Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Feb 27, 2018 3:46:01 GMT -8
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Post by carbonate24 on Feb 27, 2018 5:55:17 GMT -8
The investopedia article reminds me of Seinfeld, a (great) show about nothing, except this article wasn't funny. It seems to fall into the classic example of FUD....sprinkle around some facts and then make claims of weak iphone demand. Oh, and use the word "slash" a bunch of times when talking about estimates, even if it is just analysts correcting their own earlier estimates. Oh well. Will we see a new ATH today?
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Feb 27, 2018 7:14:51 GMT -8
Looks like AAPL is going for an ATH.
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Post by michelc on Feb 27, 2018 7:24:11 GMT -8
180$ broke can we hold?
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Post by artman1033 on Feb 27, 2018 7:29:15 GMT -8
AAPL ALL TIME HIGH! $180.48 All Time Highest TODAY intraday
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,432
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Post by chinacat on Feb 27, 2018 8:08:38 GMT -8
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Feb 27, 2018 10:28:58 GMT -8
AAPL's performance this afternoon is quite strong relative to the rest of the market.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Feb 27, 2018 13:45:54 GMT -8
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Post by Luckychoices on Feb 27, 2018 14:37:53 GMT -8
I'm posting a link to an article on Seeking Alpha from 02/22/18 titled, "Slowly But Surely, Apple Faces A Steeper Climb" which touts a story that we've all read before: "...Apple is losing ground...", "...it’s time for Apple to reinvent itself...", yada yada. I'm also including, what I considered, a particularly thoughtful and detailed comment from an SA commenter named Wiseyou in which he responds to, and counters, the author's article. Slowly But Surely, Apple Faces A Steeper ClimbSummary
Last quarter’s smartphone sales data points to a market-wide slowdown.
The next era of the smartphone industry will reward operating system proliferation...
... but Apple is losing ground on that front as well.================================ Comment from Wiseyou: Wiseyou Comments (688) |Following |Send Message | What will it take to get people to stop saying such nonsense, like Apple needs to reinvent itself? Apple just had the most successful quarter in history, making $88 billion in revenues, more than any other company ever [http://bit.ly/2sW2p6P]. Apple dominates in every product category that it competes in, including 51% of revenues and nearly 90% of profits of the world smartphone market, most of the profits in the laptop and desktop computer market, more watch revenues than Switzerland, more tablet revenues than all the other manufactures combined, and over 80% of wireless earphone sales.
Over 1.3 billion active iOS devices are being used around the world, each likely to use more services such as iCloud, Apple Pay, and Music. In the past year, Apple Music subscriptions have grown at a blistering pace, anticipated to double from 30 million to over 60 million subscribers this year, projected to exceed the market leader Spotify by this summer, particularly with the launch of the HomePod. Note that even at 60 million, the number of subscriptions is still less that 5% of 1.3 billion iOS devices. There is substantial room for growth.
Last year, Apple’s China business grew by 12.1% in a shrinking smartphone market and against intense competition by Huawei, Vivo, Oppo, and Xiaomi selling much cheaper devices. Apple is now in 4th place in China’s smartphone market, a market that is 4 times larger than the U.S. If Apple continues to beat Chinese manufacturers at their own game in their home territory, growth opportunities are enormous. If you look carefully at the China sales, Apple is gaining sales not only in iPhones but Mac, iPads, Watches, and AirPods. Apple just set up its iCloud services in China, a move that everybody attacked Apple for because the Chinese government may have access to the servers. However, Apple continues to have end-to-end encryption with the essential key remaining in the device. The move to local servers portends a large increase the profitability of service in China from 320+ million active iOS users in China, as large as the entire U.S. population. There is also ample room for growth.
Apple’s business in India doubled in 2017 Y0Y, in part because Apple is now manufacturing iPhone SE’s in India. Many people complain that Apple’s market share is too small at 3-4%. This is because most Apple devices in India were bought outside of India due to the high 20% custom duties that India imposes on device made outside India. Anybody who has travelled in India can tell you that a much greater percentage of Indians carry iPhones. With a population of 1.3 billion, India has the potential to be an other China-sized market for Apple. If Apple starts manufacture other Apple models to India, sales in India will more than double every year. For example, the 6S and 7/7+ are perfectly good smartphones that are as good or better than most premium Android smartphones. Sales of these phones in India will not cannibalize sales elsewhere.
The author admits that “Apple is the only smartphone maker making any real money...” He then pointed out that Apple sold only 73.2 million units in Q1’18 compared to 77 million iPhones in the Apple’s Q1’17, pointing out that “Apple’s market share remained level at 17.9%.” Please note that the 73.2 million is Apple’s number (which is reliable) and market share number from Gartner is not as reliable. Other sources tell a very different story. For example, Morgan Stanley says that Apple iPhone shipments grew 12% in China in CY17Q4 (Q/Q) while Android shipment declined 17% [http://bit.ly/2sQKLRB].
The author presents data (presumably from Gartner) to support his claim that Apple is losing market share. I found some errors in his market share calucations So, I recalculated them, using his numbers of smartphones sold by each company to calculate market share during the Christmas quarter of 2017 and 2018. From my calculations, Apple had a 17.2% market share during the Christmas quarter of 2017 (Q1’17) and an 18.05% market share during FQ’17. A Q/Q comparison suggest that Apple’s unit numbers of Q1’18 fell by 5.02% from Q1’17. However, as many people have pointed out, that comparison is flawed by Q1’17 has one more week than Q1’18. Also, the drop fall in unit sales Q/Q should be viewed in the context of an overall general decline in worldwide smartphone sales.
Finally, critics of Apple should not be able to have their cake and eat it, too. Many articles critical of Apple begin, like this one does, with the assertion that a majority of Apple revenues come from iPhone sales (about 64%). Then they ignore all the other successful products that Apple has and focus on some minor deficiency (such as a decline in iPhone unit sales share), even though Apple has clear revenue share dominance, to claim that Apple needs to reinvent itself. Please, Apple has reinvented itself in the past year.
First, they are selling older iPhone models (iPhone SE, 6S, 7, 7+) and refurbished models that are price-competitive with premier android smartphones offered by other manufacturers, attracting android users to iOS and slowing the leak of iOS to android.
Second, they have revamped and upgraded their Macs and iPads, reversing longstanding declines of sales of both categories of devices.
Third, they have introduced three new products since 2016, i.e. Airpod, Watch, and HomePod. Airpod and Watch totally dominate the wireless earphone and smart watch markets.
HomePod was just released two weeks ago and already has a 3% market share. Isn’t this what the critics want Apple to do?
23 Feb 2018, 02:16 PM
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