Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Jan 2, 2020 4:32:03 GMT -8
The first trading day of the year. I’m seeing $2.36 + in per-market. A good way to start the new year off. Is this the day AAPL reaches $300? If so, will $300 be left in the past or will there be profit taking? California’s new data privacy law will change the internet“Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG, GOOGL) have also announced that they will afford consumers outside of California the same rights as those from the Golden State.” Thankfully, this should have little impact on Apple. Apple has always done the right think with the data collected. Carry on .
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Post by elmar on Jan 2, 2020 4:40:47 GMT -8
The first trading day of the year. I’m seeing $2.36 + in per-market. A good way to start the new year off. Is this the day AAPL reaches $300? If so, will $300 be left in the past or will there be profit taking? I am expecting some resistance when approaching the "magic" number of $300. So I do expect to cross it some day during next week.
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benoir
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Post by benoir on Jan 2, 2020 5:02:05 GMT -8
I wouldn’t mind AAPL’s earnings catching up to its price for a while. I accept that PEs don’t really work anymore but a PE at least gives me a sense of comfort in knowing the intrinsic value. From my armchair a multiple of 24 seems like fair value. But happy to be proved wrong if it finds a home somewhat higher.
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benoir
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Post by benoir on Jan 2, 2020 7:00:48 GMT -8
See... now we have a PE of 25....
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Post by artman1033 on Jan 2, 2020 7:01:36 GMT -8
AAPL ALL TIME HIGH! $300.60 All Time Highest TODAY intraday
updated at close (3 PM CENTRAL)
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Jan 2, 2020 7:25:08 GMT -8
See... now we have a PE of 25.... I see a RSI of 83 and a gap that was created from Tuesday’s close.
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Post by socal Film Composer on Jan 2, 2020 7:59:07 GMT -8
Good lord this is a freight train. Congrats Longs and here's to 5G and Apple 2020 - To move a stock this big like this - has to be institutional buying big time. Mutual funds who missed 2019 want to get ahead of the 5G cycle.
We know the updside looks rosy - but on a day like today when our eyes are bugging out again, and putting orders in on teslas, and such - here's a question -
what is the DOWNSIDE risk in the shares?
i.e. on a bad news event, missed earnings, trade war tension, whatever - how far do we think we could fall in a correction, or brutal sell off? Simply curious as to the board's thoughts, since many of us here have been through so many wild swings in the past 12 years. We bought our first shares in late 2007, and 2008. and I remember in the 2008/09 crash when we dipped to $100 (pre-split) I bought some more and have been buying ever since.
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Post by lulli on Jan 2, 2020 8:19:08 GMT -8
Good lord this is a freight train. Congrats Longs and here's to 5G and Apple 2020 - To move a stock this big like this - has to be institutional buying big time. Mutual funds who missed 2019 want to get ahead of the 5G cycle. We know the updside looks rosy - but on a day like today when our eyes are bugging out again, and putting orders in on teslas, and such - here's a question - what is the DOWNSIDE risk in the shares? i.e. on a bad news event, missed earnings, trade war tension, whatever - how far do we think we could fall in a correction, or brutal sell off? Simply curious as to the board's thoughts, since many of us here have been through so many wild swings in the past 12 years. We bought our first shares in late 2007, and 2008. and I remember in the 2008/09 crash when we dipped to $100 (pre-split) I bought some more and have been buying ever since. For what it's worth, I have had some steady success using stop orders for buying puts (say, with a stop at 295) to protect gains. If some unexpected slide happens, you buy and the stock goes back up then you loose some but if all goes well you "only" loose some gains, whereas if it keeps falling the puts-insurance helps a lot. One thing to pay attention to if that happens is not to be tempted into selling the puts too early, or setting stop-sell orders too low.
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Ted
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Post by Ted on Jan 2, 2020 8:25:38 GMT -8
AAPL is a freight train at this point, and no one can still call this ”window dressing.” 2020 whee.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Jan 2, 2020 8:33:23 GMT -8
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Post by carbonate24 on Jan 2, 2020 8:59:07 GMT -8
I decided to read the article since it was from someone other than Ewan Spence or Gordon Kelly at Forbes. While the article lacked the usual snarkiness of the other two, the conclusions were still head-scratching. The author closed with this beauty...."If Apple stock fell 59% to $122 it would trade at a price-earnings ratio of 10 — roughly equal to its five year earnings growth rate. Were its shares to fall that far, I would consider buying them". Really, he would consider buying them at $122??? That's some really bold stuff there.
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Jan 2, 2020 9:16:40 GMT -8
“ Such measly growth is not enough to justify its current PEG ratio — let alone the even higher valuation implied by Munster’s $400 price target. If Apple stock fell 59% to $122 it would trade at a price-earnings ratio of 10 — roughly equal to its five year earnings growth rate. Were its shares to fall that far, I would consider buying them.” My guess is, Peter will never own any AAPL.
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Post by silkstone on Jan 2, 2020 9:57:41 GMT -8
Good lord this is a freight train. Congrats Longs and here's to 5G and Apple 2020 - To move a stock this big like this - has to be institutional buying big time. Mutual funds who missed 2019 want to get ahead of the 5G cycle. We know the updside looks rosy - but on a day like today when our eyes are bugging out again, and putting orders in on teslas, and such - here's a question - what is the DOWNSIDE risk in the shares? i.e. on a bad news event, missed earnings, trade war tension, whatever - how far do we think we could fall in a correction, or brutal sell off? Simply curious as to the board's thoughts, since many of us here have been through so many wild swings in the past 12 years. We bought our first shares in late 2007, and 2008. and I remember in the 2008/09 crash when we dipped to $100 (pre-split) I bought some more and have been buying ever since. Well, your cost basis is very low so your shares have a great cushion. Taking some profit is never a bad idea. Obviously if the market falls 30% we’re prolly going down at least that much or more. I think Apple shares are much more resilient at this point due to the successful rollout of Apple services and the huge numbers of wearables now being sold. So, I feel like we aren’t as vulnerable to the huge drops in the shares as we were when the number of phones being sold every quarter was the predominant theme, jmo. I hear more and more people saying 5G is going to be huge even though it’s hard for me to envision what this means for Apple other than selling a ton of 5G iPhones. Does anyone know other ways Apple will be making money from 5G in the next few years !
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Post by plcm123 on Jan 2, 2020 10:08:09 GMT -8
Good lord this is a freight train. Congrats Longs and here's to 5G and Apple 2020 - To move a stock this big like this - has to be institutional buying big time. Mutual funds who missed 2019 want to get ahead of the 5G cycle. We know the updside looks rosy - but on a day like today when our eyes are bugging out again, and putting orders in on teslas, and such - here's a question - what is the DOWNSIDE risk in the shares? i.e. on a bad news event, missed earnings, trade war tension, whatever - how far do we think we could fall in a correction, or brutal sell off? Simply curious as to the board's thoughts, since many of us here have been through so many wild swings in the past 12 years. We bought our first shares in late 2007, and 2008. and I remember in the 2008/09 crash when we dipped to $100 (pre-split) I bought some more and have been buying ever since. You should be asking this question when the whole market is down and AAPL is up. Anyway, until AAPL reaches at least FB p/e, it is still considered way undervalued. Apple iPhone worldwide market share is still only about 23% so there is plenty of rooms for growth. Apple watch and airpod still has a lot of rooms to grow, considering the number of iPhone users still using the wired earpods. Cheers to the longs.
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benoir
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Post by benoir on Jan 2, 2020 10:38:43 GMT -8
I does look a bit like a rising tide today. Not just AAPL.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 2, 2020 11:36:46 GMT -8
what is the DOWNSIDE risk in the shares? i.e. on a bad news event, missed earnings, trade war tension, whatever - how far do we think we could fall in a correction, or brutal sell off? Simply curious as to the board's thoughts, since many of us here have been through so many wild swings in the past 12 years. We bought our first shares in late 2007, and 2008. and I remember in the 2008/09 crash when we dipped to $100 (pre-split) I bought some more and have been buying ever since. Never jump off a speeding locomotive, unless you are over 65 and planning retirement soon (if you are healthy you should never let your age determine that, unless you really hate your job), or just got bad news from your doctor. The only regret I have about AAPL is that I once sold 700 shares - that were on margin! In this low interest rate environment, Apple pays you to own its stock. You ride out the dips (and buy more, my other regret, that I didn't buy more AAPL in 2009) until the fundamentals change.
If 2009 taught us anything (besides the folly of having 100% of your wealth tied up in a house), it's that the Powers That Be (Treasury, the Fed, Wall Street and Big Investors) will guide the economy back to health (assuming there's a president who doesn't hate capitalism, so Obama gets credit here for listening to Bob Rubin). Point being, even after a crash (vs a correction), which has been a once in a generation phenomenon, the PTB's know what needs to be done and won't be experimenting and grasping in the dark and making things way worse like Hoover and FDR did. Not that we necessarily trust what Goldman says, but,
The one "problem" with Apple is single-digit growth. We're currently experiencing the fun "weeeee" of the old AFB 1 board, the LoveMyIpad days. But we don't have the double-digit growth of those days. Apple could not make more revenue right now if it specialized in counterfeiting machines. But single-digit growth is the ANALyst takeaway. So AAPL is classified as a value stock now (AAPL gets the last laugh because its one of the main reasons value outperformed growth stocks in 2019 ). Q1 was probably ONE BILLION DOLLARS A DAY but that is still single digit growth, so all the idjuts in the idjutshpere will not even notice that $AAPL is printing a billion a day. Apple obviously needs to always be on the lookout for new revenue sources. Wearbles seem to be WEAR it's at ATM.
It seems, and I'm hoping , that Tim and Luca have EPS engineering down to a science. The stock has exploded since Apple's last guidance, ($85.5-$89.5 billion) so $90B would be a nice round billion-a-day beat number that could make for a nice headline if any of the Financial Media are smart enough to do the math, Apple Beats, Becomes First Company Ever to Generate One Billion Dollars Per Day.
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Post by socal Film Composer on Jan 2, 2020 12:13:25 GMT -8
thanks all - yes plenty of cushion - we have about 77K common in our reg. brokerage, and 140K shares, via virtual calls with a $200 strike in my SEP - the SEP shares are the ones I'm always trying to figure out the downside risk for - i.e. - I always try and leave plenty of cushion on the leaps - both the time to weather downdrafts and enough of a buffer to margin up the share count as the price climbs - right now, I'm trying to figure out what basis for my 2021 leaps (which I'll roll over sometime in the next 6-9 months - my $200 calls are for June and Sept. 2020 respectively - My gut says not to get too greedy and keep the 2021 calls in the 220 to 230 strike range.
WOW - here we go to $300 - about time we get more in line w/the sector - I really have to credit cook - the pivot to services and now wearables were game changers. Now every iPhone sold is also a gateway to Apple Music, News, and T.V. - many more coming I'm sure. I think the VR "glasses" or whatever they are will be huge when the tech catches up - being a profession composer/producer I really admire the sound engineering expertise in the air pods pro - truly remarkable noise cancellation and audio performance in such small package -
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Post by hyci004 on Jan 2, 2020 12:20:42 GMT -8
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Jan 2, 2020 12:24:55 GMT -8
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Post by dreamRaj on Jan 2, 2020 12:53:12 GMT -8
YIPPEEE!!
We touched 300. I had to double-check that twice before typing this but, yep, we touched and crossed 300!!!!!
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 2, 2020 12:54:30 GMT -8
Or maybe Apple just should have bought HBO instead of the executive who was castoff from the ATT merger? I just don't see Apple programing HBO edginess. Can you imagine Tim Cook signing off on The Sopranos?
Hope I'm wrong - nobody would rather see Hollywood creatively destroyed like I would - but I still say Apple should have BOT DIS. Why start from zero when you could have just BOT the best?
3 hunnit!
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Jan 2, 2020 12:58:57 GMT -8
Wow!
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Post by aaplcrazie on Jan 2, 2020 13:01:26 GMT -8
Tim & The Sopranos Fuggetaboutit..... Bada Bing
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benoir
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Post by benoir on Jan 2, 2020 13:02:36 GMT -8
Fark yeah.....
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Post by hyci004 on Jan 2, 2020 13:03:12 GMT -8
Or maybe Apple just should have bought HBO instead of the executive who was castoff from the ATT merger? I just don't see Apple programing HBO edginess. Can you imagine Tim Cook signing off on The Sopranos? Hope I'm wrong - nobody would rather see Hollywood creatively destroyed like I would - but I still say Apple should have BOT DIS. Why start from zero when you could have just BOT the best? 3 hunnit! HBO wasn’t for sale because it was under Time Warner. Buying just HBO wasn’t even an option. AT&T acquired Time Warner for $85B.
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benoir
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Post by benoir on Jan 2, 2020 13:07:15 GMT -8
$300 or $2100 in the old language or $4200 in the even older language.
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Post by CdnPhoto on Jan 2, 2020 13:17:46 GMT -8
$300 or $2100 in the old language or $4200 in the even older language. $16,800 in really old language
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Jan 2, 2020 13:25:30 GMT -8
Or maybe Apple just should have bought HBO instead of the executive who was castoff from the ATT merger? I just don't see Apple programing HBO edginess. Can you imagine Tim Cook signing off on The Sopranos? Hope I'm wrong - nobody would rather see Hollywood creatively destroyed like I would - but I still say Apple should have BOT DIS. Why start from zero when you could have just BOT the best? 3 hunnit! I have AppleTV+ and Disney+. Disney+ is so much better than what Apple is offering. Disney+ is easer to navigate and a larger library to choose from. The people that I've talked to about AppleTV+ biggest complaint is the same as Prime Video. If I'm going to pay for a streaming service why is only some of the content included in the subscription? I seldom look at Prime Video.
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Dave
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Post by Dave on Jan 2, 2020 13:25:45 GMT -8
Edit, double post.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 2, 2020 13:25:55 GMT -8
Or maybe Apple just should have bought HBO instead of the executive who was castoff from the ATT merger? I just don't see Apple programing HBO edginess. Can you imagine Tim Cook signing off on The Sopranos? Hope I'm wrong - nobody would rather see Hollywood creatively destroyed like I would - but I still say Apple should have BOT DIS. Why start from zero when you could have just BOT the best? 3 hunnit! HBO wasn’t for sale because it was under Time Warner. Buying just HBO wasn’t even an option. AT&T acquired Time Warner for $85B. I mean pre-merger, as I tried to imply in my original post. Everything has a price. Just watch DIS spin off ESPN. Happy day.
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