Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 30, 2018 3:58:57 GMT -8
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 30, 2018 4:09:50 GMT -8
Apple Annual Meeting
Not sure how many were able to get tickets but a group of us are planning to meet after the Apple Annual Meeting. If you are interested in joining us, PM me. If you are familiar with Cupertino and the area around Apple Park please feel free to suggest a restaurant.
For those who want to attend but do not have tickets, Apple has stated that only ticket holders will be allowed in. There has been no indication that any 'overflow' venue will be setup. I have a hard time envisioning Apple turning shareholders away. I certainly hope there is an overflow area as I only got 1 ticket and my better half will want to do something...
Finally, Apple has indicated that no Apple Park tours will be offered. Presumably one will be able to walk around it on the sidewalk...
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 30, 2018 4:30:02 GMT -8
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Post by dreamRaj on Jan 30, 2018 5:10:23 GMT -8
The sad part with the markets going red now is that we'll take a bigger beating after having been beaten down already while the others will take a small dip from their ATHs.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 30, 2018 6:31:53 GMT -8
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Post by artman1033 on Jan 30, 2018 6:54:48 GMT -8
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Post by tuffett on Jan 30, 2018 7:01:51 GMT -8
Provided the other phones sell well, I don’t see anything wrong with 20 million iPhone X sales this quarter. 40 million seems absurd and I don’t think Apple would have ever planned for that.
20M per quarter is still 2.5 phones per second and about $85B annual revenue, just for iPhone X.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 30, 2018 7:39:38 GMT -8
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Post by CdnPhoto on Jan 30, 2018 8:08:24 GMT -8
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Post by sponge on Jan 30, 2018 8:27:11 GMT -8
Well this selloff is the one I expected to see about two weeks ago. We always retest the high that was reached 5-6 months prior. So come July we could see 180 again.
I am not worried at all about earnings. Expect to see the stock at 195 by end of April
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,655
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 30, 2018 9:22:33 GMT -8
This is what Apple did with OS X too starting fairly early like 10.3 or so, focusing on speed and bug fixes one year, and then features the next. Some new features would get in, but that wasn't the main driver. I believe a search of apple insider from 12-15 years ago would find this. Without any background it sounds like a bad thing, but just like the normal flip-flop of the iPhones (i.e. 6 vs 6s, etc) Apple has found that this works well for them. And right now, with a lot of relatively little things getting through, along with some bigger issues, it makes sense for them to go this route on iOS too.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 30, 2018 9:45:31 GMT -8
With this much smoke, there's usually some fire.
I still think CYQ4 earnings will be very very good. But guidance for March quarter earnings could be less than "expectations." At this point, I think that's fairly priced in, but who knows.
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Post by hledgard on Jan 30, 2018 9:54:49 GMT -8
With this much smoke, there's usually some fire. I still think CYQ4 earnings will be very very good. But guidance for March quarter earnings could be less than "expectations." At this point, I think that's fairly priced in, but who knows. I agree with this, but think the earnings will be fine. Predict the stock rebounds some Friday.
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Post by macster on Jan 30, 2018 10:02:36 GMT -8
There were rumors in late 2016 that would release 3 new phones in the spring of 2017. This past year late 2017, the similar rumor was that would release 3 new phones in 2018. Perhaps this will be true that in the spring 2018 will release multiple oled iPhones and therefore the reason for the alleged iPhoneX production cutbacks. ??
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,432
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Post by chinacat on Jan 30, 2018 10:11:54 GMT -8
Fabulous Spouse and I just made our contributions to FQ2 revenue, an 8 Plus for her and a X for me. We are both excited.
However, I must say that the experience at the Verizon Wireless store, where we have done our last several upgrades (so we have a basis for comparison), was quite annoying. There was a relentless upsell for additional items (cases, screen protectors, additional storage, external battery packs, ...). In addition, they used to take the phones we were trading in and transferred their configurations to our new phones before we left the store; now we have to do that ourselves. I will be writing to Verizon Wireless.
So, I am unable to report on the experiences of the new phones, but hope to be able to do that as soon as we get them set up properly (fingers crossed).
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 30, 2018 10:15:05 GMT -8
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Post by carbonate24 on Jan 30, 2018 10:25:25 GMT -8
With this much smoke, there's usually some fire. I still think CYQ4 earnings will be very very good. But guidance for March quarter earnings could be less than "expectations." At this point, I think that's fairly priced in, but who knows. I agree with this, but think the earnings will be fine. Predict the stock rebounds some Friday. DED over at Apple Insider has a good rebuttal to the WSJ story and other "people familiar with the matter" who claim to know what is happening. WSJ jumps on iPhone X production cut story, add new fictions No one besides Apple will know the true story prior to Thursday at 4:30 EST, but I'm sticking with the likes of Katy Huberty and Above Avalon. There is certainly a lot of smoke out there, but there are also way too many unnamed people involved. Barely anyone is talking about the total number of iphones sold and predicted for the March Quarter......not to mention the growing user base, services, every other apple product, etc... Bottom line imo, These stories just seem like complete bullsh*t. Until Thursday, I'll continue to btfd each morning as the stock tanks on these stories.
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Post by macster on Jan 30, 2018 10:42:47 GMT -8
Apple 3.0 - Philip Elmer-DeWitt 25 mins · “It’s going to be one of the more entertaining quarters,” says the veteran Apple watcher, now at Loup Ventures. “Something doesn’t add up.” In a phone call the day of the Nikkei report, Gene Munster talked about what he thought was going on. Two things. One is natural concern about the supply chain and some of the chatter that happens in any cycle. [ 299 more words ] www.ped30.com/2018/01/30/repost-gene-munster-wild-apple-chatter/
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Post by macster on Jan 30, 2018 10:44:48 GMT -8
Neil Cybart has a theory. From a note sent to Cybart's Above Avalon subscribers Tuesday: Apple has a known problem at Foxconn where a third-party entity is collecting intel from Foxconn workers and then selling that information to those hungry for scoops and insights into Apple's product plans. My theory continues to be that KGI Securities (analyst Ming-Chi Kuo), in addition to a number of other financial shops, is buying this information. [ 153 more words ]
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Post by tuffett on Jan 30, 2018 11:04:57 GMT -8
Nice...DOJ and SEC investigation into batterygate. Bad news keeps piling on.
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Post by ericinaustin on Jan 30, 2018 11:10:31 GMT -8
That usually is a good rule of thumb with just about everything except markets and expectations in markets. I might regret it but about an hour ago I took the plunge and bought some February 9 call options because I think this selloff smells to high heaven .
Eric in Austin
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Post by tuffett on Jan 30, 2018 11:14:49 GMT -8
This is what Apple did with OS X too starting fairly early like 10.3 or so, focusing on speed and bug fixes one year, and then features the next. Some new features would get in, but that wasn't the main driver. I believe a search of apple insider from 12-15 years ago would find this. Without any background it sounds like a bad thing, but just like the normal flip-flop of the iPhones (i.e. 6 vs 6s, etc) Apple has found that this works well for them. And right now, with a lot of relatively little things getting through, along with some bigger issues, it makes sense for them to go this route on iOS too. I’m all for this, as stability and consistency is far more important than cramming in new features at this stage of the product lifecycle. The stability of iOS has taken a significant hit of late.
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Post by PikesPique on Jan 30, 2018 11:20:03 GMT -8
Just tried going to PED's Apple 3.0 site and got a message that his account was suspended from the site. Hmmm. One of the few guys posting rebuttals to the FUD and this happens. Conspiracy! :-)
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Post by alxyz on Jan 30, 2018 12:01:56 GMT -8
Must have fixed it I just had no problem.
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Post by dreamRaj on Jan 30, 2018 13:01:56 GMT -8
BTFD.
Jan 2019 175 and Jun 2018 200 calls.
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Post by dreamRaj on Jan 30, 2018 13:21:13 GMT -8
I have a feeling this is the bottom, until ER at least. I say that because today -- with all the additional FUD and markets diving -- should've been easy for the bears and manipulators to bury AAPL. But it held up well.
I see us at 170 on Thursday.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,432
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Post by chinacat on Jan 30, 2018 13:52:27 GMT -8
Wow, the FUD storm is getting truly amazing! I won’t even bother wth links anymore.
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Post by CdnPhoto on Jan 30, 2018 15:45:49 GMT -8
Just tried going to PED's Apple 3.0 site and got a message that his account was suspended from the site. Hmmm. One of the few guys posting rebuttals to the FUD and this happens. Conspiracy! :-) It's back up.
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ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 550
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Post by ono on Jan 30, 2018 16:00:53 GMT -8
These points calm me.
Let's go with median earnings Marketwatch (certainly not all have updated with the new tax rate, probably few the reduction in share count) $11.45 x say a 15.75 P/E = $180.
OK. In Q2 "only" 20 million iPhone X. It's still likely that Apple will sell near 60m iPhones in Q2. This should be "good enough" for a yoy revenue growth of 20% (!) for a mature $900b company. From a post over at ped30:
"Usage data from Mixpanel would indicate that since the start of Apple's fiscal Q2, the change in iPhone X usage as a % of total iPhone usage has represented 37% of the increase in usage for the latest generation of phones (X, 8+, and 8). If we use the $20M figure for iPhone X production, we would then expect total latest generation production in the quarter to equal roughly 54Million. That would not include any sales of newly built 7, 7+, 6S, 6S+ or SE units. So, Apple is looking at a large total iPhone number for FYQ2. Given the math and even accepting the worst case numbers from Nikkei, I am not sure what all the fuss is about. It looks like the 8 and 8+ are more popular than Apple initially anticipated. Ok, this is not a disaster."
Oh, ya. There is the whole repatriated cash problem. What to do? /s
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 30, 2018 17:32:51 GMT -8
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