Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Feb 23, 2018 3:39:30 GMT -8
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Post by osx10 on Feb 23, 2018 6:12:19 GMT -8
Surprised that the lower than expected forward guidance from OLED hasn't been used as another reason to bash Apple and the "failure" of the iphone X.
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Post by CdnPhoto on Feb 23, 2018 6:29:28 GMT -8
Surprised that the lower than expected forward guidance from OLED hasn't been used as another reason to bash Apple and the "failure" of the iphone X. You have OLED too? I was surprised they raised their dividend and gave a lower guidance.
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Post by tuffett on Feb 23, 2018 7:11:03 GMT -8
I post in the Braeburn group as DrBob. I just posted the following FWIW: While higher ASPs certainly help profitability, I am not sure that I agree that they are strategically the best move. Kirk’s iPhone unit data seems to indicate that the S-curve for the adoption of mobile phones is past its upper inflection point. I realize that I am inferring total mobile phones from the iPhone data, but iPhone share has not changed that dramatically over the past 5 years. In addition and to make matters worse, China Mobile 4G subscribers have had their fastest growth (300 million to 700 million) during the years when iPhone units were essentially flat. I have nothing against profits or carefully managed growth, but I think Apple is facing a challenge that is different from anything they have faced since 2001. I am firm believer in the logistic curve. Any system that grows (especially if it grows exponentially) eventually reaches a point where resources are exhausted and the growth slows and stops. Whether it is slime molds, the rate of patents for steam locomotives, or mobile phones, this pattern is an inherent part of any growing system. For Apple to continue to grow, it must begin a new logistic curve. This is exactly what it did in 2001 with the iPod. In my view, it was the iPod that is responsible for where we are now, the iPhone was a fortunate extension of the functionality. So what is the new curve and how should Apple prepare for it? Maybe it is AR as Tim seems to think, maybe it is the Apple car or wearables. Maybe something we haven’t even heard of, but whatever it is, Apple’s strategic plan should be preparing for it. In my opinion, the best way to prepare for it is to expand the customer base as broadly and as quickly as possible. One of the last times that we went through this kind of technological change was the introduction of the automobile. Henry Ford was in a similar position to Apple. He was a master of operations. He relentlessly refined the production process to lower the cost of production. But then he did something that was unheard of. Every dollar that he reduced the cost of building a car lowered the price to the consumer. The price of a Model T went from $850 to $300. Lowering the price of iPhones dramatically to bring more people into the ecosystem strengthens the ability to move to the next big thing, and Apple must succeed with a next big thing. We have seen the potential of services to grow and endure economic fluctuations. I think that in the long term, reducing ASP to aggressively expand the number of Apple users is not only wise, it is essential. Great post and I agree with a lot of it. I do think Apple should slowly follow this route, but as long as the install base is growing double digits or high single digits there’s no rush. It’s quite clear that’s the metric Apple cares about and for good reason. Once growth in install base slows or stops, they should definitely pull the price lever to keep it increasing.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Feb 23, 2018 7:36:27 GMT -8
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Post by dreamRaj on Feb 23, 2018 10:35:24 GMT -8
175 will be a major resistance. Next week will be like a test in that either we break past 175 or remain in the 170-175 range for a long time.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,432
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Post by chinacat on Feb 23, 2018 11:21:26 GMT -8
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Feb 23, 2018 12:15:58 GMT -8
Well AAPL is over $175. Can it hold through the close?
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Post by CdnPhoto on Feb 23, 2018 12:26:52 GMT -8
The 3:00 move went in our favour this time.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Feb 23, 2018 13:56:50 GMT -8
Nice close. Unfortunately with another pesky gap.
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Post by rickag on Feb 23, 2018 15:48:58 GMT -8
AAPL is #11 on the list they gave, wish it was #1,000,000.
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