4aapl
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Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Jul 2, 2019 6:45:06 GMT -8
AAPL is up a little this morning, 70 minutes in to the trading day. Instead of links today, let's get the discussion going with a question about Apple.
How is Apple and AAPL different today than when you originally bought shares, and why do you still hold it?
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Jul 2, 2019 6:58:19 GMT -8
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Jul 2, 2019 7:21:04 GMT -8
How is Apple and AAPL different today than when you originally bought shares, and why do you still hold it? Apple is much bigger and more successful, since we first bought AAPL shortly after the iPhone came out. Although I have never owned any other computer, Apple was perceived as having niche products in a sea of IBM PC clones. With my first important job having been in the CAD/CAM industry, I recognized that GUIs would become the standard interface, enabling non-technical folks to interact with computers in an intuitive manner. We still hold it because we love the company and its products, and because the dividends came along just in time to augment our retirement, enabling us to maintain without selling off AAPL or other investments.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Jul 2, 2019 7:50:30 GMT -8
How is Apple and AAPL different today than when you originally bought shares, and why do you still hold it? Apple and AAPL is hugely different today than when I first bought shares on the 2nd trading day of '98, though a lot is still the same with the company. At that time it was the underdog, having just brought back SJ and taken a loan of $300M from Microsoft. I was a fanboy, and it made sense as my first stock investment, even as all companies were rising dramatically into the bubble. It was a whole different time for Apple, where a rainbow Apple sticker on a car window was rare and unique. It made for quite a ride, along with many lessons learned when things crashed. Now days Apple is in a whole different boat. I don't consider it at the monopoly stage that MS was at back then, or at least it doesn't seem to leverage it's marketshare to the abusive level. But by being the size it is now, I see the growth potential to be a lot smaller. Sure, new products like the Watch and a car could gain enough marketshare to make a dent, or even a big dent. But in most likely scenarios, it's tough to move profits up by whole multiples in a shorter period of time. Thus stock ownership reasoning has changed. It's not the educated smart bet of the poker player, but more akin to being on the side of the house, taking a small but consistent cut. Over the longer term, 5-10 years, I expect AAPL's total return to beat the market, but I also expect it to be more volatile than the market and the beat to be fairly small unless new profitable products really take hold. For me, I plan to move some of our holdings from AAPL to market indexes, mainly just as a diversification plan to cut risk and volatility, while possibly taking advantage of some of the peaks AAPL occasionally sees. But realistically in the medium term, this is more on the order of going from 90% in AAPL down to a mere 50% in AAPL, while enjoying the expected continued ~10% growth and dividend on a strong company.
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Post by sponge on Jul 2, 2019 7:56:43 GMT -8
I don’t think it is different at all. More well known given its high market cap.
The iMac and OS X turned the company around. It was a cash cow with the iPod.
The iPhone and iPad along with the Apple Store make it a cash cow for ever.
Look at p/e. We dropped from 35 to 9. But have floated between 12-19.
We will be fine. Survived tech bubble, 9/11 recession, 2007 recession and we will survive the next one as well.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Jul 2, 2019 8:16:35 GMT -8
This was more interesting and detailed than I expected. Already an extendable lower speed bumper that could take the energy from a small blow without causing as much damage to either party would be helpful. Personally, after just touching up some dings on our bumper and then seeing someone from a block away in Portland put a few new license plate screw head marks into our bumper while attempting to park, I would prefer it to not be fully retracted when parked. But the multistage and oriented deflection portions of the patent show that a little more time was put into this idea. Even as a decently large stakeholder, I would like to see Apple take a page from Elon and open up some of these patents, those that might serve a greater good than be part of a competitive advantage. Thus even if they never make a car of their own, they can continue to change the world.
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Jul 2, 2019 9:04:34 GMT -8
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Jul 2, 2019 10:21:32 GMT -8
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Post by eastbaybob on Jul 2, 2019 11:08:30 GMT -8
The iMac and OS X turned the company around. It was a cash cow with the iPod. I bought in 2000 because I believed that OS X was a total game changer. When I read that OS X would be portable I pretty much bet the ranch
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 2, 2019 12:40:23 GMT -8
+1 to everything 4aapl said. You can’t beat the market forever, since you eventually become the market. But you also don’t need to keep beating the market either if you were lucky enough to have such an opportunity available and took it. Then you want safety, and you have that. If your investing lifecycle aligns with the lifecycle of a company you’ve hit the jackpot. I’m not rotating into indexes per se, but I’m setting myself up as much as I can to where I can to a great extent if I want to.
I’ve setup Roth IRAs for my kids and also my nephews and nieces and bought AAPL in them, but my advice to them as they’re clearing 18 is never to take stock tips from anyone and invest in indexes if they’re the one contributing actively managing, as they aren’t really yet. AAPL can’t do for them what it did for me, but it might be no company they’re likely to find in their sphere of competence ever will. So I tell them better to assume they’ll never find the next Apple and invest accordingly. I was following Apple, Silicon Valley, and computer industry history for at least a dozen years before I even thought of investing in equities. I did it for the pure joy and only secondary value of whatever help it might give in IT career. And the truth is most people have relatively poor judgment anyway. That it has turned out to be useful for investing I never anticipated. That’s luck.
Apple’s a mature company. I think it’s still undervalued and am still playing it but with an entirely different mindset and needs than I had when I was struggling to make it in IT and had little money. But I also want as much safety factor as I can get now, and something that-ideally anyway-I’ll never be forced to sell unless I want to. As far as I can tell, Apple is still the perfect stock for me.
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benoir
fire starter
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Posts: 1,318
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Post by benoir on Jul 2, 2019 15:51:00 GMT -8
Just like eastbaybob (for some reason I want to say 'easy bob'.. ) I picked my first AAPL's in 2000 (at the bottom of the big crash), At the time I was reading a lot of, um, let's see... there was As the Apple Turns, very early Roughly Drafted, MacOS Rumours (that could be a bit trashy). But it was clear at that time that Apple, with SJ back at the helm, were onto something. I remember everyone telling me that I was a fool and that they would be out of business soon. The first few years up to 2004 were tough when the naysayers would ask how much I'd made, which was , nothing. I'm a holder. I have mixed feelings about recent news of JI's retirement and what that means for the future of AAPL/Apple. Somewhere in all the noise of news and announcements is something of the truth - it's just knowing what threads are facts and what are pure click bait conjecture.
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