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Post by dreamRaj on Feb 12, 2018 7:47:46 GMT -8
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Post by michelc on Feb 12, 2018 8:12:10 GMT -8
Good to see some Green!!! That article by ti:dr is a most read (even if part of it is realllly technical)
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Post by dreamRaj on Feb 12, 2018 8:23:31 GMT -8
Good to see some Green!!! That article by ti:dr is a most read (even if part of it is realllly technical) Yep. I especially got excited when I saw the comparison to the KEFs. I have the 5.1 KEF 3000 series since over a decade now. Awesome speakers. Just saw AAPL hit the new HOD at 161.44
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Post by dreamRaj on Feb 12, 2018 8:44:09 GMT -8
Luckychoices had a very good post in the weekend thread. In case you missed it, here it is: I saw the enclosed post below the article from the included link. I thought the commenter gave a *great* explanation of why the recent Apple Earnings Report was incorrectly interpreted by many analysts and also by many Apple share holders/traders/naysayers. I particularly like the basket player example he used to illustrate his point. One focused only upon the total number of iPhones sold during the quarter could be disappointed...but it's the revenue, stupid. When Apple guides between $84 billion and $87 billion, $88.2 billion is not a disappointment in anyone's world. Apple: Get Ready To Buy Back SharesApplocrat Comments (1127) |+ Follow |Send Message |
No. The iPhone "stagnation" is a false narrative. I understand its pervasive, oft-repeated but repeating something doesn't make it true. I can say I CAN FLY all i like, i still wouldn't leap off a building.
Its false in two ways at least. Which is all i have time for. I will write up the one that to my knowledge is least appreciated first.
The ASP of iPhone went up a hundred dollars over last year. Wall street was expecting an ASP in the 750s not the 790s so what does this mean? It means they sold MANY MORE X's than imagined.
But don't check out on me yet because this is the part where it gets REALLY interesting. You know those models the analysts use? Well here is how they are built. They decide how much revenue a segment will generate then figure the average selling price then divide the revenue by the ASP to generate units sold. Absorb that. Really. The only reason Apple was EXPECTED TO SELL 80 million phones is because the analysts assumed a much lower selling price. Proof, well the proof is in the math. If you want more, consider the redoubtable Horace Deidu. He got Apple's revenue on the nose. 88.2999 billion vs 88.3 billion reported. However his estimate, was for 86.5 million iPhones BECAUSE he assumed a much lower ASP.
So the phone number is derivative of the revenue numbers and Apple annihilated the ASP to the upside.
Its exactly as if you were calculating how many games it would take a basketball player to score 30,000 points and you decided it would take them 1250 games because they would average 25, but then they were even better than you imagined and they averaged 30; so it only took 1000 games. Now imagine if on their 1001st game you talked about what a DISAPPOINTMENT their play was because they had taken too few games! This is exactly what happened.
Notice the point isn't just that the average was higher and thats GOOD the point is more significant still. Its that the total number of iPhones or games is derived FROM the average. In order to understand these numbers and whether they constitute a miss we need to understand not just what they are, but HOW they are created. And the ASP number the one that Apple smashed is PRIMARY and the phone sales are derived from it. 09 Feb 2018, 01:45 PM Report AbuseTo which I had replied: Luckychoices - Thanks for the above post. That is such a proper analysis of what really is important. I find it hard to believe that most analysts are so dumb that they don't know this. It's clearly their choice to instead manipulate simply because they can knowing that their company/clientele will profit from it. The same bastards will come out with positive words when AAPL rises over 175 again. What's sad is none of these analysts have been, or will be, held accountable for playing these games.
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Post by artman1033 on Feb 12, 2018 9:25:30 GMT -8
Good to see some Green!!! That article by ti:dr is a most read (even if part of it is realllly technical) IMHO: AAPL WAS down last week prior to dividend. AAPL is up this week because the dividend is due. the bastards............
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Post by appledoc on Feb 12, 2018 9:32:28 GMT -8
AAPL leading. Look for SPY ~274 to complete the retrace.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,655
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 12, 2018 9:47:39 GMT -8
I saw the enclosed... Apple: Get Ready To Buy Back SharesApplocrat Comments (1127) |+ Follow |Send Message |
... The only reason Apple was EXPECTED TO SELL 80 million phones is because the analysts assumed a much lower selling price. Proof, well the proof is in the math. If you want more, consider the redoubtable Horace Deidu. He got Apple's revenue on the nose. 88.2999 billion vs 88.3 billion reported. However his estimate, was for 86.5 million iPhones BECAUSE he assumed a much lower ASP.
So the phone number is derivative of the revenue numbers and Apple annihilated the ASP to the upside.
One of my bosses at Apple found it helpful to try to defend both sides of things, and so sometimes would take the devil's advocate side. In that case, it was things like putting buttons and options all over the place, unlike the limited UI that we used building the interface for software update server. On iPhone numbers, both revenue and units, it's easy to get up in arms with some analysts, pointing out that Apple made more money and with the stock we're all about making money. While true, the long term picture is that we need the units too, unless we're changing our plan to follow the high end supercar model of making great revenue per car, while keeping supply so low as to keep up demand at that price. The problem is that we don't have all the details...and no one does including Apple. They/we don't know if Apple managed to ship the X a couple weeks earlier, with an extra 10M units, if they would all sell. Things are not at steady state, so we don't know with full certainty how things will do. Likewise with the analysts, we don't know for certain that they produced their iPhone unit numbers from the revenue. They should have, if using Apple's revenue guidance. But I think we all feel there's things that the analysts at large should have done over the years with respect to Apple. In the long game, the units matter, both directly (sales) and indirectly (services, user base). Things do point to everything being fine, but it's good to keep an eye on things that might not be fine, since at some point it's likely that they won't be.
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Post by dreamRaj on Feb 12, 2018 9:47:51 GMT -8
Up +6.45
New HOD at 162.86
Hopefully, sense will start creeping in bringing back the investors who fled.
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Post by Ken on Feb 12, 2018 10:18:55 GMT -8
When FedEx guy delivered my HomePod early Friday afternoon, he asked me what the package was. Said he had already delivered thirty of them. He didn’t seem to know about HomePod and was shocked how many he had delivered.
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ono
Member
compensation
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Post by ono on Feb 12, 2018 11:11:32 GMT -8
When FedEx guy delivered my HomePod early Friday afternoon, he asked me what the package was. Said he had already delivered thirty of them. He didn’t seem to know about HomePod and was shocked how many he had delivered. Wow! Do you live in Cupertino?
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Post by Ken on Feb 12, 2018 11:50:19 GMT -8
When FedEx guy delivered my HomePod early Friday afternoon, he asked me what the package was. Said he had already delivered thirty of them. He didn’t seem to know about HomePod and was shocked how many he had delivered. Wow! Do you live in Cupertino? Winston-Salem, NC
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Post by artman1033 on Feb 12, 2018 13:17:17 GMT -8
Volume 60,634,426 Avg. Volume 32,293,132
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Post by pauls on Feb 12, 2018 14:28:52 GMT -8
When FedEx guy delivered my HomePod early Friday afternoon, he asked me what the package was. Said he had already delivered thirty of them. He didn’t seem to know about HomePod and was shocked how many he had delivered. Mine said, “Looks like someone’s getting a HomePod!” Of course, he had an AirPod in one ear.
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Post by macster on Feb 12, 2018 18:24:43 GMT -8
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