Mav
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Post by Mav on Mar 6, 2013 0:55:16 GMT -8
Huh, wrong month on yesterday's Intraday thread.
Step One when showing any kind of price commitment: "Continuation". As in a second consecutive green day would be nice.
Looking at 435 myself. Ready for anything if 427ish breaks. Looking at anything over 432 for no particular reason.
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Post by mace on Mar 6, 2013 1:00:22 GMT -8
Should attempt to close gap at $437.
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Mav
Member
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Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Mar 6, 2013 1:06:54 GMT -8
You mean the gap at 438-441 or so from last Friday (Mar. 1)? That's what I'm seeing.
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Post by Trapped on Mar 6, 2013 1:48:36 GMT -8
Huh, wrong month on yesterday's Intraday thread. seems there's also bearish sentiment on the day ( shouldn't it be Wednesday 6th )
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Mar 6, 2013 2:28:05 GMT -8
Huh, wrong month on yesterday's Intraday thread. Step One when showing any kind of price commitment: "Continuation". As in a second consecutive green day would be nice. Looking at 435 myself. Ready for anything if 427ish breaks. Looking at anything over 432 for no particular reason. Whoops, fixed yesterday's date for the historical record. (You crazy americans and your crazy date formats, and whats with living a day behind me!)
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Post by appledoc on Mar 6, 2013 3:57:50 GMT -8
Just lost power in the snow storm on the east. Wonderful.
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Post by phoebear611 on Mar 6, 2013 4:36:57 GMT -8
Just lost power in the snow storm on the east. Wonderful. What state?
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Post by rob_london on Mar 6, 2013 4:52:40 GMT -8
AAPL just turned red in PMT.
Berenberg (who?) downgraded AAPL from Buy to Sell.
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Post by phoebear611 on Mar 6, 2013 5:06:06 GMT -8
AAPL just turned red in PMT. Berenberg (who?) downgraded AAPL from Buy to Sell. Berenberg Bank downgraded Apple two notches to Sell based on peaking margins driven by margin dilution from the mid-to-low-end segment. Price target lowered to $360 from $800.
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Post by rob_london on Mar 6, 2013 5:14:37 GMT -8
AAPL just turned red in PMT. Berenberg (who?) downgraded AAPL from Buy to Sell. Berenberg Bank downgraded Apple two notches to Sell based on peaking margins driven by margin dilution from the mid-to-low-end segment. Price target lowered to $360 from $800. Barclays cuts price target to $530 from $575 I enjoyed this tweet: "Hindsight Capital says $aapl shares at $700 seem "ripe for a fall""
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Post by rob_london on Mar 6, 2013 5:16:54 GMT -8
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Post by phoebear611 on Mar 6, 2013 5:19:02 GMT -8
Doubtful the Berenberg comments will mean anything. The cow is already out of the barn - they are so late to the game.
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Post by Apple II+ on Mar 6, 2013 6:07:50 GMT -8
(edit: I think you meant FY2023 net income, not EPS.) And if AAPL were to have a 10 P/E at that time, then it's market cap would be 2.72T. It's pretty staggering to imagine. By then S&P market cap would presumably be a lot higher than the 13.7T it stands at today. To get at it another way, in 10 years, what's reasonable for total S&P market cap and AAPL percentage of the S&P? Would an S&P market cap of 30T with AAPL making up 9% be out of the question? Because it would take something like that. Or a 5 P/E for a 1.36T market cap and 4.5% of the S&P. Maybe that's why we've been having so much P/E compression for so long. I think we must look at the world not just the US equities market. Presently the size of all world markets including Derivatives is $791 trillion. If that market grows 5% a year for 10 years it will be worth about 1288 trillion. If Apple was worth $3 trillion it is not a big deal. Also presently the biggest company in the world is Aramco and it is worth $10 trillion. I agree that when comparing valuation, we need to look beyond U.S. equity markets, including private companies like Aramco. But there's no guarantee that the gap between value and price can close or even narrow. Apple may be worth more than its market cap, but it may always be so. That's what I fear. If it means AAPL would be 9% of the S&P 500, then I wonder if market forces will let the price rise enough to close the gap with that value. Apple may remain mispriced indefinitely. The endgame may be the minimum price to keep Apple public, or even going private.
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Post by appledoc on Mar 6, 2013 6:14:09 GMT -8
Just lost power in the snow storm on the east. Wonderful. What state? Virginia. It's supposed to snow continually until tonight. I took all my food that needs to be cold and threw it in the snow. Re: downgrades--> decent green day would be very bullish IMO. I still would want to break the 652 to 594 to 555 trendline and break above the weekly SMA100, but this is a start.
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Post by prazan on Mar 6, 2013 6:17:52 GMT -8
Just lost power in the snow storm on the east. Wonderful. Snowquester! Futures green fifteen minutes before open.
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Post by lovemyipad on Mar 6, 2013 6:25:51 GMT -8
You mean the gap at 438-441 or so from last Friday (Mar. 1)? That's what I'm seeing. Yes, *if* we can get that high... I'm watching for "gap and crap." We shall see... AAPL DAILY:
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Post by The Big Toe on Mar 6, 2013 6:26:09 GMT -8
IMHO I don't think this story will have that much impact on AAPL. It may be a good warning that retail investors that do not have a good grasp on how options operate (me!) should not place heavy bets via options. Would less players in the option arena help or hurt AAPL?
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Post by ibuyer on Mar 6, 2013 6:37:21 GMT -8
You mean the gap at 438-441 or so from last Friday (Mar. 1)? That's what I'm seeing. Yes, *if* we can get that high... I'm watching for "gap and crap." We shall see... AAPL DAILY: flat.
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Post by rob_london on Mar 6, 2013 6:47:33 GMT -8
Citi lowering 2Q12 iPhone sales to 34M and 3Q13 to 25M Revenue estimate of $40.4B is less than AAPL guidance of $41-$43B 2014 EPS: $44.78
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Post by ibuyer on Mar 6, 2013 6:50:29 GMT -8
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Post by mtjs on Mar 6, 2013 7:11:36 GMT -8
Heh citi-fun They want to drive it just that little bit more lower. At the most WE have an identity crisis
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Post by Apple II+ on Mar 6, 2013 7:21:30 GMT -8
A headline (I won't post the link):
JEFF GUNDLACH: Apple's Plunge Has Singlehandedly Debunked The Efficient Markets Hypothesis
I agree that Apple's plunge debunks the efficient market hypothesis, but, IMO, the drop and the constant mispricing and "undervaluation" of AAPL are what do it.
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Post by sponge on Mar 6, 2013 7:30:25 GMT -8
It seems our stock is used as a daytrading machine with each piece of news as a reason to buy and sell, irrespective of what the overall market is doing.
High volume to me indicates that there is a constant battle between the bulls and bears.
If we close above 425 I will call it a victory
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Post by fas550 on Mar 6, 2013 7:46:46 GMT -8
Given the available facts (PO guidance, supplier guidance) this just confirms what we have seen coming. The visibility in the next qtr and possible the one after show numbers falling. Beyond that there is not visibility. Basically earnings aren't going to turn this around. It's probably going to take one of the many other possibilities kicked around on the board. Off topic a bit I am really puzzled as to why they don't acquire Cirrus Logic. They make all the audio chips in most if not all the products. Apple is Cirrus #1 customer (about 60% of rev) with Samsung #2. They are recognized as have the best audio chips in the industry (great quality with low power requirement). Market cap about 1.5B today. Company healthy good margins, good management and a philosophy on product similar to Apple in many ways. Just thinking aloud.
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Post by The Big Toe on Mar 6, 2013 7:47:31 GMT -8
It seems our stock is used as a daytrading machine with each piece of news as a reason to buy and sell, irrespective of what the overall market is doing. High volume to me indicates that there is a constant battle between the bulls and bears. If we close above 425 I will call it a victory At least for right now, it looks like AAPL is trading in line with AMZN, GOOG, and MSFT. So I don't think it is the usuall FUD that is hitting AAPL.
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Post by sponge on Mar 6, 2013 7:53:30 GMT -8
It seems our stock is used as a daytrading machine with each piece of news as a reason to buy and sell, irrespective of what the overall market is doing. High volume to me indicates that there is a constant battle between the bulls and bears. If we close above 425 I will call it a victory At least for right now, it looks like AAPL is trading in line with AMZN, GOOG, and MSFT. So I don't think it is the usuall FUD that is hitting AAPL. I saw that. They all went up yesterday and no one was patient about cashing in profits I do agree that for the stock to rebound it may need more then earnings. If we don't get a new product this year and the dividend increase is minor (less then 25%), then we will have a hard time getting to $600 by end of the year. The buyback could inject some fuel into the stock, but it will depend when it is announced and how much. I still think Apple will wait until July.
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 893
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Post by Ted on Mar 6, 2013 7:56:54 GMT -8
Given the available facts (PO guidance, supplier guidance) this just confirms what we have seen coming. The visibility in the next qtr and possible the one after show numbers falling. Beyond that there is not visibility. Basically earnings aren't going to turn this around. It's probably going to take one of the many other possibilities kicked around on the board. Off topic a bit I am really puzzled as to why they don't acquire Cirrus Logic. They make all the audio chips in most if not all the products. Apple is Cirrus #1 customer (about 60% of rev) with Samsung #2. They are recognized as have the best audio chips in the industry (great quality with low power requirement). Market cap about 1.5B today. Company healthy good margins, good management and a philosophy on product similar to Apple in many ways. Just thinking aloud. I'm sorry, Fas, but you're saying that because Citi has the ability to know that demand tapers off after the X-mas quarter, that "earnings aren't going to turn this around?" What if guidance for the following quarter is decent or good? What if Citi is wrong and we get results at the top of the guidance range? I guess I don't appreciate the knowing tone of your comment and its negativity... We get enough of that sort of regurg already... Nothing personal, of course.
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Post by sponge on Mar 6, 2013 8:11:17 GMT -8
Ted
I think fas was making the point, that strong numbers alone in April and July may not be enough. It will take sentiment to change and that will require more then just earnings.
I doubt Citi really knows that Apple will have weak numbers.
Right now they are growing with the market in smart phones and WS does not like the fact that the smartphone market is slowing down in growth.
What WS fails to realize is that Apple is slowly eating away at Android market share. And when the 4S becomes free and the 5 is cut in half, that trend will pick up steam. That in itself is not enough to give Apple more then 20% growth. WS needs a new product and Apple will release it when it is ready.
I have said in the past. Apple is in control and they have plenty of time to perfect what they are working on.
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Post by fas550 on Mar 6, 2013 8:17:31 GMT -8
Given the available facts (PO guidance, supplier guidance) this just confirms what we have seen coming. The visibility in the next qtr and possible the one after show numbers falling. Beyond that there is not visibility. Basically earnings aren't going to turn this around. It's probably going to take one of the many other possibilities kicked around on the board. Off topic a bit I am really puzzled as to why they don't acquire Cirrus Logic. They make all the audio chips in most if not all the products. Apple is Cirrus #1 customer (about 60% of rev) with Samsung #2. They are recognized as have the best audio chips in the industry (great quality with low power requirement). Market cap about 1.5B today. Company healthy good margins, good management and a philosophy on product similar to Apple in many ways. Just thinking aloud. I'm sorry, Fas, but you're saying that because Citi has the ability to know that demand tapers off after the X-mas quarter, that "earnings aren't going to turn this around?" What if guidance for the following quarter is decent or good? What if Citi is wrong and we get results at the top of the guidance range? I guess I don't appreciate the knowing tone of your comment and its negativity... We get enough of that sort of regurg already... Nothing personal, of course. No offense taken. Yes we all know demand is down after Xmas and I didn't take the citi report a highlight of simply what is normal. What I was saying in summary: we can't rely on earnings probably in the next 6 mos to pull us out of this slump. A carrier deal, new product, cash action etc... Yes. Yes sorry for being negative lately. I can handle drops, even extended period drops but usually because there is some key potential: Not seeing much of that around. Perhaps some are right and this is just the norm of turning to a value stock. I can see arguments on both sides.
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Post by nathanstevens on Mar 6, 2013 8:17:32 GMT -8
This subscription music service idea sounds pretty cool. For instance, Situational awareness that would cue up a batch of songs for when you arrive at the gym. $10ish/month to compete with Pandora and Spotify. Recent discussions with TC and Cue. allthingsd.com/20130306/jimmy-iovine-explains-his-60-million-music-plan/?mod=tweetVideo is long but you can skip to 18-20 minute mark for the concept. This would make good use of the NC data center. 5% of 500M iTunes accounts is 25M users. 25M x $120/ year = 3B. Fun to dream.
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