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Post by Deleted on Jan 11, 2013 0:01:57 GMT -8
Posted this under Thursday as well (last post of day Pacific Stand Time?).
As of the Close Wednesday Jan 9, the ratio of new Puts to new Calls dropped to .14:1. This at the same time that the total number of new options written declined (the decline was due to the dramatic drop off in new Puts).
I have not seen this before, but interpret it as VERY bullish.
I'll have Thursday Closing Put/Call data at the Open this morning. It's only 6:30 hours away, but I'll be there.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 11, 2013 0:41:25 GMT -8
Another Tim Cook interview in China. Apple 3.0 continues a media interfacing evolution: money.cnn.com/m/#!/2013/01/11/technology/china-tim-cook-apple.json?category=Latest%20News
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 11, 2013 0:41:53 GMT -8
Stk Calls Puts 515 3,863 8,650 520 8,270 9,324 525 11,760 6,482 530 13,331 4,526
Interestingly, the 520 puts grew their lead over the calls. But that 525 call wall is huge.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 11, 2013 0:53:16 GMT -8
This is promising, NTT Docomo is the one of the most important future iPhone carriers after China Mobile.
From Appleinsider:
Japan's NTT DoCoMo wants iPhone access as Apple partners gain subscribers By Mikey Campbell
Japan's No. 1 cellular carrier NTT DoCoMo on Friday said it would be willing to negotiate a deal to sell the iPhone, a device that has become a driving force in net subscriber growth for Apple's partner carriers in the country.
The president of NTT DoCoMo, Katoru Katō, said his company would be willing to add the iPhone to its existing lineup if the telecom can reach a mutually beneficial arrangement with Apple, reports the Nikkan Kogyo Shimbun (via Brightwire).
Apple requires partner carriers to sell a predetermined amount of iPhones per year and Kato said that DoCoMo can reach that number if the handset accounts for 20 to 30 percent of the company's overall smartphone sales. The telecom expects to bring in over $11 billion from Android-related e-commerce sales by the end of 2015.
A DoCoMo iPhone may not happen anytime soon, however, as the company is only now in preliminary negotiations to bring Apple's popular device onto its smartphone network.
News of Kato's willingness to adopt the iPhone comes one day after the Telecommunications Carriers Association announced that rival SoftBank raked in the most subscribers in December, signing up a total of 274,700 net contracts. The Japanese telecom, which started in the mobile industry after taking over Vodafone's Japan business, recently expanded into the U.S. after buying a controlling interest in Sprint.
Coming in second was KDDI with 239,200 net contracts while DoCoMo was third with 235,100 net subs. The statistics come one month after NTT DoCoMo announced its biggest ever net loss of subscribers in November, blaming the mass exodus on the iPhone.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 11, 2013 1:07:01 GMT -8
20%-30% of NTT Docomos target for this years smartphone sales = 2.6 - 3.9 million iPhones
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Post by Deleted on Jan 11, 2013 1:27:07 GMT -8
Hmmm...more positive news!
(Apple is going to revolutionize TV the exact same way it did with music: Cutting hard to broker deals one country at a time).
From The Next Web:
Apple adds subscription TV and movie service Watchever to Apple TV in Germany
Apple has added a rare new app and service to the Apple TV, this time in Germany. After seeing a support entry that detailed an update to Apple TV services which listed Watchever, I checked around and German users have been seeing a new app on the home screen for the subscription video on demand service.
Essentially a German version of Hulu launched by Vivendi this month, it offers local, European and international movies and TV series for €8.99 a month. Key features include the ability to choose between a German dubbed version of international movies, or the original. There is also a personal recommendation algorithm àla Netflix.
This marks the first time that Apple has added an international-specific service. and the first time that the service is available in only one region. It does not appear to be available on Apple TVs outside of Germany. This could be the start of a trend in which Apple cuts deals for regions where there is a strong localized offering that delivers content appealing to Apple TV owners there.
Apple has added a handful of these apps to the home screen since the launch of its new ‘iPhone-like’ interface. The Wall Street Journal Live app (which was briefly updated for the election, then reverted), the MLB, NBA and NHL apps among them. Each of these additional icons has related directly to a third-party media service of some sort, save one. Apple’s own iTunes Festival app appears when the event is happening and then makes its way off once it’s complete.
Aside from the Wall Street Journal, which can be viewed sans login, the apps are all subscription-based as well. This would, of course, contribute to Apple’s bottom line via whatever revenue split deal it cuts with these exclusive providers
German Apple TV users should be able to get the new app to appear by rebooting their devices. We’ve reached out to Apple to confirm the launch.
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Post by Big Al on Jan 11, 2013 1:39:43 GMT -8
Hmmm...more positive news! (Apple is going to revolutionize TV the exact same way it did with music: Cutting hard to broker deals one country at a time). From The Next Web: Apple adds subscription TV and movie service Watchever to Apple TV in Germany Apple has added a rare new app and service to the Apple TV, this time in Germany. After seeing a support entry that detailed an update to Apple TV services which listed Watchever, I checked around and German users have been seeing a new app on the home screen for the subscription video on demand service. Essentially a German version of Hulu launched by Vivendi this month, it offers local, European and international movies and TV series for €8.99 a month. Key features include the ability to choose between a German dubbed version of international movies, or the original. There is also a personal recommendation algorithm àla Netflix. This marks the first time that Apple has added an international-specific service. and the first time that the service is available in only one region. It does not appear to be available on Apple TVs outside of Germany. This could be the start of a trend in which Apple cuts deals for regions where there is a strong localized offering that delivers content appealing to Apple TV owners there. Apple has added a handful of these apps to the home screen since the launch of its new ‘iPhone-like’ interface. The Wall Street Journal Live app (which was briefly updated for the election, then reverted), the MLB, NBA and NHL apps among them. Each of these additional icons has related directly to a third-party media service of some sort, save one. Apple’s own iTunes Festival app appears when the event is happening and then makes its way off once it’s complete. Aside from the Wall Street Journal, which can be viewed sans login, the apps are all subscription-based as well. This would, of course, contribute to Apple’s bottom line via whatever revenue split deal it cuts with these exclusive providers German Apple TV users should be able to get the new app to appear by rebooting their devices. We’ve reached out to Apple to confirm the launch. Interesting. I will check this when I get home later tonight.
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Post by rob_london on Jan 11, 2013 1:42:26 GMT -8
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Post by Big Al on Jan 11, 2013 4:27:01 GMT -8
Regarding Walmart's new iPhone plan, am I correct in thinking that those phones will be activated through Straight Talk/Tracfone onto either the AT&T or VZ networks? So in terms of counting unit sales in the future, we'll still be counting activations only on Sprint, AT&T, VZ, and soon T-Mobile? It would be interesting to know this. Also, are there other carriers in the US which currently sell the iPhone, but did not during Q1 2012?
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Post by redinaustin on Jan 11, 2013 5:01:32 GMT -8
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Post by lucy on Jan 11, 2013 5:17:00 GMT -8
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Post by highway2heel on Jan 11, 2013 5:23:03 GMT -8
Thanks for posting that...
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Post by fas550 on Jan 11, 2013 5:27:01 GMT -8
Posted this under Thursday as well (last post of day Pacific Stand Time?). As of the Close Wednesday Jan 9, the ratio of new Puts to new Calls dropped to .14:1. This at the same time that the total number of new options written declined (the decline was due to the dramatic drop off in new Puts). I have not seen this before, but interpret it as VERY bullish. I'll have Thursday Closing Put/Call data at the Open this morning. It's only 6:30 hours away, but I'll be there. Gregg really appreciate the work you are doing on the options analysis. Looks very promising loosely speaking as a leading indicator tool.
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Post by appledoc on Jan 11, 2013 5:30:11 GMT -8
Stk Calls Puts 515 3,863 8,650 520 8,270 9,324 525 11,760 6,482 530 13,331 4,526 Interestingly, the 520 puts grew their lead over the calls. But that 525 call wall is huge. From yesterday... Stk Calls Puts 515 3,188 6,677 520 6,411 7,331 525 9,504 6,100 530 12,531 4,869 Probably a bunch of 515/520 put spreads and 520/525 call spreads being opened.
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Post by hledgard on Jan 11, 2013 5:36:59 GMT -8
i continue to believe that much of the hype, distortion, low P/e, Cramer comments, etc. has to do with the high and very visible price of AAPL.
Google has a high price, but is much more stable and not in the mind's eye like Apple. Same for Amazon.
I strongly believe Apple should make a 10:1 split. I believe things would then settle down, and AAPL's P/E ratio would slowly rise.
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Post by Big Al on Jan 11, 2013 5:39:54 GMT -8
Interesting 2004 blog post by Mark Cuban on The MarketThe link does not work?
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Post by prazan on Jan 11, 2013 5:50:58 GMT -8
Regarding Walmart's new iPhone plan, am I correct in thinking that those phones will be activated through Straight Talk/Tracfone onto either the AT&T or VZ networks? So in terms of counting unit sales in the future, we'll still be counting activations only on Sprint, AT&T, VZ, and soon T-Mobile? It would be interesting to know this. Also, are there other carriers in the US which currently sell the iPhone, but did not during Q1 2012? As far as I understand, no. Regional carriers and T-Mobile carry a number of iPhone users on their networks, but those phones are jailbroken and in many cases purchased second-hand. In the US the only carriers authorized to sell are AT&T, Verizon, and Sprint. Soon T-Mobile.
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Post by redinaustin on Jan 11, 2013 5:54:16 GMT -8
Interesting 2004 blog post by Mark Cuban on The MarketThe link does not work? (sorry) Try it now
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Post by fas550 on Jan 11, 2013 6:02:27 GMT -8
Yes thanks for posting this. There has been a huge wall of options (like over 60k of $600 strike) for many months. While this does look positive I have a couple of reservations: First is my belief that this price depression is not caused by one thing but many factors. On the other hand once they have expired it certainly can't hurt. Second is how are these option holders keeping the price depressed? I am not in the price manipulation camp given the low short interest, huge capital required to manipulate, institutional ownership only stands at 66% and simply other targets are less risky to manipulate. Third and I don't mean to be flippant but so what happens after the expiration? I'm not pollyannaish in that we all wake up the day after and all those ex holders of $600 start buying and push the price up. I'm certainly not saying all this is or is not so and that expiration date is in fact a positive, but going to my first point this drop is probably not the result of 1 thing and to put all hopes in 1 thing has been proven many times to be a setup for disappointment. I do view the expiration date just another piece of wall being brought down that make a rise in price less resistant and more likely.
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Post by Rupert on Jan 11, 2013 6:12:40 GMT -8
Resistance/Support Friday 01/11/2013
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 11, 2013 6:13:57 GMT -8
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Post by po1nt on Jan 11, 2013 6:25:09 GMT -8
I agree. We have first weekend sales #'s from china, and both VZ and ATT smartphones sales #'s before the conference calls, and now this. It just feels like Cook is reaching out a little here. OR its all just confirmation bias
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Post by fas550 on Jan 11, 2013 6:25:33 GMT -8
Let me introduce you to Fib S2 and perhaps Fib S3 will drop by later. Lets hope he doesn't decide to stay.
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Post by fas550 on Jan 11, 2013 6:29:35 GMT -8
I really, really hope so as this announcement will be big. I really, really hope TC didn't have to give to much to China Mobile I really, really believe the naysayers will claim/insist/know he did and this will cause margin loss therefore a reason not to buy. :-)
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 11, 2013 6:33:09 GMT -8
Benzinga (yes, I know : now saying that Reuters pulled the denial by Schiller that there was not going to be an inexpensive phone built and they aren't replacing the article. Thinks there may have been an error in the report or quote. If you want to read the full story it is titled: Did Apple Unofficially Confirm a Low-Cost iPhone? I'd rather not post a link to Benzinga -
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Post by renee on Jan 11, 2013 6:43:33 GMT -8
Second is how are these option holders keeping the price depressed? If the market makers bought the stock in August to hedge the calls they were selling and the calls are now closed out at a huge discount or worthless, they can now sell the stock to put downward pressure on the price. They may sell the stock for less than they paid, but considering the huge gains they made on the options (and the fact that downward pressure guarantees them further profits on expiring options), they are ahead. As for what will happen next, assuming Aapl can come up with reasonable numbers Jan 23rd, the MM's can simply turn off the negative FUD and up the positive FUD and - presto - a whole new crop of greedy investors will buy new calls. The whole process will begin again. Rinse and repeat. I have lost a lot of money in the last 3 months, but learned some valuable lessons that, hopefully, will help me from making the same mistakes again (stay tuned for my new batch of mistakes in 2013!).
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Post by ibuyer on Jan 11, 2013 6:46:40 GMT -8
I really, really hope so as this announcement will be big. I really, really hope TC didn't have to give to much to China Mobile I really, really believe the naysayers will claim/insist/know he did and this will cause margin loss therefore a reason not to buy. :-) I really hope it is a fair deal. CM knows it has leverage and the govt behind it. Also CM knows exactly what is going on with its share price and Samsung etc. I hope it is a fair deal and not a quick deal.
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Post by PikesPique on Jan 11, 2013 6:49:04 GMT -8
Renee,
If you'd care to share those lessons in the Lessons Learned thread, I'm sure many of us would appreciate it. Thank you.
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Post by fas550 on Jan 11, 2013 6:53:59 GMT -8
Benzinga (yes, I know : now saying that Reuters pulled the denial by Schiller that there was not going to be an inexpensive phone built and they aren't replacing the article. Thinks there may have been an error in the report or quote. If you want to read the full story it is titled: Did Apple Unofficially Confirm a Low-Cost iPhone? I'd rather not post a link to Benzinga - I was suspicious when the only thing quoted was half a sentence beginning with the word "never". In essence I have "Never" heard a marketing VP use the word "Never" when talking futures. First I could not imagine the context where the chief marketing person would basically tell their largest potential consumer base something like this, Interviewer: "Mr Shiller can you please tell the Chinese consumers eager to buy you products what your plans are to meet their needs?" Shiller: "Certainly, Fcuk them, we will never ..." We don't even know the question asked or the context to what he answered. I can't confirm but I heard the question was in reference to whether or not Apple would have an answer to a newer category device just above a "feature phone" basically a feature phone pretending to be a smartphone. If he was asked about that or a feature phone, yes I believe may have said that is not their speciality and they have no plans go there.
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Post by greyfox15 on Jan 11, 2013 6:58:48 GMT -8
Please realize a few things that would make sense holding this China Mobil deal back. China Mobil has govt. sponsership and ownership. aapl is not only negotiating with Mobil management but govt. politicians. Solely a guess on my part, but perhaps that's why there is the un-issued/public progress report signed by TC and head of Mobil. Graft and payoffs are ingrained in China's way of life. NY Times has been running series of wealthy chinese politicians and their relatives. $'s wouldn't be a problem for aapl, but, though a accepted way of doing business in China, payoffs are illegal for US corps.
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