Since84
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Post by Since84 on Dec 19, 2017 3:43:50 GMT -8
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benoir
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Post by benoir on Dec 19, 2017 4:05:58 GMT -8
Interesting observation from Robert Leitao in a comment over at PEDI’m buy and hold type, but you need some volatility... some frothiness, in which the share price can move up or down. I had always assumed that share buyback was good for my holding. But speculation, to a good degree(or the only degree), drives the price, which is essential for any long position. [bold text, my emphasis]
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Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on Dec 19, 2017 12:55:23 GMT -8
Gets quiet around here on down days.
Many years in Apple have trained me to take the down with the up. It's the overall trend that matters. Personally, I'm thrilled to see AAPL trading in the $175 range. Six months ago did you expect it to be this high this year?
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Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on Dec 19, 2017 12:57:34 GMT -8
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bud777
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Post by bud777 on Dec 19, 2017 14:12:23 GMT -8
Interesting observation from Robert Leitao in a comment over at PEDI’m buy and hold type, but you need some volatility... some frothiness, in which the share price can move up or down. I had always assumed that share buyback was good for my holding. But speculation, to a good degree(or the only degree), drives the price, which is essential for any long position. [bold text, my emphasis] I think that you are generally right that the bias has shifted toward Apple as a long term investment. Certainly, we used to see volatility in the 40's and recently saw it drop to the high teens. Since the hope of repatriation, however, I think we have seen a return of the short term "get-rich-quick" investors in the rise from 115 to 175. Once the tax bill passes and Apple makes clear what they will do with the excess money we may see investors move on. Those who are after tech growth are going to go back to Amazon and Google and those who are after dividends are going to chase them somewhere else. It would be great to think that everyone shares our appreciation for this particular mix of growth, dividends and safety, but we have seen too many times in the past that it is not so. There is no doubt that Apple is going to continue to succeed as a company, but the stock will, IMHO, still be vulnerable to the manipulation of the market through FUD. I don't think we will see anyone able to drive it from 700 to 385 like they did in 2013 because Apple will stop it, just like they did when it was around 500. But the drop from 134 to 90 was pretty significant even with buybacks. I would not be surprised to see an exodus start in May. Of course, if Apple follows my polite request and splits 3-1 in April, all bets are off.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 19, 2017 18:57:33 GMT -8
I think that you are generally right that the bias has shifted toward Apple as a long term investment. Certainly, we used to see volatility in the 40's and recently saw it drop to the high teens. Since the hope of repatriation, however, I think we have seen a return of the short term "get-rich-quick" investors in the rise from 115 to 175. Once the tax bill passes and Apple makes clear what they will do with the excess money we may see investors move on. Those who are after tech growth are going to go back to Amazon and Google and those who are after dividends are going to chase them somewhere else. It would be great to think that everyone shares our appreciation for this particular mix of growth, dividends and safety, but we have seen too many times in the past that it is not so. There is no doubt that Apple is going to continue to succeed as a company, but the stock will, IMHO, still be vulnerable to the manipulation of the market through FUD. I don't think we will see anyone able to drive it from 700 to 385 like they did in 2013 because Apple will stop it, just like they did when it was around 500. But the drop from 134 to 90 was pretty significant even with buybacks. I would not be surprised to see an exodus start in May. Of course, if Apple follows my polite request and splits 3-1 in April, all bets are off. What makes you so sure Apple won't increase the divy significantly? The majority of Apple revenues are overseas now, so the company could actually double its bottom line, assuming it will now regularly realize and repatriate that money. Pay off the 70B+ in debt, buy back some stock, and make a few acquisitions, then what's Apple going to do, let tens and then hundreds of billions languish at Braeburn at 1%? That wouldn't be sustainable politically.
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bud777
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Post by bud777 on Dec 19, 2017 23:53:11 GMT -8
I have no idea what they will do with the dividend, but up until now, they have seen fit to increase it a a pretty modest rate, despite having the money available. They are not even matching Microsoft FFS, so I don't see a compelling case for them all of a sudden deciding to increase it. Increased buybacks maybe, but what is the benefit to Apple of giving a windfall dividend? My thinking is based on the idea that the amount of money they had before the tax change was so extraordinary that the additional money from the tax change doesn't matter. What decision would they make now about the business that they could not have made before the repatriation? From that perspective, it is hard to see why things would change. However, one thing that WOULD change is that the uncertainty (hope) of a windfall will be gone. Aren't they already letting billions of dollars sit at 1%? What is a few 10's of billions more? I am not sure what you meant about it being politically unacceptable, but it doesn't seem like stockholders have been complaining too loudly so far.
it will be interesting to see what happens, I just think that whatever happens, once the dust settles we will see a lot of people rotating out of Apple.
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