Since84
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Post by Since84 on Jan 8, 2018 3:21:15 GMT -8
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Post by osx10 on Jan 8, 2018 4:32:34 GMT -8
If people are using iPhones less because of Amazon Echos, I'd be investing in companies that make super long extension cords as using Echos outside the home must be a challenge.
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Ted
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Post by Ted on Jan 8, 2018 7:46:50 GMT -8
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bud777
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Post by bud777 on Jan 8, 2018 9:40:08 GMT -8
I just got around to reading part one of Mav's article and really enjoyed it. Thank you Mav for for doing all the hard work. Your analysis is head and shoulders above what we get from the professional analysts.
There are a couple of points that I think deserve further discussion. First, I think that the cumulative graph you showed toward the end of the article( Cumulative sales) does indeed look like an example of a logistic curve with inflection points around FQ 4 2013 and FG1 2016.
China Mobile's website gives the number of 4G subscribers at the end of each year so we can subtract to get the number of new 4G customers per year. I get the following: At the end of 2014 90 million new customers. 2015 = 222 million. 2016 = 222 million. 2017 =103855. So 2015 is easy to explain. The rise in Apple correlates to the huge jump in 4G subscribers. But what about 2016? The slower growth rate in 2016 needs to be explained since the growth in subscribers was the same as 2015. I think this has been overlooked by most analysts.
Conversely, it is encouraging that the growth rate in iPhone sales did not drop in half in 2017 as the growth in 4G subscribers dropped to half of 2016.
My remarks are cursory and probably to simplistic, but I do think it is important to view growth numbers in the context of the changing customer base.
I look forward to part 2 of the article.
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mark
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Post by mark on Jan 8, 2018 10:50:36 GMT -8
If people are using iPhones less because of Amazon Echos, I'd be investing in companies that make super long extension cords as using Echos outside the home must be a challenge. I've been thinking of putting one (an echo dot or a google home mini) in my car. There's a hotspot in there that it can use.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 8, 2018 12:58:56 GMT -8
The question in my mind is if the analyst or other info is the same for the one this morning (dropping guidance on Cirrus Logic, because they are a major benefactor of the iPhone X, and they expect fewer iPhone X shipments) vs the story that came out on the 26th, which in my memory was basically the same thing.
And both times the stories came out a couple hours before the market opened for the week, after AAPL closed at 175 the Friday before.
It doesn't have to be a conspiracy story, and I hope I don't get blinders on so tight that I don't see the forest for the trees, but sometimes it sure looks like someone is doing a good job playing AAPL for a song.
Truthfully I was expecting the drop out of the gates this morning, and when it was holding steady an hour in (when I first checked it....thanks to the Flu) I thought there was a chance we'd climb to a new high at 178 over a few days before seeing a drop. But it's looking like we could stay a little closer to 170 than that.
As a side note, if you didn't get a flu shot this season, get one. While it may only be ~40% effective this year (some years it's as high as 60%), most of the people in our family and extended family that got it had it last a week or longer. The CDC page says it takes up to 2 weeks for the shot's benefit to maximize. While it didn't put any of us on our death beds, it's still something that I would have preferred to avoid. Ahhh, the wonderful side benefits of an extended visit with the relatives.
(in general only about 40% of people get the flu shot. In our county it's just a little lower, at 38%, which RGJ claimed is the lowest in the US.)
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Post by dreamRaj on Jan 8, 2018 13:07:59 GMT -8
... Truthfully I was expecting the drop out of the gates this morning, and when it was holding steady an hour in, I thought there was a chance we'd climb to a new high at 178 over a few days before seeing a drop. But it's looking like we could stay a little closer to 170 than that. Same thoughts here. AAPL is the only one in the FAANG group to be negative today while ALL the others hit their ATHs.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 8, 2018 13:11:18 GMT -8
Optimism from some market players balanced with fear from others...
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Jan 8, 2018 14:09:09 GMT -8
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Post by incorrigible on Jan 8, 2018 14:55:11 GMT -8
The question in my mind is if the analyst or other info is the same for the one this morning (dropping guidance on Cirrus Logic, because they are a major benefactor of the iPhone X, and they expect fewer iPhone X shipments) vs the story that came out on the 26th, which in my memory was basically the same thing. And both times the stories came out a couple hours before the market opened for the week, after AAPL closed at 175 the Friday before. It doesn't have to be a conspiracy story, and I hope I don't get blinders on so tight that I don't see the forest for the trees, but sometimes it sure looks like someone is doing a good job playing AAPL for a song. Truthfully I was expecting the drop out of the gates this morning, and when it was holding steady an hour in (when I first checked it....thanks to the Flu) I thought there was a chance we'd climb to a new high at 178 over a few days before seeing a drop. But it's looking like we could stay a little closer to 170 than that. As a side note, if you didn't get a flu shot this season, get one. While it may only be ~40% effective this year (some years it's as high as 60%), most of the people in our family and extended family that got it had it last a week or longer. The CDC page says it takes up to 2 weeks for the shot's benefit to maximize. While it didn't put any of us on our death beds, it's still something that I would have preferred to avoid. Ahhh, the wonderful side benefits of an extended visit with the relatives. My thoughts on AAPL manipulation: Let them have their fun. Stay long and don't worry about the manipulation and short term price swings. As far as the flu, I never get flu shots. Got the flu in mid December and was miserable until after new years. Bad strain this year. Wife got it too. We both ended up with sinus infections and ear infections.
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Jan 8, 2018 16:06:12 GMT -8
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 8, 2018 16:06:46 GMT -8
The question in my mind is if the analyst or other info is the same for the one this morning (dropping guidance on Cirrus Logic, because they are a major benefactor of the iPhone X, and they expect fewer iPhone X shipments) vs the story that came out on the 26th, which in my memory was basically the same thing. And both times the stories came out a couple hours before the market opened for the week, after AAPL closed at 175 the Friday before. It doesn't have to be a conspiracy story, and I hope I don't get blinders on so tight that I don't see the forest for the trees, but sometimes it sure looks like someone is doing a good job playing AAPL for a song. Truthfully I was expecting the drop out of the gates this morning, and when it was holding steady an hour in (when I first checked it....thanks to the Flu) I thought there was a chance we'd climb to a new high at 178 over a few days before seeing a drop. But it's looking like we could stay a little closer to 170 than that. As a side note, if you didn't get a flu shot this season, get one. While it may only be ~40% effective this year (some years it's as high as 60%), most of the people in our family and extended family that got it had it last a week or longer. The CDC page says it takes up to 2 weeks for the shot's benefit to maximize. While it didn't put any of us on our death beds, it's still something that I would have preferred to avoid. Ahhh, the wonderful side benefits of an extended visit with the relatives. My thoughts on AAPL manipulation: Let them have their fun. Stay long and don't worry about the manipulation and short term price swings. As far as the flu, I never get flu shots. Got the flu in mid December and was miserable until after new years. Bad strain this year. Wife got it too. We both ended up with sinus infections and ear infections. There's a few nasty things going around. Back just after Thanksgiving, we had a bad cold, where the cough stuck around for weeks. And now the flu. Blah. It makes me want to be incorrigible, you know. On AAPL, and it's manipulation, this is one of the few times that I can see with some conviction what is going on, and the price levels look exact (and now it won't be, just for kicks....darn TGH per Ken Fisher). But I was wanting to sell some shares to lock in some lower taxes, and figured it would be good to try to play the market too. That said, I was holding out for a bit too much, and then that Dec 22nd relative high was while we were packing and headed down to see the relatives, so I missed it. I still sold some shares, in the last minutes of trading on the 29th. And then I bought them back a little lower a couple minutes later. Nothing special, but I'll go ahead and pay 15% instead of 23.8% on some long term gains. Still, it's good to pay attention to what is BS out there, and how they are getting the manipulation to happen. It still seems like the secret sauce is "unnamed sources" for Apple suppliers. Just enough ambiguity to worry people that are ready to be worried. And with no news from Apple (wait for earnings, dude) when near the ATH, there's plenty of people that are willing to be worried. I wouldn't bother rereading either of the cnbc articles now, but I'm going to put in their links anyways, in case someone wants to refer to them in the future. Dec 26th article saying iPhone X shipments could be as low as 35M, 10M less than expected: www.cnbc.com/2017/12/26/apple-suppliers-drop-on-report-of-weak-iphone-x-demand.htmlThe Barron's article takes a look at the situation, www.barrons.com/articles/apple-slips-as-reuters-bloomberg-cite-speculation-iphone-x-sales-slip-1514297874For Jan 8th, KeyBanc Capital Markets downgrades Apple supplier Cirrus Logic saying there is iPhone X sales are worse than expected, but then saying it's just the iPhone mix that's off, and recommending to continue holding AAPL....though that last part was not in the cnbc article, and just a later benzinga article. www.cnbc.com/2018/01/08/keybanc-capital-markets-says-iphone-x-sales-are-worse-than-expected.html?__source=yahoo%7Cfinance%7Cheadline%7Cheadline%7Cstory&par=yahoo&doc=104933586&yptr=yahoowww.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/18/01/11000036/keybanc-apple-supplier-cirrus-logic-has-limited-catalysSometimes the quote "It's all just a game, it's all just a game" from Michael Douglas pops into my mind, though I can't remember for sure if that's from one of the Wall Street movies, or from The Game. All were good, and worth rematching. Long term, as long as Apple keeps growing it's earnings, the stock will keep growing too. Short term, whether that's days, months, or years, there's a lot that can happen. It's all just a game.
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CdnPhoto
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Post by CdnPhoto on Jan 8, 2018 17:02:34 GMT -8
And yet, they stuck to their $190 price target.
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Post by tuffett on Jan 8, 2018 18:47:18 GMT -8
It's disappointing that Alexa seems to have taken over and Siri still sucks. I'm honestly dumbfounded at how little progress Siri has made after so long. It's still a very, very dumb assistant good for little more than setting timers and conducting very simple queries. My brief experience using an Echo (only for music selection, mind you) was far better. I'm not at all optimistic about HomePod because although the audio will be great, Siri is terrible, the cost is high and a lot of the people who want a smart speaker now already have one.
No, Apple isn't doomed. They're doing great in all their product lines, but Siri has been a massive disappointment since launch - over SIX years ago.
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 8, 2018 19:45:07 GMT -8
My thoughts on AAPL manipulation: Let them have their fun. Stay long and don't worry about the manipulation and short term price swings. +100 I agree with you 100%. In what sane market, would the share price of FIT *increase* 5.25% in one session as it did earlier in this year? I remember seeing it *drop* over 5% on a day in 2017. Are those "investors" causing that movement? IMO, one of the reasons the market (and AAPL) fluctuates so much is because too many people want to get wealthy quickly and I'm sure some feel that long-term investing is for suckers. As far as the flu, I never get flu shots. Got the flu in mid December and was miserable until after new years. Bad strain this year. Wife got it too. We both ended up with sinus infections and ear infections. -100 Nope. My wife and I get flu shots every year and I can't remember the last time we had the flu. Life's too short to be miserable because of the flu. So sorry to hear that you guys and 4aapl's whole family got this year's crud. Hope you're all fully recovered soon.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 8, 2018 19:53:33 GMT -8
It's disappointing that Alexa seems to have taken over and Siri still sucks. I'm honestly dumbfounded at how little progress Siri has made after so long. It's still a very, very dumb assistant good for little more than setting timers and conducting very simple queries. My brief experience using an Echo (only for music selection, mind you) was far better. I'm not at all optimistic about HomePod because although the audio will be great, Siri is terrible, the cost is high and a lot of the people who want a smart speaker now already have one. No, Apple isn't doomed. They're doing great in all their product lines, but Siri has been a massive disappointment since launch - over SIX years ago. Do you have some examples of things that Siri doesn't do well, and that Alexa does better? I know in the past I've had times where Siri gets confused, thinking I mean something else, such as "finding such and such nearby". But I've also had a lot of times it was spot on, including something like "how long does it take for the flu shot to work", giving me the CDC page as the top hit. That finally stopped some badgering. And I've tried a few times with music, such as when the kids want to play the song firework, or cheerleader, or whatever. I haven't tried too many searches, and don't have most of our music on my iPhone, but when I have searched it has found it. I'm sure there's some things that Alexa is doing better. I just want to know what they are. To that end, we were told by friends years ago that they liked the Fire over an iPad because they could set up time limits for the kids, and have them read before getting to play for x minutes. We got a Fire at xmas ($50 for an 8" tablet...a very cheap way to do some competitive analysis if nothing else), and my wife just set up some of those time limits today. To the best of my knowledge, the iPad still doesn't have that....though maybe there's an app for that. It seems pretty obvious, even without the competitive analysis, if you've ever had to wrestle an iPad out of a kids hands. Again, and again, and again. I keep meaning to send Tim an email. Hopefully the bounced email address message that others recently had was only temporary.
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