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Post by podboy on Dec 5, 2012 19:56:20 GMT -8
Hey man we're all in this together that is what makes this place so great. It's no problem you weren't being hard on me, I just wanted to point out that in May Zaky said it was a buy at 536 and if it ever hit 506 he said it was a better buy than the lows in 2008. Just trying to point out the similarities to the situation that we are in today.
I appreciate everyone's input here, I'm truly grateful for finding this place cause I'm new to investing, and it's a tremendous resource. Just please bear with me for a while I'm a novice.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 5, 2012 19:59:50 GMT -8
I asked this earlier and yesterday - no one responded and I can't seem to find any information on it. Is the Judge Koh decision tomorrow? Is the date still the same or has it been moved? Anyone know? Yes, my understanding is that tomorrow, Judge Koh will consider Sammy's appeal and request for a mistrial based on what has come out of Hogan's (fat) mouth post-trial. I don't expect anything definitive tomorrow, but she may grant a motion that opens the door wider for Sammy.
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 5, 2012 20:00:30 GMT -8
Travis just tweeted this out: "12/05/12 (pm) In no way can options slow pure liquidation. Options are no match for anomalies or overwhelming buying or selling. Today you had tax selling part deux as AAPL is still up 33% YTD, mixed with margin calls and the street finally discovering Apple will keep its cash in the stock. I am leaving the 98% put range be for transparency. I’m not sure if AAPL will close above it or not. If you were interested in starting a Cr put spread, I’d look to the $500 or $510 strike. — In my opinion there shouldn’t be any angst if you have an investment in AAPL. The reason is, you know why the stock is selling off. It’s market mechanics, not an actual Apple concern. Once the mechanical selling is done, the stock will rebound to a somewhat fair market value."
98% Probability Range $545 - $600
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Post by Deleted on Dec 5, 2012 20:03:55 GMT -8
I appreciate everyone's input here, I'm truly grateful for finding this place cause I'm new to investing, and it's a tremendous resource. Just please bear with me for a while I'm a novice. Welcome. And you're doing great. You have just one fewer exalt that I do and I've been around, you know? ;D
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Post by brazilnuts on Dec 5, 2012 20:13:23 GMT -8
Took a while to find our new home HOORAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! And welcome home!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Thank you Lovemyipad for the warm welcome
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Dec 5, 2012 20:13:35 GMT -8
Today's action is sheer lunacy. I have no reason, none, to believe Apple will not sell 49 million iPhones this quarter. Everything else follows......
The quarter after.....even better on a YOY comparison.
iPad mini? What possible bad news is there about the sales of this device?
Is Wall Street trying to "shake down" apple for the cash....? I mean....really!
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Post by Deleted on Dec 5, 2012 20:14:44 GMT -8
Steve Milunovich will be on CNBC at 9am PST to talk about Apple. Anyone have a take on this guy?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 5, 2012 20:16:01 GMT -8
Today's action is sheer lunacy. I have no reason, none, to believe Apple will not sell 49 million iPhones this quarter. Everything else follows...... The quarter after.....even better on a YOY comparison. iPad mini? What possible bad news is there about the sales of this device? Is Wall Street trying to "shake down" apple for the cash....? I mean....really! Sheer lunacy is an understatement. Welcome BZ.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Dec 5, 2012 20:19:26 GMT -8
I expect, no...demand...the houses get in the game tomorrow morning, reinforce their belief in the stock, and explain why? In spades......
Lunacy must be opposed.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 5, 2012 20:23:47 GMT -8
Welcome. And you're doing great. You have just one fewer exalt that I do and I've been around, you know? ;D hells bells, I took a hit on the karma today, geeez.
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 5, 2012 20:24:12 GMT -8
Re: Steve Milunovich - his note to investors was part of the problem this week: "“We are bullish on the stock, but […] significant P/E expansion seems unlikely,†UBS’ Steven Milunovich writes in a note Tuesday. Apple currently trades at less than 12 times expected earnings for the Sept. 2013 fiscal year, but anyone expecting an increase may be disappointed."
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Post by brazilnuts on Dec 5, 2012 20:27:33 GMT -8
Took a while to find our new home I was about to post photos of Ms. Hathaway ( short hair) from Les Mis to lure you out. Morning updates please....take me back to earlier days..... Good to see you Red. Unfortunately I am not trading AAPL since it hit 700 and unloaded at that time. After that started feeling odd and even mentioned in private to a buddy of us that there was something very wrong happening. AAPL started recovering and then gave way. As a matter of fact, was expecting that, it was way to clear. The only thing I can say at this time is to thread very carefully if trading. Will stay on the sidelines until this bad feeling goes away. Macros are not the reason AAPL is acting badly. It is something else...
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Post by prazan on Dec 5, 2012 20:28:16 GMT -8
Took a while to find our new home Welcome back, friend.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Dec 5, 2012 20:32:22 GMT -8
Welcome. And you're doing great. You have just one fewer exalt that I do and I've been around, you know? ;D hells bells, I took a hit on the karma today, geeez. Hmmm, we are tied in Karma? How about a no first smite treaty?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 5, 2012 20:36:18 GMT -8
Welcome. And you're doing great. You have just one fewer exalt that I do and I've been around, you know? ;D hells bells, I took a hit on the karma today, geeez. You're catching up to me then? ;D
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SomeJuan
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Taking a nap…
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Post by SomeJuan on Dec 5, 2012 20:39:01 GMT -8
Well, one thing we can take away, it should be a great buying opportunity. For those with any powder dry. It is a shame to see the EO's shake the trees.
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Post by alice on Dec 5, 2012 20:39:20 GMT -8
I was about to post photos of Ms. Hathaway ( short hair) from Les Mis to lure you out. Morning updates please....take me back to earlier days..... Good to see you Red. Unfortunately I am not trading AAPL since it hit 700 and unloaded at that time. After that started feeling odd and even mentioned in private to a buddy of us that there was something very wrong happening. AAPL started recovering and then gave way. As a matter of fact, was expecting that, it was way to clear. The only thing I can say at this time is to thread very carefully if trading. Will stay on the sidelines until this bad feeling goes away. Macros are not the reason AAPL is acting badly. It is something else... What is the something else? You are scaring me.
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Post by macziggy on Dec 5, 2012 20:40:40 GMT -8
Phoebear611 posted this earlier: "This was just posted on another site -- I don't have this service so I thought it to be a bit interesting to see what the big boys have been doing: screencast-o-matic.com/watch/cllhefVfun" The video has been deleted since I watched it but it was fantastic. The author talked about the Bloomberg Service that included something called a "fear greed" oscillator (BTST). It signified when to go long and when to go short with APPL. It was astoundingly accurate. Another one was a KasePo study that called for shorting on Sept 25. Unfortunately, the Bloomberg Service costs $1500/month, so, I don't believe I'll be using it. Does anyone know anything about writing these oscillators into Think Or Swim? I don't understand the whole thinkScript concept but I did find a sequence of code that supposedly scripts this and I would be interested if anyone knows what to do with it.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 5, 2012 20:42:29 GMT -8
I know some here disregard the cash part of the equation, but Apple will grow its cash by $50 billion+ this year. A 40% increase. By the end of 2013 that translates to 170 billion in cash (178/sh) At what point is that worth a P/E of 12? If you back out existing cash (120B) and add it to the 12 years for Apple to accumulate another 480 billion dollars, that gives Apple over 600Billion in 12 years. (I can't believe that number) The market is suppose to be forward looking, can people not see the cash pile growing? Here is the thing, a company is suppose to be valued on how long it would take to earn its market cap. Apple generates so much cash that it could by most of the S&P. We are back to insanity again.
Do you see the point above? AAPL is trading well below the implied 12 p/e. There is no premium for this stock, it trades at a discount to the market. I know we have bears here, someone please tell me what is wrong with my thinking.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 5, 2012 21:01:52 GMT -8
Thanks I needed that, along with a strong white russian (or 2). Here I thought you'd be hankering for a strong Asian chick (or 2) ?
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 5, 2012 21:05:02 GMT -8
Thanks I needed that, along with a strong white russian (or 2). Here I thought you'd be hankering for a strong Asian chick (or 2) ? nice. That may have to go to the other thread.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 5, 2012 21:08:18 GMT -8
Thanks I needed that, along with a strong white russian (or 2). Here I thought you'd be hankering for a strong Asian chick (or 2) ? Heh. Well, sure, you know Shu Qi?
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 5, 2012 21:09:26 GMT -8
I was about to post photos of Ms. Hathaway ( short hair) from Les Mis to lure you out. Morning updates please....take me back to earlier days..... Good to see you Red. Unfortunately I am not trading AAPL since it hit 700 and unloaded at that time. After that started feeling odd and even mentioned in private to a buddy of us that there was something very wrong happening. AAPL started recovering and then gave way. As a matter of fact, was expecting that, it was way to clear. The only thing I can say at this time is to thread very carefully if trading. Will stay on the sidelines until this bad feeling goes away. Macros are not the reason AAPL is acting badly. It is something else... I'm so glad you're back!!! And yes please, on the Nuts Morning column pleeeeeaaase!!! Especially now that I even speak the language! Hey, go look at the whole "Technicals" area -- see, we talked divergences and all that stuff you first told me about in March 2011 when I was new to TA and didn't believe what MACD-h (my fav indicator ever!) was showing me. THIS TIME, I finally got "part" of the correction right...from 705 to 585... But I'm so obsessed with gap-filling, plus daily SMA-200, I thought the buck would stop there...but noooooo... Blah.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 5, 2012 21:28:55 GMT -8
Well, here's my theory... File this under WAG / EOs / Tin Foil Hats:
It's an evil plot, of course. Ring the bell at the top (sell) and don't buy back in until negative feedback loop spirals down to margin liquidations kicking in big time. It's a game of chicken to see which EO starts buying first, then scoop up cheap shares, force short squeeze buying, drive up the price...and do it all over again a few times until it stops working. Add to this, somebody (somebodies) knew about this margin thing before today.
I don't believe for a second that the stock is as broken as the chart indicates. The EOs just want everyone to think so...more cheap shares for them. 300 points up to kill all the shorts; 200 points down to kill all the bulls... That's high-beta.
But, hey, the long-term, non-margined investor is STILL going to be just fine. If you invest regularly, a fixed amount on a regular schedule, you'll get some high and some low, and it will all even out in the end.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Dec 5, 2012 21:38:45 GMT -8
I want to believe, Lovey.
Heck, I better......
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Post by Deleted on Dec 5, 2012 21:40:10 GMT -8
Well, here's my theory... File this under WAG / EOs / Tin Foil Hats: It's an evil plot, of course. Ring the bell at the top (sell) and don't buy back in until negative feedback loop spirals down to margin liquidations kicking in big time. It's a game of chicken to see which EO starts buying first, then scoop up cheap shares, force short squeeze buying, drive up the price...and do it all over again a few times until it stops working. Add to this, somebody (somebodies) knew about this margin thing before today. I don't believe for a second that the stock is as broken as the chart indicates. The EOs just want everyone to think so...more cheap shares for them. 300 points up to kill all the shorts; 200 points down to kill all the bulls... That's high-beta. But, hey, the long-term, non-margined investor is STILL going to be just fine. If you invest regularly, a fixed amount on a regular schedule, you'll get some high and some low, and it will all even out in the end. This was my thinking as well as we recovered off recent low. It's unbelievable that we're being taken back, EXTREMELY greedy. They're really going to test the commitment of AAPL longs. I agree there's nothing wrong with the company despite the charts and "oh, be cautious" B.S. generated by same. More Alice in Wonderland time....
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Post by madmaxroi on Dec 5, 2012 21:52:21 GMT -8
Well, here's my theory... File this under WAG / EOs / Tin Foil Hats: It's an evil plot, of course. Ring the bell at the top (sell) and don't buy back in until negative feedback loop spirals down to margin liquidations kicking in big time. It's a game of chicken to see which EO starts buying first, then scoop up cheap shares, force short squeeze buying, drive up the price...and do it all over again a few times until it stops working. Add to this, somebody (somebodies) knew about this margin thing before today. I don't believe for a second that the stock is as broken as the chart indicates. The EOs just want everyone to think so...more cheap shares for them. 300 points up to kill all the shorts; 200 points down to kill all the bulls... That's high-beta. But, hey, the long-term, non-margined investor is STILL going to be just fine. If you invest regularly, a fixed amount on a regular schedule, you'll get some high and some low, and it will all even out in the end. Still waiting for the reversal train to $650. Just my luck, I'll be at the train station when my ship comes in.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Dec 5, 2012 22:38:49 GMT -8
It's an evil plot, of course. Ring the bell at the top (sell) and don't buy back in until negative feedback loop spirals down to margin liquidations kicking in big time. It's a game of chicken to see which EO starts buying first, then scoop up cheap shares, force short squeeze buying, drive up the price...and do it all over again a few times until it stops working Exactly! But one article late today said the higher margin requirements from the one place only affected institutional investors and some financial managers or something, specifically saying it didn't affect retail investors. The thing is, 505 was still quite a bit lower. If someone didn't get an intraday margin call then, they shouldn't have gotten one now unless they got ultrabullish on the bounce. I bought a bit on the bounce, but not anywhere close to my limit. Hopefully most others did likewise. This will force some out, and scare some out. But the first strike down to 505 should have done most of the damage. I sure would have been happier to see the close anywhere close to that 562 number a few hit around early in the day, as opposed to at the low. I'm not looking forward to tomorrow, but maybe we'll see that turnaround.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 5, 2012 22:48:17 GMT -8
We closed at the LOD, odds greatly favor more down
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 5, 2012 22:52:15 GMT -8
...despite the charts and "oh, be cautious" B.S. generated by same. NOT B.S. -- charts don't lie!!
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