Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 4, 2012 18:38:41 GMT -8
Are you kidding?!? A H&S in the middle of an inverse H&S?! But yep, so far AAPL just keeps everyone guessing day to day. It's tough for intermediate trend/momo/swing types.
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Post by macziggy on Oct 4, 2012 19:10:31 GMT -8
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 4, 2012 20:42:13 GMT -8
I have a question for the pattern enthusiast. Would it be a valid cup and handle formation from the April highs to the Sept high with us making the handle now. Not sure about the rules for the cup? I am fishing here.
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Post by Big Al on Oct 5, 2012 4:19:55 GMT -8
I don't know, but somehow I have this feeling that we will go lower within the next month.
Actually, testing the 100day MA would not be that unimaginable. It currently stands at $618 but is creeping constantly higher. We might, e.g., test it when it reaches the 50% Fib retracement level from Jul.25th (at $637) somewhere around (but probably after) earnings.
And this price level would still not be overly cheap. Based on my Q4 estimates, a price of $637 after earnings would translate into a PE of 14.2. Cheap for us who know our company, but not cheap for the market, considering that AAPL traded multiple times during the last year around a PE of 13.
Edit: Just realized that $637/636 is also the 38.2% Fib retracement from May.18th move.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 5, 2012 7:59:54 GMT -8
Shame there's no exit strategy suggestions for either side of the trade. (/sarcasm, of course, DYODD(tm)* and stuff) *DYODD = Do Your Own Due Diligence. You could add extra letters for emphasis. But yeah, AAPL was getting due for short-term directional resolution. Unfortunately, AAPL will need some kind of spark to get back on track, though SMA-50 _is_ holding for now. iPad, mind bringing out that 2-day trendline chart again?
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Post by prazan on Oct 5, 2012 11:28:55 GMT -8
I'm trying to set the Chaikin Oscillator in freestockcharts.com, but only see the Chaikin Money Flow. If someone can enlighten me, don't hesitate. I'm looking for it under the "add indicator" tab. If I'm mistaken and they're the same thing, don't hesitate to point it out.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 5, 2012 12:38:06 GMT -8
I'm trying to set the Chaikin Oscillator in freestockcharts.com, but only see the Chaikin Money Flow. If someone can enlighten me, don't hesitate. I'm looking for it under the "add indicator" tab. If I'm mistaken and they're the same thing, don't hesitate to point it out. I use stockcharts.com it shows -7.9 mil on the daily. Man what a crappy day.
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Post by prazan on Oct 5, 2012 12:46:26 GMT -8
I don't mind crappy days if I think we're nearing a buyable bottom and I have cash. I'm not sure we're there yet, so you're right, yes, what a crappy day.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 5, 2012 13:39:25 GMT -8
Let me ask the question another way: What's your take on Redler's theory? It sounds very common-sense to me (one reason I'm a Redler fan), but is it "pure price action"-type analysis? It kinda seems like Redler doesn't "care" about stuff like divergences. I know he filters out market "noise", with what seems to be pretty consistent success. Yep, Redler's favs: 1) trendlines; 2) Fibs; 3) moving averages. IMHO, trendlines truly are the BEST of all TA -- classic -- because ultimately, price trumps all else. I like all of that, but as you know, I'm a huge fan of MACD-h, for which I blame--er, credit Alexander Elder.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 5, 2012 13:43:56 GMT -8
Wow! Holding the trendlines pretty OK, actually!
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 5, 2012 13:45:29 GMT -8
Al, whole lotta confluence in that 637-638 area. Fibs, moving averages, trendlines, P&F (hugs & kisses chart) and unfilled gaps.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 5, 2012 13:47:18 GMT -8
Wow! Holding the trendlines pretty OK, actually! Yep, my WAG is we hit the lower trendline, then rocket back up to the upper trendline.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 5, 2012 13:48:28 GMT -8
AAPL TWO-DAY CHART: (trendlines) AAPL DAILY CHART: (trendlines) Hitting the trendline in the lower chart will be at 625-630. I just remember on Friday, April 13, that we broke through the put wall, and then continued this on Monday. [Of course, we had that 30 point run-up on the Tuesday, after hitting the lower Bollinger Band.] But what I remember vividly was Carter "what's his name" from Fast Money was quoted as saying his firm is dumping AAPL because it broke the lower trendline, and that was the beginning of a tough 6 weeks or so. That's my worst fear.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 5, 2012 13:58:52 GMT -8
Wow! Holding the trendlines pretty OK, actually! Yep, my WAG is we hit the lower trendline, then rocket back up to the upper trendline. There are 4 trendlines in the chart, Ms. IPad. Let's call the lowest one #1, and the highest one #4. So you're saying we bounce off #1, and rocket up to the upper trendline, but which # would it be (i.e., #2, #3 or #4)? Also, the MACD on the daily is looking pretty good, though I'm not sure about the cross-overs. What's your take on this?
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 5, 2012 14:33:57 GMT -8
There are 4 trendlines in the chart, Ms. IPad. Let's call the lowest one #1, and the highest one #4. So you're saying we bounce off #1, and rocket up to the upper trendline, but which # would it be (i.e., #2, #3 or #4)? Also, the MACD on the daily is looking pretty good, though I'm not sure about the cross-overs. What's your take on this? On the 2-day chart with 4 trendlines: bounce off #1 and rocket up to #3. On the daily chart with 2 trendlines: stay in that channel. Daily MACD-h = negative-sloping valley = downwave in a downtrend.
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 5, 2012 14:42:27 GMT -8
Wow! Holding the trendlines pretty OK, actually! Yep, my WAG is we hit the lower trendline, then rocket back up to the upper trendline. It's hard for me to see where that bottom trend line is? What area is that? ...(Sorry can't find my reading glasses - I know they're somewhere here) -- is that the 630ish area?
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 5, 2012 15:07:17 GMT -8
In the 570-705 range, these are the open gaps:
Below: 636.76 to 638.81 (8/17) 621.76 to 623.25 (8/13) 610.69 to 611.56 (8/3) 599.44 to 602.72 (7/31) 585.83 to 587.82 (7/30)
Above: 699.36 to 695.12 (7/24)
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 5, 2012 15:07:29 GMT -8
Phoebes: yes.
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 5, 2012 15:17:03 GMT -8
It all sounds very negative -- I look at tweets and they are all negative too -- does it pay to be a contrarian in the short term?
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 5, 2012 16:03:39 GMT -8
Sure, but I would do it with intermediate- or long-term positions...more forgiving of timing mistakes.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 5, 2012 16:07:29 GMT -8
iPad mini or massively improved(-sounding) iPhone 5 availability are the keys to 700+ again by December, I think, all things staying about where they are right now (and obviously things could change).
I thought about putting on another BPS hedge, but I'll wait 'til Monday. 652 is just about the 38.2% retrace of the 570-705 move. After that, the 641/644 threshold.
That 2-day chart trendline is still holding despite "broken faith" in AAPL (well, really, it's the pundits who never had any "faith" in Apple in the first place). Let's see how things develop.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 5, 2012 16:12:16 GMT -8
Mav, that's why I took all my NOV'12 hedges off. There's always the chance we have a massive gap up on Monday and never look back. Stranger things have happened -- like a 135-point run after an earnings miss...and all those crazy plunges after all those stellar earnings beats.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 5, 2012 16:31:00 GMT -8
Well shoot. I don't have anything on the table really to take advantage of a massive gap up on Monday. (No hedges on AAPL as of end of day, though, IIRC.)
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 5, 2012 16:47:55 GMT -8
Mav, that's why I took all my NOV'12 hedges off. There's always the chance we have a massive gap up on Monday and never look back. Stranger things have happened -- like a 135-point run after an earnings miss...and all those crazy plunges after all those stellar earnings beats. I don't see the logic in the basic gap up right off the bat on Monday? (the potential)...I mean I know anything is possible but don't think it's probable...altho what am I missing here?
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 5, 2012 17:18:41 GMT -8
Mav, thus the core long-term longs, to take advantage of upside surprises. Always happens when we least expect it -- at least when *I* least expect it, and I'm sure not expecting it right now! Anyway, sounds like both of us went short-term flat AAPL for the weekend. Phoebes, clearly you have missed the illogical logic angle, heehee! All the usual disclaimers: honestly, I have no flipping idea what comes next -- I never do. I only know what's happening in the present, and what happened in the past. For the future, I just make WAGs that are sometimes right only because I can't always be wrong. Right now, everything suggests down. But everything suggested down to me post-JUL'12 earnings, and I was wrong. Before that, pre-JUL'12 earnings, everything suggested big up to me on the earnings report (I did NOT see that miss coming AT ALL). Before that, pre-APR'12 earnings, I did not think we could possibly tank THAT much THAT close to earnings. Just a reminder that even the improbable can happen; the landscape can always change dramatically overnight. This year, we seem to go up when it makes the least sense to me, and down when it makes the least sense to me. Therefore, what makes sense to me is irrelevant. I just try to manage upside and downside risk simultaneously. I'm in my zen state when I'm doing that properly. Sure, it's great to be all-in long in a raging bull run...and all-in short in a raging bear run...but it's the flip side of that I want to avoid...all-in long on a bear run...or all in-short in a bull run. So I just keep "adjusting" level by level. And here, at key support -- which yes, it looks as though we are poised to break and test lower supports -- this is where it's just good risk management for me, IMHO, to go flat on shorter-term AAPL (which I never like "holding" anyway). I can always reenter when the dust clears on Monday.
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Post by prazan on Oct 5, 2012 18:10:07 GMT -8
Cobra measures fib levels at 519-705, with 634ish being the 38.2% retracement. He thinks lots of folks will try to buy here on this principle, making this a key level of support.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 5, 2012 18:18:09 GMT -8
iPad...it's really not fair that all you do is win, win, win. (/reference to something I've never listened to) I mean, congrats and all on the great trades, but... I _am_ very much on the sidelines...over 50% cash...but as an intermediate-trend/momo trader ("on the side") trying to hone my weak skills, I'm trying my best to be tactical. And honestly, I don't even have enough conviction in the market for a swing trade (which is my primary trading style), for crying out loud. For better or for worse, for now I'm just very noncommittal.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 5, 2012 18:23:27 GMT -8
Cobra measures fib levels at 519-705, with 634ish being the 38.2% retracement. He thinks lots of folks will try to buy here on this principle, making this a key level of support. I recall hearing that there's confluences around the 630s. I'll have to do some homework on that myself over the weekend.
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Post by macziggy on Oct 5, 2012 19:27:33 GMT -8
Mav, thus the core long-term longs, to take advantage of upside surprises. Always happens when we least expect it -- at least when *I* least expect it, and I'm sure not expecting it right now! Anyway, sounds like both of us went short-term flat AAPL for the weekend. Phoebes, clearly you have missed the illogical logic angle, heehee! All the usual disclaimers: honestly, I have no flipping idea what comes next -- I never do. I only know what's happening in the present, and what happened in the past. For the future, I just make WAGs that are sometimes right only because I can't always be wrong. Right now, everything suggests down. But everything suggested down to me post-JUL'12 earnings, and I was wrong. Before that, pre-JUL'12 earnings, everything suggested big up to me on the earnings report (I did NOT see that miss coming AT ALL). Before that, pre-APR'12 earnings, I did not think we could possibly tank THAT much THAT close to earnings. Just a reminder that even the improbable can happen; the landscape can always change dramatically overnight. This year, we seem to go up when it makes the least sense to me, and down when it makes the least sense to me. Therefore, what makes sense to me is irrelevant. I just try to manage upside and downside risk simultaneously. I'm in my zen state when I'm doing that properly. Sure, it's great to be all-in long in a raging bull run...and all-in short in a raging bear run...but it's the flip side of that I want to avoid...all-in long on a bear run...or all in-short in a bull run. So I just keep "adjusting" level by level. And here, at key support -- which yes, it looks as though we are poised to break and test lower supports -- this is where it's just good risk management for me, IMHO, to go flat on shorter-term AAPL (which I never like "holding" anyway). I can always reenter when the dust clears on Monday. There was a lot of banter in August about a stock split in the future. They could surprise us with that at any point. Come on, Tim, how about Monday? Ohhhhhhh, that's right, the insiders would already know about it and the stock would be at 720 before any of us ever found out!! HaHa
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 6, 2012 4:16:17 GMT -8
Maybe I should phrase my questions better. I DO realize that these are ALL "if/then" scenarios...so when I ask what's next on the downside it's only because the sentiment currently is negative or that support is light till we get to that 634ish Fib level. I DO understand that - anyone - Leon Cooperman or Einhorn or any fund can come in and "buy and bid" a million shares and we won't know what hit us as the thing sky-rockets. (Ah..I miss those days when I worked those orders...people were stunned to see stocks move and the manager accomplished what he/she wanted...changing the technicals with their buying power...changing their mark....and catching all the shorts...it was a beautiful thing). I've seen this movie before. HOWEVER, based on ONLY THE TECHNICALS the road to that 630s level looks pretty likely. So please, please -- no need for disclaimers - it's okay - no one is giving or taking advice based on the advice of others. I don't want any technician on this board to be concerned about offering their views.
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