Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 10, 2013 16:46:38 GMT -8
The funny thing is, Apple still hasn't confirmed Mr. Cook's attendance at the GS conference next week.
(Tho it's very likely gonna happen and we'll probably get a little Apple IR link to the conference audio the same day Tim shows up)
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 10, 2013 16:48:33 GMT -8
John Melloy - a CNBC producer just sent this tweet out about covering a story tomorrow with respect to AAPL's capital allocation - I will post a link if you would like to read it but the hilarious part is that the last line of the piece he refers to AAPL's CEO as PETER COOK ;D What a jackass! www.cnbc.com/id/100448956FWIW: Scott Redler just blasted this article out to everyone in a tweet a few moments ago as well. This is good info. Thanks for the link! Apple does host one-on-one calls with analysts it knows from time to time and Marshall is one of them. I expect these "analyst chats" to be considerably more commonplace going forward given the same top management.
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Post by roni on Feb 10, 2013 16:49:17 GMT -8
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Post by sponge on Feb 10, 2013 16:50:48 GMT -8
Smart folks still think it will grow over 20% in eps this FY. I know you are not referring to me, (hehe), I think Apple will grow 10-20% in SALES, but profits YOY will remain the same. I still see 50-53 eps for this year. Margins will come up and release of new products between now and Oct will help a great deal. The only reason they could not grow 40% like I expected, is because the could not build enough iPhone 4, iPhone 5, and iPad Mini to meet the initial demand. That shocked me. Once Apple misses that 3-5 month window consumers will wait for the next upgrade. So the growth gets transferred to the next FY. However we must forget about eps growth YOY. We must focus on the bigger picture. iTunes accounts, iCloud accounts, and iOS devices sold. Those are growing 25% a year. With that trend continuing the world will look radically different in 3 years. They are building a cash generating machine that will be stronger then ever. Everyone of those accounts and be used to sell the next service or product. if it is not the iWatch or the iTV, it will be the latest iPHone, iPad, or Mac. The company ecosystem keeps getting bigger and bigger every year.
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Post by rezonate on Feb 10, 2013 16:51:13 GMT -8
Is it possible that this is the answer to calls for a cheap iPhone? As in, the iWatch would be a smaller form factor iPhone rather than a iPhone accessory? Or it could be both? It could have a cellular data option (like an iPad) - which would enable it to be a communication device (FaceTime/iMessage/Skype etc). No way this is a cheap iPhone. Technically impossible. Not to mention, the drawbacks of a tiny display. Some kind of cool accessory, maybe. For $100, this pocket watch / cell phone combo has everything - FM radio, bluetooth, even dual SIMs and MP3 player! www.aliexpress.com/store/product/Pocket-Watch-Cell-Phone-Q8-with-Bluetooth-Camera-MP3-MP4-FM-Radio-Dual-SIM-Cards-Free/512433_591209990.html
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Post by artman1033 on Feb 10, 2013 16:53:20 GMT -8
The funny thing is, Apple still hasn't confirmed Mr. Cook's attendance at the GS conference next week. (Tho it's very likely gonna happen and we'll probably get a little Apple IR link to the conference audio the same day Tim shows up) Last year, it was posted by Apple, the DAY BEFORE on the APPLE IR page after hours.
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Post by sponge on Feb 10, 2013 16:53:24 GMT -8
John Melloy - a CNBC producer just sent this tweet out about covering a story tomorrow with respect to AAPL's capital allocation - I will post a link if you would like to read it but the hilarious part is that the last line of the piece he refers to AAPL's CEO as PETER COOK ;D What a jackass! www.cnbc.com/id/100448956FWIW: Scott Redler just blasted this article out to everyone in a tweet a few moments ago as well. This is good info. Thanks for the link! Apple does host one-on-one calls with analysts it knows from time to time and Marshall is one of them. I expect these "analyst chats" to be considerably more commonplace going forward given the same top management. I have it on good authority that when a certain WS analyst calls for an update, TC will call him back. I also have it on good authority that upper management (exclude TC, and PO) are very unhappy with the drop of 35% in the stock. In fact they are livid to say the least.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 10, 2013 17:04:27 GMT -8
"I have it on good authority"? ;D
I'm not sure _Cook_ will call certain WS analysts back (I assume you're referring to Munster), but Oppenheimer certainly will.
You better believe most AAPL shareholders within Apple are ticked off at the share price cliff dive! Who wouldn't be? (And trust me, Cook and Oppenheimer "secretly" aren't happy about it either.)
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Post by appledoc on Feb 10, 2013 17:06:06 GMT -8
I'll go ahead and say that 50-53 in EPS is entirely unrealistic. Barring any massive buyback, 48.20 tops. That's being generous with 30% growth in Q3 and Q4 and 11.00 in Q2 (which I think will be difficult given guidance).
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 10, 2013 17:08:40 GMT -8
Hey, companies have "sustained" greater multiples on lesser growth. Not a big deal, as long as Apple gets to telling a "more promising" story for 2014.
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Post by appledoc on Feb 10, 2013 17:13:53 GMT -8
Hey, companies have "sustained" greater multiples on lesser growth. Not a big deal, as long as Apple gets to telling a "more promising" story for 2014. Our multiple will rise, and deservingly so.
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Post by sponge on Feb 10, 2013 17:14:15 GMT -8
"I have it on good authority"? ;D I'm not sure _Cook_ will call certain WS analysts back (I assume you're referring to Munster), but Oppenheimer certainly will. You better believe most AAPL shareholders within Apple are ticked off at the share price cliff dive! Who wouldn't be? (And trust me, Cook and Oppenheimer "secretly" aren't happy about it either.) No it is not Gene, and yes it is TC who personally that calls him back. We are fine and we will be fine. TC and OP know that, but some of the cooks in the kitchen are getting restless. It is hard to stomach the valuation given how hard they work to make Apple the most profitable company on the planet and then seeing what WS decides to value GOOG and AMZN.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 10, 2013 17:24:03 GMT -8
Smart folks still think it will grow over 20% in eps this FY. Given's Apple's solid business plan, there is no justification for present valuation that gives it a forward p/e of 7. I don't buy the argument that there were legitimate reasons for the stock to drop 35%. I have been following this stock for over 8 years and I am confident it is being manipulated to go up and down. The reason the hills and valleys are getting bigger is because the stock is becoming so expensive and quite a few retail investors jumped on board last year hoping to see $1000 this year. I think we may see $600 now much faster then anyone imagined. I don't think it deserved to sell off below $500, but some sell off made sense - as usual the market swung the pendulum to far. I have a hard time seeing earnings growth of 20%. It might happen if we see a iPhone 5S 3 months early, but then that might mean we get another big margin hit when the earlier than expected iPhone 6 form factor launches.
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Post by lovemyipad on Feb 10, 2013 17:31:48 GMT -8
(...)Manipulation! Yes, the largest market cap stock has been manipulated. Personal responsibility no longer exists... Go ahead, shoot the messenger! Bang! The two are not mutually exclusive.
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Post by mbeauch on Feb 10, 2013 17:34:06 GMT -8
Smart folks still think it will grow over 20% in eps this FY. I know you are not referring to me, (hehe), I think Apple will grow 10-20% in SALES, but profits YOY will remain the same. Artman, before I try to digest what you are saying I have to know your baseline. Apple had FY 2012 revenue of 156 billion and net income of 41 billion. Are you saying that Apple is going to increase revenue 15-30 billion yet maintain the same 41 billion? That would imply a dramatic drop in GM, huge tax increase or a spike in opex. Please enlighten me. The OPEX percentage is on a downward trajectory, the tax rate is pretty consistent. That leave GM. We know it will come down significantly this quarter, but once we get into Q3 it should revert back to its normal channel. BTW, I agree completely with the revenue projections. I think 180+ is definitely a possibility. I would not be surprised to to see 48 ttm in October. (That means the printing press will be needing oil)
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Post by mbeauch on Feb 10, 2013 17:34:44 GMT -8
(...)Manipulation! Yes, the largest market cap stock has been manipulated. Personal responsibility no longer exists... Go ahead, shoot the messenger! Bang! The two are not mutually exclusive. I hope you are a good shot.
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Post by mbeauch on Feb 10, 2013 17:40:37 GMT -8
I would be highly disappointed if that is all they did. A boost of 5 billion a year. WTF? Has nobody looked at the buy back numbers I put up? Spend 20 billion on buy backs from the cash pile and the dividend yield can shoot up with little effort.
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Post by lovemyipad on Feb 10, 2013 17:43:17 GMT -8
(...)do you believe that because [insert reason here], technical or EW analysis became a fools' game? You will NEVER hear that from me, under any circumstances.
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Post by jeffi on Feb 10, 2013 17:52:57 GMT -8
(...)Manipulation! Yes, the largest market cap stock has been manipulated. Personal responsibility no longer exists... Go ahead, shoot the messenger! Bang! The two are not mutually exclusive. The point is... What's to blame for the drop... Apple's declining performance and our inability to foresee it or manipulation/ conspiracy? Some may have their heads buried in the sand. Obviously, AAPL is down because it has been underperforming expectations and its future profit growth is in question. Anything can be manipulated. The larger the market cap the harder to manipulate. Relatively speaking, the whole manipulation/ conspiracy theory is ridiculous. In other words, we are trading one of the least manipulated stocks. All stocks get oversold and overbought. It's the nature of markets. Fear and greed. It's also the nature of people to rationalize and blame others for their mistakes. Where do you fit in?
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Post by jeffi on Feb 10, 2013 17:57:20 GMT -8
Bang! The two are not mutually exclusive. I hope you are a good shot. Locked and loaded... Sir.
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Post by roni on Feb 10, 2013 17:58:27 GMT -8
Bang! The two are not mutually exclusive. The point is... What's to blame for the drop... Apple's declining performance and our inability to foresee it or manipulation/ conspiracy? Some may have their heads buried in the sand. Obviously, AAPL is down because it has been underperforming expectations and its future profit growth is in question. Anything can be manipulated. The larger the market cap the harder to manipulate. Relatively speaking, the whole manipulation/ conspiracy theory is ridiculous. In other words, we are trading one of the least manipulated stocks. All stocks get oversold and overbought. It's the nature of markets. Fear and greed. It's also the nature of people to rationalize and blame others for their mistakes. Where do you fit in? Very comfortably right where I am. The dividend portfolio is 1.88 times the size of the total account balances on Jan 1, 2012. In addition to that, I have some April, Jan 2014 and Jan 2015 AAPL positions and Jan 2014 QCOM positions. I have made a lot of money in AAPL since Jan 2009 and am delighted to have redeployed a lot of that into an income portfolio as I move toward retirement.
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Post by mbeauch on Feb 10, 2013 17:58:58 GMT -8
Hey, companies have "sustained" greater multiples on lesser growth. Not a big deal, as long as Apple gets to telling a "more promising" story for 2014. Our multiple will rise, and deservingly so. I go back to the cash growth. The p/e has to rise to accommodate the pile. Someone is going to go after it. It is way to big and if Apple will not do it, rest assured, others will. I have been ridiculed for something I follow which is price/cash which stands at 3.46. No company has such a ridiculously low multiple. At an average multiple of 5, AAPL would be priced at 685. I get so agitated at the people who discount the cash implications. 5 years from now when Apple is sitting on 350 billion in cash (that would imply no change in the existing programs), what value would be acceptable? Blackrock is one of the EO's, if they think it is a good investment, I believe them over anyone else.
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Post by lovemyipad on Feb 10, 2013 18:01:08 GMT -8
jeffi, no matter what the reason for any stock's gyrations, each of us is personally responsible for our choice of security (stock, option, spread, etc.) and our entry point, exit point, or lack thereof. I absolutely believe the Big Boys ring the bell at the top, and the bottom, and every major turning point. By no means does that absolve my personal responsibility, and to suggest that *I* would think anything otherwise is insulting.
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Post by mbeauch on Feb 10, 2013 18:05:21 GMT -8
Anything can be manipulated. The larger the market cap the harder to manipulate. Relatively speaking, the whole manipulation/ conspiracy theory is ridiculous. In other words, we are trading one of the least manipulated stocks. All stocks get oversold and overbought. It's the nature of markets. Fear and greed. It's also the nature of people to rationalize and blame others for their mistakes. Where do you fit in? I tell you where I fit in. I think you are full of it. You did not even know that AAPL was just one of a handful of stocks that were traded weekly. The margin requirement raise a couple of months ago involved only AAPL. Don't even get me started on Cramer's video. I really believe you come in here just to antagonize and you succeed. You are ridiculous. You have only given your opinion which you think has value.
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Post by lovemyipad on Feb 10, 2013 18:11:38 GMT -8
All I know is, a huge Evil Overlord is really long AAPL, so, Go Team Evil! ROFL!!! ;D
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 10, 2013 18:14:30 GMT -8
Dammit, I think I'm rooting for Team Evil too. ;D
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Post by jeffi on Feb 10, 2013 18:15:42 GMT -8
The point is... What's to blame for the drop... Apple's declining performance and our inability to foresee it or manipulation/ conspiracy? Some may have their heads buried in the sand. Obviously, AAPL is down because it has been underperforming expectations and its future profit growth is in question. Anything can be manipulated. The larger the market cap the harder to manipulate. Relatively speaking, the whole manipulation/ conspiracy theory is ridiculous. In other words, we are trading one of the least manipulated stocks. All stocks get oversold and overbought. It's the nature of markets. Fear and greed. It's also the nature of people to rationalize and blame others for their mistakes. Where do you fit in? Very comfortably right where I am. The dividend portfolio is 1.88 times the size of the total account balances on Jan 1, 2012. In addition to that, I have some April, Jan 2014 and Jan 2015 AAPL positions and Jan 2014 QCOM positions. I have made a lot of money in AAPL since Jan 2009 and am delighted to have redeployed a lot of that into an income portfolio as I move toward retirement. Roni, you are in a very special class. You should share more of your wisdom.
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Post by jeffi on Feb 10, 2013 18:22:04 GMT -8
jeffi, no matter what the reason for any stock's gyrations, each of us is personally responsible for our choice of security (stock, option, spread, etc.) and our entry point, exit point, or lack thereof. I absolutely believe the Big Boys ring the bell at the top, and the bottom, and every major turning point. By no means does that absolve my personal responsibility, and to suggest that *I* would think anything otherwise is insulting. I was not referring to you or anyone specifically. I am referring to those that blame phantom manipulation for their financial misfortune. These people know whom they are. They are not taking personal responsibility. They are looking for scape goats. Propagating this behavior serves no common good.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 10, 2013 18:23:37 GMT -8
Hope you're not referring to me either.
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Post by jeffi on Feb 10, 2013 18:35:38 GMT -8
Hope you're not referring to me either. There is no value in calling anyone out. Nothing personal.
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