Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 8, 2012 11:08:14 GMT -8
No one who reads this thread can say today's price action was unexpected. Wow, that sounds...authoritative. What were we expecting, though? I mean, if we were expecting down, ALL of us would've bought some small BPS or something, right?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 8, 2012 12:18:38 GMT -8
In a WTF is going on thought, the VXAPL is at 39 today, up +2. The disconcerting part is that this is usually a level to sell. WS is really doing a number on me. It's tough to sell calls when AAPL is down, but you could sell puts or put spreads. Just a thought. "Traditionally", I thought one expects IV to spike when a stock is being sold off in between events. Kind of the way the VIX spikes when the S&P tumbles (not like VIX is all that tradable, though).
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 8, 2012 12:29:09 GMT -8
No one who reads this thread can say today's price action was unexpected. Wow, that sounds...authoritative. What were we expecting, though? I mean, if we were expecting down, ALL of us would've bought some small BPS or something, right? Nonono...I didn't mean to sound authoritative! I mean...in comparison to April... In April, *I* was surprised by the drop. (Mace was not.) This one...we have been tracking this downtrend for the last two weeks in this thread. We've spent a lot of time (and charts) talking about possible downside targets and the confluence in the 637 area. So today, when I read elsewhere about people being shocked/surprised/blindsided, I thought: no one who reads this thread should have felt any of those things. That's what I meant.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 8, 2012 12:35:32 GMT -8
So true. I'm just a lurker here, but this seems a good opportunity to show my appreciation for you and all the other folks on this board. It's amazing how much I learn here, and even if I didn't manage to sell when the stock was higher I am much better prepared for this drop (unlike in horrible horrible April/May). Thanks!!!
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 8, 2012 12:37:21 GMT -8
In a WTF is going on thought, the VXAPL is at 39 today, up +2. The disconcerting part is that this is usually a level to sell. WS is really doing a number on me. Mark, I felt the same disorientation pre-JUL'12 earnings when VXAPL was on the ground.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 8, 2012 13:00:54 GMT -8
Oh, I see iPad...it's just that you almost sounded...scary
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 8, 2012 13:03:26 GMT -8
I'M NOT SCARY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I'M WARM AND FUZZY, SWEETNESS AND LIGHT, DAMN IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 8, 2012 13:05:01 GMT -8
AHHHHHHHHHH! OK!!!!!!!! I GET IT!!!!!!!!!!! I have made a 100% Fibonacci retracement behind the chair.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 8, 2012 13:10:52 GMT -8
ROFL!!!!!!!!!!
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 8, 2012 13:35:13 GMT -8
Didn't catch the name - but a technician on CNBC (a guest) just said that AAPL is just pausing. But when asked, he said it can go to $570 and there he would be a buyer. After I puked, I poured myself a bottle of wine - yes, I meant to say "bottle," not glass.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 8, 2012 13:40:23 GMT -8
Didn't catch the name - but a technician on CNBC (a guest) just said that AAPL is just pausing. But when asked, he said it can go to $570 and there he would be a buyer. After I puked, I poured myself a bottle of wine - yes, I meant to say "bottle," not glass. Phoebes, on the next bounce, consider some cheap, throwaway puts or bear spreads. Way OTM. Takes the edge off.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 8, 2012 13:43:04 GMT -8
Maybe keep it to verticals? AAPL IV is getting high, and it's not because of earnings.
OTOH, I expect AAPL IV to deflate, quickly, post-earnings...
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 8, 2012 13:50:04 GMT -8
Good point(s).
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 8, 2012 13:59:35 GMT -8
iPad - are you going to reassess what the landscape looks like after today's battle? Any closer to taking the hill?...or are we still in the ditch surrounded by the enemy? For now, it looks like 620 (your 618ish) is almost a self fulfilling prophecy. ugh.
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 8, 2012 14:08:58 GMT -8
Didn't catch the name - but a technician on CNBC (a guest) just said that AAPL is just pausing. But when asked, he said it can go to $570 and there he would be a buyer. After I puked, I poured myself a bottle of wine - yes, I meant to say "bottle," not glass. Phoebes, on the next bounce, consider some cheap, throwaway puts or bear spreads. Way OTM. Takes the edge off. I have done that but I don' t always line up the maturities and that's exactly when it comes to bite me in the butt!
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Post by tradermac on Oct 8, 2012 14:28:52 GMT -8
We closed below the lower BB today. Only happens a couple times each year. This has got to be a good sign right... right?
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 8, 2012 14:29:52 GMT -8
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Post by ccs on Oct 8, 2012 14:32:27 GMT -8
Didn't catch the name - but a technician on CNBC (a guest) just said that AAPL is just pausing. But when asked, he said it can go to $570 and there he would be a buyer. After I puked, I poured myself a bottle of wine - yes, I meant to say "bottle," not glass. Chris Verrone
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 8, 2012 14:32:48 GMT -8
LOL! He said "oh hey why don't I just do a whole video on AAPL" earlier that day.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 8, 2012 15:06:40 GMT -8
Ole' Scott is drinking the cool-aid on IPhone 5 shortages, with his story about going to the Short Hills Mall and finding 3 week waits, which he attributes to delays in production.. He must have been visiting his triathlon buddy, Guy Adami, who lives in that area (very affluent).
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 8, 2012 16:16:13 GMT -8
He's a trader, not an analyst.
Most of us who use levels to any degree are watching the 620ish level very closely anyway. So for traders, his short-term bearish tone is probably safer.
Compare to Sperling (who also seems like a smart guy, just more bullish than Redler), who called a short-term bottom for AAPL last week. Unfortunately...no.
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Post by h2oskier on Oct 8, 2012 16:34:30 GMT -8
iPad, great effort in getting this forum up and running. I'm not sure what has changed, whether it be the change from AFB to AFB2 or that people have learned that AAPL moves not just up but up, down and sideways (not meant to be a a slap across the face comment) or simply your beautiful soothing typed "voice" but it sure is nice seeing people working together to figure out the direction of AAPL as oppose to hounding on someone for having a bearish opinion.
That being said, seeing the RSI and ChaiOsc on daily and hourly I can't see us dropping below $618. There is HUGE support there. 7 attempts breaking it as resistance, 2 attempts at support and 4 days of sideways support. We break that then I have 585 range then the 520 range. 547 looks weak.
Just my 2 cents worth...
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 8, 2012 16:41:10 GMT -8
He's a trader, not an analyst. Most of us who use levels to any degree are watching the 620ish level very closely anyway. So for traders, his short-term bearish tone is probably safer. Compare to Sperling (who also seems like a smart guy, just more bullish than Redler), who called a short-term bottom for AAPL last week. Unfortunately...no. And Sperling also said matter-of-factly on Thursday during the Q&A with the T3 lady about AAPL "it's going back to 700". I guess it was a matter of when. Redler also thinks that the highs for AAPL for this year are not in yet, so that must be the thinking at T3.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 8, 2012 16:54:45 GMT -8
I agree with Redler and Sperling on the AAPL 700+ prediction. AAPL has earned the market's and traders' respect as a sector leader.
But there's making calls and trading the action if you trade (which they seem to do pretty well). So when trades are made, you have to adopt the trading mindset (for...the...trades...saying that word too much...)
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 8, 2012 16:59:15 GMT -8
iPad, great effort in getting this forum up and running. I'm not sure what has changed, whether it be the change from AFB to AFB2 or that people have learned that AAPL moves not just up but up, down and sideways (not meant to be a a slap across the face comment) or simply your beautiful soothing typed "voice" but it sure is nice seeing people working together to figure out the direction of AAPL as oppose to hounding on someone for having a bearish opinion. That being said, seeing the RSI and ChaiOsc on daily and hourly I can't see us dropping below $618. There is HUGE support there. 7 attempts breaking it as resistance, 2 attempts at support and 4 days of sideways support. We break that then I have 585 range then the 520 range. 547 looks weak. Just my 2 cents worth... Hey, I made lunch money type cash flow against my sagging AAPL options on Friday with a BPS. Shorting AAPL as a hedge or a just plain short (by itself) shouldn't upset anyone here. It's all in the presentation and attitude. I'm almost "looking forward to" the 620-ish range if we get there. Everyone is watching that level and everyone knows AAPL is fundamentally cheap. The smart bears know this current euphoria isn't likely to last forever. Could be our upside trade of the year here, I just have to keep emotion from clouding my judgment.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 8, 2012 17:05:25 GMT -8
My take on the T3 guys: Sperling is the perma-bull, Laz is the perma-bear, and Scott is the Renaissance Man. I like and respect all three, but Scott is my fav, by far! RG, Scott's a huge Apple/AAPL fan (you'll hear him say "my baby Apple,"), but he's also a non-biased technical trader...he'll trade levels, not opinions. He'll buy at support, sell breaks of support, sell into resistance (book some, trail some), buy breaks above resistance. He's very disciplined that way. And he's traded AAPL his entire career and knows/loves it well. Also Scott will often say: know your timeframe...day trade, swing trade, or long-term macro investment.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 8, 2012 17:16:36 GMT -8
iPad, great effort in getting this forum up and running. I'm not sure what has changed, whether it be the change from AFB to AFB2 or that people have learned that AAPL moves not just up but up, down and sideways (not meant to be a a slap across the face comment) or simply your beautiful soothing typed "voice" but it sure is nice seeing people working together to figure out the direction of AAPL as oppose to hounding on someone for having a bearish opinion. That being said, seeing the RSI and ChaiOsc on daily and hourly I can't see us dropping below $618. There is HUGE support there. 7 attempts breaking it as resistance, 2 attempts at support and 4 days of sideways support. We break that then I have 585 range then the 520 range. 547 looks weak. Just my 2 cents worth... Thanks, H20!! <---see me calling you by your proper name! And I concur with your technical opinion -- with the addition of the 565 level as strong support. But I do expect the daily SMA-100 to hold.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 8, 2012 17:26:26 GMT -8
Hey, I made lunch money type cash flow against my sagging AAPL options on Friday with a BPS. Shorting AAPL as a hedge or a just plain short (by itself) shouldn't upset anyone here. It's all in the presentation and attitude. I'm almost "looking forward to" the 620-ish range if we get there. Everyone is watching that level and everyone knows AAPL is fundamentally cheap. The smart bears know this current euphoria isn't likely to last forever. Could be our upside trade of the year here, I just have to keep emotion from clouding my judgment. Did I congratulate you on the lunch money already? If not: way to go!!!! Definitely agree that wherever this downwave *does* bottom, we have massive upside potential. You have done REALLY well keeping emotions in check, so I have no doubts you're going to kick ass!! The timing of this downwave reminds me of April in that the EOs took their profits early and killed the calls. I don't think July calls ever recovered. August miraculously (!) did. They put the "evil" in EOs!!!
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 8, 2012 17:29:44 GMT -8
Could get there tomorrow...? Get the keys and warm up the truck! IMHO, that lower trendline is a BUY!!!!! At the moment, appears to be 623-625ish. AAPL 2-DAY CHART: AAPL DAILY CHART:
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 8, 2012 17:41:17 GMT -8
Conjecture here, but one way I could see this playing out... If lowest line is #5 and highest line is #1... Tomorrow, we go down to #4, then bounce hard to #3... Then, if there's another leg (which right now, weekly MACD-h does imply), down to #5. Then up to #1 by Spring. AAPL 2-DAY CHART:
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