Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on May 15, 2019 2:04:47 GMT -8
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on May 15, 2019 3:48:41 GMT -8
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Post by alxyz on May 15, 2019 5:29:17 GMT -8
Well worth the read!
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Post by eastbaybob on May 15, 2019 6:14:46 GMT -8
I just read the article. I have been reading Daniel Dilger for many years and find him to be the smartest and best writer about Apple
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Post by sponge on May 15, 2019 7:12:29 GMT -8
Looks like the big boys stepped in and started to buy the Nasdaq. It took aapl with it and then I think Apple stepped in and started to buy its stock. That was a big reversal despite negative economic news. 190 looks like the target for Friday unless we have a sell off at the end of the day and we drop to 185.
Regarding Tariffs, I have not seen data that shows consumers or business are being impacted. Earnings are decent and inflation in check. So yes businesses are buying the Tariffs and the Chinese have yet to lower the prices. Trade with China continues to do well.
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walterwhite
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"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
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Post by walterwhite on May 15, 2019 7:28:58 GMT -8
I just read the article. I have been reading Daniel Dilger for many years and find him to be the smartest and best writer about Apple Dilger is ok... but he’s hopelessly biased. it’s a case where I agree with most of what he says in spirit but it doesn’t help me financially as an aapl investor... whether aapl is up 100% from a low or down 50% dilger always will be in the ‘apple is always right, and the rest of the market are idiots’ camp. I actually completely agree with him in this case (that buying netflix wouldn't help) - but it's just pretty irrelevant to the stock for the foreseeable future. In general - there were some nice posts yesterday from some of you old-timers with a long-term perspective, like you bought in 2000 and held since through all the ups and downs. I appreciate the sentiment – sincere congrats on your accomplishments and wealth and I know you mean well. looks like it was between $4 and $1.50 or so that you'd have purchased in 2000... so 30x-120x return... wow
but honestly it's not particularly helpful to newer investors like me. I started investing in aapl in 2014 around $100 and rode it up to $130s and down to $90 in 2015-2016... long-term perspective helped, but i wished i would be more prudent taking some off at $130 and re-investing at $90... you can't time the markets yada-yada-yada, i know - but again, would be helpful to lighten up at $230 and buy back at $142... i know people have done that through options here, and i've dabbled in past year.... but there's a part of me that wishes i were done with aapl bullshit and instead bought a bunch of amzn, which is up 6x while aapl can't reach 2x since I bought
basically, to match some old-timers 100x returns, i'd want aapl to become a $50 trillion market cap company.... not gonna happen... isn't that like the entire US stock market?
so yes - i don't have much patience for trump and china and trade wars bullshit, just like i had little patience for all the iphone killers and google and samsung. I'm annoyed as hell that the stock is again below $200 when it appeared so decisively to clear that after earnings... and i would add some bullish options here, but based on trump's recent actions, i fear it will get much worse before it gets better.... boyotts in china, actual tariffs on iphones (wtf?!) and analyst downgrades
unfortunately dilger's sermons can't fix the ridiculous shitshow that is our daily economic reality
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walterwhite
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"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
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Post by walterwhite on May 15, 2019 7:36:06 GMT -8
Regarding Tariffs, I have not seen data that shows consumers or business are being impacted.
you're kidding right?
A 14% price hike that will be either borne by US consumers OR taken by apple as hit to its margins.
this is what a tariff is.
(this does not account for any possible retaliation by china, official or unofficial boycotts of apple in china, or just slumping demand there)
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Post by sponge on May 15, 2019 7:46:25 GMT -8
Regarding Tariffs, I have not seen data that shows consumers or business are being impacted. you're kidding right?
A 14% price hike that will be either borne by US consumers OR taken by apple as hit to its margins.
this is what a tariff is. (this does not account for any possible retaliation by china, official or unofficial boycotts of apple in china, or just slumping demand there)
I am talking in the past from the time tariffs were started until now. Yes moving forward we will see an impact. But it will primarily affect Apple, Boeing and Caterpillar
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walterwhite
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"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
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Post by walterwhite on May 15, 2019 7:56:02 GMT -8
Someone just bought $5.6 million worth of 170 June 21 PUTS. My target is 158 for June 21. That person stands to make $39.5 million if my target hits. OI for 180 puts keeps going up this week. We could see major correction tomorrow. it's almost guaranteed no one was buying just $5.6M of raw puts with nothing else in the transaction. It's nearly certainly bought as part of a hedge on a multi-leg options play of some type. So, don't read much into that. I took a look at those june 170 puts yesterday... yes, there was unusually big volume on them BUT, OI as of yesterday was something like 45K - now only 18K as of this morning. so it appears someone *closed* their position, rather than open. volumes are shown for the day, but OI only for *prior* day - so you can never tell the effect of volume on OI until next morning.
and as ems points out, these are likely complex transactions with hedges... we don't even know if it's a buy or sell... any options transaction reflected in volume could be buy to open, buy to close, sell to open or sell to close...
as it stands now, june OI is highest at 185 by far for both puts (78k) and calls (75k). 200 strike is only about 20k each.
I really don't think these things matter during much bigger news cycle of trade wars and tariffs. if trump didn't tweet last week, we'd be debating 210 and 215 strikes. if there was an actual deal last friday (as expected by market originally) - perhaps we'd be debating 220 and 230 strikes or even kissing ATHs
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Post by sponge on May 15, 2019 7:58:39 GMT -8
Those 170 June puts, show no increase in OI at all. So there must have been a seller that found a buyer for about $2.6 million worth. Now the buyer is down about 30%.
Moving forward it appears the low of 183 will hold for at least 3 weeks. It will be interesting to see if we close below 190 today. We are in no mans land since we did not recapture the 200MA
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walterwhite
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"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
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Post by walterwhite on May 15, 2019 7:58:54 GMT -8
you're kidding right?
A 14% price hike that will be either borne by US consumers OR taken by apple as hit to its margins.
this is what a tariff is. (this does not account for any possible retaliation by china, official or unofficial boycotts of apple in china, or just slumping demand there)
I am talking in the past from the time tariffs were started until now. Yes moving forward we will see an impact. But it will primarily affect Apple, Boeing and Caterpillar
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Post by Luckychoices on May 15, 2019 7:59:11 GMT -8
Regarding Tariffs, I have not seen data that shows consumers or business are being impacted. you're kidding right?
A 14% price hike that will be either borne by US consumers OR taken by apple as hit to its margins.
this is what a tariff is. (this does not account for any possible retaliation by china, official or unofficial boycotts of apple in china, or just slumping demand there)
This is one of the very biggest problems, IMO. Many, if not most, people hear or read Trump's comments about tariffs and get a mental picture of *China* paying that tariff directly into the U.S. Government treasury. They don't realize that it's the U.S. *citizens* who will be paying that tariff money when the seller of imported goods from China raises the price of those goods to cover the tariff charges. Even with the tariff charge, a China-made item may still be less expensive than an item made in the U.S. (and many times there is no U.S. counterpart) so one result from the tariff is to take more money from the U.S. consumer. But the biggest problem with the tariffs is that farmers and small businesses are losing a market for their goods in China and will probably *never* regain it.
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Post by sponge on May 15, 2019 8:27:06 GMT -8
Those 170 June puts, show no increase in OI at all. So there must have been a seller that found a buyer for about $2.6 million worth. Now the buyer is down about 30%. Moving forward it appears the low of 183 will hold for at least 3 weeks. It will be interesting to see if we close below 190 today. We are in no mans land since we did not recapture the 200MA I was wrong. I stand corrected since OI dropped significantly. In fact it dropped for the 180 Puts as well.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on May 15, 2019 9:03:11 GMT -8
but honestly it's not particularly helpful to newer investors like me. I started investing in aapl in 2014 around $100 and rode it up to $130s and down to $90 in 2015-2016... long-term perspective helped, but i wished i would be more prudent taking some off at $130 and re-investing at $90... you can't time the markets yada-yada-yada, i know - but again, would be helpful to lighten up at $230 and buy back at $142... i know people have done that through options here, and i've dabbled in past year.... but there's a part of me that wishes i were done with aapl bullshit and instead bought a bunch of amzn, which is up 6x while aapl can't reach 2x since I bought
Some things you can't learn from others. I can try to pass on the knowledge I've gleaned from the past 21 years, but if you choose to pigeon hole the data into "it's different this time" or "I missed that opportunity", that's on you. I also have read several books about Manias, Panics and Depression, along with some like Jessie Livermore (Memoir of a stock operator) and in the robber barron time on Gould. While one can think we will never have some of those things again, sometimes it rhymes. Just like the book I read where the last chapter talked about the lender of last resort, which played out nearly exactly in 2007-2008 of saving some, but needing to let some fail. As for timing, you just have to decide if you, personally, can beat the market. History shows that many of the paid managers that do this full time don't beat the market. So what's your game, and how are you going to game it? Leading up to my first purchase of AAPL on the second trading day in 1998, there had been several tech companies that went up 10x in one year. $5k goes to $50k. Coulda shoulda woulda. The grass is always greener, and hindsight is 20/20. Figure out your risk level. Everyone is happy to take on risk when their account is going up. Most people get a lot more sheepish on risk when their account plummets. I've used margin since nearly the beginning of my investing. It's helped me at times, and squashed me at times (margin calls at bad times in 2000 and 2007). It really sucks having to sell out at or near a low. In 2007 that was at $95, before the eventual split. Like those 10x single year gain stocks, doing the hindsight math on that with the number of shares I sold just makes me laugh manically. coulda woulda shoulda. Likewise there's options. They can be a great multiplier, but also squash you. I made a lot with them. I then lost a lot with them. I made more than I lost...I think. But there's lots of options with options, whether it's straight calls (or puts), spreads, covered calls, covered puts, or various more complex multi legged things. There's lots of risk/reward choices. But I rarely use options anymore, often deciding the risk/reward isn't worth it, possibly because the upside for my personal finances isn't that huge, and I likely put a little too much probability on a minor black swan event that would sink the valuation. Still, sometimes it's fun taking a little risk with options (That's for you, Lucky!) Personally, I still use a little margin, but instead of the max I use a lot less. So (when a newish investor) if I had $100k I might borrow up to the max $100k. (great when the stock is going up, not so great when going down. Often you get a margin call at 30% equity or 35% with a concentrated portfolio. That's $200k total, and you'd get a margin call due to that 30% level at $143k, or a drop of 28.5%. In comparison, in the last 6 months AAPL dropped 39% from it's peak.) Now I borrow a lot less, like 10% or up to 20%. While looking at total dollars it's a lot, we have it instead of a mortgage (and generally at a lower rate than a mortgage), and are backstopped by a HELOC that I can tap at any time and a rental we can sell. Some lessons you have to learn yourself, but hopefully you can learn something from my painful history. Like I've said before, I've had my portfolio get squashed a few times, even as much as 85% twice. It's painful, and I don't wish that on anyone, but it's also the price of playing with leverage through margin and options, sometimes at the same time. But it also helped our portfolio over the decades, such that I was able to retire, early. Just realize that market average returns compounded over time do add up, and that you're taking on added risk (with potential reward) if you try to beat the averages through timing, margin, options, or really anything. 3 final things. First, learn while you are young and the stakes are pretty low. Losing a $5k investment is a lot cheaper than losing something much bigger. Second, personally I like Fisher Investment's mindset of trying to beat the market, by a little. Basically they suggested investing in several things to try to mimic the market, but overweight in one or two areas you (they) felt would beat the market that year, and underweight one or two areas that would lag. If they were right, they beat by a little. But worst case if they missed, they would only lag the market by a little. It's all about risk/reward. And finally, get some money into a 401k/403B/IRA/ROTH/etc and be less risky with it. Put enough in to give you a decent retirement at a traditional age. This was my safety net, my "no living off dog food" account. If I lost everything else, I'd still have this...and so I could be a little more risky with everything else. The simple math on comparing the plans all work out the same (paying taxes upfront, or when withdrawing), unless you start messing with varying tax rates. But if you need extra incentive, make a simple spreadsheet. Basically if you compare putting in a set amount every year for 5 years, vs waiting for 5 years and then starting and putting in that amount every year until retirement, the latter never catches up with the former. That's using a set return, but the principle is right that investing early and letting it compound really rocks! Learn from others. I've been investing now for half my life (wow, I'm getting old . While there have been ups and downs, I've done well, and AAPL's return has helped. But like Lucky pointed out in a post, it's not just luck. Along with picking a good stock (which turned out to be great), you had to save up money, have the conviction to invest it, and the perseverance to make it through the ups and downs. AAPL has done well for me over the past 21 years, but that doesn't mean that it will continue, or that it's risk/reward is the right fit for you. It is a much different company now, just as I am a much different investor now, at a vastly different place in my life. Everyone's risk/reward situation is different, depending on a lot of variables, but hopefully there was something helpful in this. Good luck!
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walterwhite
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"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
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Post by walterwhite on May 15, 2019 10:53:18 GMT -8
thanks 4aapl - tons of good advice in that post! I will save and re-read several times...
I agree with your general philosophy, and as aapl investors (individual stock pickers by definition) i think it means most people here think they *can* beat the market, even by a little bit... 'beating' might mean higher returns at similar risk, or sometimes similar returns but at lower risk. I know i griped about amzn being up 6x while aapl has been up 2x, but i realize i didn't have the choice - as aapl's low p/e has always attracted me, while amzn's perpetually high p/e repelled me.
the rest of your advice is great; love the part about separate accounts with different risk/reward profiles. Margin is not for me personally, but options do look attractive.
I'm realistic about the role aapl would play for me versus you and other lucky early investors (like Lucky ) - i'm not expecting 50x returns or even 10x... but 5x would be nice through a combination of some options and modest market-timing... I think it's still possible.
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Post by silkstone on May 15, 2019 13:42:18 GMT -8
Like Apple, the Chinese play the long game. They understand how our election cycle works and they are happy to use it against us. It’ll be interesting to see who blinks first. I think most investors in this country expect this to work itself out before too much damage is done so we (apple) may not fall as much as some think. After all, apple is high quality with a very reasonable valuation compared to the fangs. But it may not work out because our leadership has a history of going all in and ending up bankrupt. Hope we don’t see that. I wouldn’t bet one way or another. At this point in my life, I like sure things.
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Post by nwjade on May 15, 2019 14:47:07 GMT -8
Like Apple, the Chinese play the long game. They understand how our election cycle works and they are happy to use it against us. It’ll be interesting to see who blinks first. I think most investors in this country expect this to work itself out before too much damage is done so we (apple) may not fall as much as some think. After all, apple is high quality with a very reasonable valuation compared to the fangs. But it may not work out because our leadership has a history of going all in and ending up bankrupt. Hope we don’t see that. I wouldn’t bet one way or another. At this point in my life, I like sure things. Owning Apple we're all betting it's going to work out rather than not betting one way or the other as you said. And no it's not a sure thing it will, wonderful position to be put in. For me the only thing to do is endure the pain because as sure as the sun rises if I sell a trade deal will be announced the same day.
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