Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on Nov 16, 2017 3:46:41 GMT -8
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coma
Member
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Post by coma on Nov 16, 2017 4:30:27 GMT -8
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Nov 16, 2017 8:49:44 GMT -8
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Nov 16, 2017 12:03:47 GMT -8
How many reinvested their dividend? How many are waiting for a better price?
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Post by Luckychoices on Nov 16, 2017 13:31:08 GMT -8
How many reinvested their dividend? How many are waiting for a better price? Close to 60% of our AAPL stock is in our IRAs and *all* of our IRA AAPL dividends are auto-reinvested. I gave up waiting for a better price 15 years ago when I proved to myself I had no clue about whether the AAPL share price would be going up or down *significantly* in the short term and I've seen nothing in the last 15 years to indicate to me that I was mistaken. I've also noticed, judging from comments on this board, that many times the folks who wait for a *better* price, often end up with a worse one.
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 16, 2017 15:48:41 GMT -8
How many reinvested their dividend? How many are waiting for a better price? Close to 60% of our AAPL stock is in our IRAs and *all* of our IRA AAPL dividends are auto-reinvested. I gave up waiting for a better price 15 years ago when I proved to myself I had no clue about whether the AAPL share price would be going up or down *significantly* in the short term and I've seen nothing in the last 15 years to indicate to me that I was mistaken. I've also noticed, judging from comments on this board, that many times the folks who wait for a *better* price, often end up with a worse one. Sometimes the best prices come early! If you're one to think that options sometimes drive the stock, especially in the short term, it might be handy to note that the December monthlies have roughly double the open interest of tomorrow's November monthlies....and January's are roughly 4 times in size. While all are spread over a few strikes, they start at 170. While I don't know that that gives betting odds on seeing sub-170 again in the next 2 months, I wouldn't be entirely surprised to see that. And things are really looking similar to the end of 2014/2015. IMO nothing is absolute, but it might be seen like a magnet, where it can pull the stock in a specific direction, and it takes a little more effort to move away from that strike. Another way to go is to write some Puts at 170. When I checked earlier, the December's were something like $2.82 and January's were $4.85. So if ok buying in lots of 100 shares, that would give you the equivalent of ~167.20 or ~165.20 share price. Personally I don't see a sub-170 price sticking for long over the next 2+ months...though 169.95-169.99 could be a closing price on expiration in January. If I end up selling a few thousand shares in our taxable account this year, in order to minimize our tax rate over the long term just like Apple does, I'll be ready to write some puts as long as AAPL continues to look like it will go up over the longer term. (BTW, options OI today points more towards a 175 close tomorrow, though it depends on if today's volume on 172.5 puts and calls adds to the OI. Either way, there is wiggle room , which allows for upwards movements from tax changes (...and seems to be the way, overcorrection on Thursday, then mild recover on Friday....all is happy, and the price ends up where some might happen to want it....though I'm starting to sound like the conspiracy theories from 10 years ago...). As for odds for getting down to 170 within 50 cents over the next 2 months. I'm giving it 1/3 odds, though could see 50% odds pretty easily....and some might be at 99% odds. It all depends on how much you think the tail might wag the dog. Good luck all....but as always with AAPL, expect that there might be some dips due to false news or unsubstantiated rumors. And it might just move the stock at a time where options writers come out ahead. Weird coincidence, really....that happens just a bit too often)
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