chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Jan 20, 2018 11:34:40 GMT -8
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ono
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compensation
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Post by ono on Jan 20, 2018 13:52:52 GMT -8
Checking out the mixpanel adoption charts, it appears the adoption rate of the new phones has decelerated somewhat. A few weeks back, someone here pointed out to me that this doesn't look like the iPhone 6 and 6+ super cycle. There is a much larger base today, and likely higher ASP, so revenues should still be very strong. mixpanel.com/trends/#report/iphone_8_X/from_date:-70,report_unit:day,to_date:0
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ono
Member
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Posts: 537
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Post by ono on Jan 20, 2018 19:40:19 GMT -8
Unverified, but I read that Apple may now be matching employee charitable donations by 2x; $10K employee donation matched with $20K matching from Apple for a $30K impact. Not clear if this is meant as a 1 time thing, or a new policy that an employee can trigger per year.
Yes, 1-to-1 ($10K-$10K) has been the policy.
A few days back I said with regards to cash "Apple has a problem, a nice problem."
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Jan 21, 2018 8:47:13 GMT -8
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Post by tuffett on Jan 21, 2018 10:37:35 GMT -8
I expect a blowout for this quarter but I fear guidance may not be as high as many expect and it’s not a given that the stock trades higher. We are at all-time highs after all - a lot of good news might be priced in.
iPhone X seems to have caught up very quickly in many major markets, so demand spillover into FQ2 may be muted. I also think a lot of people will be going the battery replacement route, deferring upgrades longer than initially anticipated. I suspect Apple will want to add some conservatism into their guidance as a result, because the true impact is likely not yet fully understood.
People will want to hear about cash plans but as usual Apple will defer any comment until April. This could add to the negativity.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Jan 21, 2018 15:51:16 GMT -8
This could add to the negativity. No, I think you pretty much covered negativity. So, I assume you are making the appropriate trades?
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Post by michelc on Jan 21, 2018 17:51:51 GMT -8
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ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 537
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Post by ono on Jan 21, 2018 18:07:20 GMT -8
I expect a blowout for this quarter but I fear guidance may not be as high as many expect and it’s not a given that the stock trades higher. We are at all-time highs after all - a lot of good news might be priced in. iPhone X seems to have caught up very quickly in many major markets, so demand spillover into FQ2 may be muted. I also think a lot of people will be going the battery replacement route, deferring upgrades longer than initially anticipated. I suspect Apple will want to add some conservatism into their guidance as a result, because the true impact is likely not yet fully understood. People will want to hear about cash plans but as usual Apple will defer any comment until April. This could add to the negativity. Agree that AAPL will be cautious and analyst will be too, with their updates and targets. A strong narrative around growth of services, I hope, helps.
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ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 537
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Post by ono on Jan 21, 2018 18:45:21 GMT -8
Gawd... Feb 1 earnings can't come soon enough.
By Kenan Machado Jan. 21, 2018 9:23 p.m. ET 0 COMMENTS Asian stocks were largely muted early Monday following the federal government shutdown in the U.S., but South Korea’s benchmark index slipped on fresh worries about iPhone demand.
Samsung Electronics fell 2% amid speculation that orders for the iPhone X would be cut. Although the smartphone maker is Apple’s biggest rival, it is also a global manufacturer of components.
Samsung’s next-generation displays feature organic light-emitting diodes, or OLED, technology Apple has adopted for the iPhone X. But SK Kim, who tracks Samsung for Daiwa Securities, said there are some concerns Apple could stop using OLED screens amid quality issues.
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Post by osx10 on Jan 21, 2018 20:10:28 GMT -8
Maybe Apple skips an event and debuts HomePod with an ad and quick on sale following a cutting edge ad in the Super Bowl.. they’ve advertised there before
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Post by tuffett on Jan 21, 2018 20:40:25 GMT -8
This could add to the negativity. No, I think you pretty much covered negativity. So, I assume you are making the appropriate trades? Sorry for not assuming that AAPL is going to higher forever. Have we all already forgotten about the past few years and how the stock can trade completely against long term fundamentals? Jesus Christ, people are sensitive here. I’m long the stock, but I’m certainly not buying short term calls assuming the stock will be trading higher after earnings. Of course it could, but I’m not sure enough to bet on it. Nor am I sure it’s going to drop - I was simply pointing out some potential issues. Anyway, sorry to rain on your parade. I’m sure AAPL will go up every single day. Seems like it’s sacreligious to suggest otherwise, even with a supporting argument. I for one will not be surprised if AAPL is not much higher after Feb 1. I know the stock well enough to not be surprised at anything anymore.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Jan 21, 2018 21:19:27 GMT -8
No, I think you pretty much covered negativity. So, I assume you are making the appropriate trades? Sorry for not assuming that AAPL is going to higher forever. Have we all already forgotten about the past few years and how the stock can trade completely against long term fundamentals? Jesus Christ, people are sensitive here. I’m long the stock, but I’m certainly not buying short term calls assuming the stock will be trading higher after earnings. Of course it could, but I’m not sure enough to bet on it. Nor am I sure it’s going to drop - I was simply pointing out some potential issues. Anyway, sorry to rain on your parade. I’m sure AAPL will go up every single day. Seems like it’s sacreligious to suggest otherwise, even with a supporting argument. I for one will not be surprised if AAPL is not much higher after Feb 1. I know the stock well enough to not be surprised at anything anymore. Well, I guess that we just disagree about Apple's holiday season performance and what is likely to be reported on February 1. I am well aware, having held AAPL since 2006 of both its volatility and the hostility it faces from Wall Street despite very strong performance and fundamentals, as witnessed a year before the most recent. I am sure that you remember I am a long; I have weathered these periods of doubt before, and I believe that Tim has the company on a solid course currently. The market varies in its evaluation of AAPL. I see solid performance and a strong direction in management, one which benefits longs such as myself, rather than short term players (although theoretically they should be able to benefit from moves in either direction). I see nothing to indicate expectations other than continued long term benefit from owning AAPL, beginning with a solid raise in the dividend in February. As skeptical as I am about the the recent tax legislation, I can certainly see how it may be personally beneficial wrt AAPL. No assumptions here, just analysis of what i see. YMMV
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Post by tuffett on Jan 22, 2018 5:47:00 GMT -8
I’m not talking about the long term though. I simply take exception to your assertion that we’ll all be surprised if AAPL isn’t higher after earnings. Anyone who’s been in AAPL for a while should not be surprised with a $10 move either way, for any reason, good or bad.
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