chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,433
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Post by chinacat on Apr 16, 2022 7:15:29 GMT -8
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Post by Luckychoices on Apr 17, 2022 16:44:29 GMT -8
With all the bouncing around…up, down and sideways, that the AAPL share price has done in 2022, coupled with the fact that AAPL has been unable to meet or exceed the ATH that was set on the first market day of 2022, it’s easy for us all to forget how extraordinarily well AAPL investors are doing over the long haul. A sarcastic comment from an AAPL/Apple skeptic on Seeking Alpha, who referrenced the negative YTD performance of AAPL, motivated me to put together a small table illustrating AAPL’s year-to-year performance since 2008. I never track AAPL’s performance YTD but instead chart it from my retirement date of 05/19/08. Therefore I used the yearly percent changes since I retired and considered how the investment would have grown for three different investment amounts: $10,000, $50,000 and $100,000. Whether that amount was invested *on* 05/19/08 or that value of AAPL shares existed in one’s portfolio on that day is immaterial. The important thing is to appreciate how well that investment did(or would have done) over the last(almost) 14 years. Cheers to the very patient AAPL Longs! 😎 In response to my post last weekend, there were several comments from other members: 1. Apple pays the lowest yield of the 27 Dow dividend payers even though they’re the richest company in the world. 2. No one really buys AAPL because of the dividend; Apple could pay more or even stop paying dividends…but paying such a low dividend makes it more of a hobby for Apple. Apparently I have too much time on my hands, because I decided to compare the total investment return from the Dow company with the *lowest* dividend yield, Apple, to the the total investment return from the Dow company with the *highest* dividend yield, IBM. Are long term AAPL shareholders being short-changed by Apple because the company has such a low dividend yield? I had to look up the dividends paid by both companies over that time period and although AAPL had 2 very healthy stock splits since 2008 and IBM had an anemic, 1046 for 1000 split on November 04, 2021, I decided to just go on share prices at market close on my retirement/anniversary dates for calculations purposes. I added a number of new categories and totals for this chart comparison, so if I’ve made any errors, please let me know. I repeated the original investment amounts of $10,000, $50,000 and $100,000. The reason I suspected I may have made some error(s) in my calculations is because the difference in total return over the 14 year time period is so huge, I’m at a loss to understand why *anyone* would be content being invested in the company with the #1 Dow dividend stock yield over the long term. Yes, I know…some folks are more interested in a steady income after they’re retired…but the difference is *so* enormous, I figured I must be missing something. In any case, after seeing the gross disparity between the returns from AAPL and IBM over the long term, I’m perfectly content being fully invested in Apple…even though its dividend yield is “the lowest yield of the 27 Dow dividend payers” and Apple “happens to be the richest company in the world”. YMMV.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,679
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Post by 4aapl on May 1, 2022 16:46:49 GMT -8
With all the bouncing around…up, down and sideways, that the AAPL share price has done in 2022, coupled with the fact that AAPL has been unable to meet or exceed the ATH that was set on the first market day of 2022, it’s easy for us all to forget how extraordinarily well AAPL investors are doing over the long haul. A sarcastic comment from an AAPL/Apple skeptic on Seeking Alpha, who referrenced the negative YTD performance of AAPL, motivated me to put together a small table illustrating AAPL’s year-to-year performance since 2008. I never track AAPL’s performance YTD but instead chart it from my retirement date of 05/19/08. Therefore I used the yearly percent changes since I retired and considered how the investment would have grown for three different investment amounts: $10,000, $50,000 and $100,000. Whether that amount was invested *on* 05/19/08 or that value of AAPL shares existed in one’s portfolio on that day is immaterial. The important thing is to appreciate how well that investment did(or would have done) over the last(almost) 14 years. Cheers to the very patient AAPL Longs! 😎 In response to my post last weekend, there were several comments from other members: 1. Apple pays the lowest yield of the 27 Dow dividend payers even though they’re the richest company in the world. 2. No one really buys AAPL because of the dividend; Apple could pay more or even stop paying dividends…but paying such a low dividend makes it more of a hobby for Apple. Apparently I have too much time on my hands, because I decided to compare the total investment return from the Dow company with the *lowest* dividend yield, Apple, to the the total investment return from the Dow company with the *highest* dividend yield, IBM. Are long term AAPL shareholders being short-changed by Apple because the company has such a low dividend yield? I had to look up the dividends paid by both companies over that time period and although AAPL had 2 very healthy stock splits since 2008 and IBM had an anemic, 1046 for 1000 split on November 04, 2021, I decided to just go on share prices at market close on my retirement/anniversary dates for calculations purposes. I added a number of new categories and totals for this chart comparison, so if I’ve made any errors, please let me know. I repeated the original investment amounts of $10,000, $50,000 and $100,000. The reason I suspected I may have made some error(s) in my calculations is because the difference in total return over the 14 year time period is so huge, I’m at a loss to understand why *anyone* would be content being invested in the company with the #1 Dow dividend stock yield over the long term. Yes, I know…some folks are more interested in a steady income after they’re retired…but the difference is *so* enormous, I figured I must be missing something. In any case, after seeing the gross disparity between the returns from AAPL and IBM over the long term, I’m perfectly content being fully invested in Apple…even though its dividend yield is “the lowest yield of the 27 Dow dividend payers” and Apple “happens to be the richest company in the world”. YMMV. View AttachmentView AttachmentView AttachmentA week ago you pointed out in an email that no one got back to you on this. I had thought about it a bit, but it seemed more rhetorical, and by the time I thought of an ok analogy it seemed like the time had passed. But here we go: AAPL's returns, and dividends, have been amazing over time. Any of us that have been holding the stock for more than ~14 years have had it since before Apple started the dividend again. And so it wasn't in our initial reasons to buy AAPL. But even today, the dividend yield on AAPL, or on most stocks, isn't the primary reason to buy a stock. It might be a contributing factor in some, such as with AT&T. Their nearly 6% dividend would be a major factor in purchasing the stock. OTOH, most people looking at buying AT&T for the dividend would realize the tradeoff is to not expect much appreciation in the stock value, and looking at the 5 year chart it's a net negative, consistently. I guess I can compare buying AAPL to liking or even buying a house. Maybe a bunch of people like it for what it is, the size, the location, the layout, the views. Some might not like the particular color, while others might like it. Others might not like some of the landscaping, or the window style. Whatever it is, maybe they still like it overall. They realize that they like most things about it, and that the more minor things they dislike, they can change or live with. There's a few people here on the AAPL finance board that have sold their shares, but for the most part we have invested quite a bit in AAPL, and we think it is a good investment. Does that mean we like every little thing about it? Maybe, but probably not. The dividend is like that, at least for someone already holding the stock, and possibly having held it for decades. It's a nice to have. But is it the reason to own AAPL? OTOH, what about the people looking at buying AAPL, which helps set the price a lot more than those of us that are just holding forever, and so aren't either buying or selling. Does the ~0.5% dividend help encourage them to buy shares in Apple? Maybe it helps, especially if they have a rule that they only buy companies that have dividends (some funds do, apparently). But at that rate, I'm not so sure that it either encourages or discourages new stock buyers. But your spreadsheet (looks good, but check the "current year' dividends if posting it elsewhere. It looks like you used just one quarter worth of dividends, instead of 3) points out the obvious part of having held AAPL for the past decade and beyond. AAPL has done very well! Comparisons to just about anything, when looking at share price appreciation, it likely to be leaps and bounds ahead. And as expected, while IBM gave more than ten times the value of dividends over your timeframe, their share price appreciation was almost nothing, with Apple's was 24x. Thanks Apple, for doing so well. AAPL's amazing appreciation over the years gives us the time to wonder about things like this.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,575
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Post by mark on May 8, 2022 6:11:03 GMT -8
In response to my post last weekend, there were several comments from other members: 1. Apple pays the lowest yield of the 27 Dow dividend payers even though they’re the richest company in the world. 2. No one really buys AAPL because of the dividend; Apple could pay more or even stop paying dividends…but paying such a low dividend makes it more of a hobby for Apple. Apparently I have too much time on my hands, because I decided to compare the total investment return from the Dow company with the *lowest* dividend yield, Apple, to the the total investment return from the Dow company with the *highest* dividend yield, IBM. Are long term AAPL shareholders being short-changed by Apple because the company has such a low dividend yield? I had to look up the dividends paid by both companies over that time period and although AAPL had 2 very healthy stock splits since 2008 and IBM had an anemic, 1046 for 1000 split on November 04, 2021, I decided to just go on share prices at market close on my retirement/anniversary dates for calculations purposes. I added a number of new categories and totals for this chart comparison, so if I’ve made any errors, please let me know. I repeated the original investment amounts of $10,000, $50,000 and $100,000. The reason I suspected I may have made some error(s) in my calculations is because the difference in total return over the 14 year time period is so huge, I’m at a loss to understand why *anyone* would be content being invested in the company with the #1 Dow dividend stock yield over the long term. Yes, I know…some folks are more interested in a steady income after they’re retired…but the difference is *so* enormous, I figured I must be missing something. In any case, after seeing the gross disparity between the returns from AAPL and IBM over the long term, I’m perfectly content being fully invested in Apple…even though its dividend yield is “the lowest yield of the 27 Dow dividend payers” and Apple “happens to be the richest company in the world”. YMMV. View AttachmentView AttachmentView AttachmentA week ago you pointed out in an email that no one got back to you on this. I had thought about it a bit, but it seemed more rhetorical, and by the time I thought of an ok analogy it seemed like the time had passed. But here we go: AAPL's returns, and dividends, have been amazing over time. Any of us that have been holding the stock for more than ~14 years have had it since before Apple started the dividend again. And so it wasn't in our initial reasons to buy AAPL. But even today, the dividend yield on AAPL, or on most stocks, isn't the primary reason to buy a stock. It might be a contributing factor in some, such as with AT&T. Their nearly 6% dividend would be a major factor in purchasing the stock. OTOH, most people looking at buying AT&T for the dividend would realize the tradeoff is to not expect much appreciation in the stock value, and looking at the 5 year chart it's a net negative, consistently. I guess I can compare buying AAPL to liking or even buying a house. Maybe a bunch of people like it for what it is, the size, the location, the layout, the views. Some might not like the particular color, while others might like it. Others might not like some of the landscaping, or the window style. Whatever it is, maybe they still like it overall. They realize that they like most things about it, and that the more minor things they dislike, they can change or live with. There's a few people here on the AAPL finance board that have sold their shares, but for the most part we have invested quite a bit in AAPL, and we think it is a good investment. Does that mean we like every little thing about it? Maybe, but probably not. The dividend is like that, at least for someone already holding the stock, and possibly having held it for decades. It's a nice to have. But is it the reason to own AAPL? OTOH, what about the people looking at buying AAPL, which helps set the price a lot more than those of us that are just holding forever, and so aren't either buying or selling. Does the ~0.5% dividend help encourage them to buy shares in Apple? Maybe it helps, especially if they have a rule that they only buy companies that have dividends (some funds do, apparently). But at that rate, I'm not so sure that it either encourages or discourages new stock buyers. But your spreadsheet (looks good, but check the "current year' dividends if posting it elsewhere. It looks like you used just one quarter worth of dividends, instead of 3) points out the obvious part of having held AAPL for the past decade and beyond. AAPL has done very well! Comparisons to just about anything, when looking at share price appreciation, it likely to be leaps and bounds ahead. And as expected, while IBM gave more than ten times the value of dividends over your timeframe, their share price appreciation was almost nothing, with Apple's was 24x. Thanks Apple, for doing so well. AAPL's amazing appreciation over the years gives us the time to wonder about things like this. Rhetorical or not, there are very good post hoc reasons. First and foremost, if "everyone" invested into what we see are the higher return stocks, they wouldn't have those high returns anymore, that's because more buyers bid up the price up front, and with the same earnings in the end, results in lower returns. This is by definition - if you buy something for $10 (say prices between $5 and $15 as it ries in early years) and sell for $1,010 years later, you have a 10,000% return, but if "everyone" buys it, and bids it up to $100, then when you buy it at $100 (average) and sell it at $1,010, your return is only 910%. Second, the "market" is just that, a market for different things (shares of companies), and people choose differently, that's what makes a market. If people all choose the same, there wouldn't be much of a market, and everything would be rather static. In fact, this is the bemoaning by all those that say excessive indexing is bad for the market - they're probably correct, but since change always happens on the margin, as long as the margin is big enough to effect change, we still have a functioning market. I don't think Apple attracts income investors per se. Sure some may include Apple as a small part of their income portfolio but only a very small part if they are aiming for decent overall yield. Instead they will mostly buy things like AT&T, ExxonMobil, Chevron, utilities, etc. I've held Apple for many years now, and it became my largest holding within a few years (not including all the early option gains, since I used options first before buying shares and holding them), but it's grown in importance, and is now by far my largest individual stock holding, probably close to 100X my second biggest individual holding at this point.
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Post by Luckychoices on May 8, 2022 20:42:35 GMT -8
I was pretty excited when I finally decided what new M1 chip MacBook Pro I wanted and ordered online on March 24th...but slightly disappointed to find out the computer wouldn't arrive until mid-May, almost 2 months later. Bummer. 😕 Then, on April 29th, I got *this* message from Apple indicating that "Due to an unexpected delay", I won't be getting my new computer until mid or late June. Double bummer. 🙁 So when this this article posted on May 5th...it was not news to me. YMMV If you want a custom Mac Studio or MacBook Pro, expect to wait up to three months
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Post by hrace on May 10, 2022 9:00:42 GMT -8
Hang in there luckychoices. It’s well worth the wait. Still love mine every single time I use it. I delayed an upgrade about 3 years waiting for the M1 so maybe you won’t have quite the leap I did but it’s should delight you…….soon. I hope Apple can beat their estimate for you a bit.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,433
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Post by chinacat on May 10, 2022 10:01:22 GMT -8
Yep, when we got our M1 iMac last summer, it came about a month later than promised. At that time, the supply chain delays were just getting started, so we got no info at all from Apple when we complained about the delay. Worth the wait, however.
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