Yesterday, although an UP day for AAPL compared to the markets, was "not bad" after a solid earnings report albeit with guidance that disappointed some. Today is the day of "action". Wheee time so far.
It's 11.16 AM and we're at 253.56, up by $4.80.
Apart from that good news, the only other thing making the rounds is that TV+ is live and ready for viewing.
Around 277 we'll be at 1.25 Trillion. A milestone of sorts.
Sans bad tweets, I see it happening by this Jan.
That seems a bit of a run, but it could happen.
While I plan to prune a little more, it's more of a trimming up, selling off that little extra I bought 11.5 months ago at $186, and trimming down margin.
OTOH, we do have the long term goal of becoming more balanced and diversified. It's a risk/reward thing, and the reward of say doubling our money from here in the say 10% chance that it would in the next 3 years, isn't worth the overall risk. Over the last 5+ years, AAPL has had some good runs, but it has also had several times where it only roughly matched the market, but with higher volatility.
The current price range is one of those seemingly rare moments where I feel Apple is fairly valued. Not overvalued. And not fair when compared to too many places, especially some of the more momentum players. But fair for AAPL's history over the past 2 decades.
Being likely closer to the top than the bottom, this is a great time to trim a little. But it's also a time to plan into the future, and think about where one might want to sell in the future. Thus I'm looking at covered calls, where I can pick a few different scenarios and timeframes, and decide where I would sell, all while taking a nice premium today.
With all that background out of the way, here's a couple thoughts I jotted down yesterday. They are completely back-of-the-envelope, but they are somewhat realistic. All are based on a $249 price yesterday, and looking ~3 months out, ~15 months out, and ~27 months out, at the Jan options expiration.
Expect (60+% chance) 5% in 3 months (261), 15-20% in the next year (300-314), then 10-15% the following year (330-360)
Bull case (maybe 20% chance) 8% in 3 months (269), 20% (323), then 15% (371)
Super Bull case (5-10% chance) 10% in 3 months (274), 22% (334), then 18% (394)
AAPL could do better, or could do worse. These days especially, there are a multitude of issues that could come up for the market and economy as a whole over the next 27 months. But this gives me a rough framework, helping me decide how much I would be willing to sell at certain points, and thinking about splitting that up between Jan '21 and Jan '22 covered calls, at multiple strikes, with the goal of selling off some if AAPL does pretty well, and potentially selling off as much as all if AAPL hits those Super Bull case numbers, all while taking in a decently large premium now, roughly a few times the dividend. That won't protect against the downside, but I've held at least some shares for nearly 22 years now, and a nice premium in our pocket would make the sitting back and waiting for the next time AAPL was near the high side just that much more palatable.
We all have different goals, time horizons, and risk/reward ratios. But we're all here to make some money, thanks to Apple and AAPL.
If you're part of the group like me which has to satisfy an annual IRA RMD (Required Minimum Distribution) this may be of interest if you're not already aware of it. I transfer AAPL dividend cash from my Schwab IRA account to my Schwab Individual account but fall short of meeting the RMD amount. What to do? I don't want to sell any shares of Apple. Rather than sell shares, I transfer shares from my IRA account to my Individual account maintaining ownership of all of my shares of Apple. The dollar value of the shares at the time of the transfer is immediately credited toward the RMD amount. Taxes have to be paid on the amount of the distribution but you would have to do that regardless whether it was from cash or stock and the cost basis of the stock is reset to the transfer amount. Your situation may be different but worth considering if you want to hold your Apple (or any stock) shares and don't want to try and time the market by selling and repurchasing the same shares back especially around dividend payout times like we're coming up on.
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) was last seen up 1.5% at $246.85 a share after earnings, just under a recent high of $249.75. Wedbush Securities reiterated it as Outperform and raised its target price to $300 from $265, noting strength in China and that guidance was better than expected for the holiday quarter. Wells Fargo maintained its Market Perform rating but raised its target to $245 from $215, while UBS reiterated its Buy rating and raised its target to $280 from $275. Morgan Stanley reiterated its Overweight rating and raised its target to $296 from $289. D.A. Davidson reiterated its Buy rating and raised its target to $300 from $270, and Canaccord Genuity reiterated its Buy rating and raised its target to $275 from $260.
Apple Inc. is seeking exclusions from President Donald Trump’s tariffs that went into effect Sept. 1 on the Apple Watch, iMac, parts for the iPhone and other components imported from China.
The company filed requests for exclusions from 15% duties on 11 products or components Thursday, the first day U.S. firms could seek relief from the tariffs on about $110 billion in Chinese imports. The iPhone maker had mixed results on its requests for exclusions from the previous round of duties.
OK, I’m not a moderator and maybe I’m being presumptuous here, but I’m just going to go ahead and call this a “weeee!”
Why would you need to be a moderator to share in the delight of a good day for AAPL?
Rock on, AAPL!
In non-AAPL news, it's good to hear the various CA fires dying down. The small one near the presidential library is where we hike when visiting the in-laws. And the Sonoma County one forced neighbors a couple doors down out of their rebuilt primary house, which had burned to the ground just a few hours in to the Santa Rosa fire 2 years ago. Crazy times! But even proactive power outages, like the one my sister had in Pacifica for nearly 48 hours, reminds one to be prepared. It's been 30 years since the last big bay area earthquake. Just like medium or big financial downturns, when it gets to be that long between episodes, people start to get lax.
Apple (among others) is one of the big places that is ready for natural disasters. They had generators in place for the most important things, but also had ARCs (acronym or biblical?) with supplies and tools. I forget if it was aimed at 3 days or as many as 7, but they had taken the time to plan. As a CERT at Apple, we learned about them and got to see the stuff, though I hadn't yet learned to use the jaws of life and gas powered construction saw. While I don't know the specifics of the current location, instead of being shipping boxes in the parking lot (that we could see from overhead maps) I wouldn't be surprised if they had built them into the area, even covering the roof with dirt to help keep them cool (and keep supplies viable for longer).
Nice move AAPL! Keep on flying! Bonus points if you stretch right on though my rough targets!
mercel: It's been a long strange trip - good to see you're still around (and in AAPL -my assumption).
May 10, 2019 12:48:32 GMT -5
Zeke: Long time no see. Nice to see familiar names still here.
Mar 25, 2019 14:42:52 GMT -5
sponge: Regarding the future of VR, I think it will be huge. I was a gamer when I was in college. But as an adult I lost interest. Last fall I flew up to visit my son at college and check out his new Vive set up. After playing with it for the weekend, I was
Apr 29, 2018 15:25:17 GMT -5
galleybob: thanks for your answer. I will copy and send to her
Nov 7, 2017 15:32:18 GMT -5
rickag: So since Jan 28th 2015 AAPL is up from 117.27 to 157.21
Aug 21, 2017 20:09:43 GMT -5
artman1033: VXAPL = 29.21 AAPL = $117.27 AFTER EARNINGS
Jan 28, 2015 14:54:46 GMT -5
artman1033: VXAPL = 44.94 AAPL = $110.39 BEFORE EARNINGS
Jan 27, 2015 11:12:53 GMT -5