Since84
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Post by Since84 on Nov 5, 2018 3:13:32 GMT -8
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Post by appledoc on Nov 5, 2018 3:38:21 GMT -8
Well, the Apple story must be over now. Been through this time and again. Just creating a better buying opportunity.
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benoir
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Post by benoir on Nov 5, 2018 4:17:16 GMT -8
Someone over at PED commented that Apple can resume buyback today. Is this the case? If I were Luca i’d be employing some of that lucre and take advantage of some low hanging fruit.
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Nov 5, 2018 5:11:39 GMT -8
One of the upshots of Apple choosing not to report unit sales is that we will see an increase in FUD. See the Reuters story, above.
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Nov 5, 2018 5:16:54 GMT -8
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Nov 5, 2018 6:02:19 GMT -8
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Nov 5, 2018 6:20:08 GMT -8
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Post by gtrplyr on Nov 5, 2018 6:29:10 GMT -8
And we wonder why Apple will no longer divulge breakdown numbers ... sheesh. How many times can they run the same story until people come to their senses?
The bigger story here is the 237 Billion in cash that Apple is giving back to us shareholders, how on earth WS disregards that figure is beyond me.
Anxious to see how we end today, so far it's looking like another rough week ahead but that just means Apple can buy back more shares .... so I'm not concerned.
Apple has owned previous Christmas sales and will do so again ... there is NO fundamental change to this story.
Cheers to the longs.
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Post by hledgard on Nov 5, 2018 6:40:33 GMT -8
I still say Apple should report unit sales. It is interesting, and a factor in judging whether to hold onto one's stock. The facts are not FUD.
The declining projections for the iPhone does not bother me at all. It had to happen. It is normal. Also, people switch from Android to Apple, not the other way around. So Apple holds strong.
Also I would like to know how the new MacBook Air does.
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Post by rmhe1999 on Nov 5, 2018 7:19:24 GMT -8
Anyone want to chime in from a TA perspective about potential support areas now? I tried to BTFD, but it keeps dipping.... :-)
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Nov 5, 2018 7:25:55 GMT -8
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Post by artman1033 on Nov 5, 2018 8:00:02 GMT -8
AND NOW: 5,213,840,000 shares of common stock, par value $0.00001 per share, issued and outstanding as of April 21, 2017 32,700,000 reduction Luca Maestri: We returned over $10 billion to investors during the quarter. We paid $3 billion in dividends and equivalents, and we spent $4 billion on repurchases of 31.1 million Apple shares through open market transactions. We also launched a new $3 billion ASR, resulting in initial delivery and retirement of 17.5 million shares. And we retired 6.3 million shares upon the completion of our ninth accelerated share repurchase program in February. All these activities contributed to a net diluted share count reduction of 66.3 million shares in the quarter. We have now completed $211.2 billion of our $250 billion capital return program, including $151 billion in share repurchases. As Tim mentioned, today we're announcing an update to our program, which we are extending by four quarters through March of 2019, and increasing in size to a total of $300 billion. Once again, given our strong confidence in Apple's future and the value we see in our stock, we are allocating the majority of the program expansion to share repurchases. Our board has increased the share repurchase authorization by $35 billion, raising it from the current $175 billion level to $210 billion. We will also continue to net share settle vesting employees' restricted stock units. LUCA: We also returned $11.7 billion to investors during the quarter. We paid $3.4 billion in dividends and equivalents and spent $4.5 billion on repurchases of 30.4 million Apple shares through open market transactions. We launched a new $3 billion ASR program, resulting in initial delivery and retirement of 15.6 million shares, and we retired 3.4 million shares upon the completion of our 10th ASR during the quarter. We have now completed $222.9 billion of our $300 billion capital return program, including $158.5 billion in share repurchases. seekingalpha.com/article/4093437-apple-aapl-q3-2017-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single5,165,228,000 shares of common stock, par value $0.00001 per share, issued and outstanding as of July 21, 2017 www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000032019317000009/a10-qq32017712017.htm5,134,312,000 shares of common stock were issued and outstanding as of October 20, 2017. www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000032019317000070/a10-k20179302017.htm30,916,000 share reduction. 5,074,013,000 shares of common stock, par value $0.00001 per share, issued and outstanding as of January 19, 2018 www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000032019318000007/a10-qq1201812302017.htm60,299,000 share reduction 4,915,138,000 shares of common stock, par value $0.00001 per share, issued and outstanding as of April 20, 2018 HERE 4,829,926,000 shares of common stock, par value $0.00001 per share, issued and outstanding as of July 20, 2018 here85,212,000 share reduction
4,745,398,000 shares of common stock were issued and outstanding as of October 26, 2018. here
84,528,000 share reduction as always, PLEASE check my math!!
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Nov 5, 2018 8:10:48 GMT -8
With 4,745,398,000 shares outstanding, $1T is now up to $210.73.
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Post by gtrplyr on Nov 5, 2018 8:11:14 GMT -8
Remember Buffett saying he would buy as much Apple as possible? I'm quite certain they are in buy mode as if nothing else, Buffett can spot a bargain when he sees it! Between people like that and Apple themselves there is plenty of interest to buy .... once again NOTHING has changed in the fundamentals .... just a bunch of nervous "investors" who think they can all time the markets and treat WS like a gigantic casino ... most will not do well. Buy and hold ! Cheers to the longs
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Post by joel90069 on Nov 5, 2018 8:18:07 GMT -8
Well, the Apple story must be over now. Been through this time and again. Just creating a better buying opportunity. I don’t know why anyone would listen to Nikkei. They have been repeatedly wrong. I am, however, worried about how well the XR is really going to do. Apple is known for premium branding. By choosing one of those colors that differentiate them from the XS and Max you’re screaming “I bought the cheaper one.” Or “I don’t deserve the more expensive model.” I think our demographic will be turned off by that.
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Nov 5, 2018 8:28:54 GMT -8
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Nov 5, 2018 9:11:03 GMT -8
I am, however, worried about how well the XR is really going to do. Apple is known for premium branding. By choosing one of those colors that differentiate them from the XS and Max you’re screaming “I bought the cheaper one.” Or “I don’t deserve the more expensive model.” I think our demographic will be turned off by that. The "color problem" is easily fixed with a case, but for many folks who are not as fortunate as the investors in this forum, buying any iPhone carries more prestige than a cheaper Android (if that is even their objective), so there is no "shame" involved. I also wonder what "our demographic" means to you. I know plenty of folks, including our sons, who have not been as blessed as we have by our investment in Apple, but who nonetheless are iPhone owners.
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Post by gtrplyr on Nov 5, 2018 9:17:36 GMT -8
iPhone XR is NOTHING to be embarrassed about. I have a iPhoneX and the technology in it is amazing ... face id is worth the price of admission and it works flawlessly.
Like the "Cat" said ... a case will fix any issue ... and you get a lot of tech for $799 .... I have no doubt people will/are loving the XR.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 5, 2018 11:08:36 GMT -8
I don’t know why anyone would listen to Nikkei. They have been repeatedly wrong. I am, however, worried about how well the XR is really going to do. Apple is known for premium branding. By choosing one of those colors that differentiate them from the XS and Max you’re screaming “I bought the cheaper one.” Or “I don’t deserve the more expensive model.” I think our demographic will be turned off by that. I don't see why they (news site running rumors) have to be wrong about not firing up extra production lines. I'm sure Apple tries to hedge their bets, saving their space for extra production lines in case they need it, due to huge demand, or just as likely due to production lines at another company not doing what they need to. If there's a hiccup at one of the two plants making them, you want a backup. A deposit or whatnot to have space ready if needed is a good thing. Since this type of headline has come up repeatedly, while Apple has still had good numbers, I'd be apt to think that this is the sort of thing that's been going on. On the iPhone XR, I'm sure some that are overly worried of their image may only want the highest end model. For better or worse, that's not something that has affected me much. I try to use something up before getting rid of it, as the collection of (stylish?) WWDC 2004 shirts in my closet points to. I'm still using an old iPhone 5S, but do plan to upgrade even though I just put a replacement battery into it a week ago. But the way I see it, the XR is plenty of an upgrade, with the same chip as the other new models, and 4 times the memory of my current one. The screen is not the very best you could buy, but much better than my current daily driver, while also using less power than the OLED options. But frankly while I can afford the highest end model, I'm still astonished that I haven't broken one of my iPhones in the last 8-9 years. Its always with me, whether I'm mountain biking, hiking, or skiing, or things like splitting wood, cutting logs, moving rocks, or whatnot. Given the number of cracked screens I see, I'm sure mine will at some point, since while I might be more careful with mine, I also am often doing rougher things with higher potential for damage. Thus, I see the $250 or whatever saved now as a downpayment towards the next one, if iPhone tragedy should strike. OTOH as an investor, I've wondered about how the product mix has affected AAPL related numbers. One huge plus is that this "settling for the non-top model" still gets the consumer to pay more than last year's "nearly top model". But the other thing has been the consistency of gross margins over time. Over the last 11 quarters, Apple has had gross margins within half a percent of the current 38.3%. Adding in another 15 quarters before that, so 26 quarters, or 6.5 years, the GM has stayed in the 37.0-40.0% range. Given that, I think Apple has done a great job of maintaining individual product margins across a variety of products, and I expect that they are making roughly the same margins on XR's as the XS and XS Max, though I could see a larger percentage of buyers of the highest end models paying extra for more high-margin memory upgrades. But that's the thing that Apple is pushing these days. While product sales are important, the most important thing is growing the overall user base. This happens at all pricing levels, and also with used or remanufactured units. And with extended upgrade cycles, where a user or family continues using a unit for longer. These in turn make future sales, but as services matter more and more, the more overall users you have, the better. While older iPhones and iPads may continue working and doing a decent job, at some point they may become music players (sell a service), or just need more room for storing or backing up all the pictures (sell a service). It's the long game instead of the short game. And that's something that Apple, especially with a chunk of money in it's pocket, can and has focused on. Though keep in mind that they were certain to separate out cash ($237.1B) from net cash ($122.6B) this quarter, reminding people that another longer term goal is to become net cash neutral. The long game is going to have it's ups and downs. But I imagine Apple will sell plenty of all 3 of the current X series iPhones, and I still think it's likely that AAPL will be higher in 6 months than it is now, and even be setting some models ATH's. Time will tell...
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ono
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Post by ono on Nov 5, 2018 11:54:58 GMT -8
At what prices will APPL buyback this quarter? See enclosure, last quarter July $192, Aug $214. Sept $222. FY 18 bought $73B shares. End of year, still $123B in cash, only down $30B. Still $70B approved in plan to go.
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Nov 5, 2018 12:10:07 GMT -8
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Post by nwjade on Nov 5, 2018 12:13:34 GMT -8
I'm long Apple since 2006 and continue be believe in the future of the company.
They're transitioning to higher margin services.
Can someone help me understand why gross margin is going down? IE from 6/30/18 to 9/30/18 it went from 38.34% to 38.29%
With services reaching $10b up from $7.9b year over year for a 27% increase, shouldn't gross margins be moving up?
What am I missing?
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Nov 5, 2018 13:05:13 GMT -8
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Post by carbonate24 on Nov 5, 2018 13:18:49 GMT -8
Kevin O'Leary....a great example of a weak hand.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 5, 2018 13:22:35 GMT -8
I'm long Apple since 2006 and continue be believe in the future of the company. They're transitioning to higher margin services. Can someone help me understand why gross margin is going down? IE from 6/30/18 to 9/30/18 it went from 38.34% to 38.29% With services reaching $10b up from $7.9b year over year for a 27% increase, shouldn't gross margins be moving up? What am I missing? I don't think a change in GM of 0.05% is statistically relevant. When I just looked back over quarterly results, I was surprised with how consistent Apple's GM's have been. As I just said a few posts ago, though buried in the middle of a bunch of drivel, : But the other thing has been the consistency of gross margins over time. Over the last 11 quarters, Apple has had gross margins within half a percent of the current 38.3%. Adding in another 15 quarters before that, so 26 quarters, or 6.5 years, the GM has stayed in the 37.0-40.0% range. Given that, I think Apple has done a great job of maintaining individual product margins across a variety of products That's pretty darned consistent! But I see what you're getting at, as to why the needle hasn't moved at all, or dipped just a tad in the unexpected direction. I'm guessing they're still scaling up, throwing any extra profit/margin from that area into employees to add features, equipment, or even buying music/tv/movies. That would help explain how they could be so consistent, by paying for extras along the way, opportunistically.
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Post by tuffett on Nov 5, 2018 14:05:13 GMT -8
Apple stock was 22% higher between end of June and end of September. This coincides with the 22% increase in the value of Buffet’s stake. The conclusion is that he bought no additional shares in the last quarter. That’s probably why the stock didn’t see the traditional Buffett bump we’ve come to expect.
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Post by tuffett on Nov 5, 2018 14:07:44 GMT -8
I'm long Apple since 2006 and continue be believe in the future of the company. They're transitioning to higher margin services. Can someone help me understand why gross margin is going down? IE from 6/30/18 to 9/30/18 it went from 38.34% to 38.29% With services reaching $10b up from $7.9b year over year for a 27% increase, shouldn't gross margins be moving up? What am I missing? My main concern as well, especially considering this includes a massive increase to iPhone ASPs.
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Post by carbonate24 on Nov 5, 2018 15:22:58 GMT -8
I'm long Apple since 2006 and continue be believe in the future of the company. They're transitioning to higher margin services. Can someone help me understand why gross margin is going down? IE from 6/30/18 to 9/30/18 it went from 38.34% to 38.29% With services reaching $10b up from $7.9b year over year for a 27% increase, shouldn't gross margins be moving up? What am I missing? My main concern as well, especially considering this includes a massive increase to iPhone ASPs. I don’t know the answer either, but does anyone wish to wager a guess? Perhaps the line of X phones has a much lower profit margin than its predecessors. Maybe the services business is still too small to make a dent in the overall margins. I mean even with 10Bn in revenue (using the App Store as an example), say Aapl keeps 30% of that. We’re ‘only’ at 3Bn in income. Even if that margin is in the high 90’s, it just may not be moving the needle as much as we’d want or expect. Just a thought.
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ono
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Post by ono on Nov 5, 2018 16:11:59 GMT -8
Margin is an ingrediant to a whole picture of financial strength. There have been regular arguments that Apple ought to surrender some margin in exchange for greater revenue or market share. I'm not knocking margin, but I think they've a good handle on the business.
For a company this massive, having been defying the law-of-large-numbers (arguments) for years, having great margins w/ balanced increasing revenues, has been yielding great profits and EPS growth. The free cash flow is amazing. I look at the financial engineering criticism. Then I look at everything else.
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Post by carbonate24 on Nov 5, 2018 16:12:23 GMT -8
Any one else do some dip buying today? I picked up some more shares between 200-202, but I missed the sub-200 dip. Kept a little dry powder in case there is another big plunge tomorrow. Never know when some clown is going to release a note about supply chain worries or other nonsense.
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