chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Dec 28, 2019 6:57:03 GMT -8
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Post by Luckychoices on Dec 28, 2019 10:54:53 GMT -8
...and yet, we still see articles like this one this morning on Seeking Alpha: Apple: Unloved StockNote: Sorry for the broken link this morning. Now fixed.===================== Summary Apple analysts tell a bullish story, while the average analyst price target is actually bearish at $264.
The stock has seen multiple expansions, but Apple hasn't closed the gap with the other tech giants.
Despite the rally, the stock trades at ~17x EV/FY21 EPS estimates.
By all metrics, Apple is not a loved stock while trading at all-time highs.
Over the last few weeks, a parade of analysts have come out bullish on Apple (AAPL) giving the market an impression of an analyst base overly bullish when the stock is at all-time highs. The reality is the analyst community isn't actually overly bullish on the stock. My investment thesis remains bullish on the stock heading into year-end realizing the stock and the market are likely due for a sell-off in January.
Not So Bullish
Only last Friday, both Piper Jaffray and Bernstein analysts both came out resoundingly bullish on Apple. The reality is that neither analyst made an overly bullish call to generate some sort of peak bullishness in the stock.
Piper Jaffray was the most bullish analyst, raising the price target of analyst Michael Olson to $305 from $290. The analyst basis the rating on an internal survey that suggests 23% of respondents are now willing to pay an ASP of $1,200 for a 5G iPhone. The number isn't actually shocking as only a quarter of consumers willing to pay premium prices for a 5G iPhone was already a general view of prospects for next year.
Source: Apple 3.0
Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi sounded bullish with a positive view of AirPods, but the analyst kept a Market Perform rating on Apple with a $250 price target. With the stock at $284, his view should count as a Sell rating considering the expected 10% decline.
Where the Bernstein call is even more bearish than on the surface is the bullish statement surrounding AirPods really isn't bullish. Mr. Sacconaghi predicts Apple selling 85 million units for 2020 revenues of $15 billion. My previous estimate had Apple reaching 100 million units and sales of $20 billion.
Of 45 analysts, only 25 are Bullish on Apple. Another 20 have a Neutral or Bearish view on the stock.Source: Seeking Alpha Sell Side Rating
In a similar manner, Cleveland Research came in with a bullish call on Apple earlier in the prior week. Analyst Ben Bollin is positive on revenues beating estimates due to sales of iPhones and wearables.
While all of these analysts making bullish statements might give investors the view of an overly bullish analyst community, the reality is that average analyst ratings are at the lowest level in the last five years. The average analyst has a 3.75 rating and only a $265 price target.===================== Article continues... Excellent! She may love the watch enough to convince her husband to try it. Â
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Dec 28, 2019 11:03:36 GMT -8
I was reviewing the post titles from the beginning of the year to see just exactly how incredible it has been, and was drawn to a post by former denizen lstream. It certainly reminded me of how many top notch contributors have abandoned the forum. If you are interested, click here. Lstream, if you are lurking, please do grace us with an occasional post.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 28, 2019 11:35:10 GMT -8
...and yet, we still see articles like this one this morning on Seeking Alpha: Apple: Unloved StockBernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi sounded bullish with a positive view of AirPods, but the analyst kept a Market Perform rating on Apple with a $250 price target. With the stock at $284, his view should count as a Sell rating considering the expected 10% decline. Where the Bernstein call is even more bearish than on the surface is the bullish statement surrounding AirPods really isn't bullish. Mr. Sacconaghi predicts Apple selling 85 million units for 2020 revenues of $15 billion. My previous estimate had Apple reaching 100 million units and sales of $20 billion. Hey your link Apple: Unloved Stock is broken. Also from Seeking Alpha, Apple sell-side ratings.
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ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 537
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Post by ono on Dec 28, 2019 14:00:53 GMT -8
From Unloved Stock "net payout yield that combines the dividend yield and net stock buyback yield is down to only 6.3%.". OK, but what could the yield be by returning the annual net free cash-flow Apple is generating, and returning say 20% of their net cash position (~100B, I didn't check), over each of the next 5 years?
Edit: "only 6.3%" For the profitable, cash generating, and deep pocket company that Apple is, is this bad?
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Dec 28, 2019 16:30:50 GMT -8
From Unloved Stock "net payout yield that combines the dividend yield and net stock buyback yield is down to only 6.3%.". OK, but what could the yield be by returning the annual net free cash-flow Apple is generating, and returning say 20% of their net cash position (~100B, I didn't check), over each of the next 5 years? Edit: "only 6.3%" For the profitable, cash generating, and deep pocket company that Apple is, is this bad? No, that is not bad. But, who are we, just the people that have invested our future in a great company, hopping for an acknowledgment of the trust that has been placed in them. Those that have supported the company by buying it’s products when few others saw them as anything other than strange and unusual, but instead we saw the beauty and resourcefulness of their products and beat the Apple drum for anyone willing to listen. No, a better return would not be a bad thing to consider.
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ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 537
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Post by ono on Dec 28, 2019 16:54:18 GMT -8
From Unloved Stock "net payout yield that combines the dividend yield and net stock buyback yield is down to only 6.3%.". OK, but what could the yield be by returning the annual net free cash-flow Apple is generating, and returning say 20% of their net cash position (~100B, I didn't check), over each of the next 5 years? Edit: "only 6.3%" For the profitable, cash generating, and deep pocket company that Apple is, is this bad? No, that is not bad. But, who are we, just the people that have invested our future in a great company, hopping for an acknowledgment of the trust that has been placed in them. Those that have supported the company by buying it’s products when few others saw them as anything other than strange and unusual, but instead we saw the beauty and resourcefulness of their products and beat the Apple drum for anyone willing to listen. No, a better return would not be a bad thing to consider. Sorry, my question is more is this 6.3% bad compared to the firepower that can be liberated or spent, relative to other stocks. .
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Post by socal Film Composer on Dec 28, 2019 22:39:31 GMT -8
Yield is good - add that to an estimated 5 year growth rate of 10% and we net a 16.3% total return - for their size and our relative posistions this is a continued money maker for us! 285 compounded at 16.3% would have the shares at $640 five years from now and you misread the article - the 6.3 yield DOES include the buyback - from the referenced article: "The net payout yield that combines the dividend yield and net stock buyback yield is down to only 6.3%." - still with 100 billion left to retturn to shareholders plus basically all of the free cash flow coming our way, we are setup for a major rally - if you look at a 5 year time frame, which is my preferred method of investing. Assuming after 5 years we have at least doubled from here due to growth and buybacks still reducing share count and accretive to EPS - even without the net cash this is still going to be a HUGE $ maker for us. long term I think a free cash flow yield of about 5% is a realistic goal and with some organic growth, say 5-7 % annually we could still be a 10% growth story. By then I will trust/assume the multiple expansion described in the article will have taken place (as it is now) and we will be sitting as a higher baseline of valuation. I'd like to see the dayq=s of relegating apple to an absurd 10 - 15 PE are finally over!
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Dec 29, 2019 7:59:38 GMT -8
Considering that it's the weekend and there is little actual financial news, I am only going to apologize a bit for posting the link to Why Apple, Google, and other big tech companies create their own fonts. I started working in computer graphics in 1976, when everything was still green screen. Bit-mapped graphics began appearing in the early 80's, but one of the things that made the Mac revolutionary was its exploitation of the technology to offer variable width fonts of different font styles. It gets taken completely for granted these days, but it was definitely one of the things that helped to democratize computer technology.
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Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on Dec 30, 2019 4:44:09 GMT -8
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