Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 22, 2018 3:37:25 GMT -8
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 22, 2018 7:03:40 GMT -8
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,353
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Post by bud777 on Jan 22, 2018 7:29:10 GMT -8
If you operate on the assumption that the price of the stock can be manipulated by coordinated FUD and if you further assume that much of the phenomenal gain last year was given by people wanting to harvest a one time repatriation distribution, you could conclude that once the announcement is made about what Apple is going to do with the cash, we will see the mother of all FUD storms. I am not expecting a 2013 drop, but I think the stock price is vulnerable. I cannot explain why a stock that the market allowed to languish at a P/E of 12 when it was hitting on all cylinders is suddenly worth a P/E of 20. People did NOT suddenly come to their senses and see the light, regardless of the P/E they have awarded the competition. This has nothing to do with how well the company is doing or what price the stock deserves. It has everything to do with fear and greed.
^^ just my humble opinion
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Post by tuffett on Jan 22, 2018 7:59:40 GMT -8
Agreed. A lot of people seem to be getting complacent, but AAPL can definitely be sold off hard as it has so many times before. I sleep much better at night having split my stake into AMZN, which has outperformed over the past year and historically does not react much to bad news. I’m also moving into more stable dividend growth stocks. AAPL remains a key part of my long term growth portfolio, but I’m no longer all in.
I’m not interested in taking a 30-40% hit to my portfolio while the rest of the market carries on like nothing happened. I’d much rather sell a winner and use the proceeds to increase my AAPL stake at that point.
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Post by Apple II+ on Jan 22, 2018 8:06:33 GMT -8
Anybody else tried and failed to register to attend the shareholder meeting? Registration opened a few minutes ago. I tried immediately, but got this "We’re sorry. Registration for this event has reached maximum capacity, and we are no longer able to accept submissions." Maybe next year.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 22, 2018 8:16:27 GMT -8
I was able to register myself for the Apple Annual meeting.
If you are planning to attend and would like to get together before or after the meeting, please PM me.
If you want to go but were unable to register please PM me ASAP. I'll check with Investor Relations today to see if there are any additional tickets...
Apple Investor Relations has confirmed that all tickets for the Shareholders meeting have been distributed.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,432
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Post by chinacat on Jan 22, 2018 8:31:12 GMT -8
At the risk of being labeled a hopeless Pollyanna, does anyone see this as credible? Gordon Kelly is a relentless Apple naysayer, as evidenced by his weekly roundup of Apple news, and Ming-Chi Kuo has had several of his "scoops" disproven in the past year. The supply chain for Apple's phone lineup for next Fall is already in process, and this would be a major disruption.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,655
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 22, 2018 8:49:48 GMT -8
Agreed. A lot of people seem to be getting complacent, but AAPL can definitely be sold off hard as it has so many times before. I sleep much better at night having split my stake into AMZN, which has outperformed over the past year and historically does not react much to bad news. I’m also moving into more stable dividend growth stocks. AAPL remains a key part of my long term growth portfolio, but I’m no longer all in. I’m not interested in taking a 30-40% hit to my portfolio while the rest of the market carries on like nothing happened. I’d much rather sell a winner and use the proceeds to increase my AAPL stake at that point. And that's my longer term plan, avoiding the big hits. But my big hits have been as much as an 85% haircut, multiple times, due to margin and/or options. This time will be different! Separately, I bought back my shares for the same price I sold them for in my ROTH, and picked up an extra 126 with dividend money that had accumulated. $176.91 I could have gotten it a little lower this morning first thing, or last Tuesday. But while I didn't, I also didn't miss out on much. My plan is to diversify as needed, when the stock is up 10-20% (or annualized if more than a year out). Basically looking at selling when the stock has a P/E around here at 20....but 20 after these earnings come out. While I think Apple is on fairly good footing, the market as a whole is closer to it's top than it's bottom. I'm guessing it's still at least a year away. But I am still borrowing on margin, a much smaller percentage but a large amount equivalent to what our mortgages would be. I want to be proactive this time, and not have that dragging me down in the next big market or AAPL move downward. Just putting that out there, though I know most people don't or shouldn't care. But some do, and if my past folly helps someone else avoid it, then it's well worth it. On AAPL, I think the momentum is going to make this a +20% year, but as we know it can be finicky and change fairly quick. We'll see. Go AAPL!
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Post by sponge on Jan 22, 2018 8:54:40 GMT -8
If you operate on the assumption that the price of the stock can be manipulated by coordinated FUD and if you further assume that much of the phenomenal gain last year was given by people wanting to harvest a one time repatriation distribution, you could conclude that once the announcement is made about what Apple is going to do with the cash, we will see the mother of all FUD storms. I am not expecting a 2013 drop, but I think the stock price is vulnerable. I cannot explain why a stock that the market allowed to languish at a P/E of 12 when it was hitting on all cylinders is suddenly worth a P/E of 20. People did NOT suddenly come to their senses and see the light, regardless of the P/E they have awarded the competition. This has nothing to do with how well the company is doing or what price the stock deserves. It has everything to do with fear and greed. ^^ just my humble opinion I concur. There could be any number of other factors that impact the overall market as well. Last summer it was a simple GS note that took aapl down 9%. However I still think we would jump back to 20 p/e by end of the year. Apple has shown growth in a shrinking market and the consistent dividend growth has increased institutional ownership. Add the extra earnings due to foreign cash and growing services, we find ourselves in much more respectable neighborhood.
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Jan 22, 2018 10:59:53 GMT -8
AAPL could behave somewhat differently moving forward from the way it has in the past. Previously Apple was perceived as only as good as its newest iPhone, that the competition was always hot on its tail, that low iOS market share doomed Apple, that without its founder it had lost its mojo, etc., etc. We used to have Uncle Carl fighting for AAPL's valuation, but it turned out that Icahn was merely another opportunistic investor with a bigger bullhorn than most...
Today is different: Apple's iPhone portfolio is bigger than ever and perceived more to be leading the way with the X; perception of Apple's one-hit wonder status has faded somewhat now that services are growing so nicely; Watch is leading the way in wearables; iPad sales have proven more resilient than a flash in the pan; and now we have the world's greatest investor as a long-term holder and booster. You also don't hear people questioning Tim's leadership skills anymore... I've probably left out a few important items, but you catch my drift.
I'm still too concentrated in AAPL, but have diversified somewhat into AMZN and BABA. I bought FB a year ago at 98, but foolishly sold it when it had a minor meltdown - now FB sits at 180+. Who knew?
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Post by artman1033 on Jan 22, 2018 12:23:20 GMT -8
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 22, 2018 12:34:50 GMT -8
I was able to register myself for the Apple Annual meeting. If you are planning to attend and would like to get together before or after the meeting, please PM me. If you want to go but were unable to register please PM me ASAP. I'll check with Investor Relations today to see if there are any additional tickets...Apple Investor Relations has confirmed that all tickets for the Shareholders meeting have been distributed. My wife and I were *planning* to attend the meeting but were unable to register. However, I'd still like to get together before or after the meeting. We've been to every Apple Shareholder's meetings for the last 4 or 5 years and, while I'm disappointed to not be going to this one, I was mostly looking forward to meeting members of this forum who would be attending. We've always gone early to the meetings in the past to insure ourselves of a seat in the auditorium since the overflow ending up viewing the meeting by means of a screen set up in the cafeteria. If they're using a ticket system to this meeting, that may not require folks to show up quite as early but for anyone getting into the area the night before, dinner may be a chance to meet up.
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Post by Apple II+ on Jan 22, 2018 14:03:59 GMT -8
My wife and I were *planning* to attend the meeting but were unable to register. However, I'd still like to get together before or after the meeting. We've been to every Apple Shareholder's meetings for the last 4 or 5 years and, while I'm disappointed to not be going to this one, I was mostly looking forward to meeting members of this forum who would be attending. We've always gone early to the meetings in the past to insure ourselves of a seat in the auditorium since the overflow ending up viewing the meeting by means of a screen set up in the cafeteria. If they're using a ticket system to this meeting, that may not require folks to show up quite as early but for anyone getting into the area the night before, dinner may be a chance to meet up. Any idea how much overflow seating capacity they used to have outside Town Hall at the Infinite Loop campus? Steve Jobs theater has 1000 seats, while Town Hall only has 300. I took Lucky's advice and got there early 2 years ago and got to sit inside Town Hall, but I have no recollection of how many were in overflow. Can anybody who got a ticket let us know if it's assigned seating?
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 22, 2018 14:15:12 GMT -8
Can anybody who got a ticket let us know if it's assigned seating? The confirmation provides the following details... - Registration will be at the Tantau Reception entrance between 7:30 and 8:30 a.m.
- The meeting is expected to end around 10 a.m
- One must present a government issued picture ID to validate eligibility, attend the meeting and receive event credentials.
- Late entry will not be permitted.
- Traffic approaching the Apple Park Visitor Center will be limited for the event.
- Additional arrival details will be shared closer to the event.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 22, 2018 15:31:36 GMT -8
Humble home gamer notes on Apple's cash tax homecoming.
What we needed to know then for perspective; some takeaways for the here and now under the radically different territorial tax system implemented by the U.S. (for corporations, at least).
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,655
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 22, 2018 16:59:33 GMT -8
We've always gone early to the meetings in the past to insure ourselves of a seat in the auditorium since the overflow ending up viewing the meeting by means of a screen set up in the cafeteria. If they're using a ticket system to this meeting, that may not require folks to show up quite as early but for anyone getting into the area the night before, dinner may be a chance to meet up. Any idea how much overflow seating capacity they used to have outside Town Hall at the Infinite Loop campus? Steve Jobs theater has 1000 seats, while Town Hall only has 300. I took Lucky's advice and got there early 2 years ago and got to sit inside Town Hall, but I have no recollection of how many were in overflow. 11+ years ago, they had a couple overflow rooms upstairs from town hall, with maybe up to 200 people per room. I think the last year I went up there, it was 3 rooms. The cafeteria, at that time, was always for employees, with maybe up to 1,000 watching from there some of the years I watched from there. They really wanted all employees to watch it from there, and not go into the general Town Hall or overflows. I don't believe any of the other streaming areas used for other things were showing it. Things might have been different in the last decade, but the overflow would have had to be substantial for them to want people over at the Cafe, since it is inside the badged area and thus harder to keep everyone contained. Of course the problem with making people sign up early for something is that more people sign up than show up. It seems like there should be a "wait list", but that has the same problem. But I think a lot of people want to see what they can of the new campus, and so there is a lot of interest. At the same time, I can see the security issue of it all. 15 years ago when Apple was still relatively small I wondered about security in general, especially after hearing that long ago when such things were popular, there had been bomb threats at the campus. Now that they are the largest company, they really are at the point where a bad guy could try to get notoriety. But Apple has had security at the event for ages now, kicking up when Gore and his secret service agents attended. I missed that one, but I think that was the start of the metal detectors that have been at the event ever since. Either way, from my perspective it's good to see that so many investors are interested enough to want to go. Not quite the draw of a Berkshire meeting (always tempting), but getting lots of interest none the less.
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Post by incorrigible on Jan 22, 2018 17:14:01 GMT -8
Humble home gamer notes on Apple's cash tax homecoming. What we needed to know then for perspective; some takeaways for the here and now under the radically different territorial tax system implemented by the U.S. (for corporations, at least). Great write up Mav. I think Apple's use of deferred taxes is going to be huge and in a positive way for AAPL shareholders. Smart move on Apple's part with the deferred tax allocations.
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ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 550
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Post by ono on Jan 22, 2018 18:34:52 GMT -8
Humble home gamer notes on Apple's cash tax homecoming. What we needed to know then for perspective; some takeaways for the here and now under the radically different territorial tax system implemented by the U.S. (for corporations, at least). Great write up Mav. I think Apple's use of deferred taxes is going to be huge and in a positive way for AAPL shareholders. Smart move on Apple's part with the deferred tax allocations. Where is this write up? (I followed the link to the site posted in Mav's profile, but didn't see anything current.)
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,655
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 22, 2018 21:28:30 GMT -8
Where is this write up? (I followed the link to the site posted in Mav's profile, but didn't see anything current.) It was there in the twitter type listing, but while it showed up fine with Safari, maybe it didn't work on something due to the leading '.' and such. apple.news/AIaGZ45tiQ-q_CeLBxIoKPAGood thought provoking article on Apple taxes. (In other news, we just came back from a fun makerspace event at one of the local private schools, where they were having the 4th-6th graders use Swift on an iPad to program a path for a Parrot drone to fly. They basically had to put in 6-10 commands to make it do a big rectangle around a room that had a closet in the middle, but due to the drones not consistently following the same path, batteries going dead, and drones getting beat up from crashes, none were able to make it in the landing zone in the 2 hr timeframe. Fun, but frustrating...but good to see Swift being used even in that age range, even if it was simplistic)
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Post by redinaustin on Jan 23, 2018 4:47:46 GMT -8
At the risk of being labeled a hopeless Pollyanna, does anyone see this as credible? Gordon Kelly is a relentless Apple naysayer, as evidenced by his weekly roundup of Apple news, and Ming-Chi Kuo has had several of his "scoops" disproven in the past year. The supply chain for Apple's phone lineup for next Fall is already in process, and this would be a major disruption. I stopped at Forbes Contributor
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ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 550
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Post by ono on Jan 23, 2018 6:48:31 GMT -8
A very good read. Thanks.
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Post by rickag on Jan 23, 2018 11:16:23 GMT -8
Agreed. A lot of people seem to be getting complacent, but AAPL can definitely be sold off hard as it has so many times before. I sleep much better at night having split my stake into AMZN, which has outperformed over the past year and historically does not react much to bad news. I’m also moving into more stable dividend growth stocks. AAPL remains a key part of my long term growth portfolio, but I’m no longer all in. I’m not interested in taking a 30-40% hit to my portfolio while the rest of the market carries on like nothing happened. I’d much rather sell a winner and use the proceeds to increase my AAPL stake at that point. I subscribe to Simply Safe Dividends which is reasonably priced and has what I believe valuable information.
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