Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 29, 2018 3:53:52 GMT -8
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 29, 2018 5:24:16 GMT -8
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 29, 2018 6:11:52 GMT -8
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Post by osx10 on Jan 29, 2018 6:14:00 GMT -8
Being as conservative as Apple usually is wouldn’t they have been less anxious to give such robust outlook for Q1 and ramp up production on the X so quickly if they were worried about Q2? Or is the market being played so that they can buyback a boatload at a discount now with repatriated funds - something doesn’t make sense here
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Post by michelc on Jan 29, 2018 6:23:55 GMT -8
Still have confidence in apple. From a logistic point of view reduction in production would have happen sooner then this. We already are 1/3 in this Q. Apple can judge the demand since November . I really doubt that suddenly at the end of January they would realize that they order:reserve too much production as much as 50%.
I could accept a 10/20% but that much seems strange
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Post by tuffett on Jan 29, 2018 6:53:25 GMT -8
Enjoying my AMZN gains (up another $15 today) while holding AAPL. I’ll look to increase my position (shares and LEAPs) on a bigger correction after earnings. Hopefully that won’t happen though. It nice to have a portfolio that’s not held hostage to the whims of a single manipulated stock.
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Post by CdnPhoto on Jan 29, 2018 7:18:58 GMT -8
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 29, 2018 7:37:42 GMT -8
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Post by CdnPhoto on Jan 29, 2018 7:43:41 GMT -8
I BTFD.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 29, 2018 8:06:23 GMT -8
Too bad the dividend hasn't been paid yet, I would have grabbed some this morning as well. Nice to see the floor set back in December held.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 29, 2018 8:09:07 GMT -8
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Post by lulli on Jan 29, 2018 8:18:24 GMT -8
Still have confidence in apple. From a logistic point of view reduction in production would have happen sooner then this. We already are 1/3 in this Q. Apple can judge the demand since November . I really doubt that suddenly at the end of January they would realize that they order:reserve too much production as much as 50%. I could accept a 10/20% but that much seems strange If you look at data such as that from mixpanel, the growth rate became less steep by about a factor of 2, as the fast ramp up in November/December (factor of 2 larger than for each of the 8 models) reached the equilibrium between supply and demand (maybe surprisingly) early. The growth rate of the X then became similar to that of the 8, which makes total sense to me because it changed from being determined by production to being determined by demand/customer preference. Since the X is more expensive, it would even not be too surprising if the growth rate of the X flattened out further. Those who absolutely wanted an X immediately got it, and those who now need a new phone consider the X in relationship to the other models, and some of them buy it. So Apple's strategy seems quite logical: Make the X in addition to the standard new model they would have done without the X, but make the X more expensive, sell it to first adopters for higher price, while others still buy the 8. Then move the tech downwards to the standard set of phones, providing it to everyone at the "usual" price later. As regards the production rate, they probably just thought it would be safer to order as many as the ramp of November/December would need if it kept going, and then they reduced orders when the extrapolation changed. The 50% is probably just people catching up to that. Reduction in the growth rate for X was already evident since supply/demand equilibrium during the last 2 weeks of December. Cutting the orders for the X supply chain now makes the production rate of the X the same as that of the 8. What journalists seem to permanently want to forget is that they are selling multiple models of phones, and if one of them sells more or less doesn't necessarily have an impact on total amount sold. People say "I need a new iPhone" and then they go buy it, at which point they choose the model.
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Post by mrentropy on Jan 29, 2018 8:43:30 GMT -8
Want to be infuriated? Netflix and Apple were roughly the same end of last year. Netflix has since added 100 points, or 50%. In roughly a month
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Post by carbonate24 on Jan 29, 2018 9:10:25 GMT -8
I took the opportunity to sell some at the money puts. I'll pocket the premium, and if the stock goes down or stays flat, I'll just own more shares at 170, which is fine with me.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 29, 2018 9:28:43 GMT -8
I’m all in again. Selling above 70 RSI and buying back around 30 has been a good strategy for a while. Let’s see if it works this time.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,655
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 29, 2018 9:54:01 GMT -8
I’m all in again. Selling above 70 RSI and buying back around 30 has been a good strategy for a while. Let’s see if it works this time. That keeps looking very tempting. But the first step for me would be getting away from the "all in" status. From stock charts.com, this morning when at 167.16 the RSI was 33.something. Now at 168.70 it's 35.72. Nice buy there.
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Post by tuffett on Jan 29, 2018 10:03:23 GMT -8
Pre-earnings selloff like this is indicative of continued bearish sentiment. I expect AAPL to hit the 200MA at this point, and hopefully hold.
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Post by incorrigible on Jan 29, 2018 10:25:22 GMT -8
Hopefully, Apple did too.
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Post by dreamRaj on Jan 29, 2018 10:27:31 GMT -8
I’m all in again. Selling above 70 RSI and buying back around 30 has been a good strategy for a while. Let’s see if it works this time. That keeps looking very tempting. But the first step for me would be getting away from the "all in" status. From stock charts.com, this morning when at 167.16 the RSI was 33.something. Now at 168.70 it's 35.72. Nice buy there. Just bought 500 more shares at 168.95. This beating that AAPL is taking seems too bad to be true.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 29, 2018 10:27:47 GMT -8
I’m all in again. Selling above 70 RSI and buying back around 30 has been a good strategy for a while. Let’s see if it works this time. That keeps looking very tempting. But the first step for me would be getting away from the "all in" status. From stock charts.com, this morning when at 167.16 the RSI was 33.something. Now at 168.70 it's 35.72. Nice buy there. I keep 50% of my core position invested and then trade the other 50% as I described. Yes, if it craters from here it will be painful. But I have a good feeling about this quarter, and the lowered expectations set us up for a positive surprise too. Also, I never buy short term options. Only LEAPS and my goal is to sell at least 6 months before expiration and roll over to the next year's LEAPS.
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Post by dreamRaj on Jan 29, 2018 10:31:39 GMT -8
Hopefully, Apple did too. According to many, there's a 'blackout period' during which companies can't buy back their own shares. Does anybody have correct knowledge on this one?
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Post by tuffett on Jan 29, 2018 11:07:06 GMT -8
Hopefully, Apple did too. I might be wrong, but I believe there’s a pre-earnings blackout period where Apple can’t buy back shares. Oops...didn’t see previous post
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Post by incorrigible on Jan 29, 2018 11:26:23 GMT -8
Hopefully, Apple did too. According to many, there's a 'blackout period' during which companies can't buy back their own shares. Does anybody have correct knowledge on this one? I thought it was 48 hours before earnings. It is in fact 48 hours after. My mistake. What I read is no buying 5 weeks prior. C'est la vie
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 29, 2018 12:38:27 GMT -8
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Post by dreamRaj on Jan 29, 2018 13:15:16 GMT -8
We're back to exactly where we were 3 months ago before the previous earnings. As if the good numbers of that ER and confirmation of repatriation never happened. Sad!
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ono
Member
compensation
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Post by ono on Jan 29, 2018 13:28:02 GMT -8
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Post by dreamRaj on Jan 29, 2018 13:43:03 GMT -8
A good word from Uncle Warren at this time would be nice.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 29, 2018 13:46:52 GMT -8
Uncle Warren is probably buying.
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Post by dreamRaj on Jan 29, 2018 13:52:34 GMT -8
Uncle Warren is probably buying. True. I just wish he'd say it out loud.
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Post by appledoc on Jan 29, 2018 14:43:14 GMT -8
The sky is falling. Apple is doomed.
I’m ready to add to my position before ER.
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