Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Feb 1, 2018 4:04:36 GMT -8
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Post by dmiller on Feb 1, 2018 5:18:13 GMT -8
The Motley Fool article on Yahoo, and I quote:
“Earlier this month, the Mac maker's market cap topped $900 billion, but its share price has since dipped on concerns about iPhone X sales. The company said recently that it would cut the production targets on the new high-end smartphone by half.”
But wait a minute: look again?
“The company said recently that it would cut the production targets on the new high-end smartphone by half.”
What?
“The company said”...?
No. They didn’t. The company won’t say anything until the earnings call this afternoon.
This is what passes for journalism.
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Post by michelc on Feb 1, 2018 6:05:01 GMT -8
Well this is the kind of day I hate. One one hand I know that q1 will be more then good (I see 4.01 eps) and that q2 will end up with a descent 10ish % yoy increase on the top line.
On the other hand the buzz will anyway kill the share tonight and tomorrow.
So I have sold half of my leaps as a conservative move the rest I can tolerate the swing.
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Post by carbonate24 on Feb 1, 2018 6:08:35 GMT -8
The Motley Fool article on Yahoo, and I quote: “Earlier this month, the Mac maker's market cap topped $900 billion, but its share price has since dipped on concerns about iPhone X sales. The company said recently that it would cut the production targets on the new high-end smartphone by half.” But wait a minute: look again? “The company said recently that it would cut the production targets on the new high-end smartphone by half.” What? “The company said”...? No. They didn’t. The company won’t say anything until the earnings call this afternoon. This is what passes for journalism. Agreed. Those types of articles (with complete false information in them) really irritate me. I looked for an email address for the author, but I couldn't find one. So I wrote in the general "contact us" form for Motley Fool. I'm not sure it will make a difference, but I pointed out that the author was just plain wrong and asked for a correction. I doubt the big money managers get their info from the Motley fool, but before you know it, that article will get shared and passed around as actual news....which could have a similar effect as some unnamed source from some staff writers at Nikkei.
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Post by dmiller on Feb 1, 2018 6:27:35 GMT -8
They also won’t announce anything at all like what this article says. And never have. They’ve NEVER announced production targets of any kind; this all comes from external projections, guesses, rumors.
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Post by michelc on Feb 1, 2018 6:30:51 GMT -8
When I was in college ( finance) one teacher told us we should always invest only base on financial info. Years and years later I know that now perception is more important then financial specially in tech
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Post by carbonate24 on Feb 1, 2018 7:12:27 GMT -8
Perhaps I'm overly (or stubbornly) optimistic, but despite all of the negative headlines about unit sales circulating, I think we will not only see a blowout Q1 but also see reasonably positive guidance for Q2. I'm basing this opinion largely on the weak dollar, which doesn't get enough attention when considering Apple's earnings. There is an even bigger YOY difference in dollar strength this current quarter than there was in Q4 or Q1. Throw in higher ASP's for iphones, a larger installed base contributing to services, and an adequately positive performance from Apple's other segments, and it all adds up to good numbers.
Happy Earnings Day and cheers to all the longs out there!
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Feb 1, 2018 7:17:57 GMT -8
Agree Carbonate.
Indeed, it's difficult to imagine RED after earnings given that Armageddon seems to be priced in already.
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Post by zzmac on Feb 1, 2018 7:45:10 GMT -8
Perhaps I'm overly (or stubbornly) optimistic, but despite all of the negative headlines about unit sales circulating, I think we will not only see a blowout Q1 but also see reasonably positive guidance for Q2. I'm basing this opinion largely on the weak dollar, which doesn't get enough attention when considering Apple's earnings. There is an even bigger YOY difference in dollar strength this current quarter than there was in Q4 or Q1. Throw in higher ASP's for iphones, a larger installed base contributing to services, and an adequately positive performance from Apple's other segments, and it all adds up to good numbers. Happy Earnings Day and cheers to all the longs out there! I like the way you think!
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Post by dmiller on Feb 1, 2018 7:47:32 GMT -8
I also like the sound of that. If so I’m going to be very happy around dinner time.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Feb 1, 2018 7:50:08 GMT -8
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Post by Luckychoices on Feb 1, 2018 8:00:17 GMT -8
With regards to all the Apple FUD that's popped up over the last two weeks, I just saw a *perfect*, two sentence comment on an Apple-related article at Seeking Alpha, by someone with a username of flyingnorth:
The news on the IPhone X wasn't widely reported. It was widely repeated.
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Post by socal Film Composer on Feb 1, 2018 8:29:53 GMT -8
great point on the weak dollar this can really move the needle either way- we've had dollar headwinds for the past 8 quarters or so, so a shift here towards a weaker dollar, both in terms of this q, and guidance could be a factor. Good luck to all of us longs!
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benoir
fire starter
*
Posts: 1,319
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Post by benoir on Feb 1, 2018 8:37:05 GMT -8
When I was in college ( finance) one teacher told us we should always invest only base on financial info. Years and years later I know that now perception is more important then financial specially in tech I think you are right for the short and medium term but financials will overrule perception in the long term ....for all, expect AMZN which has perception staying power. Edit.... you probably need to gauge perception to assess entry and exit points for long term investing.
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Post by michelc on Feb 1, 2018 8:43:35 GMT -8
When I was in college ( finance) one teacher told us we should always invest only base on financial info. Years and years later I know that now perception is more important then financial specially in tech I think you are right for the short and medium term but financials will overrule perception in the long term ....for all, expect AMZN which has perception staying power. Agree with you but in tech perception can stay the main focus for years( Amazon ) or influence for a long time (apple) For years apple have been deferring taxes , that handicap the earnings . Now Microsoft have to take a charge and the stock is it. Then next year wow they came back up!!! Apple will probably won’t have to take a charge will they get rewarded for having been .... I doubt it
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,432
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Post by chinacat on Feb 1, 2018 9:05:18 GMT -8
I am still optimistic, but I really didn’t think that the Big Boys would get AAPL below 170 before earnings. A $15 bump just to get back to the ATH certainly puts the pressure on guidance.
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Post by sponge on Feb 1, 2018 9:22:31 GMT -8
Here is how I see it. The damage from 180 will take time to heal. The earnings will be the first anti biotic. So I see us closing around 168 today, jumping to 178 tomorrow before finishing just under 175. We may visit 180 again the following week, but I am not holding my breath given the budget drama.
If we finish the quarter between 185-195, which will confirm that we are on track for a good year.
The only numbers that count are quarterly earnings. Everything else is just noise.
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Post by ericinaustin on Feb 1, 2018 10:20:11 GMT -8
Perception is only more important than financial info in the short run perhaps a quarter or so. The financials win out in the long run. I still think of aapl as a very heavy train with lots of momentum. Very hard to slow it down in next year or so.
Eric in Austin.
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Post by dreamRaj on Feb 1, 2018 11:46:35 GMT -8
Since both AMZN and GOOG have had a great run to their ATHs, there is a chance that people might (pump and) dump them today after ER and get into AAPL. Just sayin...
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Post by wildguess on Feb 1, 2018 11:47:49 GMT -8
Apple Watch sales might be a big upside surprise. I visit my neighborhood Apple store a couple times week and have noticed they have been consistently busy selling watches. It seems everywhere I look that people are wearing them. Except the teens and twenty somethings.
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SomeJuan
Member
Taking a nap…
Posts: 321
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Post by SomeJuan on Feb 1, 2018 12:14:44 GMT -8
A question, as im confused about forward guidance, is the board to believe AAPL is going to grow revenues by 25% yoy for q2 to 65 billion, in what is typically their worst QTR? AAPL is “just” growing by 15% yoy if we hit 87 billion for Q1!
Hmmm
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Post by macglenn on Feb 1, 2018 12:40:05 GMT -8
Quite a few bailing on AMZN before their report
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Post by Apple II+ on Feb 1, 2018 12:41:52 GMT -8
My AirPods were just delivered. Wow, these are great! I hope Apple keeps delivering this afternoon!
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Post by tuffett on Feb 1, 2018 12:57:55 GMT -8
A question, as im confused about forward guidance, is the board to believe AAPL is going to grow revenues by 25% yoy for q2 to 65 billion, in what is typically their worst QTR? AAPL is “just” growing by 15% yoy if we hit 87 billion for Q1! Hmmm FQ2 is their second best quarter, not worst.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Feb 1, 2018 13:04:02 GMT -8
AMZN up 4% after hours.
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SomeJuan
Member
Taking a nap…
Posts: 321
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Post by SomeJuan on Feb 1, 2018 13:09:35 GMT -8
A question, as im confused about forward guidance, is the board to believe AAPL is going to grow revenues by 25% yoy for q2 to 65 billion, in what is typically their worst QTR? AAPL is “just” growing by 15% yoy if we hit 87 billion for Q1! Hmmm FQ2 is their second best quarter, not worst. Yes, i got my QTR’s confused, but 25% growth expectations yoy for Q2, i still cannot see that, hope I am wrong 😏
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Feb 1, 2018 13:13:53 GMT -8
And GOOGL down 4%.
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Post by dreamRaj on Feb 1, 2018 13:21:17 GMT -8
Well, now that GOOG is down and AMZN's results were not all that (as if they've ever been), investors have one great option.
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Post by dreamRaj on Feb 1, 2018 13:25:55 GMT -8
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Post by artman1033 on Feb 1, 2018 13:32:14 GMT -8
Revenue and EPS Hit New All-Time Records Active Installed Base of Devices Reaches 1.3 Billion in January Cupertino, California — February 1, 2018 — Apple today announced financial results for its fiscal 2018 first quarter ended December 30, 2017. The Company posted quarterly revenue of $88.3 billion, an increase of 13 percent from the year-ago quarter and an all-time record, and quarterly earnings per diluted share of $3.89, up 16 percent, also an all-time record. International sales accounted for 65 percent of the quarter’s revenue. “We’re thrilled to report the biggest quarter in Apple’s history, with broad-based growth that included the highest revenue ever from a new iPhone lineup. iPhone X surpassed our expectations and has been our top-selling iPhone every week since it shipped in November,” said Tim Cook, Apple’s CEO. “We’ve also achieved a significant milestone with our active installed base of devices reaching 1.3 billion in January. That’s an increase of 30 percent in just two years, which is a testament to the popularity of our products and the loyalty and satisfaction of our customers.” “Thanks to great operational and business performance, we achieved all-time record profitability during the quarter, with EPS up 16 percent,” said Luca Maestri, Apple’s CFO. “Cash flow from operations was very strong at $28.3 billion, and we returned $14.5 billion to investors through our capital return program.” Apple is providing the following guidance for its fiscal 2018 second quarter: revenue between $60 billion and $62 billion gross margin between 38 percent and 38.5 percent operating expenses between $7.6 billion and $7.7 billion other income/(expense) of $300 million tax rate of approximately 15 percent Apple’s board of directors has declared a cash dividend of $0.63 per share of the Company’s common stock. The dividend is payable on February 15, 2018 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on February 12, 2018. www.apple.com/newsroom/2018/02/apple-reports-first-quarter-results/
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