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Post by carbonate24 on Feb 1, 2018 14:33:46 GMT -8
I have one statement for the analysts & journalists and their "50% production cut" incredibly wrong headlines. F*ck you. I hope you were short going into earnings. Couldn’t agree more.
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ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 550
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Post by ono on Feb 1, 2018 14:34:46 GMT -8
Did I hear Luca correctly? Net cash neutral? What the heck can they do with 165 BILLION dollars!!! I've the same question! Hopefully an analyst can get some color. Shannon tried.
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Post by dreamRaj on Feb 1, 2018 14:35:32 GMT -8
Luca's sexy voice is rocking the price now - up is good! LOL
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Post by gtrplyr on Feb 1, 2018 14:35:56 GMT -8
Well ... TESLA ain't gonna be cheap Replying to what happened to the 165 billion ....
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,432
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Post by chinacat on Feb 1, 2018 14:39:39 GMT -8
I am already seeing ”disappointing” in the headlines. Talk about “the curse of great expectations.”
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Feb 1, 2018 14:43:42 GMT -8
Yet AAPL is + $5.50
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Post by mrentropy on Feb 1, 2018 14:48:47 GMT -8
Leave it Sack-O-nutty to try and pry negative out of a positive:
"Look Neil, I realize you walked on the Moon and that's amazing, but how do feel that children knowing that it is not made of cheese going to affect them negatively?"
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Post by sponge on Feb 1, 2018 14:56:55 GMT -8
We closed above the 100 MA and now close to 50. A nice turn around. The bulls won after the CC. I like the report on Apple Watches and growth of other category. Can you imagine sales of the 3rd generation AirPods in 2019? An eps of 12 for FY18 with a p/e of 20 gives us 240 next January.
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Post by dreamRaj on Feb 1, 2018 15:02:50 GMT -8
Did I hear Luca correctly? Net cash neutral? What the heck can they do with 165 BILLION dollars!!! Correct me if I'm wrong but cash neutral means that the company's money coming in equals the money going out. This is the one thing from the call that has me most excited.
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Post by pauls on Feb 1, 2018 15:05:09 GMT -8
Did I hear Luca correctly? Net cash neutral? What the heck can they do with 165 BILLION dollars!!! Correct me if I'm wrong but cash neutral means that the company's money coming in equals the money going out. This is the one thing from the call that has me most excited. Tim weighed in at the end to say that what Luca meant was debt vs cash would be neutral.
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ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 550
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Post by ono on Feb 1, 2018 15:06:15 GMT -8
I'm not sure what I just heard about net cash, so did Tim say they'll essentially offset current debt with cash? Does this mean they're likely to return $163b of net cash via Capital Return Program?
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Post by mrentropy on Feb 1, 2018 15:11:01 GMT -8
I am already seeing ”disappointing” in the headlines. Talk about “the curse of great expectations.” Already started. CNBC's headline has frowny face Tim. Headline "Apple stock pops despite falling iPhone sales and weak guidance" I think they changed the headline after the stock started to rise.
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Post by Odd-Lot Richard on Feb 1, 2018 15:14:46 GMT -8
Probably shorts scrounging around the after hours market for shares. Feel the squeeze, shorts!
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Feb 1, 2018 15:16:49 GMT -8
ZD Net: iPhone sales disappoint despite all the hype
IBD: Apple Misses iPhone Unit Sales Target, But Beats On Earnings, Revenue
CNBC: Apple sold fewer iPhones than a year ago
CNN Money: Apple posts record $88 billion in sales, but there's iPhone trouble ahead
This stuff doesn't just write itself! 🙄
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Post by tuffett on Feb 1, 2018 15:18:35 GMT -8
Net cash neutral is potentially huge. Unlikely they’ll go the special dividend route. Plenty of other things they should do:
- Maintain annual buybacks of ~$40-50B - Ramp up (even more) investment into content - Bunp the dividend to $0.80 in April, and resume ~10% annual increases thereafter - Earmark ~$100B in reserve for buybacks with no end date, to be used opportunistically when the stock sells off. - Be more aggressive with acquisitions that are accretive to earnings (this will also reduce iPhone dependency)
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ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 550
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Post by ono on Feb 1, 2018 15:20:08 GMT -8
Sure, "weak guidance" which is still 13%-17% growth!? How, why, did expectation get to 19% - 25%.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,432
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Post by chinacat on Feb 1, 2018 15:45:22 GMT -8
Can anyone name another company that reported all-time record quarterly earnings and profits that were labeled "disappointing"?
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SomeJuan
Member
Taking a nap…
Posts: 321
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Post by SomeJuan on Feb 1, 2018 15:55:50 GMT -8
If you back out 5.5 million iPhones from last years results due to 14 weeks vs 13 this year, iPhones grew 8.5%. Services is on fire, as well as the “Other” basket of watches and Apple TV’s. China back on a solid growth track with Chinese New Year starting next week. With Tim and Luca stating the repatriation as a soon to be done deal, and the statement of cash neutral by both, i see a very sizable increase this April to .75¢, maybe even .79¢ per share going forward in dividends, possibly even .82¢ per share ( 20%, 25% or gulp 30% increases😍)
I pray the boys steer clear of large M&A like TSLA or DIS or NFLX, hell for 100 Billion you could buy the entire output of the entertainment industry, or better yet both F and GM
All in, it looks like we could very well see a 25% upside by Dec 31 if macroeconomics dont bite us.
Sure would like to know why the analyst’s had us growing 25% yoy for Q2 🤬🤬🤬🤬
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Post by pauls on Feb 1, 2018 16:35:35 GMT -8
Spending down to net zero cash is the answer to a very old question. I’m surprised it’s not the biggest takeaway in media quick takes. Best prepare for a deluge of helpful analysis of how 165B ought to be spent.
April call should be interesting. The scale of capital Apple can wield is under appreciated. I liked the 350B post tax deal announcement too.
It helps distract from the iPhone non-story.
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ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 550
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Post by ono on Feb 1, 2018 16:52:28 GMT -8
Spitballing here; Apple can buy 6x that of the biggest shareholder, Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway. And then keep buying about 2x of Buffet's holdings, per year. And here I thought Buffet's holdings (growing, penchant to buy) were a somewhat stabilizing force.
PS: How many billion of capital return remaining does Apple have approved; before April when they'll probably announce board's approval for a whole lot more?
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4aapl
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Posts: 3,655
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 1, 2018 17:20:16 GMT -8
Interesting...
Apple shipped roughly the same number of iPhones this year and last, but the ASP last year was $695, and this year $796.
But, gross margin stayed roughly flat, at 38.4% vs 38.5% last year.
I would have expected GM to increase with that dramatic bump up in ASP. It looks like Apple must be controlling that GM either by a much higher cost to make the X (and 8, with it's $50 bump up), or they are really offsetting some lower GM's on the lower priced phones.
I wonder how used/refurbished models work into the ASP?
AH closed at 173.40, up 5.62, with about 12.5M shares trading them (47.2 for the day, vs 34.7 around normal close). That print of 162.something just after 1:30 PT would have been nice in retrospect, giving a nice quick 11 point gain in the following 3.5 hrs.
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Post by Odd-Lot Richard on Feb 1, 2018 17:40:31 GMT -8
If you back out 5.5 million iPhones from last years results due to 14 weeks vs 13 this year, iPhones grew 8.5%. Dividing last year’s unit sales by 14 and this year’s by 13 gets me 5.592 per week last year and 5.947 per week this year. That’s about 6.35% sales rate growth. (I’m working from 78,290 thousands last year and 77,316 thousands this year.)
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,186
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 1, 2018 17:46:48 GMT -8
What the heck can they do with 165 BILLION dollars!!! 1) Send me and other stockholders a check, since it's our money; 2) Buy Disney Funny, all the horseshit blather in the financial media fails to mention that Apple almost came in with my prediction a few years ago; at $88.3 billion, Apple just missed the one billion dollars per day of revenue mark. Greatest quarter in history but it's disappointing because Apple didn't match Wall Street's totally made up numbers (er, excuse me, "models") on iPhone sales. Of course it didn't match the chicken entrails (er, channel check) numbers that foretold a 50% iPhone order cut either. Playing this game every 90 days gets old. I really wish Tim would come out again and really blast the channel check nonsense.
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ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 550
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Post by ono on Feb 1, 2018 19:03:50 GMT -8
"Playing this game every 90 days gets old. I really wish Tim would come out again and really blast the channel check nonsense."
Apple PR has a role. If the previous VP of HR was in charge, that individual would have been in the loop and seen the risk of the throttling, and would have had the CEO backing to force a heavy internal debate. Too many people see PR as an external function, rather than a key executive. Apple can be secretive, but lend a guiding narrative. (I miss Katie.)
Too many self inflicted errors.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,560
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Post by mark on Feb 1, 2018 19:28:04 GMT -8
Trailing 12 month earnings are 9.73/share. If AAPL gets up to a P/E of 20 this quarter, that puts it at 194.6 Previously Apple's market cap would hit $1T at 192.92 (using 5,183,585,xxx diluted shares from last quarter) Now, Apple's market cap will pass $1T at 193.89 (using 5,157,787,xxx diluted shares from this quarter) So....the next time AAPL hits a P/E of 20, this quarter, next, or whenever, Apple will likely have a market cap of $1T! Now let's see it! I dunno ... if they spend the extra $100B buying back stock then it'll 'never' hit $1T!
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,560
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Post by mark on Feb 1, 2018 19:32:37 GMT -8
We closed above the 100 MA and now close to 50. A nice turn around. The bulls won after the CC. I like the report on Apple Watches and growth of other category. Can you imagine sales of the 3rd generation AirPods in 2019? An eps of 12 for FY18 with a p/e of 20 gives us 240 next January. How do you figure? I see eps for FY18 at around $10.
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Post by tuffett on Feb 1, 2018 20:38:32 GMT -8
We closed above the 100 MA and now close to 50. A nice turn around. The bulls won after the CC. I like the report on Apple Watches and growth of other category. Can you imagine sales of the 3rd generation AirPods in 2019? An eps of 12 for FY18 with a p/e of 20 gives us 240 next January. How do you figure? I see eps for FY18 at around $10. They just reported $3.89. Q2, Q3 and Q4 2017 were a combined $5.59. Assuming zero growth, that gets us to $9.48. But Apple has bought back a lot of stock since then, and already guided for significant revenue growth in Q2 which will in all likelihood carry over to the last two quarters as well. And don't forget, they guided to 15% tax rate, and confirmed this level for the rest of the fiscal year. 2018 EPS should be well above $11 and could exceed $12.
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