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Post by ibuyer on Dec 7, 2012 14:24:02 GMT -8
Damn straight, JD! yes that's right I'm agreeing with JD, pretty crazy huh EDIT: Wait...the Germans? (I gotta watch that movie one of these days...) TOGA TOGA TOGA!
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Post by Rupert on Dec 7, 2012 14:26:59 GMT -8
AZ in a long term rebuilding phase.
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Post by aapl4kiki on Dec 7, 2012 14:29:49 GMT -8
Crap that isn't what he's saying is he? What's the IF? The IF was making it above 575. The then was 473-500. After that, new ATH. If there's a potential for another 60 points down, I need to capitalize on that the best I can. I've been saying for the past three weeks that I'm going to trade off what Avi says. Well now I'm finally doing it. Better late than never. From what I can tell, we need to get back over 575 on good volume (not sure what good volume is here) and then that last trip down to 518 was the bottom and he's expecting ATHs in early 2013. If we can't break above 575 then we're headed back to 500. Only then can we proceed back to ATHs in 2013. Did I get this right?
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Post by ibuyer on Dec 7, 2012 14:30:43 GMT -8
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 7, 2012 14:34:07 GMT -8
20B over the course of two years is simply not enough. I would like them to be more aggressive RIGHT NOW. I don't think the time will ever be better than in the immediate future. Because if shit does hit the fan and our growth completely stalls or we start contracting, a buy back won't matter. I don't believe that is going to happen any time soon, so do the damn buy back now. It would be only a pipedream for them to announce more than that. PO has stated it want to keep ample dry powder of onshore cash. They have 40B on-shore. So, 20B is 1/2 of that. Obviously, the 80B offshore is still there but AAPL is too chicken shit to do what it should. Issue on shore debt backed by the offshore cash and cashflow. They can alway increase the size as and when they need. 20B will barely move the needle. Spending 50 to 60 billion to buyback 10% of outstanding shares over 12 months would be a good result that barely touches apples cash pile (remember apple adds around 10 billion cash every quarter). 10% share buy back will add $5-$6 to EPS over the next 12 months, and apple will still have over $100 billion in cash.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 7, 2012 14:35:00 GMT -8
AZ has been panicking since we went below 615 and his first call to buy. It's been hard to pay much attention to him over the past month. do you know if sold out of his option positions only or even his stocks? I know he uses a lot of BCS... but also a stock portfolio. The Jan BCS's were mentioned.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 7, 2012 14:38:50 GMT -8
Now this makes sense for the sell off this week. It came out Monday, but retail does not find out about it until market close on Friday. This was "the" patent that Apple had that I thought was golden. Until the iphone multi-touch was non-existent.
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Post by appledoc on Dec 7, 2012 14:43:53 GMT -8
Now this makes sense for the sell off this week. It came out Monday, but retail does not find out about it until market close on Friday. This was "the" patent that Apple had that I thought was golden. Until the iphone multi-touch was non-existent. It's all bullshit. Looking forward to winning the appeal.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 7, 2012 14:52:41 GMT -8
Question is, why would it be denied? Politics.
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Post by fas550 on Dec 7, 2012 14:53:07 GMT -8
The IF was making it above 575. The then was 473-500. After that, new ATH. If there's a potential for another 60 points down, I need to capitalize on that the best I can. I've been saying for the past three weeks that I'm going to trade off what Avi says. Well now I'm finally doing it. Better late than never. The '$575' was a signal that the bottom was in. The 'if' I'm talking about is the 2 wave we are in within a 5. 'If' the '2' only goes up to ~535 then we will see a four handle. We since beat $535. As far as I can see we are still in the '2' and could go higher Monday. THAT is the 'IF". Thanks very much for the explanation
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Post by terps530 on Dec 7, 2012 15:07:12 GMT -8
i apologize for being such a negative nancy lately and stressing out about the minute-by-minute moves.
i screwed up bad lately, and this is the one place where I feel I can let it out cause some others are in the same boat. if my parents, wife, friends, etc knew the extent of this... well i'd have a lot more problems. i'm confident i'll dig out of the hole, but for now this is the spot I can vent to others who understand it all.
here's to a turnaround at some point ;D cheers
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 7, 2012 15:09:54 GMT -8
Terps, you do not have to apologize, I consider this a support group in times like this.
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Post by cambrose on Dec 7, 2012 15:13:31 GMT -8
I like watching Breaking Bad on bad trading days. Reminds me that things could be worse. At least I didn't try to make my fortune cooking Meth. I may be down, but I'm not fighting for my life.
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Post by rosie on Dec 7, 2012 15:14:35 GMT -8
i apologize for being such a negative nancy lately and stressing out about the minute-by-minute moves. i screwed up bad lately, and this is the one place where I feel I can let it out cause some others are in the same boat. if my parents, wife, friends, etc knew the extent of this... well i'd have a lot more problems. i'm confident i'll dig out of the hole, but for now this is the spot I can vent to others who understand it all. here's to a turnaround at some point ;D cheers hey! no need to apologize for your honesty about your current mind set and situation. it takes a strong person to admit to anyone, let alone their own self that they screwed up. and yes, this will all work out. and with lessons learned, once we figure out what they are.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 7, 2012 15:22:31 GMT -8
+1
Weekend thread is open for a change of time zone and perspective.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Dec 7, 2012 15:38:01 GMT -8
"Nick has changed his position 100% from two months ago. If you listened to him over the past two months you would be loosing BIG. Back then he was telling all to buy Jan14 700-800 spreads." +1 Suddenly when his predictions aren't working out he is saying that AAPL has "changed" and is now "wildly unpredictable". I call shenanigans! If you are a long term AAPL investor you will have seen solid year on year gains for a long period, punctuated by big short term rises & falls. Saying "this time its different" on one of those big swings is foolish. It has changed. AAPL trades the way the stock market traded right after the Debt Ceiling crap in August '11, with 5% swings every day. It's almost like the EO wants to screw guys like AZ, Jason Schwarz and Nick Nansen; all 3 of these guys (well now 2) have open access to their investments (if you subscribe to their newsletters), and I could see a concerted effort to want to take them down. I wouldn't be surprised to see us get this same crap right up to earnings. In fact, maybe the EO want us to think that. I've lost confidence in AAPL's direction, and I am almost out, so drops like today weren't as painful. In fact, I'm selling options in the 600 range against my long calls in the 700 range (bear call spread), and making pocket money. This stuff is crazy. And you have to keep in the back of your mind, the stuff that crazy fool Elder said about parabolic runs resulting in crash and burn - despite f'ing incredible fundamentals - and what Redler said about a possible head and shoulders in the weekly. This is all about cash preservation now, especially if the bozos in DC blow it.
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Post by rickag on Dec 7, 2012 15:49:58 GMT -8
i apologize for being such a negative nancy lately and stressing out about the minute-by-minute moves. i screwed up bad lately, and this is the one place where I feel I can let it out cause some others are in the same boat. if my parents, wife, friends, etc knew the extent of this... well i'd have a lot more problems. i'm confident i'll dig out of the hole, but for now this is the spot I can vent to others who understand it all. here's to a turnaround at some point ;D cheers There is absolutely unequivocally no reason to apologize. And yes I vote for a turnaround soon.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 7, 2012 15:51:50 GMT -8
It's cash preservation for OPTIONS TRADERS. That's the game we play, the life we live, by 100% choice. If you're out, fine (though all the "I'm out of the market, and now bearish" is getting a little tired, I'm sure more than a few of you are now). Do have some consideration for those of us still trapped in the "burning building" in varying degrees, OK? And this losing confidence in AAPL deal is nothing new, so I'd better not be hearing any "for the first time, I'm losing confidence" stuff from you veterans. Oh, and that H&S? Actually, you could say there's two. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=aaplThere's only so much venting to do before you calm down a bit and focus on what's in front of you. I see three possibilities. AAPL recovers; AAPL sideways; AAPL leads an outright market correction, ranging from something "standard" to something out of 2008-09. Funny how you can say something like that almost any day, huh? That's how those of us who trade have to think, IMHO. Place your bets.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 7, 2012 16:50:31 GMT -8
Proof how messed up our patent system is. All this litigation and the USPTO decides to make this decision now? Assuming she just found out about it, Judge Koh must be drinking a double tonight.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 7, 2012 16:56:13 GMT -8
Luckily, Apple patents the heck out of everything. It'd take years to invalidate the rest of the iOS-related patents. (/sarcasm)
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Dec 7, 2012 18:04:44 GMT -8
The day after Apple won the Samsung case, the stock popped from 680 to 690. So maybe if Apple gets the decision overturned or this important patent is invalidated, we'll go straight back to 680...
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Post by Lstream on Dec 7, 2012 18:13:19 GMT -8
Proof how messed up our patent system is. All this litigation and the USPTO decides to make this decision now? Assuming she just found out about it, Judge Koh must be drinking a double tonight. This process was started by someone presenting a case to open up the patent for re-examination. The USPTO would not do this on its own. Unfortunately I learned about this process this week. Some patent troll in patent troll heaven (Eastern Texas) took patent action against us this week. Some goofy patent by a non practicing entity. It amounts to legalized extortion because the cost of defending is so ridiculous. Plus these parasites waited for about 5 years after we were in the market to lob this bomb at us. The frikken lawyers even posed as customers and called our sales people up, in attempt to gather data on our business. We may choose to go down that re-examination path, but it is one huge pain in the ass and expensive. Damn rights the system is broken
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Post by steeler on Dec 7, 2012 19:06:24 GMT -8
The day after Apple won the Samsung case, the stock popped from 680 to 690. So maybe if Apple gets the decision overturned or this important patent is invalidated, we'll go straight back to 680... Before fiscal cliff problem resolve and year end selling stops for tax reason, I don't think that is going to happen. It may be wise to hoard cash now and re-enter early next year.
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Post by qualitywte on Dec 7, 2012 19:36:50 GMT -8
In my opinion and having seen this type of action on stocks in my years....lots of tax selling and LOTS of hedge fund redemptions...and they are selling AAPL. Unfortunately, it triggers tech levels and then it all just feeds on itself but I know several people with money in hedge funds and every single one is redeeming. Of course it begs the question - they'll come back in right?..even if it's another hedge fund. The answer is "probably" but I think they will wait for Washington to make SOME/ANY decision to eliminate some uncertainty. That's my opinion for what it's worth...anecdotal and having traveled down this road in other instances in the past. +100. One thing for sure, we are not headed far north till after the FC is sorted. It's not the only reason for the fall but its a key closure item to get us to move up And it will be resolved. I believe that and I also believe in a good Jan. earnings report. The growth is not over. I'm holding my '14 and '15 options. Maybe I'll make some adjustments but not while they have beat us down at these levels.
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Post by qualitywte on Dec 7, 2012 19:47:07 GMT -8
Ill repeat my very first post and I still believe it, "C'mon Steve (now TC), throw us a bone will ya. How about a split?" 3:1 should do nicely but no more than 4 (giving us 4B shares). I don't see the downside at this point as I did not then. Is friggen psychological value would be good. How good is anyone's guess With all due respect, a share split might not do anything for the crappy action. typically, stock splits work to increase (or the perception of) participation as the stock is rising. IMO doing defensively would be not be helpful. I agree. If we're going to get a split or even a bigger buyback, I don't want it announced while we're beat down like we are now. It would be perceived as desperation. I would like to see the board consider some actions like these when we get back up.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 7, 2012 19:50:58 GMT -8
Desperate times call for desperate measures. It s pretty much official now that TC adopted the SJ view on shareholders.
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