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Post by prazan on Jan 11, 2013 12:27:40 GMT -8
I'm sure the folks who run CNBC have noticed that negative news about Apple drives ratings. The more you watch, and the more you rant about the baseness of their coverage, the greater the publicity and the higher the ratings. The higher the ratings, the more money they make. If you truly dislike their coverage of Apple, and find it destructive to your financial interests, ignore them.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 11, 2013 12:43:15 GMT -8
I'm sure the folks who run CNBC have noticed that negative news about Apple drives ratings. The more you watch, and the more you rant about the baseness of their coverage, the greater the publicity and the higher the ratings. The higher the ratings, the more money they make. If you truly dislike their coverage of Apple, and find it destructive to your financial interests, ignore them. I officially cut all ties to CNBC last night, as I removed The Kudlow Report from my DVR record list, after two straight nights of his RINO bullshit on gun control. I don't watch CNBC anymore. Occasionally I stumble onto one of their videos online. But they really are the National Enquirer of financial media.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 11, 2013 12:45:16 GMT -8
At least Max Pain theory is hopefully going to keep us above $520 today it seems...
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Post by joel90069 on Jan 11, 2013 12:48:44 GMT -8
I'm sure the folks who run CNBC have noticed that negative news about Apple drives ratings. The more you watch, and the more you rant about the baseness of their coverage, the greater the publicity and the higher the ratings. The higher the ratings, the more money they make. If you truly dislike their coverage of Apple, and find it destructive to your financial interests, ignore them. I officially cut all ties to CNBC last night, as I removed The Kudlow Report from my DVR record list, after two straight nights of his RINO bullshit on gun control. I don't watch CNBC anymore. Occasionally I stumble onto one of their videos online. But they really are the National Enquirer of financial media. I agree entirely. I stopped watching CNBC about a month ago.
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Post by wheeles on Jan 11, 2013 12:56:50 GMT -8
I officially cut all ties to CNBC last night, as I removed The Kudlow Report from my DVR record list, after two straight nights of his RINO bullshit on gun control. It could be worse. You could have Piers Morgan as a fellow countryman and "supporter" of your football team offering his words of wisdom on that too.
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Post by fas550 on Jan 11, 2013 12:58:44 GMT -8
I'm sure the folks who run CNBC have noticed that negative news about Apple drives ratings. The more you watch, and the more you rant about the baseness of their coverage, the greater the publicity and the higher the ratings. The higher the ratings, the more money they make. If you truly dislike their coverage of Apple, and find it destructive to your financial interests, ignore them. I officially cut all ties to CNBC last night, as I removed The Kudlow Report from my DVR record list, after two straight nights of his RINO bullshit on gun control. I don't watch CNBC anymore. Occasionally I stumble onto one of their videos online. But they really are the National Enquirer of financial media. I pledge to turn them off
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bud777
fire starter
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Post by bud777 on Jan 11, 2013 13:01:18 GMT -8
Worth a look: I question 1) HTH does Rein know how close Apple and CM are to a deal? 2) HTH does Rein know whether iPhone 5 has a CM-compatible radio? 3) To what degree does CU and CT bleed customers from CM because they have the iPhone, and how long can CM let it go on? With regard to number 2, IFixit reported the the iPhone5 chipset carried support for the TD-SCDMA standard thenextweb.com/asia/2012/09/25/is-apple-gearing-mid-cycle-release-iphone-5-china-mobile/I was under the impression that Apple could turn it on just like they can switch a phone from CDMA to GSM.
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Post by ibuyer on Jan 11, 2013 13:10:37 GMT -8
Chart from Berstein from BI Today www.businessinsider.com/bernstein-iphone-estimate-2013-1Basically, limited downside for iPhone units this quarter. Can be a blowout on carrier ramp and sell in. However, IMO March quarter is what the street will look for and blowout last quarter might be a pull forward. Therefore, guidance will be so important. Attachments:
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 11, 2013 13:18:08 GMT -8
Worth a look: I question 1) HTH does Rein know how close Apple and CM are to a deal? 2) HTH does Rein know whether iPhone 5 has a CM-compatible radio? 3) To what degree does CU and CT bleed customers from CM because they have the iPhone, and how long can CM let it go on? With regard to number 2, IFixit reported the the iPhone5 chipset carried support for the TD-SCDMA standard thenextweb.com/asia/2012/09/25/is-apple-gearing-mid-cycle-release-iphone-5-china-mobile/I was under the impression that Apple could turn it on just like they can switch a phone from CDMA to GSM. That's what I thought. But I am unaware of iFixit's record for veracity.
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Post by Lstream on Jan 11, 2013 13:28:19 GMT -8
I'm sure the folks who run CNBC have noticed that negative news about Apple drives ratings. The more you watch, and the more you rant about the baseness of their coverage, the greater the publicity and the higher the ratings. The higher the ratings, the more money they make. If you truly dislike their coverage of Apple, and find it destructive to your financial interests, ignore them. +1. Stopped watching that steaming pile of BS years ago.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 11, 2013 13:37:13 GMT -8
JD - everyone is clearly completely speculating unless they were sitting in the same room as where the discussion was happening. That being said, I just have the sense that TC is dropping hints. And yes, AAPL does not have the leverage - I believe - in China that it may in other areas of the globe but I do think that there is a compromise somewhere that can be mutually beneficial and fair. For a company that is sssooo creative - they can be creative about the deals they cut as well....just get them cut!
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Post by tuffett on Jan 11, 2013 13:45:33 GMT -8
Just as Apple gets discounts for their massive orders for components, so should CM for having almost 10% of the global population on their network. It's a staggering number. I certainly hope Apple isn't against offering slightly better terms than usual, because it would be a good deal nonetheless. China is the area of growth for the near future and Apple needs to be available to take part it, more than they already are.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 11, 2013 14:27:56 GMT -8
Just as Apple gets discounts for their massive orders for components, so should CM for having almost 10% of the global population on their network. It's a staggering number. I certainly hope Apple isn't against offering slightly better terms than usual, because it would be a good deal nonetheless. China is the area of growth for the near future and Apple needs to be available to take part it, more than they already are. Exactly.
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Post by rosie on Jan 11, 2013 14:28:09 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 11, 2013 14:28:30 GMT -8
Apple may have less leverage because of CM's sheer size, but it has leverage all right. China Unicom/Telecom gleefully stealing customers with their more, well, _standard_ networks, while China Mobile already sees iPhone's popularity with millions of iPhones EDGE-ing along on its network (maybe 20M+ by now? - www.engadget.com/2012/03/05/china-mobile-iphone-sales-subscribers-unlocked/ ) With LTE, those millions of customers can only put up with this slow-data nonsense for so long.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 11, 2013 14:39:50 GMT -8
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Post by ibuyer on Jan 11, 2013 14:44:27 GMT -8
Apple may have less leverage because of CM's sheer size, but it has leverage all right. China Unicom/Telecom gleefully stealing customers with their more, well, _standard_ networks, while China Mobile already sees iPhone's popularity with millions of iPhones EDGE-ing along on its network (maybe 20M+ by now? - www.engadget.com/2012/03/05/china-mobile-iphone-sales-subscribers-unlocked/ ) With LTE, those millions of customers can only put up with this slow-data nonsense for so long. CM and NTT DoCoMo are coming to the table now because they finally feel that it is no longer Apples way or the highway. Notice all carriers try to get leverage on suppliers. You are right about LTE but did you know PERMITs are only expected to be issued in 2013 in China. CM can wait until 2014.
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Post by rob_london on Jan 11, 2013 14:49:35 GMT -8
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Post by ibuyer on Jan 11, 2013 14:50:40 GMT -8
Very interesting but it will take quite a while for him to gain the confidence of managment team (rightly so). That is unless something is happening to PO.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 11, 2013 14:57:56 GMT -8
Another point: EDGE may be barely acceptable for a smartphone, but is surely unacceptable for a tablet.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 11, 2013 15:01:03 GMT -8
The point is that it is MUTUALLY BENEFICIAL ... they just need to figure out the split here but AAPL should be able to be creative in a myriad of ways. There is no reason this should not happen - DEFINITELY in 2013 - and quite frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if it happens sooner rather than later given what seems to be a flurry of activity and press....WAG.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 11, 2013 15:01:34 GMT -8
I also have some Feb '13 425-450 BCS. Purchased in Nov/Dec at average price of 21-something. What do I do with those? Mark, sorry, did not read this until now. IMHO, those *should* be fine, but no one can predict the future and all that. I've been burned so many times by front month options -- even those that I considered ultra-conservative/ safe -- that I am waaay too risk averse (gun shy) to hold anything expiring anytime soon. Extra wiggle room gives me more time to be right. Bryan, VERY glad it's worked out for you holding your JAN'13 450/500s this long. Not a risk this chicken is willing to take. I'm with Mace re: my preference to "risk a little to make a lot" versus "risking a lot to make a little."
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 11, 2013 15:02:52 GMT -8
A few of us are working on an App that breaks daily change in OI by Expiry AND Strike. This effort is part of my P/C Ratio analysis (what's the big boys doing with their money?). I received first efforts today. LOVE it!!!!!! Gregg really appreciate the work you are doing on the options analysis. Looks very promising loosely speaking as a leading indicator tool. +1
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Post by macwire on Jan 11, 2013 15:10:52 GMT -8
I officially cut all ties to CNBC last night, as I removed The Kudlow Report from my DVR record list, after two straight nights of his RINO bullshit on gun control. It could be worse. You could have Piers Morgan as a fellow countryman and "supporter" of your football team offering his words of wisdom on that too. AND ITS ARRRRRRSENAL ARSENAL FC WE'RE BY FAR THE GREATEST TEAM THE WORLD HAS EVER SEEN gunners!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 11, 2013 15:15:36 GMT -8
Since China Mobile has an HK subsidiary or something, maybe that'll be the first clue. It's also China Mobile's first LTE market, having opened last month.
IMHO, there's no real need to forge an agreement until LTE gets going for China Mobile, unless some huge quantity of competitors' TD-LTE compatible smartphones are flooding the market (or will very soon).
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 11, 2013 15:41:29 GMT -8
Thank you, Lucy!!! First is my belief that this price depression is not caused by one thing but many factors. On the other hand once they have expired it certainly can't hurt. Second is how are these option holders keeping the price depressed? I am not in the price manipulation camp given the low short interest, huge capital required to manipulate, institutional ownership only stands at 66% and simply other targets are less risky to manipulate. Third and I don't mean to be flippant but so what happens after the expiration? I'm not pollyannaish in that we all wake up the day after and all those ex holders of $600 start buying and push the price up. I'm certainly not saying all this is or is not so and that expiration date is in fact a positive, but going to my first point this drop is probably not the result of 1 thing and to put all hopes in 1 thing has been proven many times to be a setup for disappointment. I do view the expiration date just another piece of wall being brought down that make a rise in price less resistant and more likely. Great post!! All MHO: Many factors combine to influence sentiment, which influences supply and demand, which dictates price movement. The debate over "manipulation" is one of semantics. Equities are hedged with options and vice-versa. Institutions hedge long equities with options (sell calls or buy puts). Hedge funds hedge long/short equities with options (sell calls or sell puts). Commercial traders and market makers hedge short options with long/short stock. Retail mostly speculates with options, most buying calls. Institutional ownership has fallen approximately 3%. When equity buyers hold out for lower prices, prices fall. When equity sellers hold out for higher prices, prices rise.
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Post by blofeld on Jan 11, 2013 17:34:51 GMT -8
Today at 3:01am, greggthurman wrote: Posted this under Thursday as well (last post of day Pacific Stand Time?).
As of the Close Wednesday Jan 9, the ratio of new Puts to new Calls dropped to .14:1. This at the same time that the total number of new options written declined (the decline was due to the dramatic drop off in new Puts).
I have not seen this before, but interpret it as VERY bullish.
I'll have Thursday Closing Put/Call data at the Open this morning. It's only 6:30 hours away, but I'll be there.
Gregg - How do you know this is bullish? The SeekiingAlpha post someone linked to today (http://seekingalpha.com/author/joe-springer/articles) suggests that the volume of calls in the fall was actually a BEARISH sign for the price action in the next 2 months...
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