Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on Apr 24, 2018 2:29:17 GMT -8
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Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Apr 24, 2018 4:50:51 GMT -8
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Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Apr 24, 2018 4:54:38 GMT -8
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Post by incorrigible on Apr 24, 2018 5:03:00 GMT -8
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Post by gtrplyr on Apr 24, 2018 6:12:50 GMT -8
I'd have to agree regarding HomePod , it's just does not have enough integration with other devices yet and Apple is late to the home networking party. I've been whining/posting about this for 2.5 years and I think anyone who was thinking about smart home features could have seen this. At this point the Nest thermostat, which was started by ex-Apple employees, will not even integrate with home pod but will with Alexa. Nest is incredibly popular and Apple could have bought the company for a fraction of what they paid Jimmy Iovine and Dr. Dre for Beats. Ultimately Apple will have to work hard to get this corrected and frankly I don't see it happening, really one of the most disappointing mis-calculations I've seen them make. I use Alexa everyday to play music through my Sonos (Alexa won't play Apple music through voice command so I have to pick up the iPhone to do that) .... Alexa can directly connect to my Nest thermostat, Rachio Irrigation system, Chamberlin garage door, and Control4 system which can control almost anything in my home. I can't tell you how badly I would like to throw the Alexa in the trash and put in a Home pod but it's just not there yet. Not to be so negative but I really do think Apple needs to stop being so myopic and take some more chances like Amazon has ..... I'm sick of watching the iPhone have a stranglehold on SP. With all that money there is simply NO excuse for having missed so many things ... I can see them clearly from my living room : Control4 integration Nest Sonos Netflix Hulu Waze Spotify YouTube ANY of the above could have been purchased by Apple and would have fit nicely into their ecosystem .... Instead they bought a crappy headphone company THIS is why I've put so much money into Tesla .... it's nice to see a company thinking years ahead again and I have to admit I don't see it with Apple anymore ... I'm still long and I think they can raise SP but at this point is due to Services becoming a major revenue stream and a boatload of cash they can use to financially engineer the stock .... after that I'm going to rethink my overweight position and I've been 100% all in for a VERY long time until recently. Still love the company but I do get frustrated when I see them getting out maneuvered in various areas. Cheers to the longs ....
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Post by tuffett on Apr 24, 2018 6:20:20 GMT -8
Goodbye 200MA.
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Post by gtrplyr on Apr 24, 2018 6:29:41 GMT -8
I hope AAPL raises the dividend to $1.00 ... they can easily afford it and it would burn the hell out of the shorts.
I've been in AAPL long enough to know ... they won't.
I'm predicting $.75 which will be just under 20% ..... I want my fair share of that money that was parked in Ireland. Once again I don't mind if they want to go on a spending spree and buy some companies that will help broaden their vision but if not ... gimme my damn money!
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Post by sponge on Apr 24, 2018 7:16:23 GMT -8
I think Apple is content with present stock price. I doubt they will decide on dividends or buybacks simply based on concern from stockholders regarding low price and lack of solid appreciation in the last 6-10 months. If you bought shares 5 years ago during the low of the summer you would be up 300%. That’s a good return for investing in a solid company not an Amazon with 1% profit or Tesla with no profit or FB or Google that basis its business model on advertising and sellin the data of its customers.
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Post by Apple II+ on Apr 24, 2018 7:17:47 GMT -8
In the short term, I'll be pleasantly surprised if they raise the quarterly dividend above $0.72. I imagine it will be more like $0.70, a little higher than usual but basically in line.
They have clearly been favoring buying shares, putting upward pressure on the stock price. And raising the dividend more puts even more upward pressure on the stock price. When you're shopping for a lot of shares, you don't want to make the price go up too much too fast. Especially not when everyone sees you walking into the marketplace with a big fat wad of cash.
In the long term, I'll be happy with the effects of a bigger buyback at lower prices. That said, I hope they raise it to $1, too!
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Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on Apr 24, 2018 7:52:12 GMT -8
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Post by gtrplyr on Apr 24, 2018 7:59:47 GMT -8
And how many iPhones will 64 BILLION buy ?
Such stupidity ....
OK ... now Apple just has to manufacture EVERY part of the iPhone so suppliers will just STFU , then AAPL can say it will no longer break down product sales by numbers and only report bottom line. I'm sick to death of all of this conjecture .......
Cheers to the longs
EDIT: Can we just buy TSMC ?
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Apr 24, 2018 8:34:25 GMT -8
OK ... now Apple just has to manufacture EVERY part of the iPhone so suppliers will just STFU , then AAPL can say it will no longer break down product sales by numbers and only report bottom line. I'm sick to death of all of this conjecture I appreciate and share your frustration, but the cycles are pretty well understood by now. Less information will only engender even more guesswork, with even less accuracy. Unfortunately, the Internet is a significant contributor to this phenomenon, as analysts feel more pressure to say SOMETHING, even when it's all guesswork. I know this is easy for me to say as a dedicated long, but again, savvy traders should be able to exploit these highly repeatable cycles. Both Apple's valuation and its dedicated fan base make it a "must comment" name, and unfortunately there are many who have no scruples about the veracity of what they publish. On the other hand, it has provided AFB, where dedicated fans/customers can share information and support for each other.
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Post by lulli on Apr 24, 2018 9:30:57 GMT -8
Regarding Siri, homepod, alexa.
I think it is an issue of perception, especially the way it's handled in the press. Siri clearly is behind as a voice control tool for the home, but it is available worldwide in more languages than anyone else, and on more devices. The number of people talking to siri is likely much much larger than the number of people talking to alexa. Not at all clear what's in the cards for the future. Handling voice commands that have been predefined, alexa-like, is one thing, but the future should have an assistant that is able to understand commands no matter how you voice them, and that requires a different level of voice-recognition/AI/processing. Clearly, everyone is working on that, and in typical apple-fashion it looks like apple might want to get there without passing through a step where voice-commands are made flexible for any task by simply requiring that the speaker learns them, which in this limit is almost only voice recognition, and no AI....(almost like a command line)
The other obvious point is that the homepod is not meant for home automation and for all we know it might be selling exactly as apple expected.
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Post by gtrplyr on Apr 24, 2018 10:51:40 GMT -8
I agree with most of your point but I'm hoping that Apple is not missing the home automation capabilities as they are huge and that market is growing rapidly. I've got quite a bit in my house and look for other possibilities to add all the time. Apple needs to embrace this and pounce .... maybe I'm missing everything they have done and are doing but every time I look for something to be compatible with HomePod , it simply isn't.
Cheers to the longs
In retrospect AAPL is doing much better than a lot of tech names today.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Apr 24, 2018 10:55:54 GMT -8
One of AAPL's problems is that with Apple having a lot of it's earnings from one product section, there's a lot of worry over it. But with Apple being quiet about sales and forecasts while intraquarter, people try to pull info from elsewhere. That leads to misconstrued info from suppliers, who could have lower expectations due to Apple lowering orders of parts, but could also be hit by a slew of other factors including Apple moving some orders to less expensive, higher quality, or in house sources. This then scares out the more skittish investors. Think of it like a bunch of kids on a nighttime hike. The completely scared ones are already out, but the ones that are worried are going to scream when they hear any little thing. This is the crowd getting thinned out while there's a lack of clear and complete information. If Apple really wanted to avoid these dips they probably could by broadcasting more information, such as updated sales on a monthly basis. But that's a lot more work, and really they shouldn't be that worried about the stock price, even when talking about trying to smooth out it's gyrations. Instead, as an investor just knowing that these gyrations happen, it can give some peace. AAPL lately has been in the 16-20 range for the TTM P/E ratio, but with trailing earnings at $9.70, that gives a range close to $40. (it breached that low mark ($155) briefly in Feb) Likewise, the RSI gets down to near 30 every once in a while, and breaks through 30 seldomly. But when it's below 40 or so, it's had a string of negative days, which often means there's been a lot of negative stories too. Personally, while I haven't been the best at using a near-30 mark as a time to buy (even though it often is), I use it more as a "the sun will come out, Tomorrow" reminder. Since the stock (and all other stocks) go through peaks and valleys, it's a reminder that this is likely a "piling on of negative stories" timeframe, and that it's psychologically expected to start having doubts or not being as bullish, at least in the shorter term. But stepping back and looking at the long term (years or more), it's likely that these rumors wouldn't even matter if they did turn out to be factual, as lower sales this month or quarter wouldn't likely point to a longer term overall trend. And so for those looking at the longer term, these pullbacks are great times to get in. But on the shorter term, it's a bit of a risk analysis thing. I often consider switching over some of my shares in my Roth to some bull call spreads. But while it could have a nice payoff, such as a 100% gain while only needing the stock to not be lower at expiration, I often decide it's just not worth the risk to me on a shorter timeframe, whether that's a week out or a few years out. AAPL is down a lot, losing in 4 days what it took a month to gain. But longer term, it's up 15% from it's 12 month low, where it was roughly both 12 and 10 months ago. Personally, I'm expecting 1-2 more years of 10-15% gains for the market before the next downturn, but a 0% year could happen, and AAPL doesn't always wait for the market to have a pullback before having one of it's own. While those planning on holding for 10+ years should be fine if able to stomach it, anyone planning on a 5 or less year timeframe for some or more shares should always be ready for surprises. While I've held for an extremely long amount of time, I would like to sell some shares before the next big downturn, which puts me into the shorter term timeframe that means one always has to be mindful about holding out too long and being blindsided by a downturn. In the past this has happened when sales growth has gone negative, with long term shareholders writing it off while analysts pile on and negify, and the P/E drops down to 12 or below. Just some mid-week babble. Maybe this mornings mid-16 P/E and low 30's RSI at 161.xx was the bottom. Or maybe there will be a few more days of negativity. Either way, volume is up a lot compared to the 16th-18th, which was surprisingly low for both AAPL and the S&P, where on the 18th AAPL had less than half of it's average volume.
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Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on Apr 24, 2018 10:57:54 GMT -8
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Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on Apr 24, 2018 11:06:11 GMT -8
Thank you for the thoughtful post 4appl. Inevitably, the stock is relatively high on dividend payment date, almost as if it is planned. . I don't anticipate this time to be any different. I primarily reinvest at the gap fills, when RSI is sub 40. There are other indicators worth looking at -- so judgment is appropriate. That said this is historically the toughest quarter, price movement wise, to be an AAPL investor. The sun will come out again.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Apr 24, 2018 11:29:16 GMT -8
Inevitably, the stock is relatively high on dividend payment date, almost as if it is planned. . I don't anticipate this time to be any different. AAPL's dividend is roughly a few weeks to a month after earnings, so one would expect that if earnings were neutral to positive, that this timing would likely be when the stock was still doing well based off of earnings. OTOH, the time of the quarter nearing earnings is the time furthest from actual facts on earnings from Apple, and thus the time there is often the most speculation on those. Coincidentally, or not, it seems to be the time there's the most manipulation. Often that's the low point, which also lines up with LEAP expiration along with the major quarterly ones. As AAPL's dividend becomes more important, Apple could choose to put their dividend payment a few weeks before earnings. That could potentially smooth out the stock price a bit. But again, that's probably not something that Apple should worry much about. Still, I'm curious if that would help...
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