JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 10, 2012 19:49:22 GMT -8
If this were a Friday, we'd blame this pegging at 530ish on something. Even on Mondays it can have an effect. Stk Calls Puts 520 844 4,743 525 1,508 4,390 530 2,726 4,613 535 3,023 2,171 540 5,958 2,855 And BTW, the estimate average ($13.32) and whisper number ($13.45) are currently below the last year's Q1 ($13.87), so that might be part of the fear issue. Hard to imagine a scenario where Apple's EPS is lower YoY, but only Cook knows for sure.
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Post by jcaron on Dec 10, 2012 19:53:58 GMT -8
If this were a Friday, we'd blame this pegging at 530ish on something. Even on Mondays it can have an effect. Stk Calls Puts 520 844 4,743 525 1,508 4,390 530 2,726 4,613 535 3,023 2,171 540 5,958 2,855 And BTW, the estimate average ($13.32) and whisper number ($13.45) are currently below the last year's Q1 ($13.87), so that might be part of the fear issue. Hard to imagine a scenario where Apple's EPS is lower YoY, but only Cook knows for sure. Assuming WS is not smart enough to normalize for the additional week last year....... Ummm, never mind. That isn't going to happen :-(
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Post by qualitywte on Dec 10, 2012 20:08:06 GMT -8
It looks like every analyst is predicting that Apple will beat Q1 guidance. I hope that the stock can hold up until then. If individual investors start running for the exit now, the situation will get real ugly. The situation is ugly now!
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Mav
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Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Dec 10, 2012 20:09:40 GMT -8
Guidance is 11.75. last year they beat it by 49%. Expect this year for them to beat it by 35% and I am very conservative with room to be beaten by another 10%. Your 35 % conservative number is higher than my blowout numbers. My early baseline has the "beat factor" at 22% over EPS. But who knows, things have been weird this year. And for apples to apples comparisons - WS must normalize year-to-year EPS (the smart money will). Even if they believe Oppenheimer and assume 1/14 of revs and EPS in the extra fiscal week, which I regard as typical Oppenheimer sandbagging.
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Post by fas550 on Dec 10, 2012 20:10:02 GMT -8
If this were a Friday, we'd blame this pegging at 530ish on something. Even on Mondays it can have an effect. Stk Calls Puts 520 844 4,743 525 1,508 4,390 530 2,726 4,613 535 3,023 2,171 540 5,958 2,855 And BTW, the estimate average ($13.32) and whisper number ($13.45) are currently below the last year's Q1 ($13.87), so that might be part of the fear issue. Hard to imagine a scenario where Apple's EPS is lower YoY, but only Cook knows for sure. The average beat of the est for the last 3 Q1s is 44% (76, 19, 36). The est vs the whisper for this qtr is 17 and some change. New products, new form factor on a refresh, new markets.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on Dec 10, 2012 20:42:56 GMT -8
If this were a Friday, we'd blame this pegging at 530ish on something. Even on Mondays it can have an effect. Stk Calls Puts 520 844 4,743 525 1,508 4,390 530 2,726 4,613 535 3,023 2,171 540 5,958 2,855 And BTW, the estimate average ($13.32) and whisper number ($13.45) are currently below the last year's Q1 ($13.87), so that might be part of the fear issue. Hard to imagine a scenario where Apple's EPS is lower YoY, but only Cook knows for sure. Obviously we need Q1 to be at least 13.87 to keep TTM earnings from going down. Interesting that average estimate is below that point. TTM earnings haven't gone down in a LONG time, at least since before 2007.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 10, 2012 21:12:34 GMT -8
Obviously we need Q1 to be at least 13.87 to keep TTM earnings from going down. Interesting that average estimate is below that point. TTM earnings haven't gone down in a LONG time, at least since before 2007. That in itself is to me the biggest reason we have suffered so much. Peter guided, $2 below the YOY. I had felt that he was $1ish light with guidance. With the last few quarters results, WS is not taking any chances. You have to realize that WS consensus was well over $15 before Oct earnings. As long as we come in over the $13.87 from last year we should be fine. That is unless Peter says something like $9 for Q2. UGH. The AT&T number did not help our cause. I know the phone launched in more countries earlier, maybe that impacted T's numbers. This is aggravating because nobody in the media is talking about normalizing the quarter. I do not understand why Apple shoved as much as they did into the quarter last year, it was very unnecessary. Apple could have come in around $12.50 and it still would have had the same result.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 10, 2012 21:14:37 GMT -8
Your 35 % conservative number is higher than my blowout numbers. Considering your fantastic track record, I agree with you. ;D
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Mav
Member
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Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Dec 10, 2012 21:17:34 GMT -8
The Steve Jobs transition took time.
iPhone 4S was delayed, and a certain someone who's now a temporary advisor to Tim Cook may have been a big reason.
The Tim Cook transition also took time (but hey, at least we know he means business!)
Apple is a world-best, but even it has its mistakes and adjustment periods.
Many of us should've traded AAPL better given the bumps in the road and the signs we should have seen. Nothing much else to it. Just gotta live 'n learn.
Btw, if enough of us or enough of the influentials bring it up, we can at least get PED to talk apples-to-apples normalization at some point. It's a good start at the least.
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Post by payrolldude on Dec 10, 2012 21:19:44 GMT -8
That is one amazing thief. Managed to steal a phone that does not exist yet. The plural of iPhone 5 is iPhone 5s. The plural of iPhone 5S is iPhone 5Ses. The plural of "Spouse" is "Spice"
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 10, 2012 21:49:02 GMT -8
The plural of iPhone 5 is iPhone 5s. The plural of iPhone 5S is iPhone 5Ses. The plural of "Spouse" is "Spice" See, now you are going to get me in trouble. I am going to have a hard time not elaborating on the "plural" spouse thing. ;D
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Post by jdrizzo89 on Dec 10, 2012 22:30:43 GMT -8
For context, you gotta have the year-ago compare... ...which might not exist, per a quick archive search for stuff on the 4S's initial reception in China. Pretty sure 4S pre orders were 200,000 last year If so 50% increase...
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Post by Apple II+ on Dec 11, 2012 0:26:15 GMT -8
The plural of iPhone 5 is iPhone 5s. The plural of iPhone 5S is iPhone 5Ses. The plural of "Spouse" is "Spice" LOL. That made it all worthwhile.
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Post by flyonthewall on Dec 11, 2012 0:37:26 GMT -8
From The Point Daily, just a headline: Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) Ready To Ship 27ich iMac Orders, Arrival Expected In December
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 11, 2012 0:43:37 GMT -8
Even on Mondays it can have an effect. Stk Calls Puts 520 844 4,743 525 1,508 4,390 530 2,726 4,613 535 3,023 2,171 540 5,958 2,855 And BTW, the estimate average ($13.32) and whisper number ($13.45) are currently below the last year's Q1 ($13.87), so that might be part of the fear issue. Hard to imagine a scenario where Apple's EPS is lower YoY, but only Cook knows for sure. Obviously we need Q1 to be at least 13.87 to keep TTM earnings from going down. Interesting that average estimate is below that point. TTM earnings haven't gone down in a LONG time, at least since before 2007. It's been 9 years, according to this article that was the inspiration for my original post: Apple's Profit To Fall For The First Time In 9 Years In Q4Never heard of this guy Fontevecchia, but he's just using the math as I laid out.
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Post by Big Al on Dec 11, 2012 1:20:24 GMT -8
Obviously we need Q1 to be at least 13.87 to keep TTM earnings from going down. Interesting that average estimate is below that point. TTM earnings haven't gone down in a LONG time, at least since before 2007. It's been 9 years, according to this article that was the inspiration for my original post: Apple's Profit To Fall For The First Time In 9 Years In Q4Never heard of this guy Fontevecchia, but he's just using the math as I laid out. And as I would expect, no mention of the difference between last year (14 weeks) and this year (13 weeks).
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