Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Aug 16, 2018 2:23:04 GMT -8
Good morning everyone. Asia is RED this morning while Europe and the US are GREEN. AAPL is nicely GREEN, trading at $211.35 +1.11 (0.53%). A nice followup to yesterday. In the news: Yahoo Finance has Call of the Day: Apple. "Apple will reach a two trillion dollar market cap through its services business, an augmented reality headset, and an Apple Car." Reuters via Yahoo has Apple accused of pressuring game rivals in Japan . Have a great day. Let's make money. Attachments:
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Post by dmiller on Aug 16, 2018 3:00:28 GMT -8
Buckle up.
And we haven't even had the expected wave of target price upgrades yet.
****
Remember, not that long ago (for those who have a long term view and holdings), when some analyst put a price target of $275, or maybe it was $300 on AAPL? (But the more I think, $275 sounds right)
At that time, that price target was a significant outlier, and would have been a large % change from where AAPL was trading.
Some people, maybe even many, believed this price target could happen; it made a great deal of news and was widely debated. At the time.
Remember?
(waiting for the punchline?)
..........
/edit - The punchline was, this ridiculously low price target was all over the news before the 7:1 split, during the last “AAPL Great Depression”, when the price tanked from around $700 to the upper $300’s, and then had recovered somewhat into the mid 400’s or a little higher. Even as AAPL struggled to recover amidst the FUD and mockery and it lumbered around, conventional wisdom said that AAPL was done. Lots written about how it was going to be like Microsoft and would never rise above the 400’s again. And then this idiot (someone dig up the name) prominently slapped his sub 300 target on and loudly proclaimed that AAPL was way overvalued and was going down, just watch.
In hindsight - ridiculous ^ 2.
So I think we will hit that $275 after all.
(Times 7)
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benoir
fire starter
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Posts: 1,324
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Post by benoir on Aug 16, 2018 4:52:25 GMT -8
So if the market wants to maintain the same P/E ratio (currently 19 ttm) then at $275 the EPS would have to be about $14.5. An EPS of $14.5 may be too ambitious. Conversely a P/E of 19 may be too low. I’d be comfortable with AAPL having a P/E of up to 24. And if that were the case then an EPS of $11.5 the share price is $275. As the market factors in the service side potential and the almost subscription like model that is the iPhone then hopefully we will get a bettor multiple. On the other side of the coin I’m hoping Apple is hoovering up as many shares as possible while they are relatively cheap.
....pre-market....’wheeeeee’
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Post by artman1033 on Aug 16, 2018 5:34:16 GMT -8
AAPL ALL TIME HIGH!$211.96All Time Highest TODAY intraday + 1 TRILLION!
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Post by artman1033 on Aug 16, 2018 5:36:41 GMT -8
AAPL ALL TIME HIGH!$211.95All Time Highest TODAY PRE-MARKET + 1 TRILLION!
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Aug 16, 2018 5:38:50 GMT -8
Love the open, but mindful of gaps... and high RSI...
IMHO what will save AAPL (and us) will be the inevitable upgrades from the many analysts with targets below $210. 😉
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benoir
fire starter
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Posts: 1,324
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Post by benoir on Aug 16, 2018 5:44:47 GMT -8
Wow... A fair bit of green out there But it really does feel like a sentiment change for AAPL
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Post by artman1033 on Aug 16, 2018 6:17:24 GMT -8
AAPL ALL TIME HIGH!$212.45All Time Highest TODAY intraday + 1 TRILLION!
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Aug 16, 2018 7:24:59 GMT -8
In the words of our MIA female founder, I’m honored to write, “WheeeEeee!!”
What a nice day it is to be on the AAPL bus...
$213+ right now!
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Post by dmiller on Aug 16, 2018 7:27:57 GMT -8
"Pros and Cons of owning Apple Stock"Not really FUD, but painfully superficial. There's really *nothing* about why AAPL is where it is, and where it's going. All we get under "pros" are things like, Buffet, and growth stats, and services growth stats. Seriously? Cons, we get things like, he doesn't like that Apple now carries debt, and, "legal troubles" with Qualcomm. This is a reasonable-sounding article that contains nicely worded content that is, in fact, abysmal. He doesn't understand what he's talking about. "Debt" is not a problem. They issued that debt at bargain-basement rates and it would be financially imprudent for them to pay it off now just for the sake of doing so. And the reason for the debt (which he either doesn't know much about or just decided not to talk about) was to fund the buybacks and the dividends when all the money was tied up off-shore; which is no longer the case. "Legal troubles" with Qualcomm is not a problem - at least, not for Apple. For QUALCOMM, yes, it's a problem. (ha)
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mark
fire starter
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Post by mark on Aug 16, 2018 7:51:24 GMT -8
"Pros and Cons of owning Apple Stock""Debt" is not a problem. They issued that debt at bargain-basement rates and it would be financially imprudent for them to pay it off now just for the sake of doing so. And the reason for the debt (which he either doesn't know much about or just decided not to talk about) was to fund the buybacks and the dividends when all the money was tied up off-shore; which is no longer the case. Not to mention that much of the early debt is net-net a negative cost due to the dividends that the debt retired! Especially now that the dividend has increased a number of times.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,432
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Post by chinacat on Aug 16, 2018 7:57:27 GMT -8
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Post by artman1033 on Aug 16, 2018 8:07:41 GMT -8
AAPL ALL TIME HIGH!$213.53All Time Highest TODAY intraday + 1 TRILLION!
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Post by robertspangey on Aug 16, 2018 8:30:40 GMT -8
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Aug 16, 2018 8:59:11 GMT -8
No, and I didn't realize that Horace was hooking up with Daniel E. Dilger of Apple Insider "fame" for this event. That's quite a vote of approval from Horace for the semi-sensationalist but usually pretty darned accurate commentator/writer. www.ped30.com/2018/08/16/apple-dediu-dilger/
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Post by artman1033 on Aug 16, 2018 11:19:46 GMT -8
AAPL ALL TIME HIGH!$213.81All Time Highest TODAY intraday + 1 TRILLION!
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Post by artman1033 on Aug 16, 2018 12:02:06 GMT -8
AAPL ALL TIME HIGH!$213.81All Time Highest TODAY intraday 27,316,728 shares traded today +$1 TRILLION
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Post by Luckychoices on Aug 16, 2018 12:14:36 GMT -8
No, and I didn't realize that Horace was hooking up with Daniel E. Dilger of Apple Insider "fame" for this event. That's quite a vote of approval from Horace for the semi-sensationalist but usually pretty darned accurate commentator/writer. www.ped30.com/2018/08/16/apple-dediu-dilger/ Part of the text at your link listed Random Dediu aphorisms and a couple of his aphorisms dealt with cars: • It’s not interesting to build 100,000 cars. It gets interesting at 1 million cars.
• My worry is that these guys at Apple — Jony Ive, Eddy Cue — they love cars. My worry is that they’re so fixated on cars that they’re not seeing the micromobility story. (Dediu is certain that today’s automobiles will be disrupted by something that looks more like a bicycle. Fancy helmet optional.)
There were only 3 comments when I checked out the article but one was from a guy whose name seems familiar. I just can't seem to remember where I've seen his name previously. I do seem to remember that he was a big car enthusiast at the time. Gregg_Thurman@me.com said: I see vehicles in the future being marketed as a service as opposed to ownership. The service will cost less than ownership (monthly) and your vehicle is always clean and functioning perfectly. Age of the vehicle will determine the monthly charge. Those that prefer more amenities will do as they do today – they’ll pay more.
When I was driving my monthly cost of ownership (payment, registration, insurance, gas, oil, etc.) was about $800/month.
I see this because today my primary mode of transportation is Uber. I spend about $300/month vs the $800 I used to spend, and I never worry about traffic jams, destination parking, or having an extra glass of wine (or two) with dinner. My garage is now a workshop.
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Post by BillH on Aug 16, 2018 15:14:48 GMT -8
No, and I didn't realize that Horace was hooking up with Daniel E. Dilger of Apple Insider "fame" for this event. That's quite a vote of approval from Horace for the semi-sensationalist but usually pretty darned accurate commentator/writer. www.ped30.com/2018/08/16/apple-dediu-dilger/ Part of the text at your link listed Random Dediu aphorisms and a couple of his aphorisms dealt with cars: • It’s not interesting to build 100,000 cars. It gets interesting at 1 million cars.
• My worry is that these guys at Apple — Jony Ive, Eddy Cue — they love cars. My worry is that they’re so fixated on cars that they’re not seeing the micromobility story. (Dediu is certain that today’s automobiles will be disrupted by something that looks more like a bicycle. Fancy helmet optional.)
There were only 3 comments when I checked out the article but one was from a guy whose name seems familiar. I just can't seem to remember where I've seen his name previously. I do seem to remember that he was a big car enthusiast at the time. Gregg_Thurman@me.com said: I see vehicles in the future being marketed as a service as opposed to ownership. The service will cost less than ownership (monthly) and your vehicle is always clean and functioning perfectly. Age of the vehicle will determine the monthly charge. Those that prefer more amenities will do as they do today – they’ll pay more.
When I was driving my monthly cost of ownership (payment, registration, insurance, gas, oil, etc.) was about $800/month.
I see this because today my primary mode of transportation is Uber. I spend about $300/month vs the $800 I used to spend, and I never worry about traffic jams, destination parking, or having an extra glass of wine (or two) with dinner. My garage is now a workshop.
I think Gregg is totally correct. I just don't know how long we are from that kind of reality where you punch a button on your iPhone app and the car (driverless) is waiting for you outside. I don't worry even a little about the "car guy" in Jony or Mark getting in the way of their native intelligence. I do think it will make for a better vehicle though. Horace must be spending a lot of time in moderate climates. Both the cold in Minnesota and the heat in Florida make something that looks like a bicycle a non-starter for many.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,189
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Post by JDSoCal on Aug 16, 2018 15:29:40 GMT -8
"Pros and Cons of owning Apple Stock""Debt" is not a problem. They issued that debt at bargain-basement rates and it would be financially imprudent for them to pay it off now just for the sake of doing so. And the reason for the debt (which he either doesn't know much about or just decided not to talk about) was to fund the buybacks and the dividends when all the money was tied up off-shore; which is no longer the case. Not to mention that much of the early debt is net-net a negative cost due to the dividends that the debt retired! Especially now that the dividend has increased a number of times. Recall, Apple was approaching half its revenues overseas, but facing the ridiculous foreign tax repatriation penalty. Tim and Luca bet that, eventually, that foreign money would be repatriated under a reasonable president after Obama (I doubt they ever thought it would be DJT!), and thus calculated that temporarily borrowing at the time with very low rates for buybacks and dividends was better than paying the huge tax penalty up front and using foreign cash flow. And they were totally vindicated in this gambit. The foreign tax rates were lowered to reasonable levels, and the debt can be easily paid down, and as Mark said, not having the dividend payments from the retired shares more than made up for the interest on the debt. And shareholders were treated as the actual owners of the company and finally paid some of Apple's massive profits as they should be during this time. This is some fairly advanced accounting, and of course the average bozo like Will Ashworth cannot understand it. I did a similar thing when buying my home in 2015. Rather than sell Apple shares and pay the opportunity cost of potential capital gains, I took a margin loan against my shares at a low rate (under 2%). Well, Apple is up 70% since then (while the value of my home is up about 13% not counting commissions). Had I sold the shares to buy the house, I'd be an assload poorer right now just to avoid a little interest and the scary boogeyman of debt on what is merely a secured loan (just like Apple's debt was). My brokerage account with my Apple shares is now worth more than it was before I bought the house. Anyway, weeeee, ATH!
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Post by deasys on Aug 16, 2018 16:21:24 GMT -8
The punchline was, this ridiculously low price target was all over the news before the 7:1 split, during the last “AAPL Great Depression”, when the price tanked from around $700 to the upper $300’s, and then had recovered somewhat into the mid 400’s or a little higher…And then this idiot (someone dig up the name) prominently slapped his sub 300 target on and loudly proclaimed that AAPL was way overvalued and was going down, just watch. That was the great Ed Zabitsky, potentially the world's most prescient analyst! I sincerely hope his prediction comes to fruition in the near to mid future… fortune.com/2013/03/07/lets-revisit-ed-zabitskys-270-per-share-apple-price-target/
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