Post by 4aapl on Oct 3, 2020 20:02:37 GMT -8
I've read through Manias, Panics, and Crashes a couple times now, first in late 2000 while camping in Colorado and working on speed reading, and then in 2010 or so. The interesting part in that reading was with the "lender of last resort", basically calling out perfectly what happened in 2008, needing to let one or more fail while saving most. For the video version, Wall Street Money Never Sleeps captured it, though I didn't check to see how accurate its depiction was.
Somewhere over the years I wondered a bit about tulipmania, and if one could buy those tulips now. It turns out that at least some bulbs are no longer available, since the basis of the rarity was the mosaic virus that gave them sometimes interesting patterns, but could make them less prolific and slowly kill them off.
ms.mcmaster.ca/~grasselli/Garber89.pdf
FWIW, that article feels there wasn't truly a mania, instead not being widespread for the most part, and limited in scope and timeframe.
With technology and understanding, there are now bulbs without the virus that are similar. Regardless, that article goes into the price tracking of the most expensive bulbs in 1637, and again in 1707. In both cases the most expensive bulbs came down to average par value over time. Basically it was a supply/demand game, where the trendiest could get high prices, but lost that advantage as more were propagated and they lost the trendiness factor.
That happens across a lot of spaces, particularly when limited supply is hit by massive amounts of money from other sources. Apple has even occasionally gotten into this market, with things like the 20th anniversary Mac, the G4 Cube, and the ceramic Edition Apple Watches. There is space for this, and a demand. But it can take away focus.
If you haven't read Manias, Panics, and Crashes, check out a copy sometime. Kindleberger wrote the original, though Aliber adds to it to keep it up to date with current situations. I'll add a copy to my bookshelf sometime, but for this read I just got it from our library.
As for Broken Tulips, there's a lot of info out there, and with our squirrels/rabbits/moles/voles, not to mention snow, it seems foolish to spend too much time trying to grow something specific. A pack of Rembrandts might get things in the right ballpark, even if they are said to only be a knock-off. But some broken tulips are available, along with more info: oldhousegardens.com/Hortus#brokenTulips
Somewhere over the years I wondered a bit about tulipmania, and if one could buy those tulips now. It turns out that at least some bulbs are no longer available, since the basis of the rarity was the mosaic virus that gave them sometimes interesting patterns, but could make them less prolific and slowly kill them off.
ms.mcmaster.ca/~grasselli/Garber89.pdf
Tulips are subject to invasion by a mosaic virus whose important effect, called "breaking," is to produce remarkable patterns on the flower, some of which are considered beautiful. The pattern imposed on a particular flower cannot be reproduced through seed propaga- tion: seeds will produce bulbs that yield a common flower since they are unaffected by the virus. These bulbs may themselves eventually "break" at some unknown date but into a pattern that may not be remarkable. A specific pattern can be reproduced by cultivating the buds into new bulbs.
As another effect, the mosaic virus makes the bulb sickly and re- duces its rate of reproduction.' Smith (1937, p. 413) states that bro- ken bulbs do not "proliferate as freely" as undiseased plants but that this weakening need not cause broken bulbs to succumb, giving as an example the broken Zomerschoon, which has been actively cultivated since 1620.'1 Van Slogteren (1960) claims that the mosaic virus may cause total loss of a plant or a 10-20 percent reduction in propagation rates.
As another effect, the mosaic virus makes the bulb sickly and re- duces its rate of reproduction.' Smith (1937, p. 413) states that bro- ken bulbs do not "proliferate as freely" as undiseased plants but that this weakening need not cause broken bulbs to succumb, giving as an example the broken Zomerschoon, which has been actively cultivated since 1620.'1 Van Slogteren (1960) claims that the mosaic virus may cause total loss of a plant or a 10-20 percent reduction in propagation rates.
FWIW, that article feels there wasn't truly a mania, instead not being widespread for the most part, and limited in scope and timeframe.
With technology and understanding, there are now bulbs without the virus that are similar. Regardless, that article goes into the price tracking of the most expensive bulbs in 1637, and again in 1707. In both cases the most expensive bulbs came down to average par value over time. Basically it was a supply/demand game, where the trendiest could get high prices, but lost that advantage as more were propagated and they lost the trendiness factor.
That happens across a lot of spaces, particularly when limited supply is hit by massive amounts of money from other sources. Apple has even occasionally gotten into this market, with things like the 20th anniversary Mac, the G4 Cube, and the ceramic Edition Apple Watches. There is space for this, and a demand. But it can take away focus.
If you haven't read Manias, Panics, and Crashes, check out a copy sometime. Kindleberger wrote the original, though Aliber adds to it to keep it up to date with current situations. I'll add a copy to my bookshelf sometime, but for this read I just got it from our library.
As for Broken Tulips, there's a lot of info out there, and with our squirrels/rabbits/moles/voles, not to mention snow, it seems foolish to spend too much time trying to grow something specific. A pack of Rembrandts might get things in the right ballpark, even if they are said to only be a knock-off. But some broken tulips are available, along with more info: oldhousegardens.com/Hortus#brokenTulips