be one time frame for this to happen, unless the upcoming earnings report’s guidance for the winter holiday quarter comes in low, in which case I would expect the selling off to happen nearly immediately after the earnings report.)
Perhaps it is time to create some "dry powder" (i.e. sell some holdings now) in order to be ready for some dips ahead?
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Post by hledgard on Nov 1, 2017 6:00:59 GMT -8
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,656
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 1, 2017 7:23:49 GMT -8
David Pogue has a good review of the iPhone X. For some reason Yahoo's site only let me watch it in "mini" version on the AAPL summary page, and not when I opened it. But he's right, that for a lot of people putting down 1k on this phone makes a lot more sense than other ways they spend the money, whether that's the bottle of wine he mentioned, or just "going out". And that $200 premium from a 8 Plus is just getting tiny. My wife might get a surprise when we finally get new phones...I'll probably "just" get an 8. Saying it like that, it feels a little like "just" getting water at a restaurant, where that is really all I want, but I feel I have to play it down in wording. Hmmm. finance.yahoo.com/news/iphone-x-review-gorgeous-pricey-worth-140711029.htmlAnd iOS 11.1 is out. I first saw all the security related issues it fixes, but there's other things too. I don't see a specific call out to the calculator. I'm downloading it now, and just backed up my 5S. finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-releases-ios-11-1-172947838.htmlI'm currently reading "the leisure class", after seeing it referenced a month ago about the X's price. It brings a lot of things to light, basically of ways that some people that have a lot of money show off that they have a lot of money. It's not really about the modern luxuries that the masses sometimes treat themselves with, whether that's a fancy coffee or an iPhone X instead of an 8, but it does get you thinking about the many different reasons people may buy a X. But more directly, it gets one thinking about the larger price differences, say on the top end current or former watches. It seems to me that making a special ceramic or even gold or platinum plated iPhone, and selling it for some astronomical figure, would help meet the likely demand in this area. At the same time, it would give Apple extra money, whether that's used for R&D costs, advertising, or it comes back to the shareholders.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,432
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Post by chinacat on Nov 1, 2017 8:29:35 GMT -8
I almost stopped reading at "Apple, however, is now seemingly stuck on the same wave, with no clear new product vision coming forward to drive the imagination of the “feed me now” generation beyond the iPhone." First, mobile phones will continue to be the "must have" technology item for billions of people world-wide for the foreseeable future. Second, the iPhone X is clearly a leap ahead which all its competitors will be scrambling to keep up with for years to come, and no one knows what is going on in the labs for the future. So I currently have no worries "whether they can successfully re-vitalize an aging iPhone product line as the basis for the stock valuation," only whether the stock will ever be fairly valued. Regarding the share buybacks and other "financial engineering," I am sure the Apple management team would be willing to curtail those activities if AAPL were close to being fairly valued compared to other tech titans. In the mean time, I doubt that few in this newsgroup are crying about dividend increases and share buybacks. I also believe that Tim and Luca are ready to respond if "the interest rate mess created by the Federal Reserve, and followed by the ECB and the BOJ starts to unravel and the market begins to demand a real interest rate as a return for risky investments." They are certainly not the only company taking advantage of favorable tax consequences by keeping money parked overseas.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,656
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 1, 2017 9:30:35 GMT -8
The last time we had a major hardware platform change (iPhone 6) in the 2014 Fall-2015 Winter Time frame, the basic action for AAPL went from 97.67 on the day before earnings (Oct. 17th, 2014 with earnings day on Oct. 20th) up a steady rise until 118.93 on Black Friday (Nov. 28th, the Friday after Thanksgiving) which was about +20%. It then proceed to fall off a small cliff right after black friday and dropped steadily until Jan 16th to a local low of 105.99 (drop of nearly 10%). Q1 earnings date was Jan 27th, 2015 and AAPL rose steadily from the low of Jan 16th up to 129.50 on Feb. 20th after which is began a long decline. Of course historical action does not predict what is going to happen in our immediate future, but this does give us some lens with which to view the next few weeks. I would expect some companies to sell some AAPL towards the end the the year to 1) lock in gains, and 2) to rebalance their portfolios since AAPL is bound to have grown to an outsized proportion of their holdings after a strong rise thus far this year. (Right after black friday might be one time frame for this to happen, unless the upcoming earnings report’s guidance for the winter holiday quarter comes in low, in which case I would expect the selling off to happen nearly immediately after the earnings report.) Perhaps it is time to create some "dry powder" (i.e. sell some holdings now) in order to be ready for some dips ahead? It's great to have some past data....even if I think it's too early to sell. Sometimes it ends up being a little different than you remember, such as when looking through the data around the past 5 iPhone releases, as I did 2 months ago. And while many articles out there talked of the swoon around iPhone announcements, there must have been looking at too tight of a time band, and sure enough just like past years, AAPL is up from where it was at the end of August. Sure, there were some tradable swings between then and now, but for those looking at the longer timeframes and unsure of how well they would play a shorter term trade, the "sitting tight" method is working just fine. I believe in most cases the iPhone release ride averaged going to the end of November, but I think we can all agree that this year's release is different. With the main driver, the iPhone X, having many positives (demand and revenue/earnings per device), and being pushed back a month from recent year release times, it's hard to say exactly how things will play out. But, unless Apple says that they are having a terrible time producing iPhones (not just enough of them), and they don't see a way to fix that, right now it's seeming like it will be hard for the stock to not do great. While I am looking to sell off 10% of our shares in our taxable account this year, and another 10% next year, that's more for risk management/financial engineering/tax engineering purposes. For this year's potential sale, I'll be waiting, maybe doing half before Thanksgiving, and half in the last week of the year. For next year's, I'll probably write covered calls against them at strikes 15-20% above the price before and after earnings, keeping in mind that unless things change, those larger open interest volumes of calls in the 170-190 range in January could pull the stock down. It's happened before, squishing AAPL when it seemed that all was golden. Of course it all depends on risk tolerance and goals....but to me it's a little early to be creating "dry powder"....just as others feel it will be too early to create "dry powder" with my plan above.
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Post by joel90069 on Nov 1, 2017 9:32:10 GMT -8
Is today about profit taking or did something happen with AAPL I'm not aware of?
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Post by CdnPhoto on Nov 1, 2017 10:13:12 GMT -8
Is today about profit taking or did something happen with AAPL I'm not aware of? I think it's profit taking and risk mitigation (earnings tomorrow).
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Post by dreamRaj on Nov 1, 2017 11:56:32 GMT -8
Is today about profit taking or did something happen with AAPL I'm not aware of? I think it's profit taking and risk mitigation (earnings tomorrow). Exactly! I've been scaling out of some of my calls too in order to get my money back and then ride the ER wave (hopefully up) for free.
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Post by dreamRaj on Nov 1, 2017 14:29:21 GMT -8
166.89. We're around where we were day before yesterday. Not bad.
Tomorrow's intraday action should be interesting in that we'll get to see who wins - the pessimists or investors who are confident of the future no matter what the Q4 numbers might be.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,186
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 1, 2017 15:04:48 GMT -8
You guys talking about selling, is that options or long shares? Considering the ridiculous double standard that Apple is held to, hard to envision an earnings release that could not cause a drop, considering the recent run-up. Hope I'm wrong, but everything has to be awesome, top & bottom lines, EPS, margins, guidance, everything. And even then, the female Bower Birds will likely still be unimpressed and snootily turn away. I'm liking this WSJ story though: How the iPhone X Could Steal ChristmasAnd the government-sanctioned Ponzi scheme that is Tesla continues...
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Post by appledoc on Nov 1, 2017 16:06:00 GMT -8
You guys talking about selling, is that options or long shares. Long shares. I see a lot of potential downside post-earnings. Not a lot of upside. Might as well take my profit. Of course, I do think January earnings will anihilate the record. So I’d like to get back in before then.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,353
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Post by bud777 on Nov 1, 2017 18:37:28 GMT -8
You guys talking about selling, is that options or long shares? Options, specifically 2020 LEAPS
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Post by rezonate on Nov 1, 2017 18:37:50 GMT -8
HomePod? Soon?
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Post by hledgard on Nov 1, 2017 19:31:59 GMT -8
Thanks ChinaCat. That was a really thoughtful response to my concern ! !
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Mav
Member
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Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Nov 1, 2017 19:48:50 GMT -8
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