Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
|
Post by Since84 on Jan 3, 2019 3:20:19 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by redinaustin on Jan 3, 2019 3:47:39 GMT -8
Two comments about trade wars
1. A neophyte probably should not start trade wars with veterans.
2. Always try to engage in trade wars with opponents who have a shorter planning horizon; never a significantly longer one.
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Jan 3, 2019 4:13:39 GMT -8
There's a gap at 120-127 that was never filled. Going to sheepishly exit my position today and wait to see what happens.
|
|
|
Post by tuffett on Jan 3, 2019 4:52:02 GMT -8
No need to rush in to this. With the macroeconomics and what is almost certain to be piss poor guidance next quarter, there could be plenty more downside ahead.
|
|
Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
|
Post by Since84 on Jan 3, 2019 5:01:56 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by dmiller on Jan 3, 2019 5:52:51 GMT -8
Comparing to Nokia is a red herring. Nokia struggled, crashed, and burned (like RIM/Blackberry, Motorola, and others) because they didn’t have the technical chops for hardware and software that would compete with the iPhone. Plain and simple. They couldn’t develop a real mobile OS or UI/interaction model, touch screen UI, App Store and 3rd party apps, ecosystem, integration of hardware/software, their own chip design, etc etc. It’s easy to compare Apple to failures like that, but easy doesn’t mean it’s accurate in any way.
|
|
|
Post by hledgard on Jan 3, 2019 6:17:30 GMT -8
The Yahoo article seems particularly telling. I do believe Apple is facing stiffer smartphone competition everywhere.
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Jan 3, 2019 6:37:04 GMT -8
Honestly, there will be rounds of PT adjustments and the guidance won’t be great as we all know. Need to let this thing settle.
|
|
chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
|
Post by chinacat on Jan 3, 2019 6:43:45 GMT -8
I'm getting a little tired of the "Apple can't innovate anymore" meme. Face ID has been out for more than a year, and there is no equivalent elsewhere. Are there any competitors for AirPods? I haven't seen one, but I don't follow that market closely. And we all know the VR glasses are coming, and I will be surprised if they are not instantly the market leader; the only question there is how big the market will likely be.
Those of us long term investors have been through this before. Hoping for the next iPhone, which birthed an entire industry of new mobile phone products is likely unrealistic, as the "always with me, and able to perform a plethora of tasks" nature of the device is unlikely to be replicated. But there is still much profit to be reaped by Apple in that space, and I for one am not counting them out.
|
|
chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
|
Post by chinacat on Jan 3, 2019 6:45:09 GMT -8
Honestly, there will be rounds of PT adjustments and the guidance won’t be great as we all know. Need to let this thing settle. Nice to know that you are still with us, phoebear! Hope all is well with you.
|
|
|
Post by audiosculpture12 on Jan 3, 2019 6:57:13 GMT -8
The innovation issue is perplexing. Sometimes it feels as though the analysts can make other believe it if they simply decry it enough - whereas for me the evidence of incremental innovation is quite strong.
I am very concerned about how low we go here, and am certainly kicking myself for not having cashed in back in august. But as Phoebear says - we've all been 'here' before.
|
|
|
Post by gtrplyr on Jan 3, 2019 7:49:37 GMT -8
Apple warns to roughly 5-7 Billion less in revenue and the market has currently knocked off a little over 70 Billion from market cap just today. Today is not a day to defend Apple ... lots of choices were made that, in retrospect look suspect but perspective should be maintained and it's clearly not.
I have no idea what to say at this point but my portfolio has been decimated .... I'm just going to hunker down and lick my wounds.
I will say this: I have no idea how we can have a meaningful forum from here on out without discussing the WH's trade war .... it is the single most relevant thing driving the markets at this point. I'd hope we can do it in a somewhat civil manner but I fear that may be impossible.
Good luck to all ......
EDIT: Just to add ... since when has AAPL had a multiple that looked anything like a "growth" stock? Dinging a stock with a PE in the single digits for lack of growth is just absurd and the re-adjustment on the guide is really not a huge number ... the sky is not falling. Of course most of us on this forum already know this ... WS is either too stupid or simply does not care but I'd like to see more analysts come out talking about this ....
|
|
Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
|
Post by Since84 on Jan 3, 2019 8:10:47 GMT -8
You don't have losses unless you sell.
Which is not to suggest you shouldn't if your judgement of the fundamentals has changed.
|
|
|
Post by macprof on Jan 3, 2019 8:24:49 GMT -8
Well now we know that Apple's estimates for upcoming quarters will be met as usual, and if they realize otherwise, they will advise their shareholders. Lately, they've proven to be extremely accurate, if not a little conservative. With the drop from $230, this further drop to accommodate a relatively small drop in guidance is completely unjustified. I think the WSJ and CNBC are piling on to give WS an even better position to back up the trucks to while the majority are panicking and selling. As noted, check out the new multiple and how much sense that makes. I'm going to buy a bit more today.
|
|
|
Post by gtrplyr on Jan 3, 2019 8:30:12 GMT -8
You don't have losses unless you sell. Which is not to suggest you shouldn't if your judgement of the fundamentals has changed. Not planning on selling any AAPL. The fundamentals have changed but Apple was undervalued over $200 .... it's valuation at this point is beyond absurd. Of course I'm preaching to the choir here ..... Hoping to hear something positive coming from Buffett but he's way too smart to say a word until he is satisfied with his position .... I could be very wrong here but I would imagine there is way more upside to this stock than downside at this point.
|
|
|
Post by sponge on Jan 3, 2019 8:40:08 GMT -8
This will be the fourth time we really crash since 2008. So many of us are veterans. I remember feeling lost in 2008 and 2012. Now I actually don’t seem to care as much. Sure I lost money on options and bought the shares too soon, but I am still very bullish on the company long term.
Several thoughts this morning.
I still wonder what Apple is thinking when they raise their prices so much on the iPhones. With Android doing pretty good on features, I have a hard time understanding the price premium that TC thinks the iPhone deserves. So raising prices while China is slowing down and dealing with a trade war did not seem alike a good strategy. So now we all pay a price.
I have the 8 and so do all 4 members of our immediate family and we have no interest in upgrading in 2019 either. The premium paid is justified I guess with long lasting iPHones. However I should add that the FaceID on the iPad is so impressive that I no longer think the iPhone feature is not a big deal. I miss the feature when I go back to my iPhone.
I expect us to hit about 117. I just cant figure out exactly when that will happen. That price is target is based on four factors. A gap that needs to be filled, a typical 50% haircut doing these type of sever corrections, a low of 9-10 p/e that we have seen before, and the initial 10% drop today.
So I am trying to come up with some cash in the next 8 months to take advantage of the killer sale on this stock. I always felt 233 was too high and 117 will be too low.
The trade war I think will be over by summer, only because Trump wants to be re elected more then having a fight with China. Hopefully this will give Apple time to move some manufacturing out of China and maybe bring some home. The issue is that the Chinese economy is slowing down fast and I don’t think a truce in the trade war will be enough to prevent that from changing directions.It will also be a
Personally I think TC is too much in love with China and hopefully he is learning is lesson from all this. I am still disgusted with his dismissal of China concerns in every call. Well the time has come where the facts are catching up with him.
|
|
|
Post by sponge on Jan 3, 2019 9:21:19 GMT -8
I should also note that in Feb 2018 we hit a RSI low of 19. So far this year we have only gone down to 22.
Right now we are at 29
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Jan 3, 2019 11:37:50 GMT -8
You don't have losses unless you sell. Which is not to suggest you shouldn't if your judgement of the fundamentals has changed. The sentiment right now is as negative as I can remember since first investing in 2011. This is an acutely huge move down following a monstrous decline from the 2018 high. Nothing right now would lead me to believe that more pain isn't forthcoming. The "iPhone is dead" talk will heat up, and the analysts will (correctly) point to the change in iPhone sales reporting as the first warning sign of something awry. You can continue hold long term and I'm sure we will one day reach a higher share price than where we are today. But you can also do yourself a favor and at the least sell a portion of your position and spare yourself the agony that is probably forthcoming.
|
|
|
Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 3, 2019 11:57:04 GMT -8
One thing to recognize is that the bears were right this time. The move down from 230 was justified and there is an iPhone slowdown - mainly in china but that’s still a hugely significant piece of apple’s business. The market players recognized this and sold in advance of the news. We and the other Apple bulls doubted it and watched as 1.5 years of gains have disappeared.
There’s something to learn from here.
|
|
|
Post by macprof on Jan 3, 2019 12:10:01 GMT -8
From what I recall, the bear reports of iPhone slowdowns were initially all "bull", so that doesn't make them right, at least not then. The slowdown seems to be due more to recent developments regarding US trade with China (and most other countries).
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Jan 3, 2019 12:19:17 GMT -8
One thing to recognize is that the bears were right this time. The move down from 230 was justified and there is an iPhone slowdown - mainly in china but that’s still a hugely significant piece of apple’s business. The market players recognized this and sold in advance of the news. We and the other Apple bulls doubted it and watched as 1.5 years of gains have disappeared. There’s something to learn from here. Group think is dangerous. And risk happens FAST. I entered at ~190, exited at 227, and reentered at 177. Thought more down was possibly, but it seemed like a fairly safe position long term. Did not foresee this coming. What hurts the most is that Apple crushed us twice with essentially the same news. Guided under the consensus during the 4Q release, and now guiding even further under their already low guidance. I am disappointed in the company. The trade war began almost a year ago now. Seems shortsighted if they just realized damage was being done. Hopefully they didn’t waste too much capital buying back shares at what are now very inflated prices.
|
|
|
Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 3, 2019 12:31:29 GMT -8
I read somewhere that they actually held off on buybacks during the last quarter, probably because they knew material donsode I fo was going to come out.
But any buybacks done in the last 18 months were at “inflated prices.”
I’ve said this before, but I don’t see there’s been any value for he buybacks or dividend. If apple had kept their cash, they would be sitting on $410B in cash right now. Compare that to the current market cap of $674B. It’s hard to imagine the stock trading at this low level if they had kept all that cash.
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Jan 3, 2019 12:46:43 GMT -8
Does anyone know what the current share count would be if there was never a buyback program?
|
|
|
Post by gtrplyr on Jan 3, 2019 13:17:00 GMT -8
Does anyone know what the current share count would be if there was never a buyback program? Not sure but there would have been enough cash to buy back over 50% of the company at this point ( I believe .... ) From what someone posted earlier there would be over 400 Billion in available cash .... market cap after today's disaster is 674Billion ..... wow. Does anyone know off hand how much cash is in the bank? A quick google says around 237 Billiion but I'm not sure how accurate that is or if it includes some of the liabilities ..... IF that is correct and I"m sure after this terrible Q4 with only 84 BILLION they would easily have 250 Billion .. I guess they could retire 40% of the shares. Can you imagine the EPS ? I think Tim needs to be more aggressive in talking about buying back shares .... they have been undervalued for too long. I know he mentioned it but I would have preferred a stronger tone. EDIT: BTW, Anyone "enjoying the ride?" .... sheesh.
|
|
|
Post by gtrplyr on Jan 3, 2019 13:45:02 GMT -8
Did anyone report on the meeting Tim had with employees this morning? I'm curious what was said ... I'm guessing more of the same but it would be interesting to know.
|
|
Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
|
Post by Since84 on Jan 3, 2019 14:02:03 GMT -8
A couple of observations.
When Apple retained the cash hoard, the market didn't value it very highly and there were/are lots of people/governments trying to figure out how to get a piece of it.
There have been slow downs in markets, including China before.
One of the challenges / opportunities with FUD is recognizing it as an attempt to move the security. It's existence tell's us someone would like to see a different price. A volume of FUD conveys the degree to which they want to move it. Many on the Board felt the FUD was incorrect. I generally agreed I thought the FUD about supplier cuts was way over done, particularly given the complexity of Apple's supply chain. However, it took advantage of Apple's decision to no longer give unit sales. It moved the stock -- and far more than I felt (feel) is reasonable.
Incidentally, Goldman's statement's today warmed my heart. They have a reputation for being a bull in a china shop with respect to FUD. 😉
Does anyone here think AAPL is fairly valued at $142? I think it is grossly undervalued and a buying opportunity. My focus now, is ensuring it is at or near the bottom. I'd rather get a few extra shares with any purchase.
|
|
stub
Member
The fix is in. Be patient. Don't panic.
Posts: 300
|
Post by stub on Jan 3, 2019 14:06:56 GMT -8
A couple of observations. When Apple retained the cash hoard, the market didn't value it very highly and there were/are lots of people/governments trying to figure out how to get a piece of it. There have been slow downs in markets, including China before. One of the challenges / opportunities with FUD is recognizing it as an attempt to move the security. It's existence tell's us someone would like to see a different price. A volume of FUD conveys the degree to which they want to move it. Many on the Board felt the FUD was incorrect. I generally agreed I thought the FUD about supplier cuts was way over done, particularly given the complexity of Apple's supply chain. However, it took advantage of Apple's decision to no longer give unit sales. It moved the stock -- and far more than I felt (feel) is reasonable. Incidentally, Goldman's statement's today warmed my heart. They have a reputation for being a bull in a china shop with respect to FUD. 😉 Does anyone here think AAPL is fairly valued at $142? I think it is grossly undervalued and a buying opportunity. My focus now, is ensuring it is at or near the bottom. I'd rather get a few extra shares with any purchase. +1 buy back hyjinx, shhhhh it's just between us kids.
|
|
Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
|
Post by Since84 on Jan 3, 2019 14:12:14 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by dmiller on Jan 3, 2019 14:31:37 GMT -8
Except: I don’t you can be accused of being guilty about the battery issue (throttling as a way of trying to get people to buy new iPhones), but THEN in the same breath, accusing them of doing the “wrong” thing on the other side of the coin by implementing the low cost battery replacement program. The battery replacement thing was the “right” thing to do for CUSTOMERS but “as implemented”, the wrong thing to do from a business standpoint. I hindsight, maybe $29 was too low; maybe the length of time was too long; or both. Going forward, it’s no longer an issue, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they have regrets. (Also, assuming they figured out along the way... this program as we’ve defined it is not a good idea... they wouldn’t have been able to backtrack without significant public backlash)
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Jan 3, 2019 18:09:37 GMT -8
The optics on no longer releasing quarterly iPhone numbers are terrible. That falls on TC. The time to make that move was years ago considering the company has been complaining for years about the unfair focus on the numbers.
|
|