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Post by alice on Jan 26, 2013 11:20:47 GMT -8
Nick's blog is offline.
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Post by firestorm on Jan 26, 2013 11:31:31 GMT -8
For the first time in years, I sold all my AAPL. My strategy at this point is to become purely a momentum investor in AAPL, dashing in and out quickly. Plus, I'll do what I should have done 260 points ago and diversify.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 26, 2013 11:48:51 GMT -8
Real Artists Ship even if the process is taking longer than it needs to.
You have to rip open the Bandaid and learn by doing sometime. And who says they weren't dragging it out with iMac not having had a refresh in 400 days?
Friction stir welding and screen lamination on a scale never seen in consumer tech gets a pass from me. Question the method but not the commitment. There's plenty of other better places to get on Apple's case than iMac.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 26, 2013 11:49:21 GMT -8
Sold shares? Sold mine last year.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 26, 2013 11:51:40 GMT -8
The circuit breaker rule triggers at more than 10% off. 12% or something.
To the extent you're suggesting 12% is likely again in typical non-event trading without the CB in place, I suggest you look at Friday for clues.
Btw, Proboards for iPhone is marginal. At best.
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Post by alice on Jan 26, 2013 12:00:23 GMT -8
Mav, I am not suggesting anything. I am voicing my concern only. Will the short sellers come in next week to move aapl down is my concern.
What clues are you hinting at?
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Post by Deleted on Jan 26, 2013 12:19:46 GMT -8
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Post by Big Al on Jan 26, 2013 12:29:29 GMT -8
I can't believe I'm saying this but here is an article form a CNBC staffer - Jon Fortt - that is basically 99% accurate and positive. www.cnbc.com/id/100405309(Apologies if this was posted earlier today). "The iMac's gross margin is typically above the corporate average. So it hurts when Apple's not selling them. (This will continue to hurt Apple's margins in the March quarter, when it will no longer be supply constrained on the lower-margin iPad mini (and perhaps the iPhone 4), but will remain constrained on the higher-margin iMac." Is this really true? I thought the iMac's gross margin is way below the corporate average?
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 26, 2013 12:52:12 GMT -8
Sold shares? Sold mine last year. And here all along I thought you were an AAPL investor?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 26, 2013 12:58:55 GMT -8
...and bought a small portion back @...er...over $500 this year...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 26, 2013 13:05:20 GMT -8
As someone who has a particularly jaundiced eye towards CNBC and the occasionally erratic Jon Fortt - gotta agree with JD and burgess on this one. Good article!
Just one little correction - and really, as a journalist you always go for maximum impact, right?:
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Post by Deleted on Jan 26, 2013 13:05:43 GMT -8
"The iMac's gross margin is typically above the corporate average. So it hurts when Apple's not selling them. (This will continue to hurt Apple's margins in the March quarter, when it will no longer be supply constrained on the lower-margin iPad mini (and perhaps the iPhone 4), but will remain constrained on the higher-margin iMac." Is this really true? I thought the iMac's gross margin is way below the corporate average? I think the mac range these days overall probably has closer to 50% GM than 40%.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 26, 2013 13:11:55 GMT -8
I'm not sure iMac gross margin is "superior"...but here's where the futile exercise of learning more about The Company You Keep/Tradeâ„¢ comes in handy.
Pop quiz: What's Mac revenue mix? What have Mac gross margins been hinted at in the past? What's the relative sales mix _within_ Mac?
The answers help out a lot. Here's some hints: No one has any damn clue about iMac margins, though back when Mac was the highest-margin product and desktops were still kind of being sold, people had good guesses in the high 30 range. Mac ASP is another really big clue. Probably safe to say that the MacBook family really, really rakes it in.
And here's a takeaway: When you understand where Mac is, you actually end up not really caring terribly much except for its contribution to the top and bottom lines.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 26, 2013 13:20:50 GMT -8
I'm less concerned about short sellers and more concerned about margin liquidations.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 26, 2013 13:28:03 GMT -8
Of course, since we've run into another case of confluenza - log-scale trendline (which sprung into existence under iPad's Rules of Trendlines by hitting the 440 region) + 10 multiple psychological line, caution is advised.
But iPad, you really think there's still people who weren't swept away by margin calls back around, say, 500?
(And to be clear, I have nothing but sympathy for those suffering margin calls.)
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Post by moltenfire on Jan 26, 2013 13:31:08 GMT -8
Of course, since we've run into another case of confluenza - log-scale trendline (which sprung into existence under iPad's Rules of Trendlines by hitting the 440 region) + 10 multiple, caution is advised. But iPad, you really think there's still people who weren't swept away by margin calls back around, say, 500? I'm one guy and one guy does not a statistic make, but I can tell you I was fine margin-wise from $700 down to $500, but even I'm getting margin calls when the stock hits $440 and lower and am forced to sell (a small portion - 17% of my commons, but still).
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 26, 2013 13:32:35 GMT -8
(See my last parenthetical sentence.)
Unfortunately, that other side of margin is showing itself right now. Very early on in my trading life, I encountered it firsthand.
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Post by alice on Jan 26, 2013 13:33:10 GMT -8
I think there were lot of margin call selling Thursday and Friday. Short selling next week will do more damage. Retail investors are selling and will continue to sell if aapl share price does not stabilize.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 26, 2013 13:39:23 GMT -8
Selected Clarifications:
It's "forced selling" or "margin liquidation".
Short selling is a different story and technically has no impact on a stock's price. It's the riskiest form of speculation in which short sellers assume they're stepping into a price vacuum. Only if they are CORRECT about trend will they profit. Short selling does not beget a price drop. An abundance of short sellers tends to pop up in selloff situations as they seek to benefit from the trend. The better short sellers tend to pop up when they sense a correction or better yet, major trend reversal afoot. Correlation is not causation.
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Post by jdrizzo89 on Jan 26, 2013 13:44:34 GMT -8
Short selling is one of the best forms of market self regulation IMO. Hope they never bring back uptick rule
Every short seller looks for those companies with BS accounting tricks and a lot of the time they go public with thesis and it puts an end to such fraud.
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Post by moltenfire on Jan 26, 2013 13:45:29 GMT -8
I've had margin calls before, in my former life investing in NFLX 10 years ago, so it's not a big deal. It's a fact of life once you start tapping into leverage. I know in some societies margin calls were considered morally repulsive due to long memory from Black Monday and the Great Depression. I don't have that notion, as to me margin calls are simply a fact of mathematics.
I think the big fear now, based on technicals, is the BIG UNKNOWN that no one knows how far AAPL will fall. We thought it would be the 50MA, the 200MA, the 52 week low, the max pain, $600, $500, $460, $400, $380, etc. It's breached a lot of support levels which were thought to be rock solid, but turned out to be fragile.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but the nature of the stock market is that we can't really confirm there was a floor and that the share price has stabilized until 3-6 months after the fact. Maybe it's stabilizing now at $440, maybe not. Maybe it won't stabilize until we're at $200, or 1x cash. We just don't know.
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Post by macziggy on Jan 26, 2013 13:48:42 GMT -8
Not sure what this means but Nick Nansen's website appears to be down. Temporary?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 26, 2013 13:53:25 GMT -8
Nansen? He must have capitulated to Thailand. Well, whatever.
moltenfire, I'm not sure I even want to respond, but since I have this problem where I have to crusade for common sense in the market - try to use some common sense. There's a Marianas Trench between perpetually disrespected stock and 1x cash valuation from a $170B company with slowing growth.
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Post by moltenfire on Jan 26, 2013 13:56:42 GMT -8
Nansen? He must have capitulated to Thailand. Well, whatever. moltenfire, I'm not sure I even want to respond, but since I have this problem where I have to crusade for common sense in the market - try to use some common sense. There's a Marianas Trench between perpetually disrespected stock and 1x cash valuation from a $170B company with slowing growth. Mav, I know it's nuts to consider a 1x cash valuation. Just throwing it out as an example of market irrationality, which admittedly we've all seen too much lately.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 26, 2013 14:01:54 GMT -8
Sorry - "Maybe it won't stabilize until we're at $200, or 1x cash. We just don't know" does not sound like someone who doesn't believe this to be likely.
There's market irrationality and then there's market insanity. Looking back to all of the corrections I've traded through starting with dot-bomb, none of them were insane.
And why are you leaving Apple out of this? IF Apple ever traded to $200...they'd eventually settle with shareholders for $300 a share when the angry mob demands $600 for management incompetence. Not to mention the emergency actions Apple would take between now and $200 to shore up share price, prevent hostile takeover, or even go private (settling with an angry mob of shareholders in order to do so).
You seem to have forgotten the $137B under the couch and that Apple's board and management are not completely pathetic nincompoops.
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Post by rosie on Jan 26, 2013 14:06:54 GMT -8
Not sure what this means but Nick Nansen's website appears to be down. Temporary? Over at the AAPL Trading Forum the word is he not only shut down his blog but removed all his "historical" info as indicated by nothing being there when you clicked the link. whatever.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 26, 2013 14:08:31 GMT -8
So much for that.
It's revealing and sadly confirms my suspicions.
You do not have some kind of "breakdown" or just leave when the market doesn't go your way.
Unless...
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Post by PikesPique on Jan 26, 2013 14:10:13 GMT -8
What would be the implications for investors, both common and options holders, if a company does go private?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 26, 2013 14:10:51 GMT -8
Apple's kind of gone a little far down the road as a publicly traded issue. Still a megacap and all.
Does it really want to find out?
Think about it.
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Post by PikesPique on Jan 26, 2013 14:15:15 GMT -8
I'm not really expecting Apple to go private, I was just curious about how that would affect its (former) public shareholders and options speculators. Not just for Apple, but for any company (e.g., Dell).
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