Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Apr 30, 2018 2:39:06 GMT -8
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Apr 30, 2018 4:52:59 GMT -8
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Post by michelc on Apr 30, 2018 5:07:53 GMT -8
My estimate for tomorrow .
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Post by michelc on Apr 30, 2018 5:46:51 GMT -8
Well did I miss a news this morning? Any reason for that big opening
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ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 537
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Post by ono on Apr 30, 2018 6:15:41 GMT -8
Apple-focused analyst Ming-Chi Kuo leaves KGI
Known for often having an inside track on Apple's product plans, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has reportedly left Taiwan's KGI Securities, and is expected to drop his focus on Apple.
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Apr 30, 2018 6:20:53 GMT -8
Well did I miss a news this morning? Any reason for that big opening Pre repatriation buying? AAPL buying before a surprise earnings beat? Anticipated major dividend boost buying? 🤔
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,429
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Post by chinacat on Apr 30, 2018 6:25:41 GMT -8
Well did I miss a news this morning? Any reason for that big opening How about now that the Big Boys have driven the price down enough, they are getting back in before earnings?
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,429
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Post by chinacat on Apr 30, 2018 6:27:12 GMT -8
Apple-focused analyst Ming-Chi Kuo leaves KGI Known for often having an inside track on Apple's product plans, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has reportedly left Taiwan's KGI Securities, and is expected to drop his focus on Apple. Hallelujah!
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Apr 30, 2018 6:49:25 GMT -8
Well did I miss a news this morning? Any reason for that big opening How about now that the Big Boys have driven the price down enough, they are getting back in before earnings? Seems risky for the “big boys” given that AAPL tanks hard on bad news - unless they know all the FUD is just that....
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Apr 30, 2018 7:13:39 GMT -8
How about now that the Big Boys have driven the price down enough, they are getting back in before earnings? Seems risky for the “big boys” given that AAPL tanks hard on bad news - unless they know all the FUD is just that.... Where do you thing the FUD originates?
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Post by carbonate24 on Apr 30, 2018 7:34:13 GMT -8
Apple-focused analyst Ming-Chi Kuo leaves KGI Known for often having an inside track on Apple's product plans, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has reportedly left Taiwan's KGI Securities, and is expected to drop his focus on Apple. Hallelujah! I second that. Kuo being expected to drop his focus on Apple was the best news I heard this morning. The first 35 minutes of trading caught me off guard, but it was a nice surprise. Hopefully, the after-hours session tomorrow has an even better reaction upward!
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Apr 30, 2018 9:22:56 GMT -8
Don't you hate it when you find a ToysRUs gift card in a drawer, a week after they stopped accepting them? No problem, at least there is Bacoin. finance.yahoo.com/news/oscar-mayer-launches-cryptocurrency-bacon-155215869.html (promotion from Oscar Meyer, with the fine print saying the maximum value of all prizes is $48,000. The 2 minute video was fun. kraftheinz.promo.eprize.com/bacoin/ ) OTOH, do you want to get some Behavioral Psychology tips, where it would lead you to expect people owning AAPL generally expect earnings/guidance to be good, and those not owning expect it to not be good? I'm reading "Predictably Irrational" right now (ok, apparently it's a rereading. Senility can set in at an early age), and it's well worth it for some of the insights, even if I don't agree with all of them. While I don't think picking up some wine on discount makes me like it any less, I would be curious about trying the MIT Brew of putting in 2 drops of Balsamic per ounce of beer....and I would even futz with the ratio. Regardless, it's an interesting book, and I must have picked it up the first time off of a recommendation in one of Ken Fisher's books. It's been out a while, so dust off a copy from your local library. Cheers to the longs. Counterintuitively, and slightly pessimistically, I expect this quarter to likely come in a little higher on revenue/earnings in part due to the iPhone X, but then for people to not like the guidance. It happens....a lot. And this is the time of the year that it can be expected to happen the most when earnings are so concentrated on a specific annual product cycle, especially as Apple tends to be a little conservative on guidance predictions (as they should be). But it all works out in the longer term, and so should be back trying to punch through 190-200 in 6 months, after bottoming out in May or June and only slightly recovering over the summer. Just a slightly pessimistic guess based on the past 84 quarters. But like Apple or an Analyst being a little conservative, if actual results are even better, not too many complain. IMO that's why the individuals always have higher expectations on PED's quarterly list than the paid Analysts. The paid ones have a safety factor in their expectations. It's like on "The Price is Right", where you want to under-guess by a little. If you over-estimate, you're out of the game.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Apr 30, 2018 11:18:08 GMT -8
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Apr 30, 2018 12:10:52 GMT -8
"For tomorrow, the Street is looking for $61.86 billion in revenue, including unit sales of 53 million iPhones, and EPS of $2.69. As far as what Apple may forecast for the third quarter, the expectation is $51.72 billion in revenue and $2.13 per share in earnings, including 42 million units of the iPhone." Compared to '17 Q2's 52.9B revenue, 2.10 EPS, and 50.7M iPhones, that doesn't sound all that bad. A 17% increase in revenue, 28% increase in EPS, and 4.5% increase in iPhone units. Likewise on the forecast, compared to '17 Q3's 45.4 rev, 1.67 EPS, and 41.0M iPhones. That would be a 14% increase in revenue, a 28% increase in EPS, and a 2.4% increase in iPhone units. My feeling is that while the iPhone unit sales stay positive, and the Services increase, then the EPS increase should work itself into the stock price, eventually. As long as things don't look dour for Apple or the market, the P/E range of 16-20 should continue, so that 28% YOY EPS increase should increase the stock price range by that amount. OTOH, it's when Apple puts out a forecast below the YOY numbers that really gets people in a tizzy. I hope that Apple, while remaining cautiously optimistic, has guidance that is YOY positive.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Apr 30, 2018 12:19:59 GMT -8
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,429
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Post by chinacat on Apr 30, 2018 12:27:51 GMT -8
Perhaps an encouraging day going into earnings tomorrow, given performance by the rest of the Market.
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