Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Nov 6, 2017 3:32:35 GMT -8
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,432
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Post by chinacat on Nov 6, 2017 5:47:45 GMT -8
Wow! The iPhone X has been available for less than three full days, and it's already passe ?!?!? "But its success will not be driven by anything new that the new phone packs inside. Instead, its success will be based on the phone’s screen size." Did Mr. Katsenelson miss all of the technology packed into the notch? "Apple is going to have a harder time convincing iFanatics to shell out $1,000-$1,200 every year (or even every two years)." I guess people practically breaking down the door of Apple stores to buy the iPhone X was just a brief aberration, and there will be no technological advances in future models. "As all the excitement subsides, Apple stock will have to answer an extremely important question: What is next? After all, the value of any business is a lot more than the earnings generated next year, but far beyond that." Yes, the iPhone X and Apple in general are nothing but a flash in the pan. Sheeeeesh!!!!
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Post by carbonate24 on Nov 6, 2017 6:07:41 GMT -8
My favorite part of the PED article...."Three out of four customers are going with the $1,149 version". Hello margin upside.
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Post by CdnPhoto on Nov 6, 2017 6:57:29 GMT -8
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Post by dreamRaj on Nov 6, 2017 7:04:09 GMT -8
Disappointed with the post ER action. Don't people understand that this earnings beat was without the X which means that the iPhone 8 sales were quite good? Can't they figure out that the 15% higher guidance for this quarter is with the X being available for less than two months of the three? Don't they realize that the X -- with much higher ASPs -- will be ruling the world for most of 2018? And are they totally ignoring that Apple will have over 300 billion cash by next year?
What are we missing?
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Post by rob_london on Nov 6, 2017 7:18:56 GMT -8
More on that Argus upgrade:
"Our more forward-looking two- and three-stage discounted free cash flow model renders a value north of $330 per share, in a rising trend. Our blended fundamental valuation model points to a price above $280, also in a rising trend. Appreciation to our 12-month target price of $210 (raised from $185), along with the dividend yield of about 1.5%, implies a risk-adjusted total return in the mid-teens range, exceeding our 12-month forecast for the broad market".
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,432
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Post by chinacat on Nov 6, 2017 7:23:45 GMT -8
Disappointed with the post ER action. Don't people understand that this earnings beat was without the X which means that the iPhone 8 sales were quite good? Can't they figure out that the 15% higher guidance for this quarter is with the X being available for less than two months of the three? Don't they realize that the X -- with much higher ASPs -- will be ruling the world for most of 2018? And are they totally ignoring that Apple will have over 300 billion cash by next year? What are we missing? No, no, no, and yes. It is truly amazing that Apple has become the biggest despite nearly constant skepticism.
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Post by dreamRaj on Nov 6, 2017 7:34:34 GMT -8
Disappointed with the post ER action. Don't people understand that this earnings beat was without the X which means that the iPhone 8 sales were quite good? Can't they figure out that the 15% higher guidance for this quarter is with the X being available for less than two months of the three? Don't they realize that the X -- with much higher ASPs -- will be ruling the world for most of 2018? And are they totally ignoring that Apple will have over 300 billion cash by next year? What are we missing? No, no, no, and yes. It is truly amazing that Apple has become the biggest despite nearly constant skepticism. Heck! This lackluster response to the ER would still make sense if Apple was lacking or slacking in the other areas of its business. But they're doing just fine there too going from strength to strength. I was thinking it'll take a day for the reality of Apple's current and future big numbers to kick in but dumb people clearly need more time.
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Post by artman1033 on Nov 6, 2017 7:57:43 GMT -8
AAPL ALL TIME HIGH! $174.99 All Time Highest TODAY intraday
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ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 552
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Post by ono on Nov 6, 2017 8:02:00 GMT -8
Morgan Stanley says financials show Apple anticipates iPhone supercycle After analyzing Apple's latest 10-K filing, Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty pointed to three metrics - - as evidence that the company is preparing for a strong iPhone cycle. off-balance sheet purchase commitments; vendor nontrade receivables; and inventory These three metrics grew 64% sequentially, which is more than in any other period in Apple's history, Huberty tells investors, adding that the prior high was at the start of the iPhone 6 supercycle. She keeps an Overweight rating and $200 price target on Apple shares. thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=2636436
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ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 552
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Post by ono on Nov 6, 2017 9:06:53 GMT -8
No, no, no, and yes. It is truly amazing that Apple has become the biggest despite nearly constant skepticism. Heck! This lackluster response to the ER would still make sense if Apple was lacking or slacking in the other areas of its business. But they're doing just fine there too going from strength to strength. I was thinking it'll take a day for the reality of Apple's current and future big numbers to kick in but dumb people clearly need more time. On this point, I recalled reading this back in Sept. Hopefully, like you say, it'll just take some time... aaplmodel.blogspot.com/2017/09/fiscal-4q-2017-final-estimates.html#more"Fiscal 2019 consensus estimates of at least mid single-digits growth seem key for continued stock appreciation. Those will be publicly available in financial sites after Q4 gets reported (likely on Oct 31). Of course, Dec quarter guidance given that same day is immensely important, but everyone already knows this. Right? Ok. Just remember to also get a peek at 2019 estimates then, and maybe allow a couple weeks for analysts' model updates to trickle through the data services to see how these evolve early on."
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Nov 6, 2017 9:15:36 GMT -8
Disappointed with the post ER action. Don't people understand that this earnings beat was without the X which means that the iPhone 8 sales were quite good? Can't they figure out that the 15% higher guidance for this quarter is with the X being available for less than two months of the three? Don't they realize that the X -- with much higher ASPs -- will be ruling the world for most of 2018? And are they totally ignoring that Apple will have over 300 billion cash by next year? What are we missing? If you’re disappointed now when the stock is rising every day, brace yourself for the inevitable next cycle of FUD when the stock goes down 8-10% for no reason. Will it be the “crackgate: iPhone X breaks when you drop it” kind of FUD or the “tough compare: Apple will never be able to top their iPhone x success next year, so sell now”? Impossible to tell, but it will come.
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 6, 2017 10:04:34 GMT -8
Disappointed with the post ER action. Don't people understand that this earnings beat was without the X which means that the iPhone 8 sales were quite good? Can't they figure out that the 15% higher guidance for this quarter is with the X being available for less than two months of the three? Don't they realize that the X -- with much higher ASPs -- will be ruling the world for most of 2018? And are they totally ignoring that Apple will have over 300 billion cash by next year? What are we missing? What are you expecting, realistically? You can see a chart of historic P/E ratio here: bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=True&insttype=Stock&symb=aapl&time=13&startdate=1%2F15%2F2008&enddate=5%2F18%2F2012&freq=2&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=8388608&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=128&style=320&size=4&x=41&y=11&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=8(normally I like manually trimming down those URLs a bit, but it seems to not be happy with me doing that) AAPL's P/E is around the highest it has been in 7 years. I'd expect a P/e of 20 to be high for the stock, given historic pricing, though we could overshoot that on expectations for this quarter. 9.19*20 is "only" 183.8. 21 gives $193 (AAPL's $1T level!). You can eek a little more out by adjusting EPS for the buybacks. It's been almost 4% over the last year. Assume that was a straight line over the year (it wasn't), and you can make a 2% adjustment, for about 187.5 and a little under 197 for P/E of 20 and 21, respectively. It's when you start looking forward to future earnings that things get iffy. But on the bullish side, say they beat last year's EPS by 20%, or even 30%. Off of $3.36/share, that's roughly .70-$1 YOY. At a trailing P/E of 20, that adds $14-$20 per share. Using that same P/E of 20, which gives $184 now, that would be $198-$204. (OTOH, towards the high end of the revenue guidance puts it at 10% more than YOY. If earnings also gain 10% total, plus 4% for EPS comparison, you're looking at 14%, or +.47 EPS. That's roughly $10 at a P/E of 20, so $194...up 11% from here next quarter. With that in mind, I think it's likely we'll be seeing a high in the 195-205 range next quarter) Will that happen? Is that realistic? Personally, in the longer term I see AAPL's P/E having 20 as the very top end, and I don't see it holding too long. It may hold for a while, but only while future quarters look especially good. Longer term, I'd guess 15-16 would be a rough average as it has been for the past 7 years, and I'd expect to see a dip below 12 and possibly down to 10 if things look negative for the market and for Apple at the same time. Those swing extremes will be minimized as Apple spreads their revenue across items, and so Services can help both on the earnings side and the multiple side. The question is how consistent are those Services numbers? They should hold in good market times when Apple has lower revenue from other things (i.e. a non-super cycle year), but a question is how sticky are Services if the whole economy is down? That's something that we can guess at, but won't really know. But most people probably feel they would be much more consistent than other revenue streams, in a negative economic market. But in general, as Apple's market cap has increased over the years, the stock has been slower to react, and has had a lower magnitude of reaction. Someone adding $100k in AAPL now gets 300 times less shares than they would 20 years ago. Give it time....and enjoy these new ATH's and 1+% gains. It might not feel as rewarding as a 5+% gain, but start compounding them over a couple weeks, and it makes it happen. It might not seem fair compared to how other stocks, even sizable ones, have reacted to news. But AAPL is a different beast, the King of the Jungle. So while AAPL might not have the multiple that other stocks may (currently?) have, it does still react to future earnings and earnings increases. As Apple keeps growing that solid base, the stock will keep increasing.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 6, 2017 10:50:23 GMT -8
Here's a zoomed in version of the P/E chart, for the past 7 years: bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=True&insttype=Stock&symb=aapl&time=100&startdate=1%2F30%2F2011&enddate=11%2F6%2F2017&freq=2&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=8388608&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=128&style=320&size=4&x=38&y=10&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=8P/E's aren't perfect, but they do give reasonably good long term relative bounds. I'd love for AAPL to break out of that, even if only short term....positively of course. Back to the 50x multiple from long ago, even for just a day, and I promise to contribute to both the federal income tax collection and local or not so local real estate market. But realistically, IMO, 20 is roughly the upper bounds unless Apple makes a major proven leap into other things. Or if the new pricing for a X increases the ASP by so much, in the major product line, that it moves the gross margins dramatically....all without any major backlash. But software (high GM), high end AR gear, or just some amazingly high end models (platinum level watch and phone) would potentially get there easier. We'll see. Go AAPL! Each day it goes up 1.5%, the gain is as big as the annual dividend. Thanks AAPL!
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Post by rob_london on Nov 6, 2017 10:54:19 GMT -8
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Post by dreamRaj on Nov 6, 2017 11:11:57 GMT -8
Disappointed with the post ER action. Don't people understand that this earnings beat was without the X which means that the iPhone 8 sales were quite good? Can't they figure out that the 15% higher guidance for this quarter is with the X being available for less than two months of the three? Don't they realize that the X -- with much higher ASPs -- will be ruling the world for most of 2018? And are they totally ignoring that Apple will have over 300 billion cash by next year? What are we missing? If you’re disappointed now when the stock is rising every day, brace yourself for the inevitable next cycle of FUD when the stock goes down 8-10% for no reason. Will it be the “crackgate: iPhone X breaks when you drop it” kind of FUD or the “tough compare: Apple will never be able to top their iPhone x success next year, so sell now”? Impossible to tell, but it will come. Just like the rest of you on this board, I do know all of that. Been through every single roller-coaster ride for well over a decade now. I was just expressing my disappointment with the rather slow reaction to the nice numbers. But as long as the reaction is going UP, it's all good
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Post by dreamRaj on Nov 6, 2017 11:44:19 GMT -8
Disappointed with the post ER action. Don't people understand that this earnings beat was without the X which means that the iPhone 8 sales were quite good? Can't they figure out that the 15% higher guidance for this quarter is with the X being available for less than two months of the three? Don't they realize that the X -- with much higher ASPs -- will be ruling the world for most of 2018? And are they totally ignoring that Apple will have over 300 billion cash by next year? What are we missing? What are you expecting, realistically? ... 178-180 by today. Not a lot to ask for. I know it's going to happen, maybe sooner than later. But considering the pre-earnings run-up which was impressive, I guess we're going good. The other thing is I'm an options trader. Straight up uncovered calls - weeklies, monthlies, short-term, and leaps. I also have a few thousand shares and like most of you AAPL longs, I don't touch or worry about my shares ever. But when it comes to options, being flat or a gradual rise/decline is like watching paint dry. Not that 168 to 172 was bad or that 172 to 174 today is flat, but I was expecting us to be at 178-180 after a good beat, good guidance, and a fair idea of a good year ahead. Maybe by this weekend or the next. / end of rant
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Nov 6, 2017 12:19:49 GMT -8
Ha! 9to5mac.com/2017/11/06/displaymate-iphone-x-display-rating/" Displaymate released its study of the iPhone X display earlier today and the results are impressive to say the least. If you recall, last year’s iPhone 7 had a record high in display performance. However, the iPhone X is here to take the crown.
Over the years Displaymate has run exhaustive tests on major flagship displays ranging from the Galaxy Note 8, to the Apple Watch. Its ratings definitely hold weight in the tech world. So when it says that the iPhone X has the best all around display it’s ever tested, you know it means something.
The iPhone X matches or sets new Smartphone display performance records for:
Highest Absolute Color Accuracy for any Display (0.9JNCD) which is Visually Indistinguishable From Perfect.
Highest Full Screen Brightness for OLED Smartphones (634 nits).
Highest Full Screen Contrast Rating in Ambient Light (141).
Highest Contrast Ratio (Infinite).
Lowest Screen Reflectance (4.5 percent).
Smallest Brightness Variation with Viewing Angle (22 percent).
These are only a few of the categories that gave Apple’s new flagship a win though..."
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 6, 2017 12:33:21 GMT -8
The other thing is I'm an options trader. Straight up uncovered calls - weeklies, monthlies, short-term, and leaps. I also have a few thousand shares and like most of you AAPL longs, I don't touch or worry about my shares ever. But when it comes to options, being flat or a gradual rise/decline is like watching paint dry. Not that 168 to 172 was bad or that 172 to 174 today is flat, but I was expecting us to be at 178-180 after a good beat, good guidance, and a fair idea of a good year ahead. Maybe by this weekend or the next. It'll get there. But depending on your option strategy, it's tough. While options once made me a lot of money, they also at times lost me a lot. It looks like you're doing fairly well, even it it's not quite where you'd like it to be. I switched my options strategies over the years as AAPL changed, going from straight calls, to OTM spreads, to ATM or ITM spreads....basically getting less and less risky. And while I really wanted to make some options purchases in the last couple weeks, it wasn't quite right for what I was going after. The risk wasn't quite worth the potential reward, considering our current risk level. But in retrospect, you sure can kick yourself for not maximizing this rise from 155 to 175 in such short order. OTOH, if this path follows the end of 2014, in gaining some and then retreating into January expirations, then we just might see a Feb like 2015. And for that, I'd be willing to risk a good amount of money. In the long term, AAPL and Apple are headed in the right direction. But there might be some fun (thinking of you, Lucky) opportunities between now and then
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Post by artman1033 on Nov 6, 2017 13:05:46 GMT -8
AAPL ALL TIME HIGH!$174.99All Time Highest TODAY intraday! 34,264,811 shares traded today AAPL CLOSES AT ALL TIME HIGH CLOSE $174.25aaplinvestors.net/stats/rank/AAPL market CAP. 899.78 BILLION AAPL ALL TIME HIGH market CAP. 902.00 BILLION INTRADAY TODAY
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