Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Apr 26, 2018 2:37:12 GMT -8
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,429
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Post by chinacat on Apr 26, 2018 5:19:13 GMT -8
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Apr 26, 2018 5:49:34 GMT -8
I was very tempted to add a sarcastic article of my own this morning... AAPL investors should be wary -- it's Spring the birds and the bees flapping their wings could impact air currents and iPhone shipments.
File under you too can be an analyst.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Apr 26, 2018 5:54:49 GMT -8
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,429
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Post by chinacat on Apr 26, 2018 5:57:50 GMT -8
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,429
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Post by chinacat on Apr 26, 2018 7:22:05 GMT -8
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,429
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Post by chinacat on Apr 26, 2018 9:50:37 GMT -8
It may be interesting to see whether Intel Corp. Is Gearing Up to Build Custom Chips heralds an opportunity for Apple to drive harder bargains from their current chip manufacturers. My memory is that Apple does much of its own chip design these days, and I doubt that they would turn that part of the process over to Intel.
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Post by lulli on Apr 26, 2018 10:24:13 GMT -8
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Post by tuffett on Apr 26, 2018 10:35:27 GMT -8
Predicting AMZN overtakes AAPL in market cap within a week. It won’t be permanent, but pretty crazy that it’s even a possibility. I’m happy to own both.
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Post by incorrigible on Apr 26, 2018 12:12:23 GMT -8
AMZN goes against everything I stand for as an investor. Hard to deal with the reality if the thing just going up no matter what though.
Maybe I should just dump 1/2 my AAPL and put in AMZN and forget about fundamentals, EPS and all that other apparent "horse shit which I though mattered to profitability. </rant>
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Post by tuffett on Apr 26, 2018 12:24:47 GMT -8
AMZN goes against everything I stand for as an investor. Hard to deal with the reality if the thing just going up no matter what though. Maybe I should just dump 1/2 my AAPL and put in AMZN and forget about fundamentals, EPS and all that other apparent "horse shit which I though mattered to profitability. </rant> I thought the same for many years. The reality is that it’s been a far more stress-free and lucrative investment than AAPL, over many, many years now. Up 10% today, and that’s more the norm than the exception for AMZN earnings. Who here thinks AAPL will pop 10% on earnings? AMZN up 2000% in the last 10 years. AAPL up 535%. That includes the entire cumulative impact of the iPhone, iPad and Apple Watch.
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Post by artman1033 on Apr 26, 2018 12:34:44 GMT -8
AMZN goes against everything I stand for as an investor. Hard to deal with the reality if the thing just going up no matter what though. Maybe I should just dump 1/2 my AAPL and put in AMZN and forget about fundamentals, EPS and all that other apparent "horse shit which I though mattered to profitability. </rant> HMMMMM.... AMZN operating income 1.927 billion AMZN net income 1.629 billion AWS share of operating income 1.400 billion ARE MSFT, IBM & GOOG ASLEEP? AMZN IS running out of cash..............
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benoir
fire starter
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Posts: 1,318
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Post by benoir on Apr 26, 2018 17:14:02 GMT -8
Irrational exuberance
The PE of the following is nuts: GOOG. 58 MSFT. 77 AMZN. 247 NFLX. 251
AAPL on the other hand at 16 is in the rational ball park but light on. From my armchair, I’d peg it at 24 tops.
I’d peg the others at 30 max. Anything more just doesn’t make sense.(to me) FB surprised me that it got its PE down a from stupid to 32. But does FB have long term stickiness? Time will tell.
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Post by tuffett on Apr 26, 2018 17:22:23 GMT -8
Irrational exuberance The PE of the following is nuts: GOOG. 58 MSFT. 77 AMZN. 247 NFLX. 251 AAPL on the other hand at 16 is in the rational ball park but light on. From my armchair, I’d peg it at 24 tops. I’d peg the others at 30 max. Anything more just doesn’t make sense.(to me) FB surprised me that it got its PE down a from stupid to 32. But does FB have long term stickiness? Time will tell. FB owns Instagram and WhatsApp. Massive stickiness.
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benoir
fire starter
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Posts: 1,318
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Post by benoir on Apr 26, 2018 18:01:46 GMT -8
FB owns Instagram and WhatsApp. Massive stickiness. The Walkman was sticky too. What was that social media thing for bands Yahoo.... I don’t disagree with you for the present or even medium term. But there’s an ephemeral quality to FB. I kinda loath it now - and I’m not alone. And I’m not going to be suckered(too easily) in to instagram or what’s app.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Apr 26, 2018 19:50:01 GMT -8
I don’t disagree with you for the present or even medium term. But there’s an ephemeral quality to FB. I kinda loath it now - and I’m not alone. And I’m not going to be suckered(too easily) in to instagram or what’s app. Many of us aren't in their target range. I'm guessing if we were late to the FB cycle, and never tried out those other things, we're not part of it. I tried to explain this to a friend I was helping the other day, that FB wasn't the best way to communicate with all volunteers. I'm not that much older than he is, but I just don't check FB on a daily (nor hourly) basis. I'm only pulling the data if I actually check the site, and any FB emails go into my ads site, partially because I get a bunch of ones in spanish that I didn't sign up for. The question is how do those young folks view FB, and does it remain sticky for them, or does the combination of trendiness and privacy issues lead them elsewhere or even just reduced their visits... Aaron (I expect that for most it's similar to google getting their info, or getting an app or website for free while seeing a few ads. Personally, I still use a gmail account as my main account after switching from .mac back when they started charging for it, so I'm not completely immune...)
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Post by david on Apr 26, 2018 20:09:13 GMT -8
AMZN goes against everything I stand for as an investor. Hard to deal with the reality if the thing just going up no matter what though. Maybe I should just dump 1/2 my AAPL and put in AMZN and forget about fundamentals, EPS and all that other apparent "horse shit which I though mattered to profitability. </rant> I thought the same for many years. The reality is that it’s been a far more stress-free and lucrative investment than AAPL, over many, many years now. Up 10% today, and that’s more the norm than the exception for AMZN earnings. Who here thinks AAPL will pop 10% on earnings? AMZN up 2000% in the last 10 years. AAPL up 535%. That includes the entire cumulative impact of the iPhone, iPad and Apple Watch. ssshhh ... did I hear someone say “shit investor”?
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Apr 26, 2018 20:36:56 GMT -8
I thought the same for many years. The reality is that it’s been a far more stress-free and lucrative investment than AAPL, over many, many years now. Up 10% today, and that’s more the norm than the exception for AMZN earnings. Who here thinks AAPL will pop 10% on earnings? AMZN up 2000% in the last 10 years. AAPL up 535%. That includes the entire cumulative impact of the iPhone, iPad and Apple Watch. ssshhh ... did I hear someone say “shit investor”? If it works, it works. Truthfully, often when I look at other stocks, I'm too scared to invest in them, mainly because I see their "too high compared to AAPL" P/E, and assume it will be squished at some point, and don't want to be on the wrong side of the trade when it does. At the same time, I have seen and know of people that invested in many of the high fliers of yesteryear, whether that's Dell, MSFT, Qualcom, or anyone else. Often, after making their money, they just continued to sit on it. And that did ok, but lagged the indexes, and most other investments. While I like Apple, I'd rather not completely rest on my laurels for the next few decades, while underperforming (EDIT: rather, if it were to be underperforming the market. Currently, I expect AAPL to match or beat the market). But expecting other P/E's to get squished in short order just because AAPL's did is setting aside all of the differences between Apple and everyone else. Apple is still the underdog or at least the other choice in both OS and iOS, and rightfully seen as the high cost leader. It's more akin to the Chevy vs Ford, where there's a polarized basis. You don't really get that with AMZN, or GOOG, or NFLX. None have a singular competition that is anywhere close. That's not all of it. But it does play a part. At some point it's momentum investing vs fundamentals, and it's really just up to the individual. Personally, I shorted AMZN for a day back in ~1999 when it first broke 100, and made $100 or $200. It seemed like the right thing to do, and I made money off of it. But, obviously in hind site, AMZN has done great. And while it's fundamentals might look crazy compared to a department store or something, I think we can all agree that it's made great strides in the past 20+ years. And of course, I wouldn't mind if I had owned some long term, even though AAPL has done more than pay the bills. AAPL has been great, but it doesn't have to be the only one out there or the best one out there, even if some things about these other stocks don't look sustainable.
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Post by tuffett on Apr 26, 2018 20:59:40 GMT -8
I thought the same for many years. The reality is that it’s been a far more stress-free and lucrative investment than AAPL, over many, many years now. Up 10% today, and that’s more the norm than the exception for AMZN earnings. Who here thinks AAPL will pop 10% on earnings? AMZN up 2000% in the last 10 years. AAPL up 535%. That includes the entire cumulative impact of the iPhone, iPad and Apple Watch. ssshhh ... did I hear someone say “shit investor”? Nope. But I’ll say it now.
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