I agree with the Forbes article by Chuck Jones. My numbers are much more bearish than his. If we look historically at a weak 2nd quarter we dropped 32% from Q1. I am modeling a 36% drop since there are two factors to consider. The China market won't suddenly recover. There is more pain ahead. The XR is touted as the best selling phone by Apple since day one. The challenge is that unless we knew the breakdown of units, overall sales could still be significantly below the best selling model of last year the X. So if ASP is about $250 less, Apple would have to sell a boatload of XS and XS+ to make up the difference. This means we could have decent iPhone sell thru numbers even if drop 7% in overall sales but it would result in a much bigger decrease in revenue. Thus Apple chose to no longer give us those unit numbers. Everyone would be asking why we dropped ASP so much.
As far as the stock, it is hard to tell. The selloff this week never took place. The market lifted all stocks. If guidance is as low as I am modeling, then I think we should be ready to see 135 by March. What would take us down would be an overall market correction more than Apple numbers.
Trump showed his weak hand yesterday. The gov shutdown is not impacting the market. Don't think he will shut it down in three weeks. The battle with the courts may prove volatile if he chooses the National Emergency route. However, this overall battle shows he will cave when pushed against the wall. So I think chances are he will give in with the Chinese and approve a water down agreement and call it amazing. If that happens I think we could see the stock rebound into the 180s. There is a big if.
However, if the March quarter’s outlook is weak, they will be reminded that Tim Cook decided to stop giving iPhone unit sales with this report, which must mean something is wrong (or at least means bad news).
Expect the iPhone is doomed talk to ramp up wildly if March quarter guidance is under expectations.
Thanks, Steve. The AAPL Tree is now on Apple News (iOS + web-readable and SOON on macOS) at apple.news/TuY-CX_-jRziryK895rDu6g - for a jumble of AAPL fundamentals, tech comment and a bit of AAPL chart nonsense | the ol' blog's at aapltree.wordpress.com | archived blog's on Medium @aapltree | Twitter @aapltree
mercel: It's been a long strange trip - good to see you're still around (and in AAPL -my assumption).
May 10, 2019 12:48:32 GMT -5
Zeke: Long time no see. Nice to see familiar names still here.
Mar 25, 2019 14:42:52 GMT -5
sponge: Regarding the future of VR, I think it will be huge. I was a gamer when I was in college. But as an adult I lost interest. Last fall I flew up to visit my son at college and check out his new Vive set up. After playing with it for the weekend, I was
Apr 29, 2018 15:25:17 GMT -5
galleybob: thanks for your answer. I will copy and send to her
Nov 7, 2017 15:32:18 GMT -5
rickag: So since Jan 28th 2015 AAPL is up from 117.27 to 157.21
Aug 21, 2017 20:09:43 GMT -5
artman1033: VXAPL = 29.21 AAPL = $117.27 AFTER EARNINGS
Jan 28, 2015 14:54:46 GMT -5
artman1033: VXAPL = 44.94 AAPL = $110.39 BEFORE EARNINGS
Jan 27, 2015 11:12:53 GMT -5