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Post by phoebear611 on Mar 14, 2013 2:14:16 GMT -8
So first thing out of the gate this morning on business news is that AAPL must be somewhat frazzled given that Schiller is actually making comments about Samsung's phone. No matter what AAPL does the media spins it in a negative way. Instead of saying, "Hey maybe AAPL has a point!" The commentary was, "Hey it's shocking they acknowledge even the very existence of Samsung. It shows the pressure their under."
Unreal...and again, frustrating.
And Scott Redler just tweeted:
Today Samsung releases their new phone. After using a $400 million ad blitz to show creativity and relevance. aapl asleep at the wheel
And a few moments later tweeted this:
So far Tim Cook missed 2 earnings reports. Couldn't meet initial supply constraints. Lead 2 snoozefest conferences. That's Y people r upset
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Post by appledoc on Mar 14, 2013 2:48:17 GMT -8
I agree with the second tweet. Not the first.
Like Mav always says, Redler is a technicals guy. He should stick to that.
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Post by fas550 on Mar 14, 2013 2:54:14 GMT -8
Sentiment is sentiment. Right now the positive sentiment is with Samsung. When the media in the same article highlights SS flag ship phone and states SS sells more phones than Apple without noting the fact that flagship phone does not, they are clearly not interested in facts. Facts often getting the way of the purpose of the article :-) Right now the media is building up SS and we will simply have to wait till the tide turns and the media decides to tear them down.
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Post by appledoc on Mar 14, 2013 3:09:38 GMT -8
What angers me is that American media props up Samsung while they try to tear down Apple. How about some patriotism for once?
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Post by yellowhandman on Mar 14, 2013 3:55:55 GMT -8
Surprisingly green in pre-market, despite this being Samsung Day. Maybe Phil's Bloomberg interview sent a message that Apple is ready to fight.
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Post by appledoc on Mar 14, 2013 4:01:58 GMT -8
AAPL upgraded and AMZN downgraded.
Sign of the apocolypse.
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Post by qualitywte on Mar 14, 2013 4:23:03 GMT -8
Sentiment is sentiment. Right now the positive sentiment is with Samsung. When the media in the same article highlights SS flag ship phone and states SS sells more phones than Apple without noting the fact that flagship phone does not, they are clearly not interested in facts. Facts often getting the way of the purpose of the article :-) Right now the media is building up SS and we will simply have to wait till the tide turns and the media decides to tear them down. The media wont let the facts get in the way of what they see as a good story. How about some analyst/reporter following up on Shiller's comment that the switch rate from SS to Apple is 4 times as in the other direction? If Apple's sitting on research that shows that, of course they don't want to change their strategy, who in their right mind would? Apple is not going to start making crappy products just so they can get media attention like SS is getting right now. |
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Post by CdnPhoto on Mar 14, 2013 4:42:45 GMT -8
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Post by lance on Mar 14, 2013 4:43:13 GMT -8
www.cnbc.com/id/100552127China Mobile deal clearly is close to ready to go as soon as the network is up to par with 4G. This is the best news story I have read about the Company in months and the reason I think AAPL is up in pre.
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Post by lance on Mar 14, 2013 4:50:14 GMT -8
Sadly the network wont be ready till end of 2013 for 4G. Well in 9 months we will have a good quarter that isn't too long to suffer from weak earnings reports.
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Post by macwire on Mar 14, 2013 5:01:53 GMT -8
Lends strongly to the hypothesis that this will be a trading range year. Or if you are big into Weinstein we could be basing awhile - stage 1?
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Post by yellowhandman on Mar 14, 2013 5:03:00 GMT -8
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Post by appledoc on Mar 14, 2013 5:58:25 GMT -8
CM is a long, long term addition to revenue and income. It took 3 months to come into supply and demand balance for the iPhone 5. Similar time frame for the iPad mini. Adding CM is a huge plus, but the big benefits to top and bottom line will come years down the road as supply chain inadequacies improve.
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Post by sponge on Mar 14, 2013 6:31:13 GMT -8
It is a beatiful start to the day.
Went ahead and bought one more 550 call at 10.44.
I am seeing more 5s in the wild and the video of the G4 does not look impressive. You can't put lipstick on the same pig. Phil is correct. The Android OS sucks and consumers are voting with their wallets.
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Post by sponge on Mar 14, 2013 7:37:49 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Mar 14, 2013 7:46:46 GMT -8
It is a beatiful start to the day. Went ahead and bought one more 550 call at 10.44. I am seeing more 5s in the wild and the video of the G4 does not look impressive. You can't put lipstick on the same pig. Phil is correct. The Android OS sucks and consumers are voting with their wallets. Why not sell 600 calls against this? You're lowering your risk, while still allowing for 1000% return. |
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Post by sponge on Mar 14, 2013 7:55:16 GMT -8
It is a beatiful start to the day. Went ahead and bought one more 550 call at 10.44. I am seeing more 5s in the wild and the video of the G4 does not look impressive. You can't put lipstick on the same pig. Phil is correct. The Android OS sucks and consumers are voting with their wallets. Why not sell 600 calls against this? You're lowering your risk, while still allowing for 1000% return. If aapl hits 700 I get 900%+ return. Not sure how you get to 1000% by selling a 600 call which sells for 5.30. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 14, 2013 7:59:27 GMT -8
Why not sell 600 calls against this? You're lowering your risk, while still allowing for 1000% return. If aapl hits 700 I get 900%+ return. Not sure how you get to 1000% by selling a 600 call which sells for 5.30. Because you're lowering your cost for the spread to just over $5...and the max return is $50, so 1000%. It's probably a little less than 1000% as I believe the spread will cost a little more than $5, but it's close. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 14, 2013 8:00:44 GMT -8
Also, you get a near 1000% return with Apple at $600, not a 900% return at $700...yes, if Apple hits $1000 by year end, you'll be much better off with a straight call, but the chances of that happening are slim to none.
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Post by mace on Mar 14, 2013 8:07:22 GMT -8
If the expected outlook is a sudden climb post dividend increase, couldn't it better to sell the $600 call then?
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Post by sponge on Mar 14, 2013 8:10:00 GMT -8
Also, you get a near 1000% return with Apple at $600, not a 900% return at $700...yes, if Apple hits $1000 by year end, you'll be much better off with a straight call, but the chances of that happening are slim to none. While in the shower I figured it.  . Thanx |
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Post by sponge on Mar 14, 2013 8:17:42 GMT -8
If aapl trades above $600 would my shares be called away? Then I would be forced to exercise my 550 calls. Right?
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Post by Deleted on Mar 14, 2013 8:18:24 GMT -8
If the expected outlook is a sudden climb post dividend increase, couldn't it better to sell the $600 call then? Well yes, assuming of course the dividend and/or share buyback is large enough to please Wall Street and therefore the stock price. And that it happens in the next few months. What if he waits for a better price to sell the $600 call but it never comes? |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 14, 2013 8:24:39 GMT -8
If aapl trades above $600 would my shares be called away? Then I would be forced to exercise my 550 calls. Right? If Apple trades below $550, you make nothing...but you'd only lose the $5.xx that you paid for the spread, less than the $10.50 or so you'd lose right now with the straight $550 call. If Apple is at $580 for example, you'd make $30 off your $550 call and the $600 call you sold would expire worthless, so you'd be up $30. If Apple ended anywhere above $600, you'd make $50, and it wouldn't matter how far above $600, your gain is capped at $50. For example, if Apple ends at $700, your $550 call would be worth $150, but your $600 call you sold would be worth $100, so you'd be positive $50. I would recommend selling both sides of the spread a few weeks or months before expiration date if they're in the money, then you don't risk someone exercising the $600 calls and forcing you to provide them 100 shares of Apple at $600. It can happen if Apple is way in the money and someone wants to get the shares to get the dividend. |
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Post by tuffett on Mar 14, 2013 8:28:22 GMT -8
Why not sell 600 calls against this? You're lowering your risk, while still allowing for 1000% return. If aapl hits 700 I get 900%+ return. Not sure how you get to 1000% by selling a 600 call which sells for 5.30. Simple mathematics. You should learn about spreads - great tools to minimize costs and risk. |
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Post by appledoc on Mar 14, 2013 8:33:49 GMT -8
If aapl trades above $600 would my shares be called away? Then I would be forced to exercise my 550 calls. Right? If it traded WAY above $600 on the last day before ex-dividend they would probably get called away and you would have to sell the 550s to cover the cost. There's a thread in one of the other forums that discusses this. |
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Post by ibuyer on Mar 14, 2013 8:36:00 GMT -8
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Post by sponge on Mar 14, 2013 8:57:21 GMT -8
Once again aapl and goog are going in opposite directions My option position is so small that I will be happy with my $100k profit in Jan. Will stick with good old stock and not worry about price and time decay. Much too busy to focus on managing all the possibilities. Should be noted most here got whiped out despite bringing guns to the gun fight and managing risk. All I lost was paper profits which will come back when we get to $800. Thanx for the explanation to those who contributed. |
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Post by bud777 on Mar 14, 2013 9:14:20 GMT -8
It's more like bringing a gun to an ambush. I am never sure of the implications of recommending a "dummies" book to someone. I find them useful, if somewhat challenging, . When I want to recommend them, I usually say something like "Here is a book I found useful" |
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Post by Lstream on Mar 14, 2013 9:21:26 GMT -8
Sometimes in this world, it seems like attempting to offer help and advice is like playing Mozart to a cow and then asking for a concert review.
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