Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on May 2, 2018 2:35:11 GMT -8
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coma
Member
Posts: 522
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Post by coma on May 2, 2018 2:47:18 GMT -8
Haven't come across any mea culpa's... They're all bleeding from their shorts.
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Post by tonitheboz on May 2, 2018 4:19:47 GMT -8
May 3 ?? So I miss the 2nd day of May the day after earnings 😝😝😝😝 Btw I’m very happy with the numbers little bit disappointed with the dividend I was expecting at least 3$ considered the cash hoard to be returned I find 6% more than the usual % they do not so “special” but I don’t complain at all Go Long
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Post by hledgard on May 2, 2018 4:58:29 GMT -8
Not a criticism. "The iPhone X was the top seller every week"
Given that Apple now seems so many older iPhones, this was an easy target. If one of us buys a phone, the choice is X or one of the others. There are so many "others", the X should win.
The real plus on the X is that the users really like them !
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Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on May 2, 2018 5:01:01 GMT -8
May 3 ?? So I miss the 2nd day of May the day after earnings 😝😝😝😝 Btw I’m very happy with the numbers little bit disappointed with the dividend I was expecting at least 3$ considered the cash hoard to be returned I find 6% more than the usual % they do not so “special” but I don’t complain at all Go Long As Cdnphoto knows, I'm having trouble with space/time coordinates today. Thank god I'm a Space Ranger and not a Time Lord. Chalk it up to 'irrational exuberance'. Fixed. Again. Hopefully for good. As to the dividend, I was a bit disappointed with 16% as well, but as 4appl pointed out in a post last night, that compounds very quickly. Many prefer stock appreciation (capital gains) versus dividends (income).
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Post by longsince98 on May 2, 2018 5:06:36 GMT -8
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,429
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Post by chinacat on May 2, 2018 5:41:11 GMT -8
Good mea culpa, but he showed his true colors by not being able to resist a dig at the "$1000 phone."
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Post by PikesPique on May 2, 2018 5:43:02 GMT -8
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Post by gtrplyr on May 2, 2018 5:47:02 GMT -8
We should be over $200 .... period.
I don't think we are seeing any short squeeze yet, at least this mornings gains so far don't indicate so. Apple should have done at least a 30% dividend raise at minimum .... cheapskates.
One point I heard from an analyst was how Apple has managed to smooth out iPhone numbers so we get more consistent quarters ... at least that's something.
Once again .... we should be over $200
Cheers to the longs
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Post by artman1033 on May 2, 2018 5:47:58 GMT -8
ooooh.
nice start of the day.
14 million shares traded in first 15 minutes.
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on May 2, 2018 5:56:29 GMT -8
The haters are in retreat, but they are not giving up:
"ASP came in light, down 9% q/q despite a full quarter of iPhone X availability, which echoes our concerns about mix weakening," BMO Capital Markets analyst Tim Long wrote in a note to clients Tuesday. "ASP of $728 missed both our/consensus expectations, reflecting our concern that iPhone X mix faded vs. earlier expectations."
This despite Tim's commentary that the iPhone X has been the most popular model every week since its release.
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on May 2, 2018 6:33:48 GMT -8
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Post by sponge on May 2, 2018 6:40:55 GMT -8
Solid numbers all the way around.
TC emphasized the growing installed base which is growing double digits. Everyone keeps focusing on the iPhone numbers but forgets two factors. There are millions of phones that are sold in after market and given the drop in ASP, Apple is selling quite a few 7s. The iPhone is becoming more affordable because it lasts longer. What many see as a problematic longer upgrade cycle, it is rather a strength that makes the phones more available for more people.
IPhones sales were down 5% last quarter because of a longer quarter this year (WS missed the extra week) but yet services grew 31%.
The wearables are in the first inning. The Apple Watch, AirPods, and future products will be huge revenue generators in 3 years.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on May 2, 2018 6:51:47 GMT -8
The haters are in retreat, but they are not giving up: "ASP came in light, down 9% q/q despite a full quarter of iPhone X availability, which echoes our concerns about mix weakening," BMO Capital Markets analyst Tim Long wrote in a note to clients Tuesday. "ASP of $728 missed both our/consensus expectations, reflecting our concern that iPhone X mix faded vs. earlier expectations." This despite Tim's commentary that the iPhone X has been the most popular model every week since its release. There's always something that's light. While this was a good quarter, and much better than the fear that had been pushed lately, it wasn't a great or fantastic quarter. Well, 30% YOY earnings growth is pretty fantastic, as is 31% services growth. Those are pretty awesome! I relistened to Luca's portion, on the replay from ~13 to ~25 minutes. I hadn't picked up a couple of unit and ASP numbers on the live call. The ASP for iPhones the last 6 quarters are $728 '18 Q2 $796 '18 Q1 $618 '17 Q4 $606 '17 Q3 $655 '17 Q2 $695 '17 Q1 So, YOY the iPhone is still rocking awesome increases in ASP, but this quarter it's a $73 YOY increase, as opposed to last Q's $101 increase. Which makes sense, with the people most excited about the new iPhones, and thus most willing to shell out more for the higher end models, are ready to buy earlier in the cycle. Either way, a $73 increase on 52.2M units is a crisp $3.8B. Nice! As for the share price, AAPL really has been staying in the 16-20 P/E range. With the new numbers, at $176.5 that puts it at a TTM P/E of 17. It's a start. And if AAPL hits just above 19, it would have a market cap of $1T, and that would give a share price of a hair below $200. Patience. It will happen. Zaky isn't completely crazy that a big market correction will happen at some point, and it could happen before Apple hits the $1T level. Likewise, while Amazon or someone else might hit that level quicker, I don't see that as a problem, as I think having the competition of a few companies in that ballpark will make the market give less friction to that big valuation. By most metrics, valuations , and comparisons Apple should already be there. But hey, life isn't fair, but investors in AAPL have still done pretty well. Thanks Apple
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on May 2, 2018 7:26:08 GMT -8
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Post by mrentropy on May 2, 2018 8:19:48 GMT -8
Did anyone hear Tony sacconaghi (sp?) ask a question last night? I skimmed the call and don’t recall hearing him. If he didn’t, wonder if it was because they avoided him or because he was so wrong he didn’t want to be heard from. Also didn’t see a summary from him on PED’s site today.
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on May 2, 2018 8:20:44 GMT -8
One would hope a few people are doing some explaining today... Like why they should continue to be employed.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on May 2, 2018 9:28:29 GMT -8
One would hope a few people are doing some explaining today... Like why they should continue to be employed. While in theory that (firing those that overwrote the downside) always sounds good, in reality you'd then have a bunch of newbies who have yet to make the mistakes they ideally need to learn from. Apple is going to continue to be a potential name-maker for analysts, and so they will take risks, trying to be the one that called the change first, and then basing their career on that. We already have a few that are the high-flyer numbers that even make most bullish blush. There's always going to be a few negative nancies too. Negativity sells. And in the stock market where there are always cycles, and often people are caught off guard by them, someone is eventually going to be right. Like a stopped clock being right twice a day. Ahhh Cramer. Like I said before, I sure didn't like him before, and remember watching his show at a hotel gym 10 years ago as more of a comedy routine than anything else. And truthfully, I just ready part of his 4 or 5 year old book (Get Rich, Carefully) where he did a comparison of the FAANG stocks, and liked Amazon and Google, but said a lot of bad stuff about Apple (but really, since then, AMZN has outperformed AAPL). He has seemed a bit too much of an AAPL fanboy at times in the last year or two, and maybe that's winding down, which is fine too if he managed to do a lot better by catching the creamiest part of the cycle, while stating to hold it long term. Anyway, he's asking if there's too much negativity. And while he doesn't mention AAPL directly, the things he does mention match up exactly with AAPL, partially now but also many times in the last 5, 10, and 20 years. www.thestreet.com/video/jim-cramer-on-the-markets-is-there-too-much-negativity-14575318After listening to the call, I have a feeling Apple has already bought their last $10B worth of stock from the plan they are using up a few quarters early. Personally, I'm thinking that they will only minimally use money from their new $100B plan in the short term, instead holding onto most of that until the next major downturn. I wouldn't fault them for using half after a 15% drop, and the other half if it dropped 20%. Or 14% and 18%. Or whatever...to be a decent backstop. Think long term, being ready for any infrequent marketwide drop that statistically is likely in the next 1 to 10 years. Nice to see AAPL holding this $176.50 level. While I'd prefer a 60M vol day like we saw heading down on 4-20, a couple more days of bolstering the base will prepare AAPL for breaking out above the ATM. (edit: Volume at 54M with an hour to go. It's trying for 60M)
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on May 2, 2018 10:29:37 GMT -8
I would add a note of caution for all...
One thing today will leave is a huge gap from $169.10. While they don't always, gaps have a tendency to fill. I will hold my dividend in cash with a reinvestment target of $169.10.
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Ted
fire starter
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Post by Ted on May 2, 2018 11:11:53 GMT -8
Just for perspective: qz.com/1268193/apples-content-business-is-already-twice-as-big-as-netflix/"Apple already has a massive content business, despite barely dipping its toe into the lucrative world of TV programming.
The company, which announced its second-quarter earnings yesterday (May 1), lumps together its sales of music from iTunes, apps, games, and movies on the App Store, and Apple Music and iCloud subscriptions, into a business line it calls Services. This quarter, Services generated $9.2 billion, more than double the $3.7 billion in sales Netflix posted in the same period."
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Post by sponge on May 2, 2018 11:35:08 GMT -8
I would add a note of caution for all... One thing today will leave is a huge gap from $169.10. While they don't always, gaps have a tendency to fill. I will hold my dividend in cash with a reinvestment target of $169.10. Thinking the same thing. This morning we pretty much filled the gap from the drop on 4/19. I can see us filling this gap by end of June or beginning of July. I am impressed with how the stock had held up today. Side note I left 300% gain by getting out of my weeklies in the first 5 min. No worries plenty of future opportunities will be provided in the future. In fact I see one right after Memorial Day and going into WWDC. In regards to analyst, everyone keeps giving them a hard time for their bad calls. They won't be fired because they are making their firms lots of money by dragging the stock down so they can load up. They did so on Monday and Tuesday and now selling to the retail folks today.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on May 2, 2018 11:58:42 GMT -8
After listening to the call, I have a feeling Apple has already bought their last $10B worth of stock from the plan they are using up a few quarters early. Personally, I'm thinking that they will only minimally use money from their new $100B plan in the short term, instead holding onto most of that until the next major downturn. I wouldn't fault them for using half after a 15% drop, and the other half if it dropped 20%. Or 14% and 18%. Or whatever...to be a decent backstop. Think long term, being ready for any infrequent marketwide drop that statistically is likely in the next 1 to 10 years. Expanding on that a little: My bet is that Apple has already spent the last $10B of the former buyback, buying at the low-$160 price seen in the last 2 weeks. That's why Luca could say with certainty that they would be finishing up that buyback a this quarter, a few quarters early. Likewise, they specifically said the new buyback plan doesn't have a timeframe. Apple is a smart company that plans for things long term. The obvious choice is to only spend a trivial amount of that anytime soon (say enough to offset compensation via stock and options), but keep the majority to backstop AAPL on the next major downturn, likely a market-wide event. While the market has had a good long streak here, there are always pullbacks, and always more major downturns or even crashes. It's how it all works. If you don't think there will be a major downturn of 20+% in the next 1 to 10 years, then you haven't looked much at the past 20 years, or further. While IMO we are not at a peak now, for AAPL or for the major indices, we are likely a lot closer to the top than the bottom. IMO there's no mania to beget a panic (for a recent example of that, see Bitcoin last December). But whether we get a major slide or a mania induced panic, the market will continue to fluctuate as always. For the most bang for it's buck, whether that's maximizing share purchase, or to minimize AAPL's drop to say 19% while the rest of the market sees a 27% pullback, it would be good long term thinking for Apple to hold this new buyback bounty in reserve. And thus, based on Apple's MO over the past 2 decades, I think that is what they will do. (EDIT: but I may be wrong. On the 18 analyst notes I jotted down today, one mentioned that Apple planned to buy back "quickly". I didn't hit every word on the conference call, so likely I missed that. But Luca's multiple times mentioning that there was no specific timeframe, due to the largeness of this buyback, made me feel that Apple could very well decide to carry a large portion of this $100B in their back pocket for when a real buying opportunity presented itself. Sometimes it pays to think like Buffet, of having a large cash reserve, and using it when a great deal presents itself. That's where I'd like to sit, but I'll admit that I'm more than a couple zero's behind him. Crowdsourcing? I'm in!) Good job Apple. Good job today AAPL. There's that 60M volume I was hoping for.
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on May 2, 2018 15:21:13 GMT -8
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on May 2, 2018 15:24:18 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on May 2, 2018 19:28:38 GMT -8
Yep, Doug Kass has that worst possible personality trait for investors, being more concerned with being proven right than changing one's mind when it's obvious you are wrong. Who would want such a guy investing their money? This is why you have to give Cramer slack. He's come around on Apple. Nobody on earth could have predicted what the iPhone would become 10 years ago. Hey, I finally came around on Amazon. But anyone who invests in Tesla will soon be parted from his money. Tesla cash burn accelerates, CEO predicts profit aheadTesla stock drops as Elon Musk gives bizarre earnings callI've said it before; Musk is nuts and incompetent, and TSLA will end in tears. Musk will cause billions of shareholder wealth to be lost (while walking away with billions himself), but he'll get a pass because he is viewed like a cult leader. Anyone who says Apple should hire him I am blocking for life. Nice AAPL day, considering the red market day. Hopefully we'll pierce $180 this week and not look back...
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Post by Luckychoices on May 2, 2018 19:32:02 GMT -8
Knowing how we all appreciate analysts, I was struck by this insightful comment on Seeking Alpha from someone with the username, LaggyKun.
"If you take all analysts and put them in line, its not the worst thing you could do with them."
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on May 2, 2018 20:11:39 GMT -8
I've said it before; Musk is nuts and incompetent, and TSLA will end in tears. Musk will cause billions of shareholder wealth to be lost (while walking away with billions himself), but he'll get a pass because he is viewed like a cult leader. The cnbc article isn't loading, but in general it's got to be tough running one company, let alone 2. And I imagine that for those that are crazy enough to be breaking the rules in technology, they might not be the best at running all other parts. Thus if they don't manage to hire out the parts that they aren't good at, they implode. SJ went through this struggle, just as I'm sure many others have. My interpretation from what I've read is that he didn't have a good grasp on the full picture until leaving Apple and dealing with NeXT and Pixar. Personally I think he did an amazing job once back at Apple and at Pixar, but it sounds like there were at least some hiccups at Next and the first time around at Apple. That's not to excuse Elon of anything, except to say that it must be tough to be pushing the boundaries. But at some point you do have to admit that you need to be profitable, and then figure out how to do it. From the bleachers it sure seams like Tesla should be able to manage to make a profit if they have all these orders lined up and just need to get the cars out at a decent rate. It's all about the scale-up. But they haven't. I'll look forward to reading that cnbc article sometime. Looks like the site just doesn't want to serve anything up right now. Something also about the scale-up?
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